Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of the second phase of the solvency regulation (偿二代二期) for insurance companies in China, focusing on the calculation and significance of future policy earnings and remaining margins as key indicators of the operational status of life insurance companies [1]. Group 1: Future Policy Earnings and Remaining Margins - The future policy earnings, introduced under the second phase of solvency regulation, can be derived using specific formulas, which help in understanding the remaining margins of profitable life insurance companies [2][3]. - The difference between accounting reserves and solvency reserves is termed ACCIF, representing the contribution of existing policies to actual capital. For most small and medium-sized life insurance companies, future policy earnings equate to ACCIF [3]. - By the end of 2024, only 27 life insurance companies are expected to have reported three consecutive years of profitability under tax standards, with specific companies like 人保寿险 failing to meet this criterion [5]. Group 2: Analysis of Remaining Margins - The article identifies four main reasons for a decline in future policy earnings: high proportion of participating insurance, increased comprehensive premiums, lower continuation rates for high future earnings products, and adjustments in actuarial assumptions that lower accounting reserves [9]. - The remaining margin's calculation under the current CGAAP is locked, and changes in the present value of amortization carriers are minimally affected by the 750-day curve changes [10]. - The operational deviations, excluding policy cancellations, do not impact the remaining margins of existing policies, while mortality rate deviations have a negligible effect [12]. Group 3: Impact of Surrender Rates on Remaining Margins - Different companies have varying assumptions regarding surrender rates for mainstream products, significantly affecting their remaining margins [14]. - For example, a comparison of surrender rates of 1% versus 5% shows that the remaining margins can be nearly doubled under lower surrender rate assumptions [15]. - Some companies have accumulated considerable remaining margins through the sale of low-priced long-term critical illness insurance, but their claims ratios have exceeded pricing assumptions, leading to potential future losses [16]. Group 4: Remaining Margins Data - The remaining margins for major life insurance companies are presented, showing fluctuations from 2022 to 2024. For instance, 平安人寿's remaining margin is projected to decrease from 8,944 million in 2022 to 7,890 million in 2024, a decline of 1,054 million [17][19].

一场关乎国人未来保障的精算变革，正于2025年的深秋悄然启幕。在2025金融街论坛年会金融街之声 ——"金融街发布"成果专场发布活动上，中国精算师协会正式发布了《中国人身保险业经验生命表 （2025）》（以下简称"2025版生命表"）。这是自2016年第三套生命表发布后，我国人身保险业在核心 基础工具上的又一次里程碑式更新。 当保险人群平均预期寿命较数十年前增长了约10岁，当少儿的死亡率显著降低，当各地的保障网越织越 密，生命表的每一次微调，都预示着保险产品设计与定价即将迎来一场深刻而细腻的变革。在业内人士 看来，生命表不是冰冷的数据汇编，而是时代脉搏在保险领域的生动回响。 一纸生命表十年保险路 会场内，聚光灯下，2025版生命表揭开面纱。 "生命表是以数理形式呈现保险人群生存和死亡概率分布规律的数据表，是保险产品定价、准备金评估 和风险管理的重要基础工具。"中国精算师协会执行副会长兼秘书长张晓蕾表示。 中国精算师协会同日发布的信息显示，2025版生命表包括养老类业务表、非养老类业务一表、非养老类 业务二表和单一生命体表。 这份厚重的生命表，仿佛在阅读一部中国保险人群近年来的"生命编年史"。张晓蕾指出了其中蕴 ...

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "2025 Experience Life Table" by the China Actuarial Society marks a significant update in the life insurance industry, reflecting changes in population life expectancy and mortality rates, which will influence product design and pricing in the insurance sector [1][4][10]. Group 1: Life Table Overview - The 2025 version of the life table includes various tables for pension and non-pension businesses, serving as a crucial tool for pricing, reserve assessment, and risk management in insurance [4][6]. - The life table indicates a continuous increase in life expectancy, with the fourth version showing an approximate 10-year increase compared to the first version [4][6]. - Improvements in child mortality rates and reduced mortality in economically underdeveloped regions highlight the success of national strategies like poverty alleviation and rural revitalization [4][6]. Group 2: Impact on Insurance Products - The updated life table will provide essential data for designing more scientifically sound insurance products, particularly in pension and death risk coverage [6][10]. - The introduction of the single life table allows for more personalized product pricing and risk assessment, enabling insurance companies to better meet consumer needs [6][10]. - The anticipated changes in mortality rates suggest potential decreases in premiums for life insurance products, while pension products may see an increase due to extended payout periods [8][9]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework - The Financial Regulatory Authority has issued a notification to guide the use of the new life table, emphasizing the need for prudent assessment of mortality rates and fair distribution of dividends [11][12]. - The notification aims to enhance the actuarial responsibilities of insurance companies, ensuring that they effectively utilize the life table for risk management and consumer protection [12]. - Future developments may include real-time adjustments to individual risk rates based on advanced AI models, promoting fairness in insurance pricing [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The China Insurance Industry Association has triggered a downward adjustment of the preset interest rates for life insurance products, with the current research value for ordinary life insurance products set at 1.99%, below the existing cap of 2.5% for two consecutive quarters [1][3]. Group 1: Rate Adjustments - The maximum preset interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has been lowered from 2.5% to 2%, while the maximum for participating products has decreased from 2% to 1.75%, and the minimum guaranteed rate for universal life products has been reduced from 1.5% to 1% [1][3]. - This is the first time the dynamic adjustment mechanism for preset interest rates has been triggered since its establishment [2]. - The adjustment reflects a significant downward shift, with the maximum preset interest rates for ordinary and universal life insurance products both reduced by 0.5% [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - There is a "last train effect" observed, with a surge in sales of products offering the previous 2.5% rate expected throughout August [2]. - Popular products, particularly those with a 2.5% preset interest rate, are seeing increased demand from clients [5][6]. - Some clients are actively seeking to purchase these products, indicating a rational approach rather than panic buying [6]. Group 3: Product Development Trends - The adjustment in preset interest rates is expected to influence product development, registration, and sales processes within insurance companies [4]. - The lower preset interest rates are likely to drive a shift towards participating insurance products, which have more flexible dividend distribution mechanisms [4][9]. - The proportion of new participating insurance products has significantly increased, with 33% of new life insurance products launched in the first half of 2025 being participating insurance [8]. Group 4: Financial Implications - The reduction in preset interest rates will lead to decreased returns on savings-type insurance products, with potential earnings dropping significantly over long-term investments [7]. - Long-term critical illness and term life insurance premiums may rise, with estimates suggesting a potential increase of up to 30% following the rate adjustment [7]. - The shift towards floating yield products is seen as a strategy to lower liability costs and maintain profit margins amid declining investment yields [9].