原标题：九卦 | 面对67万亿存款到期潮，中小银行的留客之道 来源：九卦金融圈 作者：王润石（上海金融发展研究实验室特聘研究员、重庆财经学院副教授、九卦金融圈专栏作家） 2026年，中国银行业将迎来一场规模空前的定期存款集中到期潮，据中金公司测算，到期资金规模预计 在50–75万亿元之间，其中核心部分源自2022–2023年疫情防控期间居民避险情绪催生的中长期定期存 款，1年期及以上长期限存款占比超89%，达67万亿元，较2025年同比增加10万亿元。 与此同时，市场利率持续下行态势未改，三年期定期存款利率普遍跌破1.8%，2026年开年虽有阶段性 回暖，中小银行三年期定存普遍回升至1.95%，但整体仍处于低位，国有大行三年期利率仅1.25%，股 份行在1.55%—1.85%之间，形成清晰的利率分层格局。叠加居民风险偏好持续保守、国有大行吸储能 力边际下降的多重背景，中小商业银行迎来了前所未有的"存款搬家"战略窗口期。 然而，机遇背后暗藏挑战。对于资本实力、品牌影响力均处于劣势的中小银行而言，若盲目跟风通过提 高存款利率揽储，必然会显著抬升负债成本、压缩净息差空间，甚至引发流动性风险，陷入"高成本揽 储—盈利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking and insurance sectors are undergoing significant changes due to the deepening of interest rate marketization and various macroeconomic factors, leading to a shift in focus from retaining deposits to activating funds and enhancing intermediary income [1][4]. Group 1: Banking Sector Changes - The central bank is implementing a prudent monetary policy, lowering relending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, which has led to bank deposit rates entering the "1-digit" era, diminishing their attractiveness [1]. - In 2026, a record peak of 32 trillion yuan in household time deposits will mature, with over 60% concentrated in the first quarter, raising questions about the future allocation of these funds [1][2]. - Banks are adjusting their sales strategies, increasingly promoting insurance products, particularly savings-type insurance, as a core alternative for maturing deposits [2][3]. Group 2: Insurance Sector Developments - The insurance industry is transitioning from a focus on scale to high-quality development, with products like dividend insurance and annuities evolving to better meet the stable financial needs of residents [3]. - The regulatory framework established by the Financial Regulatory Bureau in March 2025 emphasizes the importance of understanding products and customers, which supports the standardized development of bank-insurance cooperation [3]. - The insurance sector is leveraging its product advantages to enhance the product offerings of banks, thereby helping banks increase intermediary income and alleviate margin pressure [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Trends - The current environment reflects a deepening of financial supply-side reforms, with financial institutions returning to their core mission of serving the real economy [4]. - The trend of interest rate marketization is becoming the new normal, with a long-term downward trajectory, while residents are increasingly seeking diversified investment options beyond traditional deposits [4]. - The future of bank-insurance sales is expected to trend towards standardization, refinement, diversification, and integration, driven by macroeconomic factors and evolving consumer needs [4].

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, a record 32 trillion yuan of residential time deposits will mature, with over 60% concentrated in the first quarter, prompting questions about the future allocation of these funds [2][8]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Changes - The central bank continues to implement a prudent monetary policy, lowering the re-lending and rediscount rates to guide market interest rates downwards, with a recent reduction of 0.25 percentage points announced on January 15, 2026 [2][9]. - As deposit yields decline and interest margin pressures increase, banks are shifting their focus from "retaining deposits" to "activating funds and enhancing intermediary income" [9][10]. Group 2: Insurance Products and Market Adaptation - Savings-type insurance products are becoming increasingly attractive due to their long-term interest rate locking and dual benefits of protection and savings, aligning with banks' transformation needs and residents' demand for stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment [9][10]. - The insurance sector is experiencing significant growth in the bancassurance channel, with reported premium income of 1.03 billion yuan for regular premiums and 1.096 billion yuan for lump-sum premiums in January, marking year-on-year increases of 34% and 24%, respectively [3][9]. Group 3: Industry Transformation and Regulatory Environment - The insurance industry is transitioning from a focus on scale to a focus on quality, with ongoing optimization of savings-type insurance products to better meet residents' stable financial management needs [10][11]. - The regulatory framework established by the Financial Regulatory Bureau in March 2025 emphasizes the importance of understanding products and customers, promoting compliance and suitability in bancassurance partnerships [10][11]. Group 4: Future Trends and Challenges - The future of bancassurance is expected to trend towards standardization, refinement, diversification, and integration, driven by macroeconomic factors such as financial supply-side reform and the increasing demand for diversified wealth management [5][11]. - Challenges remain, including the risk of inadequate customer demand analysis and product customization, which could hinder the effectiveness of bancassurance partnerships [11].

