本文来自格隆汇专栏：国金证券研究所；作者：舒思勤 黄佳慧 预计26年上市险企新单保费将实现双位数增长，银保渠道是主驱力。展望2026年，预计个险渠道保持稳健增长，银保渠 道直接受益于存款搬家，客户优势和账户优势明显，叠加大型险企开拓银保市场的积极性和优势显著，预计仍将延续较 好增长，市占率继续提升。在银保增长的主驱动下，预计大型险企的2026年新单保费将实现双位数增长；规模增长将摊 薄固定成本，这在银保渠道将更为显著，带来整体盈利提升。 自2020年起头部险企开始重新重视银保渠道，从弥补规模到追求价值，市占率随积极性同步抬升且将延续。个险渠道自 2018年开始进入深度调整期，保险公司为转移业务压力重新发力银保渠道，弥补规模保费。自2020年开始，增额终身寿 热销驱动银保渠道期缴保费增长，且其价值率比趸交产品高，大型险企加大银保渠道发展力度，2023年"老七家"银保规 保新单市占率较2019年提升15.6pct至23.8%。2023年8月银保渠道报行合一开始推行，费用成本大幅下降驱动价值率大幅 提升，叠加"1+3"网点限制的放开，头部公司纷纷大力开拓银保渠道，在资源协同、品牌、服务等优势加持下，头部市 占率提升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating, recommending continued active investment in the insurance sector due to expected double-digit growth in new premiums driven by the bancassurance channel [5]. Core Insights - The insurance industry is projected to achieve double-digit growth in new premiums by 2026, primarily driven by the bancassurance channel, which benefits from the migration of deposits and the competitive advantages of large insurance companies [1][26]. - The bancassurance channel has seen a significant increase in market share, with the "old seven" insurance companies' new premium market share rising from 8.2% in 2019 to 23.8% in 2023, and expected to reach 26.0% in 2024 [2][22]. - A survey of 88 frontline bank wealth managers indicates that a substantial portion of household deposits will mature in 2026, with expectations that many will not be renewed, leading to a shift towards insurance products [3][35]. - The demographic of clients with maturing deposits is predominantly older, with a lower risk appetite, making insurance products a preferred option for reallocating funds [4][40]. - The report highlights that the bancassurance channel's growth will significantly enhance the overall profitability of large insurance companies by spreading fixed costs over a larger premium base [1][26]. Summary by Sections Bancassurance Channel - The bancassurance channel is identified as the main driver of value growth in the insurance industry for 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.2% from 2019 to 2023 [12]. - The report notes that the shift in focus from individual insurance channels to bancassurance began in 2020, driven by the need to compensate for declining individual premium growth [2][12]. Bank Wealth Manager Survey Analysis - The survey indicates that a significant portion of maturing deposits will not be renewed, with expectations that 50% of clients will have deposits maturing in the 10%-30% and 30%-50% ranges [3][35]. - Wealth managers believe that the most acceptable financial products for clients will be bank wealth management and insurance, with insurance ranking second [4][40]. Projections for 2026 - The report estimates that the new premium growth rate for the bancassurance channel will exceed 25% in 2026, with expected incremental funds of 3,057 billion in January, 5,094 billion in Q1, and 11,150 billion for the entire year [5][62]. - The anticipated growth is attributed to the large volume of maturing deposits and the expected shift towards insurance products due to lower renewal rates for traditional bank deposits [60].

存款到期的客群年龄整体偏高，预计风险偏好整体偏低，保险产品位居居民到期存款再配置的第二选择 梯队 ①26年初存款到期的客户年龄位于45-60岁、60岁以上、30-45岁、30岁以下的综合得分为3.39、2.53、 2.51、1.57分。②预计存款到期客户对银行理财接受程度最高，保险位居第二梯队。在选择该选项的理 财经理中，认为银行理财、现金持有、保险产品、债券型基金、固收+基金、权益基金为客户最能接受 的金融产品的理财经理，占比分别为46.8%、47.1%、10.0%、7.8%、6.6%、5.7%。综合得分来看，银行 理财5.64分、现金持有4.31分（预计转存其他银行也包括在内），其余债券型基金、固收+基金、保险 产品得分接近，分别为3.31、3.24、3.14分，权益基金为2.03分。 智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，展望2026年，预计个险渠道保持稳健增长，银保渠道直接受 益于存款搬家，客户优势和账户优势明显，叠加大型险企开拓银保市场的积极性和优势显著，预计仍将 延续较好增长，市占率继续提升。 国金证券主要观点如下： 预计26年上市险企新单保费将实现双位数增长，银保渠道是主驱力 在银保增长的主驱 ...

