以下文章来源于商业弧光 ，作者柳柳 商业弧光 . 听风者，捕光人，最准点的商业节拍 出品｜虎嗅商业消费组 作者｜柳柳 编辑｜苗正卿 题图｜KEEN 年轻人鞋柜里的顶流迭代迅速，曾风靡一时的Crocs洞洞鞋式微，Birkenstock勃肯鞋接棒上位。如今，薄底鞋、芭蕾鞋、溯溪鞋风头正劲，上演着一场 静默革命。 在"错鞋理论"里，建立个人风格，只需选择最意想不到的鞋子来完成穿搭。主体基调都是，不遵循规则，去表达自我，这或许是每一款爆款崛起与退潮 的底层原因：洞洞鞋和勃肯鞋的生存法则是"丑时尚"。薄底鞋继2024年爆火后2025年热度延续，其中芭蕾鞋被很多奢侈品牌看中布局。溯溪鞋，这种 专为户外涉水设计的透气功能性鞋履，不经意间成为年轻人街头巷尾的新宠。 年轻人对鞋的喜好更迭之快，总令人捉摸不透。到底是谁在拿捏他们的鞋柜？ 丑鞋洞洞鞋为何不火了？ 凭借 "洞门文化"，洞洞鞋鼻祖Crocs曾在2023年创造过营收200亿美元的商业神话，成为校园里的潮流符号。 然而，最近一年，市场表现尽显颓势。2024年四个季度，Crocs的营收同比增速分别为14.6%、9.7%、7.4%、4.0%，下滑趋势明显。2025 年一季度， ...

出品｜虎嗅商业消费组 年轻人鞋柜里的顶流迭代迅速，曾风靡一时的Crocs洞洞鞋式微，Birkenstock勃肯鞋接棒上位。如今，薄底鞋、芭蕾鞋、溯溪鞋风头正劲，上演着一场静默 革命。 在"错鞋理论"里，建立个人风格，只需选择最意想不到的鞋子来完成穿搭。主体基调都是，不遵循规则，去表达自我，这或许是每一款爆款崛起与退潮的底 层原因：洞洞鞋和勃肯鞋的生存法则是"丑时尚"。薄底鞋继2024年爆火后2025年热度延续，其中芭蕾鞋被很多奢侈品牌看中布局。溯溪鞋，这种专为户外涉 水设计的透气功能性鞋履，不经意间成为年轻人街头巷尾的新宠。 年轻人对鞋的喜好更迭之快，总令人捉摸不透。到底是谁在拿捏他们的鞋柜？ 更深层的危机在于价值体系的崩塌。Crocs自身的定价与市场竞争的矛盾加剧困境。电商平台上 39 元的平替款大量出现，让千元内价位的Crocs，试图打造 的"功能性轻奢"定位不堪一击。 Crocs自身的业务决策与运营问题更是难辞其咎，此前收购意大利休闲鞋品牌HEYDUDE导致的库存压力与关税增加相互叠加，推高运营成本，拖累业绩。 不过，Crocs天猫旗舰店目前仍保持着10%的增长，这揭示了一个现实：洞洞鞋并未真正消失，只 ...

Core Viewpoint - Crocs, the leading brand in the clogs market, has issued a revenue guidance indicating a projected year-over-year decline of 9% to 11% for Q3 2025, signaling a potential downturn in the popularity of clogs [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Following the revenue guidance, Crocs' stock price plummeted nearly 30%, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately $4 billion, which is nearly half of its peak value in 2024 [2]. - The decline in Crocs' performance reflects a broader trend in the clog market, suggesting that the once-popular footwear is experiencing a decline in consumer interest [3][4]. Group 2: Consumer Experience and Safety Concerns - Consumers of clogs face multiple safety risks, including ankle sprains, falls, being caught in escalators, and potential shrinkage of the shoes due to heat [5][16]. - Specific incidents highlight these risks, such as a consumer spraining an ankle after stepping on a loose manhole cover while wearing Crocs [7], and another experiencing multiple falls due to the lack of grip on slippery surfaces [9][18]. - The design of clogs, which often includes high heels and thick soles, compromises stability and increases the likelihood of accidents [18][21]. Group 3: Market Trends and Alternatives - The popularity of clogs is waning, with consumers increasingly seeking alternatives that offer better safety features and comfort, such as creek shoes [27]. - Sales data indicates a significant rise in creek shoe sales, with a 50% increase since June 2025 and a 75% increase in transaction value on platforms like Tmall [29]. - The global sandal market is also expanding, projected to grow from $32.6 billion in 2024 to $44.81 billion by 2033, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards safer and more functional footwear options [29].

