Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. Core Views - The oil market is expected to face increasing supply pressure in the medium to long term. In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain weak, with Brent crude oil expected to trade in the range of $65 - $67 per barrel [2]. - The asphalt market is expected to be in a state of weak oscillation. The supply - demand balance is becoming more relaxed, and the valuation is relatively high [4][5][6]. - The fuel oil market, both high - sulfur and low - sulfur, is expected to be weak. High - sulfur fuel oil is affected by high inventories, and low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and lack of demand drivers [6][8][9]. - The PX and PTA markets are expected to oscillate. Their prices are greatly influenced by oil prices and the macro - economic situation, but the supply - demand contradiction of PTA will be alleviated later [10][12][13]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to oscillate in the short term due to the balance between supply reduction and demand increase [13][15]. - The short - fiber market is expected to oscillate, and its processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with prices following raw material trends [14][15][17]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to oscillate. The market supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season, with processing fees expected to fluctuate at a low level [17][18][19]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets are expected to be weak. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand lacks support. Styrene may face inventory accumulation pressure [19][20][22]. - The propylene market is expected to be in a state of relaxation, with increasing supply and poor downstream product profits [24][25]. - The PVC market is expected to be weak in the medium term, facing new production capacity pressure and weak demand, but with short - term observation recommended [26][27]. - The caustic soda market is expected to improve in the medium term, with a recommendation to buy on dips [28][29]. - The plastic PP market is expected to be weak in the short term and a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended in the medium term [30][31]. - The log market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with a recommendation to observe mainly, and aggressive investors can consider a small - scale long - position layout [32][33]. - The offset - printing paper market has a pattern of oversupply, and it is recommended to short - sell the 01 contract near the lower limit of the spot market price [33][34]. - The pulp market has a certain degree of support below, but the high port inventory and weak demand suppress the rebound space. It is recommended to try a small - scale long - position in the SP main 11 contract [34][35][37]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market: hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract and consider taking profits on short positions in the NR main 11 contract [37][38][39]. - The butadiene rubber market: hold short positions in the BR main 11 contract [40][41][42]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Crude Oil**: WTI2510 contract closed at $62.68, down $0.89 per barrel (-1.40%); Brent2511 contract closed at $66.68, down $0.76 per barrel (-1.13%); SC2511 contract closed at 491.2 yuan/barrel, down 5.1 yuan, and dropped 7.6 yuan to 483.6 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Asphalt**: BU2511 closed at 3421 points (+0.00%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3372 points (-0.06%) at night [4]. - **Fuel Oil**: FU01 contract closed at 2782 (-1.28%) at night; LU11 closed at 3370 (-1.03%) at night [6]. - **PX & PTA**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6594 (-1.35%) during the day and 6600 (+0.09%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4604 (-1.33%) during the day and 4602 (-0.04%) at night [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4257 (-0.26%) during the day and 4249 (-0.19%) at night [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6284 (-0.95%) during the day and 6288 (+0.06%) at night [14]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5762 (-0.93%) during the day and 5758 (-0.07%) at night [17]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5966 (-0.55%) during the day and 5954 (-0.2%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6992 (-1.16%) during the day and 6971 (-0.3%) at night [19]. - **Propylene**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6388 (-0.56%) during the day and 6393 (+0.08%) at night [24]. - **PVC**: The domestic PVC powder market price increased slightly, with mainstream markets rising by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [26]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong decreased, while the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda remained stable [28]. - **Plastic PP**: The price of LLDPE in some regions decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; the price of PP in some regions decreased or remained stable [30]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs remained stable, and the 11 - month contract oscillated downward, closing at 801.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.87% [31]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: The market price of high - white offset - printing paper in Shandong remained stable, and the OP2601 contract in the futures market rose 8 yuan/ton at night [33]. - **Pulp**: The futures market declined slightly, and the prices of various types of pulp in the spot market were stable or had slight fluctuations [34][35]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The RU main 01 contract rose 10 points (+0.06%); the NR main 11 contract rose 60 points (+0.49%); the BR main 11 contract rose 50 points (+0.44%) [37][38][40]. Related Information - **Crude Oil**: The central bank is expected to keep the LPR unchanged; some countries recognized the State of Palestine, causing an angry response from Israel; the number of US drilling rigs increased [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: Rain in Shandong affected demand, and contracts were being executed; in the Yangtze River Delta, demand was average, and some low - price resources were released; in South China, typhoons affected demand, but some social inventories had no pressure [4][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: China's fuel oil imports decreased in August, and some Russian refineries were affected by attacks [6][7][8]. - **PX & PTA**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and polyester decreased slightly, and some PX and PTA plants had maintenance plans [10][11][12]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in China increased slightly, and some plants had restart or maintenance plans [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The sales of polyester yarn were average, and the operating rates of downstream industries remained stable [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: The export prices of polyester bottle - chips decreased slightly, and the operating rate of bottle - chips decreased [17][18]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The operating rates of petroleum benzene and its downstream industries changed, and some pure benzene and styrene plants had maintenance or restart plans [19][20][21]. - **Propylene**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased, and some plants restarted or were under maintenance [24][25]. - **PVC**: There was new production capacity pressure, and exports were expected to weaken [26][27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The purchase price of a large alumina plant in Shandong decreased, and the price of liquid chlorine in some regions increased [28][29]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of major producers increased, and there was new production capacity expected [30][31]. - **Log**: China's coniferous log imports decreased in August, and the funds of construction sites changed [32]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: The production of double - sided offset paper increased, and the inventory of producers increased [33][34]. - **Pulp**: A special paper production line of a company was put into operation, and a pulp mill extended its maintenance time [37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Jilin Petrochemical trial - produced a new type of rubber [39][41]. Logical Analysis - **Crude Oil**: OPEC increased production in August and September, the peak demand season in the Middle East ended, and the supply pressure increased. In the short term, oil prices are expected to be weak [2]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are falling, production is increasing, and the supply - demand balance is becoming more relaxed, with a relatively high valuation [4][5][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Russian refineries are gradually recovering, high - sulfur exports in the Middle East are increasing, and demand is weakening [8][9]. - **PX & PTA**: The macro - economic situation is weak, and the supply and demand of PX and PTA have decreased. The supply - demand contradiction of PTA will be alleviated later [12][13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply has decreased and demand has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The plant operating rate has increased, downstream demand is weak, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: The market supply is abundant, demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [17][18][19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to increase, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak; the supply of styrene may increase, and there is inventory accumulation pressure [20][21][22]. - **Propylene**: The propane market is in the peak season, the supply of propylene is increasing, and downstream product profits are poor [24][25]. - **PVC**: There is new production capacity pressure, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline [26][27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The pressure on the spot market in Shandong has been released, and the medium - term supply - demand situation is expected to improve [28][29]. - **Plastic PP**: The demand is in the peak season, but there is new production capacity expected, and the cost support is weak [30][31]. - **Log**: The supply and demand are both weak, with supply expected to contract later [32][33]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand is weak, and cost support is limited [33][34]. - **Pulp**: The macro - economic situation has improved, but high inventory and weak demand suppress the rebound space [34][35][37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The inventory situation of different types of rubber is different, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of the BR contract has decreased, and short - positions are recommended to be held [40][41][42]. Trading Strategies - **Crude Oil**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are weak; options: observe [1][4]. - **Asphalt**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates weakly; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: observe; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 at high prices [6][10]. - **PX & PTA**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [10][13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [17][18][19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [19][20][22]. - **Propylene**: Unilateral trading: oscillate and sort out; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [24][25][26]. - **PVC**: Unilateral trading: observe in the short term and short - sell on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [26][27][28]. - **Caustic Soda**: Unilateral trading: buy on dips; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [28][29][30]. - **Plastic PP**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly in the short term and short - sell on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [30][31]. - **Log**: Unilateral trading: observe mainly, and aggressive investors can consider a small - scale long - position layout; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [32][33]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Unilateral trading: short - sell the 01 contract near the lower limit of the spot market price; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [33][34]. - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading: try a small - scale long - position in the SP main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage; options: observe [34][35][37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract and take profits on short positions in the NR main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions in the BR main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [40][41][42].