Core Insights - The insurance industry is projected to achieve a total original insurance premium income of 6.12 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.43%, which is a slowdown compared to the double-digit growth in 2024 [1] Group 1: Life Insurance Sector - The life insurance sector is expected to generate original insurance premium income of 4.65 trillion yuan, accounting for 75.97% of the total, with a year-on-year growth of 9.05%, making it the main driver of growth [3] - The growth in life insurance premiums is primarily driven by savings demand, with a notable increase in the sales of participating insurance products, which are favored for their dual role in protection and savings [4] - The total premium income from life insurance companies reached 4.36 trillion yuan, with specific segments showing varied performance: traditional life insurance at 3.56 trillion yuan (up 11.4%), accident insurance at 368 billion yuan (down 9.8%), and health insurance at 769.9 billion yuan (down 0.41%) [3][4] Group 2: Investment and Policy Changes - New policy changes, such as the reduction of the maximum guaranteed interest rate for ordinary life insurance products from 2.5% to 2%, have led to a surge in demand as consumers rushed to secure higher returns before the policy took effect [4] - The demand for universal life insurance products remains stable, with new investment contributions increasing by 3.84%, indicating a strong interest in products that offer both returns and flexibility [4] Group 3: Property Insurance Sector - The property insurance sector achieved original insurance premium income of 1.76 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.92%, while the growth rate for auto insurance premiums slowed to 2.98%, accounting for 53.55% of total premiums [6] - Non-auto insurance premiums grew by 5%, with specific segments such as liability insurance, agricultural insurance, health insurance, and accident insurance showing positive growth rates [7] - The health insurance premium income from both life and property insurance companies reached 9.973 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 2.04%, nearing the 1 trillion yuan milestone [7][8] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The growth in health insurance premiums shows a significant divergence between life and property insurance companies, attributed to differences in legal attributes, product structures, and regulatory adaptability [8] - Property insurance companies have seen rapid growth in short-term health insurance products, benefiting from government-backed initiatives and the ability to leverage online sales channels [8]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is experiencing a strong recovery in the bancassurance channel, which has become a core pillar supporting industry growth, with a projected 10% year-on-year increase in premium income from this channel in 2025. However, this recovery is characterized by a polarized growth pattern, with leading insurers showing significant gains while smaller firms struggle [1][11]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - The "old seven" life insurance companies are expected to see a 48% year-on-year growth, with Ping An Life leading at a remarkable 163% increase in premium income from the bancassurance channel [1][3]. - The bancassurance channel's average commission level has decreased by approximately 30% following the implementation of the "reporting and banking integration" policy, which has shifted the focus from cost-driven competition to demand-driven and product-driven strategies [3][13]. - The overall growth rate for the bancassurance channel is projected to be around 10% in 2025, with the market share of the "old seven" companies increasing to 36% [3][14]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with larger insurers leveraging their resource advantages and channel strengths to capture market opportunities, while smaller firms face challenges in resource allocation [2][12]. - The bancassurance channel has seen a compound annual growth rate of 16.2% from 2019 to 2023, while standard premium income from bancassurance and individual insurance has declined by 4.9% and 10.9%, respectively [2][12]. - The removal of the "1+3" restriction on bank- insurer partnerships has allowed leading firms to accelerate their acquisition of quality bank resources, further enhancing their market position [4][14]. Group 3: Performance of Key Players - Ping An Life's bancassurance channel new business value grew by 170.9% in the first three quarters of 2025, contributing 35.1% to the company's overall new business value [7][17]. - China CITIC Insurance and other firms have achieved significant growth, with CITIC Insurance's new business scale premium surpassing 11.5 billion yuan, marking a 141% year-on-year increase [8][18]. - MetLife has established partnerships with over 20 banks, focusing on high-net-worth clients and aiming for long-term, value-driven development in its bancassurance operations [9][19]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The outlook for the bancassurance channel in 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of a 30% increase in new premium income driven by the reallocation of household savings and strategic positioning by insurers [6][16]. - The projected incremental funds for the bancassurance channel in 2026 are expected to show a "high first, low later" trend, with significant contributions in the first quarter due to the timing of household savings [6][16]. - The ongoing trend of market differentiation will likely continue, with firms that possess comprehensive service capabilities and differentiated competitive advantages expected to lead the market [10][19].