Financial Sector - In July, household deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 2.14 trillion yuan in deposits, surpassing levels from the same period in 2015 [6][7] - The People's Bank of China and financial regulators are seeking public opinion on new anti-money laundering regulations, which would no longer require the source or purpose of cash withdrawals over 50,000 yuan to be questioned [8] Real Estate - In July, 68 cities experienced a decline in second-hand housing prices, while 60 cities saw new housing prices drop [11] - China Evergrande Group announced its delisting from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange effective August 25 due to failure to meet listing requirements [12] Consumer Goods - Wahaha is optimizing its distribution network by cutting ties with distributors generating less than 3 million yuan in annual sales, while expanding production capacity with a new 1 billion yuan project [9] - Crocs reported a significant operational loss of 427.5 million dollars in Q2 2025, leading to a nearly 30% drop in stock price, reaching a three-year low [18][19] E-commerce - The 2025 Cross-Border E-commerce Trade Fair opened in Guangzhou, with 35 Thai companies participating to learn from China's e-commerce practices [10] Automotive - Zeekr Technology reported a record high in gross margin for Q2 2025, with revenue reaching 27.431 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.9% [16] - Dongfeng Motor Corporation is undergoing significant restructuring, establishing a new technology company and making strategic personnel adjustments to enhance operational efficiency [17] Beverage Industry - Kweichow Moutai reported a total revenue of over 91 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with overseas revenue increasing at a double-digit rate [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - Crocs, once a leading brand in the clogs market, is currently facing significant challenges, including a projected revenue decline and substantial financial losses due to various internal and external factors [2][4]. Financial Performance - Crocs has issued a revenue warning, expecting a year-over-year decline of 9%-11% for Q3, leading to a nearly 30% drop in stock price and a market cap loss of $4.17 billion [2]. - The company reported a net loss of $492.3 million in Q2, primarily due to a failed acquisition of the brand HEYDUDE, which resulted in a $700 million impairment charge [4]. Market Dynamics - The growth rate of Crocs' main brand plummeted from 14.6% in Q1 2024 to 2.4% in Q1 2025, with the North American market experiencing a negative growth of 3.8% [3]. - The competitive landscape has intensified, with low-cost alternatives from brands like Skechers and domestic competitors significantly impacting Crocs' market share [5]. Consumer Behavior - Changes in consumer preferences have led to a decline in foot traffic to retail stores, with a 40% drop in the promotional section of Crocs' website [5]. - The perception of Crocs as a "home slipper" has limited its appeal in professional and formal settings, leading to seasonal sales fluctuations [6]. Product Lifecycle and Innovation - Crocs faces a paradox in product lifecycle, as the durability of its shoes has reduced repeat purchase demand, with consumers joking that they can wear a pair for a lifetime [6]. - The brand's reliance on a single classic model and lack of innovation in core materials have hindered its ability to address key consumer pain points [5]. Market Trends - Despite Crocs' struggles, the clogs category remains vibrant, with significant social media engagement and a shift in consumer attitudes towards comfort and versatility in footwear [7]. - The Chinese market showed promise with a growth rate exceeding 60% in 2024, but price-sensitive consumers often opt for cheaper alternatives [7][8].