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weakening trend with shocks, investors should adopt a weakening trend with shocks mindset and set the 5 - day moving average as the stop - loss point [4] - Asphalt: High - valued futures prices await a decline, absolute prices are over - valued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8] - High - sulfur fuel oil: Weak and volatile [4] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Futures prices follow crude oil and fluctuate weakly [4] - Methanol: Spot prices are falling, futures prices fluctuate [4] - Urea: Positive export expectations, market confidence restored, the market rebounds upward [4] - Ethylene glycol: Port inventory accumulation is not continuous, prices have support at the bottom [4] - PX: There is short - term support at the bottom [4] - PTA: Costs are supported, supply - demand drivers are limited, and there is no inventory accumulation pressure [4] - Short - fiber: Fluctuates following upstream costs [4] - Bottle chips: Costs have certain support, self - driven factors are limited [4] - PP: Good refinery profits suppress valuations, fluctuates weakly [4] - Propylene: Inventory pressure is not large, PL fluctuates in the short term [4] - Plastic: Supported by maintenance, fluctuates [4] - Pure benzene: Driven by insufficient factors, fluctuates within a narrow range [4] - Styrene: Peak - season stockpiling has begun one after another, but the expected demand is limited, and the overall situation is average [4] - PVC: Anti - dumping measures pressure demand, be cautious and bearish [4] - Caustic soda: Spot prices stabilize and rebound, the market is cautiously optimistic [4] 2. Core Views - The geopolitical situation in the crude oil market is gradually easing, and the market is trending weakly. The chemical industry follows and fluctuates. The pattern of chemical products is slightly stronger than that of crude oil, especially the aromatics segment is boosted by the strong gasoline cracking spread [2][3] - The crude oil market faces continuous inventory accumulation pressure, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The high - valued asphalt futures prices are expected to decline. High - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates weakly, and low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil and fluctuates weakly. The methanol spot price is falling, and the futures price fluctuates. Urea has positive export expectations, and the market rebounds. Ethylene glycol has support at the bottom due to non - continuous port inventory accumulation. PX has short - term support, PTA has cost support and no inventory accumulation pressure, short - fiber follows upstream costs, bottle chips have cost support, PP fluctuates weakly, propylene fluctuates in the short term, plastic fluctuates with maintenance support, pure benzene fluctuates narrowly, styrene's demand is limited, PVC is cautiously bearish, and caustic soda is cautiously optimistic [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Each Variety Crude oil - Market news: Ukraine plans to buy $100 billion worth of US weapons with European funding, and reach a $50 billion agreement with US companies to produce drones. Multiple Palestinian factions agree to a cease - fire proposal. Ukraine attacks a Russian oil pump station [7] - Main logic: OPEC+ production increases lead to supply pressure, global on - land crude oil inventories accumulate against the season, and overseas refined oil gasoline inventories are high. Future crude oil inventories face double pressure from the peak and decline of refinery operations and OPEC+ accelerated production increases, and the monthly spread is under pressure. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [7] Asphalt - Market news: The main asphalt futures contract closes at 3461 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong are 3730 yuan/ton, 3880 yuan/ton, and 3580 yuan/ton respectively [8] - Main logic: EIA significantly lowers the oil price forecast, the Russia - US Alaska meeting exceeds expectations, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict drives the geopolitical premium to decline. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is still high, driving refinery operations to return. The demand for asphalt is not optimistic, and the current valuation is higher than that of crude oil, rebar, low - sulfur fuel oil, and high - sulfur fuel oil [8] High - sulfur fuel oil - Market news: The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closes at 2691 yuan/ton [8] - Main logic: EIA significantly lowers the oil price forecast and raises OPEC production. The market is affected by factors such as increased tariffs, OPEC production increases, and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. China raises the fuel oil import tariff, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil feedstock decreases. The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread is still high and is supported by the weakening of crude oil [9] Low - sulfur fuel oil - Market news: The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closes at 3436 yuan/ton [11] - Main logic: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weakening of crude oil. Although the diesel cracking spread has risen recently, low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure is expected to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, and it is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [11] PX - Market news: On August 18, PX CFR China Taiwan price is 828(+4) dollars/ton, PX Korea FOB price is 806(+4) dollars/ton, etc. [13] - Main logic: Afternoon Asian trading session, crude oil prices rebound slightly, and PX follows the cost to strengthen. Fundamentally, maintenance devices are restarting one after another, and the load is slightly increasing. The polyester peak season is approaching, and demand support is gradually strengthening. PX is in a tight supply - demand balance with low inventory, and the short - term downside space is expected to be limited [13] PTA - Market news: On August 18, PTA spot price is 4665(+6) yuan/ton, etc. [14] - Main logic: The cost has short - term support. Fundamentally, the supply side has a slight decline in load due to device