Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The recent oil price has entered a volatile pattern. Although the mainstream market expects a huge inventory build - up in Q1, due to the dual - differentiation between the sanctioned oil and compliant oil markets, the market is relatively fragmented. The market doesn't think a single inventory build - up will pressure the absolute oil price, but rather requires a visible increase in compliant oil inventories (i.e., significant increases in European and American inventories), which explains the relative strength of the absolute price and the near - term spread [2] - The oil price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and a short position in the medium - term is recommended [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for January 2026 delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 63 cents to $58.25 per barrel, a decrease of 1.07%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for February delivery fell 55 cents to $61.94 per barrel, a decrease of 0.88% [1] - For the week ending December 5 in the US, API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.779 million barrels (expected - 1.75 million barrels, previous 2.48 million barrels). Gasoline inventory increased by 6.955 million barrels (expected 2.343 million barrels, previous 3.136 million barrels). Refined oil inventory increased by 1.027 million barrels (expected 1.478 million barrels, previous 2.884 million barrels). Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 47 thousand barrels (previous - 89 thousand barrels). Heating oil inventory increased by 296 thousand barrels (previous 30 thousand barrels) [1] - US President Trump will hold a rally in Pennsylvania on local Tuesday to defend his economic achievements and ease voters' anxiety about rising costs. Republicans are preparing for a tough fight to retain control of Congress in next year's mid - term elections. The rally will focus on falling gasoline and egg prices and tax cuts passed this year [1] - In the week ending November 4, oil speculators reduced their net short positions in WTI crude oil by 19,142 contracts to 4,518 contracts [1] - US Treasury Secretary Besent had a talk with the Ukrainian Prime Minister and her team. He emphasized President Trump's commitment to ensuring lasting peace in Ukraine and discussed the Treasury's sanctions on two major Russian oil giants, Lukoil and Rosneft [1] - The EIA Short - Term Energy Outlook Report: It is expected that the Brent crude oil price will be $68.91 per barrel in 2025 (previously $68.76 per barrel) and $55.08 per barrel in 2026 (previously $54.92 per barrel). The expected WTI crude oil price is $65.32 per barrel in 2025 (previously $65.15 per barrel) and $51.42 per barrel in 2026 (previously $51.26 per barrel). The expected average daily US crude oil production in December is 13.85 million barrels (11 月: 13.86 million barrels), and 13.71 million barrels in January [1] Investment Logic - The dual - differentiation between the sanctioned oil and compliant oil markets leads to market fragmentation. The market believes that only a build - up of compliant oil inventories will pressure the absolute oil price, which explains the strength of the absolute price and the near - term spread [2] Strategy - The oil price will fluctuate in the short - term, and a short position is advisable in the medium - term [3] Risks - Downside risks: Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: Tightening of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) supply, large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [4]