智通财经获悉，开源证券发布研报称，随着分红险转型提升产品吸引力，以及养老、健康保障需求持续 释放，保险产品在收益率稳定性和长期保障方面的优势日益凸显。预计保险资产占居民存款及固收类理 财比重将持续上升，推动行业负债端新单保费与资产端投资回报同步改善，行业有望步入"黄金发展周 期"。 分红险转型有望进一步提升产品竞争力，"保险+"产品具备特殊壁垒 （1）短期看，大额存单供给进一步收缩，债市有望延续2025年波动趋势，保险相对高收益、高稳定优 势凸显。（2）中长期看，分红险转型进一步增加保险产品吸引力，预定利率连续三年调降缩小传统险 收益率优势，但自2025年开始分红险转型持续见效，且受股市向好影响，2026年开门红产品演示结算利 率普遍高于3.0%，具备吸引力。（3）长期看，养老和健康保障需求持续释放，"保险+"产品具备特殊 竞争优势，为保险"黄金"发展阶段奠定基石。 风险提示：长端利率下行风险；寿险转型低于预期风险。 责任编辑：钟离 关键词阅读：保险 理财 分红险 开源证券主要观点如下： 储蓄和保障双重优势，保险占居民理财比重有望持续提升 （1）向后展望，分红险转型增加保险产品吸引力，养老和健康保障需求持续释 ...

智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，随着分红险转型提升产品吸引力，以及养老、健康保障需求 持续释放，保险产品在收益率稳定性和长期保障方面的优势日益凸显。预计保险资产占居民存款及固收 类理财比重将持续上升，推动行业负债端新单保费与资产端投资回报同步改善，行业有望步入"黄金发 展周期"。 开源证券主要观点如下： 流量和存量视角看，保险资产占居民存款及固收类理财资产比重持续提升从历史数据看，保险资产占居 民存款及固收类理财资产比重持续提升 流量数据看，总保费占比从2022年的15.8%提升到2025年的22.4%（1-11月数据），3年累计提升6.6pct。 保费存量规模占比提升开始于2023年12月，2023年12月至2025年11月，居民存款占比从66.2%下降1.7个 百分点至64.5%，保费存量规模占比从12.5%上升1.6个百分点至14.1%。该行认为，主要原因包括： （1）保险产品具有相对稳定和较高的收益率：存款利率持续回落、理财和债基收益率波动较大，保险 产品收益率具有优势。从利率调降节奏看，相较于定期存款利率，保险预定利率调降速度和幅度均相对 落后。同时，相较于银行理财和债基，保险收益率稳定性较 ...

保险Ⅱ 2026 年 01 月 06 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 2026-01 保险Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究报告 《拓宽产品形态和功能，健康险有望 迎来增长新机遇—"健康险高质量发 展意见"点评》-2025.10.8 zhangenqi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125080012 储蓄和保障双重优势，保险占居民理财比重有望持续提升 （1）向后展望，分红险转型增加保险产品吸引力, 养老和健康保障需求持续释 放，大额存单供给进一步收缩，债市波动下，保险产品稳定回报率的性价比优势 继续凸显。在中长期维度，保险资产占居民存款和固收理财类资产比重有望持续 提升，带来保险新单保费和资产规模增速向好，保险行业迎来"黄金发展周期"。 （2）聚焦 2026 年，保险行业负债端看，分红险转型持续见效，个险新单有望企 稳回升，银保渠道在双向奔赴下，头部险企有望延续 2025 年较快增长态势。险 企新单保费增速有望明显扩张，利好险企 NBV 新业务价值增速改善。（3）资产 端看，长端利率中枢稳步 ...

（来源：北京商报） 年末，保险公司的"开门红"如火如荼。冬日的北京，高宏（化名）频繁地奔走在见客户的路上。没有明 确的起跑线也看不到终点，一年一度的"开门红"被她视为一场被不断拉长的耐力跑；而在保险配置意识 相对较弱的潮汕地区，苗兰（化名）对这场被赋予特殊意义的"战役"显得淡然；在山东，具有银保渠道 背景的保险经纪人李刚（化名），虽身处保险公司物理架构之外，却更能清晰地感知行业结构的冰冷分 化："如今在保险行业，恐怕'二八定律'已成过去，更接近'一九定律'。" 北京商报记者在采访中了解到，上述三位保险从业者，身处中国的不同坐标，扮演着行业链条上的不同 角色。高宏在头部公司追逐"大单"，苗兰在普通家庭间守护保障，李刚则在保险经纪赛道上探索咨询的 价值。市场温度的变化，他们体感一致："压力大、有点难。"这背后，他们眼中的"大鱼"正游向更深的 水域，曾经广阔的市场出现局部"板结"。 在保险从业者看来，这是一个"在小河沟里捞'大鱼'"的时代。当行业从粗放扩张驶入质量深耕的深水 区，保险的"开门红"不再是短暂冲刺后的庆功，而是一场考验韧性、价值与专业度的"马拉松"。 韧性 永不停歇的"开门红" 高宏，一家头部保险公司代 ...