中国商报（记者 于佳鑫 文/图）继2025年第一季度撤回全年财务展望后，近日，"洞洞鞋鼻祖"卡洛驰母公司最新披露的第二季度财报再度展现了 不安的信号——虽然第二季度公司收入实现同比增长，但净利润出现大幅亏损，且第三季度收入预计下降9%至11%。这也是近两年来该公司给出 的财务展望中，预计收入下滑幅度最明显的一次。 曾经风靡一时的洞洞鞋"卖不动"了吗？ 另一专注于舒适鞋类的品牌HEYDUDE在报告期内的收入同比下降3.9%至1.9亿美元，按固定汇率计算下降4.2%，其中DTC收入增长7.6%至9000 万美元，按固定汇率计算增长7.5%；批发收入下降12.4%至1亿美元，按固定汇率计算下降12.8%。 与营收增长形成反差的是，财报数据显示，卡洛驰第二季度净利润亏损4.92亿美元，而2024年同期净利润为2.29亿美元，亏损主要源于 HEYDUDE品牌相关的非现金减值损失。 2022年2月，卡洛驰公司完成了对HEYDUDE品牌的收购。2023年，其收入实现正增长，但2024年以来，该品牌收入整体呈下滑趋势，去年全年 收入下降13.2%至8.24亿美元，今年第一季度收入下降9.8%至1.76亿美元，按固定汇率计算下 ...

Core Viewpoint - Crocs, once a leader in the clog market, is facing significant challenges, including declining sales and increased competition from lower-priced alternatives, leading to a substantial drop in stock price and market value [3][4][5]. Financial Performance - Crocs issued a revenue warning, expecting a 9%-11% year-over-year decline in Q3 revenue, resulting in a nearly 30% drop in stock price on August 7, 2023, and a market value loss of $4.17 billion [3]. - The company reported a net loss of $492.3 million in Q2, primarily due to a failed acquisition of the brand HEYDUDE, which led to a $700 million impairment charge [5]. Market Dynamics - The North American market for Crocs has seen a negative growth of 3.8%, with a significant decline in foot traffic in wholesale and outlet channels [4][6]. - Increased competition from brands like Skechers and domestic brands offering lower-priced clogs has intensified market pressure, with some products priced as low as 39.9 yuan [6][7]. Consumer Behavior - Consumer preferences have shifted, with a growing demand for multi-functional footwear that can be worn in various settings, while Crocs is often perceived as a casual home shoe [7][9]. - The durability of Crocs products has led to reduced repurchase rates, as consumers report that a pair can last for years [7]. Brand Positioning - Crocs has struggled with innovation, relying heavily on a single classic model and failing to upgrade its core material, Croslite™ [6][8]. - The brand's marketing strategies, including collaborations, have lost their appeal, resulting in poor sales of new products [6][8]. Industry Trends - Despite Crocs' struggles, the clog category remains vibrant, with significant social media engagement and a trend towards DIY customization among younger consumers [9]. - The Chinese market showed promise with a growth rate exceeding 60% in 2024, but price-sensitive consumers often opt for cheaper alternatives [9][10].