Core Viewpoint - The trend of insurance capital "shareholding" is expected to continue into 2026, driven by the focus on high dividend stocks and the need for long-term equity investments to enhance return on equity (ROE) [2][18]. Group 1: Recent Trends in Insurance Capital Shareholding - In 2025, insurance capital shareholding reached 41 instances, a significant increase from 20 in 2024, marking a new high in the past decade [2][3]. - The current wave of shareholding differs from the past, as it is influenced by a low interest rate environment and the need for stable cash returns through high dividend stocks [5][14]. - Analysts indicate that the demand for high dividend and high ROE stocks will persist, suggesting that the shareholding trend will continue [18]. Group 2: Characteristics of the Current Shareholding Wave - The shareholding activities are more diversified compared to previous years, with "Ping An" leading with 15 instances, primarily targeting bank and insurance stocks [11][12]. - Bank stocks were the most favored, being targeted 17 times, accounting for 41.5% of total shareholding instances in 2025 [13][14]. - The average dividend yield of the targeted companies was approximately 5.0%, higher than previous waves, indicating a preference for high-yield investments [15]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Regulatory Environment - The new accounting standards implemented in 2023 require insurance companies to choose between FVTPL and FVOCI for stock investments, influencing their investment strategies [6][7]. - The regulatory environment has encouraged long-term capital market participation, enhancing the attractiveness of shareholding for insurance companies [7][18]. - The investment strategy includes a focus on high ROE assets, particularly state-owned enterprises with stable business models, to improve the overall ROE of insurance capital [17].

Investment Logic - The core view is that new individual insurance premiums for listed insurance companies are expected to achieve double-digit growth by 2026, primarily driven by the bancassurance channel [1][18] - The individual insurance channel is anticipated to maintain steady growth, while the bancassurance channel will benefit from the migration of deposits, leading to an increase in market share for large insurance companies [1][18] - The growth in the bancassurance channel is expected to dilute fixed costs, significantly enhancing overall profitability [1][18] Bancassurance Channel - Since 2020, leading insurance companies have refocused on the bancassurance channel, transitioning from scale compensation to value pursuit, resulting in a rise in market share [2][8] - The bancassurance channel has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.2% from 2019 to 2023, while individual insurance premiums have declined [9] - The "reporting and banking integration" policy implemented in August 2023 has significantly reduced costs, enhancing the value rate of the bancassurance channel [14][9] Customer Deposit Analysis - A survey of 88 frontline bank wealth managers indicates that a significant portion of residents' deposits will mature in 2026, with expectations of low renewal rates due to the withdrawal of high-yield time deposits [3][25] - The majority of maturing depositors are aged 45 and above, indicating a lower risk appetite, with insurance products being the second choice for reallocating maturing deposits [4][30] - Wealth managers believe that bank wealth management products will be the most accepted option for maturing deposits, followed by insurance products [30][27] Sales Logic for Insurance Products - Wealth managers prioritize customer returns and the brand of insurance companies when recommending insurance products [5][33] - The core advantages of participating in dividend insurance sales include stable returns, capital safety, and alignment with long-term financial planning [36][40] - Challenges in selling dividend insurance include uncertainty in returns and the long duration of products, which may deter potential customers [40][36] Market Forecast - The insurance industry is projected to see new single premium growth exceeding 25% in 2026, driven by the bancassurance channel [42][44] - The expected influx of maturing deposits into insurance products will be significant, with estimates of new funds in the bancassurance channel reaching 11,150 billion by the end of 2026 [44][44] - The concentration trend among leading insurance companies is expected to continue, with larger firms benefiting from improved profitability in the bancassurance channel [47][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating, recommending continued active investment in the insurance sector due to expected double-digit growth in new premiums driven by the bancassurance channel [5]. Core Insights - The insurance industry is projected to achieve double-digit growth in new premiums by 2026, primarily driven by the bancassurance channel, which benefits from the migration of deposits and the competitive advantages of large insurance companies [1][26]. - The bancassurance channel has seen a significant increase in market share, with the "old seven" insurance companies' new premium market share rising from 8.2% in 2019 to 23.8% in 2023, and expected to reach 26.0% in 2024 [2][22]. - A survey of 88 frontline bank wealth managers indicates that a substantial portion of household deposits will mature in 2026, with expectations that many will not be renewed, leading to a shift towards insurance products [3][35]. - The demographic of clients with maturing deposits is predominantly older, with a lower risk appetite, making