年末，保险公司的"开门红"如火如荼。近日的北京，气温又降低了几度，高宏（化名）频繁赶往见客户的路上。没有明确的起跑 线，也看不到终点，一年一度的"开门红"被她视为一场战线被不断拉长的耐力跑；在潮汕地区，保险配置意识相对较弱，使得当 地的苗兰（化名）对这场被赋予特殊意义的"战役"显得淡然；在山东，具有银保渠道背景的保险经纪人李刚（化名），虽身处保 险公司物理架构之外，却更能清晰感知行业结构的冰冷分化："如今在保险行业，恐怕'二八定律'已成过去，更接近'一九定 律'。" 北京商报记者在采访中了解到，上述三位保险从业者，身处辽阔中国的不同坐标，扮演着行业链条上的不同角色。高宏在头部公 司追逐"大单"，苗兰在普通家庭间守护保障，李刚则在保险经纪赛道上探索咨询的价值。市场温度的变化，他们体感一致："压 力大、有点难。"这背后，他们眼中的"大鱼"正游向更深的水域，曾经广阔的市场出现局部"板结"。 对此，在保险从业者看来，这是一个"在小河沟里捞'大鱼'"的时代。当行业从粗放扩张驶入质量深耕的深水区，保险的"开门 红"不再是短暂冲刺后的庆功，而是一场考验韧性、价值与专业度的"马拉松"。 韧性：奔跑在永不停歇的"开门红" 高宏 ...