作者 | 王小娟 编辑 | 黄昱 过去几年，洞洞鞋被年轻人捧成人手一双的出门万能鞋。然而，作为洞洞鞋领域的鼻祖，Crocs最近并 不好过。 近日，Crocs公司发布业绩预警：预计第三季度营收同比下降9%-11%。消息一出，市场反应剧烈——美 东时间8月7日，股价单日暴跌近30%，创下近14年最大跌幅，市值蒸发41.7亿美元。 CrocsCEO安德鲁·里斯在财报电话会议上难掩焦虑："消费者如今连商店的门都不进了。"这句话揭开了 洞洞鞋巨头跌落神坛的残酷现实。 而时间倒回2006年，Crocs登陆纳斯达克时风光无限，创下鞋企IPO上市首日股价涨幅最高纪录。近几 年，帆船运动专用的洞洞橡胶鞋，凭借独特的"踩屎感"舒适度迅速征服大众，掀起"丑到极致就是潮"的 消费革命，被全世界各地的年轻人捧上神坛。 在巅峰时期，一双普通款Crocs售价高达2000元，镶钻联名款标价9999元仍供不应求。2023年，Crocs保 持着行业神话——全年销量1.2亿双，利润高达7.93亿美元。 然而辉煌难以持续。Crocs2025年一季度财报显示，Crocs主品牌增速从2024年同期的14.6%暴跌至 2.4%，北美市场甚至出现3.8%的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The impact of U.S. tariffs on domestic retail companies is becoming increasingly evident, with companies like Crocs predicting a decline in revenue due to cautious consumer spending and rising costs associated with tariffs [3][4]. Group 1: Company-Specific Impacts - Crocs anticipates a year-over-year revenue decline in Q3, contrary to analyst expectations of slight growth, attributing this to reduced consumer spending on non-essential items and concerns over price increases [3]. - The company estimates that the new costs from tariffs will reach $40 million in the second half of the year, totaling approximately $90 million for the entire year, equivalent to about 647 million RMB [3]. - Following the announcement, Crocs' stock plummeted nearly 30%, marking its largest single-day drop in 14 years [4]. Group 2: Broader Industry Effects - Nike has indicated that U.S. tariffs will add $1 billion in costs, while GAP expects an increase of $250 million to $300 million [6]. - Deckers, which owns brands like UGG and Hoka, reported a slowdown in U.S. sales growth from approximately 11% to 2.8% and warned of profit margin pressures due to tariff uncertainties [6]. - Deckers' stock fell nearly 20% after the news [7]. Group 3: International Brands - Puma's stock dropped 18.4% on July 25, following a disappointing earnings forecast that projected a "low double-digit percentage" decline in sales and potential operating losses due to U.S. tariffs [9]. - Puma estimates that U.S. tariffs will result in a gross profit loss of about €80 million in FY2025 [9]. - Adidas, despite reporting growth in the first half of the year, anticipates an additional cost of up to €200 million (approximately 157 million RMB) due to tariffs in the remaining part of the year [9]. Group 4: Pricing Strategies - Some companies are absorbing tariff-related costs to maintain market share, while others are considering price increases for U.S. consumers [10]. - Nike announced price hikes for U.S. products in response to tariff impacts, and Adidas also plans to raise prices due to increased costs from tariffs [11]. - Fast Retailing, the parent company of Uniqlo, indicated that it would adjust prices flexibly in light of tariffs, stating that raising prices is the only option available [11].

Group 1: Company Announcements - Kewei Medical plans to issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and brand image [1] - Shuangdeng Group has passed the listing hearing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with joint sponsors including CICC, Huatai International, and Jianyin International [2] Group 2: Financial Issues and Consumer Concerns - Zhonggong Education faces criticism for a refund policy that could take 17 years to process, attributed to financial chain issues [3] - ST Gaohong is under investigation for serious financial fraud, with a proposed fine of 160 million yuan and potential delisting risks [4] - Crocs' stock plummeted nearly 30% after announcing expected revenue declines due to cautious consumer spending and increased tariffs, with an estimated additional cost of $40 million in the second half of the year [5] Group 3: Real Estate Trends - In Hegang, the average price of new commercial housing has risen from 3046 yuan/m² to 3860 yuan/m² over five years, with a significant increase in transactions from 1134 units in 2019 to 5680 units in 2024 [4] Group 4: Market Insights - A survey indicates that only about one-third of large Japanese companies expect economic growth due to uncertainties from U.S. tariffs, a significant drop from 70% earlier in the year [9][10] - The U.S. government’s tax credit for electric vehicles is set to end, leading to a surge in electric vehicle sales, which reached a record 9.1% of total passenger car sales in July [11]