本文源自：智通财经网 国信证券此前指，制冷剂配额约束收紧为长期趋势方向，在此背景下，看好R32、R134a、R125等主流 制冷剂景气度将延续，价格长期仍有较大上行空间；对应制冷剂配额龙头企业有望保持长期高盈利水 平。此外看好液冷产业对氟化液与制冷剂需求的提升。建议关注PVDF、PTFE等含氟高分子价格修复。 智通财经获悉，东岳集团(00189)涨近6%，截至发稿，涨5.78%，报14.09港元，成交额3.02亿港元。 消息面上，据氟务在线，随着春节停产企业陆续复产，市场流动性有望在下周逐步回归，而春旺需求预 计将在3月后陆续释放，当前价格在库存低位与看涨预期的双重支撑下维持高位盘整。展望后市，出口 市场订单执行持续推进，叠加四月制冷展临近，多重利好有望为制冷剂市场带来新的变动契机，部分品 种或迎新一轮价格支撑。 ...

国信证券此前指，制冷剂配额约束收紧为长期趋势方向，在此背景下，看好R32、R134a、R125等主流 制冷剂景气度将延续，价格长期仍有较大上行空间；对应制冷剂配额龙头企业有望保持长期高盈利水 平。此外看好液冷产业对氟化液与制冷剂需求的提升。建议关注PVDF、PTFE等含氟高分子价格修复。 东岳集团(00189)涨近6%，截至发稿，涨5.78%，报14.09港元，成交额3.02亿港元。 消息面上，据氟务在线，随着春节停产企业陆续复产，市场流动性有望在下周逐步回归，而春旺需求预 计将在3月后陆续释放，当前价格在库存低位与看涨预期的双重支撑下维持高位盘整。展望后市，出口 市场订单执行持续推进，叠加四月制冷展临近，多重利好有望为制冷剂市场带来新的变动契机，部分品 种或迎新一轮价格支撑。 ...

2026 年 01 月 25 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李振方 S0350524080003 | | | lizf@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 2025 年公司归母净利润同比大幅提升，看好制 冷剂景气持续 ——巨化股份（600160）2025 年业绩预增点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 表现 | | | 2026/01/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 巨化股份 | | 4.4% | 9.9% | 55.6% | | 沪深 300 | | 1.8% | 2.1% | 23.6% | | 市场数据 | 2026/01/23 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, driven by the high demand for refrigerants, with a year-on-year growth of 161% [1] - The refrigerant market is expected to remain strong, supported by demand from downstream sectors such as air conditioning and automotive [4] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 41 billion, 53 billion, and 61 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, indicating a robust growth trajectory [5] Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 5.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6% [1] - The company's gross profit margin improved to 28.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.7 percentage points [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.52 RMB, with a projected growth in EPS for the following years [5] Market Performance - The average price of refrigerants has increased, with R22, R32, R125, and R134a prices rising by 9%, 13%, 7%, and 11% respectively since the beginning of the year [4] - The company's market capitalization is approximately 68.47 billion RMB, with a target price set at 31.92 RMB [9] Segment Performance - The refrigerant segment saw a year-on-year sales increase of 4%, despite a seasonal decline in Q1 [2] - The fluoropolymer segment faced temporary pressure, with a year-on-year sales decline of 7% [2] - The basic chemical products segment benefited from improved caustic soda prices, leading to a revenue increase of 7% year-on-year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, driven by the recovery in the refrigerant market, and maintains a "buy" rating due to positive outlooks for future performance [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The total revenue for 2024 reached 24.5 billion yuan, representing an 18% year-over-year increase [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.96 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 108%, and a non-recurring profit of 1.90 billion yuan, reflecting a 131% increase [1]. - In Q4 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 700 million yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 257% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 66% [1]. Group 2: Segment Performance - The refrigerant segment saw a 23% year-over-year increase in external sales volume to 353,000 tons, primarily due to the consolidation of Feiyuan Chemical and rising prices under quota systems, with average prices increasing by 33% to 26,800 yuan per ton [2]. - The fluoropolymer segment experienced an 8% year-over-year increase in sales volume to 46,000 tons, but faced price pressure, with average prices declining by 15% to 38,000 yuan per ton [2]. - The fine fluorochemical segment reported a remarkable 255% year-over-year increase in sales volume to 5,000 tons, with revenue growing by 99% to 280 million yuan [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The refrigerant market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by demand from downstream sectors such as air conditioning and automotive, alongside tight supply conditions for second and third-generation refrigerants [3]. - The company is set to benefit from new projects, including FEP, Juxin cooling liquids, and fourth-generation refrigerants, which are anticipated to enhance integrated and scale advantages [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its profit forecasts upward, expecting net profits of 4.1 billion yuan, 5.3 billion yuan, and 6.1 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting increases of 8% and 14% for 2025-2026 compared to previous estimates [4]. - The target price for the company is set at 30.4 yuan based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025, up from a previous target of 28.2 yuan [4].