Core Viewpoint - The once-popular "ugly shoes" are facing significant challenges, with UGG's direct-to-consumer sales declining sharply, while HOKA continues to show strong growth [2][5]. Group 1: Deckers Brands Financial Performance - Deckers Brands reported a revenue increase of 9.1% to $1.431 billion for Q2 of FY2026, with HOKA's revenue growing by 11.1% to $630 million and UGG's revenue increasing by 10.1% to $760 million [5]. - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales for UGG fell by 10%, while wholesale business grew by 17%, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [5][7]. - Deckers' total sales contributions from UGG and HOKA are 51% and 45%, respectively, with HOKA nearly matching UGG's scale [7]. Group 2: Market Challenges for UGG and Crocs - UGG's DTC sales decline is attributed to normalized inventory levels in wholesale channels, weakened consumer sentiment, and a preference for multi-brand retail shopping [5]. - Crocs reported a revenue decline of 6.2% to $996.3 million for Q3, with a net profit drop of 27% to $145.8 million, and a net loss of $186.4 million for the first nine months of the year [9][11]. - Crocs' core brand revenue decreased by 2.5% to $836.2 million, while the HEYDUDE brand saw a 21.6% drop to $160.1 million [11]. Group 3: Strategic Responses and Market Trends - Crocs plans to slow growth to maintain long-term brand health, including reducing digital promotions and wholesale inventory [11]. - The market for "ugly shoes" is losing traction, with emerging categories like clogs and creek shoes gaining popularity, while traditional sports brands are expected to benefit from upcoming major sporting events [12]. - HOKA's strategy of being versatile across different settings is seen as more sustainable compared to the marketing-driven approach of UGG and Crocs [12].

Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid evolution of footwear preferences among young consumers, highlighting the decline of Crocs and the rise of Birkenstock and creek shoes as new trends in the market [4][5][6]. Group 1: Decline of Crocs - Crocs, once a symbol of "ugly fashion," generated $20 billion in revenue in 2023 but has seen a significant decline in growth, with revenue growth rates dropping from 14.6% in Q1 2024 to just 2.4% in Q1 2025 [7][10]. - The decline is attributed to a failure of "ugly fashion" to sustain itself as a cultural movement, with the brand's initial appeal being undermined by mainstream adoption and a shift in consumer preferences towards more expressive footwear [8][10]. - Crocs faces increased competition from cheaper alternatives on e-commerce platforms, which challenges its positioning as a "functional luxury" brand [10][11]. Group 2: Rise of Birkenstock - Birkenstock has capitalized on the decline of Crocs, with revenue increasing from under €300 million to €1.805 billion by the end of the 2024 fiscal year, driven by a 42% growth in the Asia-Pacific market [15][16]. - The brand's success is linked to its appeal to middle-class consumers, leveraging high-quality European production and ergonomic design to create a cultural and health-oriented identity [16][20]. - Despite its popularity, Birkenstock may not dominate the middle-class footwear market due to limited design variety and potential for consumer fatigue [18][20]. Group 3: Emergence of Creek Shoes - Creek shoes have gained traction among young consumers engaged in outdoor activities, with brands like KEEN leading the high-end market segment [21][22]. - The creek shoe market is characterized by a blend of functionality and fashion, with various brands offering products at different price points, from high-end to budget options [24][26]. - However, the creek shoe market faces challenges, including low repurchase rates and the risk of becoming a passing trend if consumer demand is primarily driven by fashion rather than functionality [27][28]. Group 4: Future Trends in Footwear - The article suggests that the next popular footwear trend may emerge from a combination of easily perceived functional value (comfort) and difficult-to-replicate cultural barriers (health or rebellion) [36]. - Young consumers are increasingly looking for versatile footwear that can adapt to various occasions, indicating a shift towards multifunctional designs [36][38]. - The evolving landscape of footwear reflects broader changes in consumer behavior, where identity and social value play significant roles in purchasing decisions [36][38].