Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of the second phase of the solvency regulation (偿二代二期) for insurance companies in China, focusing on the calculation and significance of future policy earnings and remaining margins as key indicators of the operational status of life insurance companies [1]. Group 1: Future Policy Earnings and Remaining Margins - The future policy earnings, introduced under the second phase of solvency regulation, can be derived using specific formulas, which help in understanding the remaining margins of profitable life insurance companies [2][3]. - The difference between accounting reserves and solvency reserves is termed ACCIF, representing the contribution of existing policies to actual capital. For most small and medium-sized life insurance companies, future policy earnings equate to ACCIF [3]. - By the end of 2024, only 27 life insurance companies are expected to have reported three consecutive years of profitability under tax standards, with specific companies like 人保寿险 failing to meet this criterion [5]. Group 2: Analysis of Remaining Margins - The article identifies four main reasons for a decline in future policy earnings: high proportion of participating insurance, increased comprehensive premiums, lower continuation rates for high future earnings products, and adjustments in actuarial assumptions that lower accounting reserves [9]. - The remaining margin's calculation under the current CGAAP is locked, and changes in the present value of amortization carriers are minimally affected by the 750-day curve changes [10]. - The operational deviations, excluding policy cancellations, do not impact the remaining margins of existing policies, while mortality rate deviations have a negligible effect [12]. Group 3: Impact of Surrender Rates on Remaining Margins - Different companies have varying assumptions regarding surrender rates for mainstream products, significantly affecting their remaining margins [14]. - For example, a comparison of surrender rates of 1% versus 5% shows that the remaining margins can be nearly doubled under lower surrender rate assumptions [15]. - Some companies have accumulated considerable remaining margins through the sale of low-priced long-term critical illness insurance, but their claims ratios have exceeded pricing assumptions, leading to potential future losses [16]. Group 4: Remaining Margins Data - The remaining margins for major life insurance companies are presented, showing fluctuations from 2022 to 2024. For instance, 平安人寿's remaining margin is projected to decrease from 8,944 million in 2022 to 7,890 million in 2024, a decline of 1,054 million [17][19].

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "2025 Experience Life Table" by the China Actuarial Association marks a significant update in the life insurance industry, reflecting changes in population life expectancy and mortality rates, which will lead to profound transformations in insurance product design and pricing [1][3][5]. Group 1: Life Table Overview - The 2025 version of the life table includes various tables for pension and non-pension businesses, serving as a crucial tool for pricing, reserve assessment, and risk management in the insurance sector [3][5]. - The life table indicates a 10-year increase in average life expectancy since the first version, alongside a significant reduction in child mortality rates, showcasing improvements in healthcare and social governance [3][5][6]. Group 2: Impact on Insurance Products - The updated life table will provide essential data for designing more scientifically sound insurance products, particularly in the areas of pension and death risk coverage [6][7]. - The life table's insights will allow insurance companies to better meet the evolving needs of consumers, especially in terms of retirement and death risk products [6][7]. Group 3: Pricing Implications - The decrease in mortality rates and increase in life expectancy suggest potential reductions in premiums for life insurance products, while pension products may see price increases due to extended payout periods [7][8]. - The actual adjustments in premiums will depend on various factors, including company strategies and market conditions, leading to a structural differentiation in pricing across different insurance products [7][8]. Group 4: Regulatory Framework - The Financial Regulatory Authority has issued guidelines to ensure the proper use of the life table, aiming to protect consumer rights and promote healthy industry development [9][10]. - The guidelines will enforce standards for premium determination, reserve assessments, and dividend distributions, ensuring fairness and transparency in the insurance market [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The industry is looking towards the future with advancements in artificial intelligence, which may allow for real-time adjustments in insurance premiums based on individual risk profiles [11]. - This shift towards more personalized and fair pricing models reflects the ongoing evolution of the insurance landscape, driven by technological advancements and data analytics [11].

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "2025 Experience Life Table" by the China Actuarial Society marks a significant update in the life insurance industry, reflecting changes in population life expectancy and mortality rates, which will influence product design and pricing in the insurance sector [1][4][10]. Group 1: Life Table Overview - The 2025 version of the life table includes various tables for pension and non-pension businesses, serving as a crucial tool for pricing, reserve assessment, and risk management in insurance [4][6]. - The life table indicates a continuous increase in life expectancy, with the fourth version showing an approximate 10-year increase compared to the first version [4][6]. - Improvements in child mortality rates and reduced mortality in economically underdeveloped regions highlight the success of national strategies like poverty alleviation and rural revitalization [4][6]. Group 2: Impact on Insurance Products - The updated life table will provide essential data for designing more scientifically sound insurance products, particularly in pension and death risk coverage [6][10]. - The introduction of the single life table allows for more personalized product pricing and risk assessment, enabling insurance companies to better meet consumer needs [6][10]. - The anticipated changes in mortality rates suggest potential decreases in premiums for life insurance products, while pension products may see an increase due to extended payout periods [8][9]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework - The Financial Regulatory Authority has issued a notification to guide the use of the new life table, emphasizing the need for prudent assessment of mortality rates and fair distribution of dividends [11][12]. - The notification aims to enhance the actuarial responsibilities of insurance companies, ensuring that they effectively utilize the life table for risk management and consumer protection [12]. - Future developments may include real-time adjustments to individual risk rates based on advanced AI models, promoting fairness in insurance pricing [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The China Insurance Industry Association has triggered a downward adjustment of the preset interest rates for life insurance products, with the current research value for ordinary life insurance products set at 1.99%, below the existing cap of 2.5% for two consecutive quarters [1][3]. Group 1: Rate Adjustments - The maximum preset interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has been lowered from 2.5% to 2%, while the maximum for participating products has decreased from 2% to 1.75%, and the minimum guaranteed rate for universal life products has been reduced from 1.5% to 1% [1][3]. - This is the first time the dynamic adjustment mechanism for preset interest rates has been triggered since its establishment [2]. - The adjustment reflects a significant downward shift, with the maximum preset interest rates for ordinary and universal life insurance products both reduced by 0.5% [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - There is a "last train effect" observed, with a surge in sales of products offering the previous 2.5% rate expected throughout August [2]. - Popular products, particularly those with a 2.5% preset interest rate, are seeing increased demand from clients [5][6]. - Some clients are actively seeking to purchase these products, indicating a rational approach rather than panic buying [6]. Group 3: Product Development Trends - The adjustment in preset interest rates is expected to influence product development, registration, and sales processes within insurance companies [4]. - The lower preset interest rates are likely to drive a shift towards participating insurance products, which have more flexible dividend distribution mechanisms [4][9]. - The proportion of new participating insurance products has significantly increased, with 33% of new life insurance products launched in the first half of 2025 being participating insurance [8]. Group 4: Financial Implications - The reduction in preset interest rates will lead to decreased returns on savings-type insurance products, with potential earnings dropping significantly over long-term investments [7]. - Long-term critical illness and term life insurance premiums may rise, with estimates suggesting a potential increase of up to 30% following the rate adjustment [7]. - The shift towards floating yield products is seen as a strategy to lower liability costs and maintain profit margins amid declining investment yields [9].