insurance products a preferred option for reallocating funds [4][40]. - The report highlights that the bancassurance channel's growth will significantly enhance the overall profitability of large insurance companies by spreading fixed costs over a larger premium base [1][26]. Summary by Sections Bancassurance Channel - The bancassurance channel is identified as the main driver of value growth in the insurance industry for 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.2% from 2019 to 2023 [12]. - The report notes that the shift in focus from individual insurance channels to bancassurance began in 2020, driven by the need to compensate for declining individual premium growth [2][12]. Bank Wealth Manager Survey Analysis - The survey indicates that a significant portion of maturing deposits will not be renewed, with expectations that 50% of clients will have deposits maturing in the 10%-30% and 30%-50% ranges [3][35]. - Wealth managers believe that the most acceptable financial products for clients will be bank wealth management and insurance, with insurance ranking second [4][40]. Projections for 2026 - The report estimates that the new premium growth rate for the bancassurance channel will exceed 25% in 2026, with expected incremental funds of 3,057 billion in January, 5,094 billion in Q1, and 11,150 billion for the entire year [5][62]. - The anticipated growth is attributed to the large volume of maturing deposits and the expected shift towards insurance products due to lower renewal rates for traditional bank deposits [60].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is expected to see robust growth in the individual insurance channel and significant benefits from the bancassurance channel, driven by the migration of deposits and the proactive expansion of large insurance companies in the bancassurance market, leading to an increase in market share by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Insurance Premium Growth - It is anticipated that new insurance premiums from listed insurance companies will achieve double-digit growth by 2026, primarily driven by the bancassurance channel [2]. - The growth in scale will dilute fixed costs, particularly in the bancassurance channel, resulting in overall profit enhancement [2]. - Since 2020, leading insurance companies have refocused on the bancassurance channel, leading to a 15.6 percentage point increase in market share from 2019 to 2023, reaching 23.8% [2]. Group 2: Customer Behavior and Preferences - A survey of 88 frontline bank wealth managers indicates that a significant portion of residents will have maturing deposits in 2026, with 50% of respondents expecting 10%-30% and 27.3% expecting 30%-50% of their clients' deposits to mature [3]. - The overall age of customers with maturing deposits is skewed towards older demographics, with a lower risk appetite, making insurance products the second choice for reallocating maturing deposits [4]. - Wealth managers prioritize customer returns and the brand of insurance companies when recommending insurance products, with customer returns rated highest at 5.5 points [5]. Group 3: Bancassurance Channel Dynamics - The bancassurance channel is projected to see significant inflows, with estimated incremental funds of 3,057 billion, 5,094 billion, and 11,150 billion for January, Q1, and the entire year of 2026, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 91%, 59%, and 28% [5]. - The growth rate is expected to be higher for leading insurance companies, continuing the trend of concentration in the bancassurance channel [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The insurance sector is recommended for active investment, with expectations of sustained high growth in the liability side and favorable market conditions for assets [6]. - The anticipated growth in the bancassurance channel, coupled with a favorable environment for stock markets and interest rates, is expected to support the expansion of large insurance companies [6].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is expected to enter a "golden development period" as the attractiveness of insurance products increases due to the transformation of dividend insurance and the ongoing demand for pension and health protection, leading to improvements in both new premium income and investment returns [1][2]. Group 1: Insurance Product Appeal - The transformation of dividend insurance is enhancing the attractiveness of insurance products, while the demand for pension and health protection continues to grow, leading to a stable return rate advantage for insurance products [2][4]. - By 2026, the insurance sector is anticipated to see a stabilization and recovery in new individual insurance premiums, supported by the dual-channel approach of banks and insurance companies [2][3]. Group 2: Market Trends and Projections - The proportion of total premiums is projected to increase from 15.8% in 2022 to 22.4% by 2025, reflecting a cumulative increase of 6.6 percentage points over three years [3]. - The share of insurance premiums in household deposits is expected to rise, with a decrease in household deposits from 66.2% to 64.5% and an increase in premium stock from 12.5% to 14.1% between December 2023 and November 2025 [3]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The ongoing transformation of dividend insurance is expected to enhance product competitiveness, with "insurance+" products providing unique barriers to entry [4]. - The demand for pension and health protection is anticipated to continue to grow, establishing a solid foundation for the insurance industry's "golden" development phase [4].