Core Insights - The insurance industry is experiencing a significant transformation, with a stark contrast between the apparent excitement of the 2026 "opening red" campaign and the struggles faced by grassroots practitioners, including shrinking commissions and confusion over dividends [1][9] - The industry is witnessing a polarization in performance, with 36.2% of agents completing fewer than 12 policies in 2025, while only 28.5% managed to complete 25 or more, indicating a trend of "survival of the fittest" [1][9] Commission Structure Changes - The commission structure is undergoing adjustments, leading to a sharp decline in income for agents, with some reporting that a premium of 1 million yuan yields less than 5,000 yuan in commission, and in some cases, only 3,000 yuan [2][10] - The total commission expenditure for the industry is expected to drop by nearly 27 billion yuan in 2024, with some product commission rates decreasing by 30%, directly impacting agent income [2][10] - The payment cycle for commissions has been extended due to regulatory changes, raising the retention threshold for agents who rely on short-term cash flow [2][10] Agent Retention and Quality - The dual pressures of policy and market conditions have led to a high attrition rate among new agents, but this may ultimately enhance the overall quality of the agent workforce in the long run [3][11] Channel Dynamics - The distribution channel structure is shifting, with the bancassurance channel increasing its share of new policy premiums, surpassing individual insurance for the first time in 14 years, with approximately 530 billion yuan in new premiums in the first half of 2025 [4][12] - The bancassurance market is expected to see a growth rate of around 10% in 2026, indicating a concentration of resources towards more efficient channels [4][12] Product Transition Challenges - The shift towards participating insurance products presents new challenges for agents, as these products require more time and expertise to explain their complex return mechanisms to clients [6][14] - The guaranteed return for participating insurance has decreased to 1.75%, leading to client resistance and longer decision-making periods due to the uncertainty of floating dividends [6][14][15] - The previous demand for fixed-return products has created a backlog, making it difficult to sell new participating insurance products effectively [6][15] Diverse Agent Experiences - The current "opening red" campaign does not yield a simple conclusion of success or difficulty; it serves as a critical window for agents with established client bases and professional skills, while posing a significant endurance test for those on the margins or in transition [8][16] - The ongoing industry transformation suggests that the significance of the "opening red" campaign extends beyond short-term performance, reflecting changes in the structure of the agent workforce [8][16]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, with insurance companies' asset - liability management focusing more on "income coverage ratio", the investment side may show a pattern of "holding local government bonds as the bottom - position, a structural differentiation in the demand for treasury bonds, and a rebound in the willingness to allocate secondary and perpetual bonds". Insurance companies' choices of specific bond types may show structural differentiation [2][24]. - The Financial Regulatory总局 issued the "Measures for the Asset - Liability Management of Insurance Companies (Exposure Draft)" in December 2025, which reconstructs regulatory indicators and governance standards, shifting the regulatory logic from "score - oriented" to "threshold management" [4][10]. - In 2026, as the insurance industry accelerates the transformation to floating - income products such as dividend - paying insurance and the regulatory focus shifts to effective duration, the liability duration of insurance companies may decline structurally, and the pressure on asset - liability duration matching at the indicator level of life insurance companies may be further alleviated [4][18]. - Looking forward to the year - end market, abundant liquidity may maintain the short - end advantage, while the long - end needs to focus on whether the pricing is gradually dominated by allocation funds. Investment strategies should consider the balance between odds and win - rates [6][114]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 ALM Regulatory Update and Insurance Company Behavior Changes - The "Measures for the Asset - Liability Management of Insurance Companies (Exposure Draft)" was issued in December 2025, integrating previous regulatory measures and rules, and reconstructing regulatory indicators. The regulatory logic shifts from "score - oriented" to "threshold management", and "effective duration gap" is established as the core regulatory indicator for life insurance companies [4][10]. - In 2025, the overall asset - liability duration gap of the insurance industry narrowed, but some small and medium - sized insurance companies faced an expansion of the duration gap. In 2026, the liability duration of insurance companies may decline structurally, and the focus of investment may shift to income coverage [14][18]. - In 2026, the investment side of insurance companies may show a pattern where local government bonds are the bottom - position, the demand for treasury bonds is structurally differentiated, and the willingness to allocate secondary and perpetual bonds rebounds [2][24]. 3.2 Important Matters - In December 2025, the central bank conducted a net injection of 200 billion yuan through 6 - month term repurchase agreements, with the 6 - month term repurchase balance reaching 3.7 trillion yuan [29]. - From January to November 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 20.0516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The expenditure was 24.8538 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [31]. - In December 2025, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.5% - 3.75%. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% [34][37]. 3.3 Money Market - The central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations last week, with a net injection of - 1.1 billion yuan. The money market remained relatively loose, with DR001 below 1.3% throughout the week [38][40]. - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit (ICDs) last week was 995.79 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 67.06 billion yuan. The issuance cost of state - owned banks increased, while the secondary - market yields of ICDs declined [46][53]. 3.4 Bond Market - In the primary market, the supply scale of interest - rate bonds decreased last week, with an actual issuance of 376.127 billion yuan, a maturity of 347.33 billion yuan, and a net financing of 28.797 billion yuan [56][63]. - In 2025, the net financing scale of national and local government bonds increased significantly. As of December 19, the net financing of national bonds was about 6.23 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 7.11 trillion yuan [58]. - In the secondary market, ultra - long - term bonds fluctuated widely, while short - term interest rates performed well. The yields of various - term treasury and policy - bank bonds changed, and the liquidity premium of active bonds was relatively stable [70][78]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior Tracking - In November 2025, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, and other institutions decreased non - seasonally. The leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 118.04% [87][88]. - Last week, state - owned banks increased their holdings of treasury bonds with maturities of less than 5 years and policy - bank bonds with maturities of 5 - 10 years; rural commercial banks increased their holdings of treasury bonds with maturities of more than 10 years; insurance companies bought long - term treasury and local government bonds; securities firms sold long - term treasury bonds; and funds adjusted their portfolios to shorten the overall duration [87][100]. 3.6 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar and wire rod futures increased, while the settlement price of cathode copper futures decreased. The cement price index and the Nanhua Glass Index increased. The CCFI index rose, and the BDI index fell [110]. - The wholesale prices of pork increased slightly, while the wholesale prices of vegetables decreased. The settlement prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil futures decreased. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.06 [110][113]. 3.7 Market Outlook - Looking forward to the year - end market, abundant liquidity may support short - term bonds, while long - term bonds may face short - term fluctuations. As the static yield of ultra - long - term treasury bonds rises, allocation funds may gradually enter the market [6][114]. - Investment strategies suggest gradually building positions in ultra - long - term bonds for odds, but it is recommended to prioritize medium - and short - term treasury and policy - bank bonds and pay attention to trading opportunities of secondary and perpetual bonds with the same maturities. The overall portfolio duration should be controlled in the medium - to - long range of 5 - 7 years [6][114].