Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of the second phase of the solvency regulation (偿二代二期) for insurance companies in China, focusing on the calculation and significance of future policy earnings and remaining margins as key indicators of the operational status of life insurance companies [1]. Group 1: Future Policy Earnings and Remaining Margins - The future policy earnings, introduced under the second phase of solvency regulation, can be derived using specific formulas, which help in understanding the remaining margins of profitable life insurance companies [2][3]. - The difference between accounting reserves and solvency reserves is termed ACCIF, representing the contribution of existing policies to actual capital. For most small and medium-sized life insurance companies, future policy earnings equate to ACCIF [3]. - By the end of 2024, only 27 life insurance companies are expected to have reported three consecutive years of profitability under tax standards, with specific companies like 人保寿险 failing to meet this criterion [5]. Group 2: Analysis of Remaining Margins - The article identifies four main reasons for a decline in future policy earnings: high proportion of participating insurance, increased comprehensive premiums, lower continuation rates for high future earnings products, and adjustments in actuarial assumptions that lower accounting reserves [9]. - The remaining margin's calculation under the current CGAAP is locked, and changes in the present value of amortization carriers are minimally affected by the 750-day curve changes [10]. - The operational deviations, excluding policy cancellations, do not impact the remaining margins of existing policies, while mortality rate deviations have a negligible effect [12]. Group 3: Impact of Surrender Rates on Remaining Margins - Different companies have varying assumptions regarding surrender rates for mainstream products, significantly affecting their remaining margins [14]. - For example, a comparison of surrender rates of 1% versus 5% shows that the remaining margins can be nearly doubled under lower surrender rate assumptions [15]. - Some companies have accumulated considerable remaining margins through the sale of low-priced long-term critical illness insurance, but their claims ratios have exceeded pricing assumptions, leading to potential future losses [16]. Group 4: Remaining Margins Data - The remaining margins for major life insurance companies are presented, showing fluctuations from 2022 to 2024. For instance, 平安人寿's remaining margin is projected to decrease from 8,944 million in 2022 to 7,890 million in 2024, a decline of 1,054 million [17][19].