1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core View of the Report Since July, the stock - bond "seesaw" effect has become more prominent, with the equity market rising and the bond market weakening. The current market is mainly driven by policy expectations, market sentiment, and institutional behavior, and there is a certain deviation from the fundamentals. In the short - term, the appropriate support from the central bank, the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, and the buying behavior of allocation disks at key points may form the potential boundary for interest rate hikes. In the long - term, asset pricing will return to the fundamental logic. It is expected that 1.80% may be the temporary ceiling for the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate, and currently, the interest rate may be in the ceiling - building stage. The interest rate does not have the risk of a trend - upward increase [2][27][47]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 From the Stock - Bond "Seesaw" - Since July, the stock - bond and commodity - bond "seesaw" effects have been significant. In early August, there was a short - term "stock - bond double - bull" situation, which then returned to the "seesaw" pattern. On August 18, the Shanghai Composite Index closed above 3700 points, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose by 2.5BP to 1.77% [10]. - The reasons for the more prominent "seesaw" effect recently are: the low and stable capital interest rate restricts the bond - buying power; the domestic economy is stable with progress, and the policy has a certain tolerance for capital - market fluctuations; incremental policies boost market risk appetite, and the bond market is more sensitive to negative news [13]. - Historically, in the short - term, the stock market rise is based on policy expectations, driving asset re - allocation and changes in bond - market institutional behavior. In the long - term, both stock and bond pricing return to the fundamental logic. The two long - lasting "seesaw" periods (2016 - 2018, 2020) were accompanied by fundamental improvements, while the shorter ones (2022 end, 2024 Q3) were more about policy expectations and "strong expectations" of fundamental repair [14][17]. 3.2 Interest Rate "Has a Floor" The market generally believes that the downward space for the bond market is limited. The reasons are: the expectation of marginal improvement in the fundamentals is strong, reducing the urgency for monetary policy to strengthen, and the probability of the capital interest rate breaking through downward is low; the buying power of allocation disks has weakened compared to last year. Some rural commercial banks may have floating losses in their OCI accounts, and insurance companies may reduce bond allocation and increase equity investment [3][20]. 3.3 Where is the Temporary "Ceiling" of the Interest Rate? - **"Negative Feedback" Concerns and the Central Bank's Timely Support**: This year, the bond market has experienced several rounds of rising concerns about redemption "negative feedback". Whenever the bond interest rate reaches a temporary high or the selling power of trading disks such as funds increases, the central bank will increase its open - market operations within 1 - 4 days. For example, in mid - March and late July, the central bank increased reverse - repurchase operations to support the bond market [28]. - **Enhanced Coordination between Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: In the short - term, it is mainly reflected in coordinating with the concentrated issuance of government bonds. For example, on August 8, the central bank carried out a 7000 - billion - yuan 3 - month term repurchase operation to maintain liquidity. In the long - term, considering the balance and sustainability of fiscal interest payments and revenues, the coordination of the two policies is reasonable [36]. - **Support from the Buying Power of Allocation Disks at Key Points**: Although the strength of allocation disks has weakened this year, when the bond market rises to key points, the buying power of allocation disks such as insurance and rural commercial banks will increase, suppressing the adjustment space. It is expected that the reduction of insurance's predetermined interest rate in September may increase the bond - allocation space [43]. - **The Interest Rate May Have Reached a Temporary Ceiling**: On August 18, the bond - market adjustment intensified. The yields of 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds rose to 1.39%, 1.64%, 1.79%, and 2.11% respectively. It is expected that 1.80% may be the temporary ceiling for the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate. In the short - term, the entry of allocation disks and the central bank's support will limit the bond - market adjustment. In the long - term, due to the structural repair pressure on the fundamentals, the interest rate does not have the risk of a trend - upward increase [47].