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原油成品油早报-20251112
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 04:21
Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices remained volatile. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 next year. The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels due to increased imports and reduced refining activities, with the increase higher than market expectations. Western sanctions on Russia and Iran have led to a record high in on - board oil storage, and Russian oil in the Indian market has traded at the largest discount in nearly a year. This week, refining profits in European and American refineries rebounded, and Western sanctions and the extended maintenance of Dangote Refinery supported the gasoline and diesel cracking sentiment. The domestic fundamentals are neutral. The global fundamental surplus and sanctions factors support the Dubai market, and Brent crude oil maintains a volatile pattern, expected to fluctuate in the range of $55 - 65 in Q4 [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - From November 5th to 11th, 2025, WTI increased by $0.91, BRENT by $1.10, and DUBAI by $0.59. Other indicators also showed corresponding changes [3] - From November 5th to 11th, 2025, SC decreased by 3.00, OMAN increased by 0.99. Domestic gasoline increased by 20.00, and domestic diesel increased by 5.00. Other related indicators also had corresponding changes [3] - From November 5th to 11th, 2025, Japanese naphtha - BRT decreased by 13.59, Singapore 380 - BRT decreased by 9.96. Other related indicators also showed corresponding changes [3] 2. Daily News - Germany requires SEFE to terminate the long - term natural gas import agreement with Russia. Canceling the contract may cost about 10 billion euros (11.6 billion US dollars), and the annual import volume is about 2.9 million tons with a contract term until 2040 [4] - The key indicator of the North Sea crude oil market has fallen to a low point in more than a year, reflecting concerns about future supply surplus. The international energy agency has predicted a record supply surplus of crude oil [4] - Russia is willing to discuss the preparation of a summit with the US if the US resumes the proposal. Russia is also willing to communicate regarding Trump's doubts about Russia's nuclear test, and Venezuela has not sought military support from Russia [5] - Russia's seaborne crude oil exports have reached a two - month low, and about 35% of the tankers' final destinations are unknown, with most likely heading to Asia [5] 3. Inventory - In the week ending October 31st, US crude oil exports increased by 0.6 barrels/day to 4.367 million barrels/day, domestic production increased by 0.7 barrels to 13.651 million barrels/day, commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 5.202 million barrels to 421 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 498,000 barrels to 409.6 million barrels [6] - From October 31st to November 6th, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline was 10.5757 million tons, down 0.4%, and diesel was 12.8962 million tons, down 1.82% [7] 4. Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated. OPEC+ suspended production increases in Q1 next year. The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased. Western sanctions on Russia and Iran affected the market. European and American refinery profits rebounded, and the domestic fundamentals are neutral. Brent crude oil is expected to fluctuate between $55 - 65 in Q4 [7]