maintenance, and downstream polyester and textile industries show signs of recovery. PTA's inventory accumulation pressure in August is narrowing. It is expected that short - term prices will mainly follow cost fluctuations [14] Pure benzene - Market news: On August 18, the closing price of the pure benzene 2603 contract is 6179, with a change of - 0.05%, etc. [15] - Main logic: The geopolitical situation is expected to ease further, and the International Energy Agency lowers the global demand growth forecast, which puts pressure on the oil market. Asian naphtha downstream ethylene cracking device operating rates remain low. Pure benzene performs stronger than the cost side this week, mainly affected by factors such as coking production restrictions, downstream rigid - demand restocking, and port inventory reduction. Downstream operating rates increase, but price increases are weak, and profits decline [17] Styrene - Market news: On August 18, the East China styrene spot price is 7250(0) yuan/ton, etc. [17] - Main logic: Recently, styrene prices have fluctuated weakly. Positive factors include a slight improvement in the pure benzene market and the start of peak - season stockpiling by downstream industries. Negative factors are more dominant, such as the new production capacity of Jingbosidaruixin device, the expected increase in existing supply, and poor white - goods production scheduling data [18] Ethylene glycol - Market news: On August 18, the EG main contract 2509 closes at 4346, a decrease of 28 from the previous trading day, etc. [18] - Main logic: Coal prices are under pressure, and the cost of ethylene glycol has limited guidance. Fundamentally, the supply side has great pressure, but port inventory accumulation is not continuous, and the overall accumulation range is not large. It is expected that prices will have strong support under the low - inventory pattern [19] Short - fiber - Market news: On August 18, the Zhejiang market polyester short - fiber spot price rises by 10 to 6490 yuan/ton ex - factory, etc. [20] - Main logic: The supply - demand fundamentals change little, downstream spinning mill loads and inventories remain stable, market orders start slowly, and raw material support is average. The absolute value of short - fiber follows raw material fluctuations and fluctuates in the short term [22] Bottle chips - Market news: On August 18, the East China market polyester bottle chip price closes at 5890, with a change of - 10, etc. [22] - Main logic: Rising raw material prices support bottle chips. Fundamentally, there are few changes. Attention should be paid to the restart of factory devices in September. Short - term prices follow upstream costs, and processing fees fluctuate within a range [23] Methanol - Market news: On August 18, the low - end price of methanol in Taicang spot is 2290 yuan/ton (- 20), etc. [24] - Main logic: On August 18, methanol futures prices fluctuate. The Inner Mongolia market price is slightly adjusted downward, but trading is okay. Port inventories increase. Downstream olefins are under pressure due to falling oil prices, which also affects methanol. Considering the high certainty of overseas shutdowns in the far - month, long positions in the far - month can still be considered later [24] Urea - Market news: On August 18, 2025, the high - end and low - end prices of urea in the Shandong market are 1740 yuan/ton (+ 30 yuan/ton) and 1730 yuan/ton (+ 30 yuan/ton) respectively [24] - Main logic: Based on the actual export data from May to July and the existing export quota of 320 tons, the average monthly export in August and September needs to reach one million tons to meet the quota. Although the fundamental supply - demand is loose, market confidence recovers rapidly due to high export profits and expected high export volumes, and the market rebounds [25] Plastic (LLDPE) - Market news: On August 18, the mainstream price of LLDPE spot is 7300(0) yuan/ton, etc. [27] - Main logic: On August 18, the main plastic contract declines slightly. Oil prices fluctuate weakly in the short term, and there is still capital game at the macro level. The plastic's own fundamentals are under pressure, and overseas factors also need attention [27] PP - Market news: On August 18, the mainstream transaction price of East China PP drawing is 7000(- 30) yuan/ton, etc. [28] - Main logic: On August 18, the main PP contract fluctuates and declines. Oil prices fluctuate weakly in the short term, propane prices are weak, PP supply is increasing, demand is in the off - peak to peak - season transition, and the export window is limited. Attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff games [29] Propylene (PL) - Market news: On August 18, PL fluctuates, and the low - end market price of Shandong PL is 6400 yuan/ton [29] - Main logic: On August 18, the main PL contract fluctuates. Propylene enterprise inventories are controllable, and offers are slightly increased. Downstream factories follow demand, and high - price transactions are limited. The short - term market follows PP fluctuations, and the PP - PL polypropylene processing fee is the focus of the market [29] PVC - Market news: The benchmark price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4880(- 50) yuan/ton, etc. [31] - Main logic: At the macro level, there are still expectations of anti - involution, and policy orientation should be noted. At the micro level, PVC fundamentals are under pressure. Upstream autumn maintenance is about to start, downstream demand is rigid, export expectations are under pressure due to anti - dumping measures, and cost support is weak [31] Caustic soda - Market news: The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2625(+ 63) yuan/ton, etc. [32] - Main logic: At the macro level, there are still expectations of anti - involution, and policy orientation should be noted. At the micro level, the fundamentals are improving marginally. Alumina demand is increasing, non - aluminum demand is entering the peak season, and there is some restocking in the middle and lower reaches. Shandong maintenance increases in mid - to late August, and attention should be paid to whether the difficulty in liquid chlorine sales will force alkali plants to reduce production [32] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period spreads: Brent M1 - M2 is 0.55 with a change of 0, Dubai M1 - M2 is 0.9 with a change of 0.02, etc. [34] - Basis and inventory receipts: The basis of asphalt is 107 with a change of - 52, and the inventory receipts are 72850, etc. [35] - Inter - variety spreads: 1 - month PP - 3MA is - 140 with a change of 12, 1 - month TA - EG is 354 with a change of 50, etc. [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The demand for summer travel in the US is higher than expected, and the strong gasoline demand boosts market confidence. OPEC+ is optimistic about gasoline demand in the third quarter. The tariff negotiation is postponed to August, which postpones market concerns. PTA will see new installations put into production in the third quarter, creating a time mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong bottom support. Whether PX profitability can continue to rise depends on unexpected factors. The PX supply side lacks positive factors, and with the off - season of polyester consumption and a significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates, and the fundamentals are weakening. The PTA market is affected by the strong crude oil market, and the downstream polyester operating rate is still higher than last year. The PTA spot basis has rebounded from the bottom. However, with new installations expected on the supply side and no improvement in demand during the off - season, it's difficult to boost prices. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, and due to weak supply - demand expectations, prices have fallen across the board. If polyester production cuts deepen, industry chain contradictions will intensify. The cost - side strength drives the profit distribution pattern to tilt towards raw materials again. PTA will fluctuate, with cost being the dominant factor. The polyester bottle - chip market has sufficient supply, and downstream buying enthusiasm is waning. The polyester industry chain has weak demand and is expected to fluctuate. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 14, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $66.98 per barrel, down 2.15% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $69.21 per barrel, down 1.63%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) on July 11 was $584.25 per ton, down 1.14%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) on July 14 was $740 per ton, up 2.85%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) on July 14 was $852 per ton, up 1.83% [1]. - **PTA**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,740 yuan per ton, up 0.85%; the settlement price was 4,726 yuan per ton, up 0.34%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,732 yuan per ton, up 0.72%; the settlement price was 4,726 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,735 yuan per ton, up 0.45%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,735 yuan per ton, up 0.42%. The CCFEI price index of foreign PTA on July 11 was $624 per ton, down 1.58%. The near - far month spread was 0 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan per ton; the basis was - 5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton [1]. - **PX**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,778 yuan per ton, up 1.25%; the settlement price was 6,748 yuan per ton, up 0.42%. The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 6,926 yuan per ton, up 0.44%; the settlement price was 6,926 yuan per ton, up 0.44%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,813 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (CFR Chinese Taipei) was $851 per ton, up 1.67%; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (FOB Korea) was $826 per ton, up 1.72%. The PXN spread was $267.75 per ton, up 8.99%; the PX - MX spread was $112 per ton, down 4.41%. The basis was 35 yuan per ton, a decrease of 84 yuan per ton [1]. - **PR**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,920 yuan per ton, up 0.71%; the settlement price was 5,902 yuan per ton, up 0.27%. The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,948 yuan per ton, up 0.27%; the settlement price was 5,948 yuan per ton, up 0.27%. The market price (dominant price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,955 yuan per ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it was 6,020 yuan per ton, unchanged. The basis in the East China market was 35 yuan per ton, a decrease of 42 yuan per ton; in the South China market, it was 100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 42 yuan per ton [1]. - **Downstream**: On July 14, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,600 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,050 yuan per ton, down 0.70%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 0.72%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 0.72%. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,655 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,825 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,955 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. Operating Conditions - On July 14, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 78.98%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.59%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of polyester factories was 87.15%, up 0.28 percentage points; the PTA industry chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was 71.93%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 59.12%, unchanged. The sales rate of polyester filament was 37%, up 1 percentage point; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 74%, up 33 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 144%, up 83 percentage points [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technological transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Trading Strategies - PTA has slightly rebounded, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,740 yuan per ton (up 0.64%), and the daily trading volume was 1.01 million lots. The PX price has returned to consolidation, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,778 yuan per ton (up 0.86%), and the daily trading volume was 228,200 lots. PR follows the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,920 yuan per ton (up 0.58%), and the daily trading volume was 53,700 lots. The international oil price has declined. The polyester industry chain has weak demand and is expected to fluctuate. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to fluctuate (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]