以下文章来源于商业弧光 ，作者柳柳 商业弧光 . 听风者，捕光人，最准点的商业节拍 出品｜虎嗅商业消费组 作者｜柳柳 编辑｜苗正卿 题图｜KEEN 年轻人鞋柜里的顶流迭代迅速，曾风靡一时的Crocs洞洞鞋式微，Birkenstock勃肯鞋接棒上位。如今，薄底鞋、芭蕾鞋、溯溪鞋风头正劲，上演着一场 静默革命。 在"错鞋理论"里，建立个人风格，只需选择最意想不到的鞋子来完成穿搭。主体基调都是，不遵循规则，去表达自我，这或许是每一款爆款崛起与退潮 的底层原因：洞洞鞋和勃肯鞋的生存法则是"丑时尚"。薄底鞋继2024年爆火后2025年热度延续，其中芭蕾鞋被很多奢侈品牌看中布局。溯溪鞋，这种 专为户外涉水设计的透气功能性鞋履，不经意间成为年轻人街头巷尾的新宠。 年轻人对鞋的喜好更迭之快，总令人捉摸不透。到底是谁在拿捏他们的鞋柜？ 丑鞋洞洞鞋为何不火了？ 凭借 "洞门文化"，洞洞鞋鼻祖Crocs曾在2023年创造过营收200亿美元的商业神话，成为校园里的潮流符号。 然而，最近一年，市场表现尽显颓势。2024年四个季度，Crocs的营收同比增速分别为14.6%、9.7%、7.4%、4.0%，下滑趋势明显。2025 年一季度， ...

出品｜虎嗅商业消费组 年轻人鞋柜里的顶流迭代迅速，曾风靡一时的Crocs洞洞鞋式微，Birkenstock勃肯鞋接棒上位。如今，薄底鞋、芭蕾鞋、溯溪鞋风头正劲，上演着一场静默 革命。 在"错鞋理论"里，建立个人风格，只需选择最意想不到的鞋子来完成穿搭。主体基调都是，不遵循规则，去表达自我，这或许是每一款爆款崛起与退潮的底 层原因：洞洞鞋和勃肯鞋的生存法则是"丑时尚"。薄底鞋继2024年爆火后2025年热度延续，其中芭蕾鞋被很多奢侈品牌看中布局。溯溪鞋，这种专为户外涉 水设计的透气功能性鞋履，不经意间成为年轻人街头巷尾的新宠。 年轻人对鞋的喜好更迭之快，总令人捉摸不透。到底是谁在拿捏他们的鞋柜？ 更深层的危机在于价值体系的崩塌。Crocs自身的定价与市场竞争的矛盾加剧困境。电商平台上 39 元的平替款大量出现，让千元内价位的Crocs，试图打造 的"功能性轻奢"定位不堪一击。 Crocs自身的业务决策与运营问题更是难辞其咎，此前收购意大利休闲鞋品牌HEYDUDE导致的库存压力与关税增加相互叠加，推高运营成本，拖累业绩。 不过，Crocs天猫旗舰店目前仍保持着10%的增长，这揭示了一个现实：洞洞鞋并未真正消失，只 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the textile and apparel industry, highlighting potential growth opportunities in the domestic market and specific companies [2]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index declining by 1.4% from August 8 to 15, lagging behind the SW All A index by 4.5 percentage points [3][4]. - Key industry data indicates that from January to July, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles reached 837.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [3][25]. - Exports of textiles and apparel totaled 170.74 billion USD from January to July, showing a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, with textile exports rising by 1.6% and apparel exports declining by 0.3% [3][30]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - Bylon Oriental's H1 2025 profits exceeded expectations, with revenue of 3.59 billion yuan (down 10% year-on-year) and a net profit of 390 million yuan (up 67.5% year-on-year) [9]. - The USDA's August report significantly reduced the global cotton production forecast for 2025/26, indicating a contraction in supply that may support cotton prices [9][10]. - The report continues to recommend Nobon Co., which operates in the non-woven cleaning products sector, highlighting its growth potential due to partnerships with major clients [10]. Apparel Sector - 361 Degrees reported a 11% year-on-year revenue increase to 5.7 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit growth of 9% to 860 million yuan [11][22]. - The company improved its operating cash flow by 227% year-on-year to 520 million yuan, attributed to reduced inventory and slower growth in accounts receivable [11]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the sportswear segment in domestic demand and suggests monitoring future performance catalysts [11]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the domestic market is showing signs of recovery, with quality domestic brands beginning to reverse their previous downturns [3]. - It highlights the importance of the U.S. tariff situation and its impact on textile manufacturing, suggesting that companies with strong supply chain positions may benefit from a favorable trade environment [10]. - The report also points out the ongoing challenges in the apparel sector, particularly with brands like Adidas and Nike facing declining sales in the Chinese market [12][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of "ugly shoes" as a fashion trend among young people, highlighting a shift from traditional stylish footwear to more comfortable and unconventional designs that prioritize comfort over aesthetics [7][8][9]. Group 1: Trends in Footwear - The year 2024 has been declared the year of ugly shoes, with a notable shift in fashion preferences from stylish high heels to comfortable, unconventional footwear [7][8]. - Young people are increasingly embracing various forms of slip-on shoes, including clogs, Ugg boots, and chef shoes, which are now considered fashionable [11][20]. - The trend is characterized by a focus on comfort, with shoes becoming flatter, wider, and more casual, reflecting a broader cultural shift away from traditional fashion norms [90][93]. Group 2: Specific Shoe Types - Ballet flats and thin-soled shoes have gained popularity, with brands like Adidas and Puma leading the trend, often associated with K-pop idols [24][26]. - The emergence of fishnet shoes and five-toe shoes has created a new niche in the market, appealing to young consumers looking for unique and functional designs [20][41]. - Brands like KEEN have capitalized on the trend of outdoor and functional footwear, which has become fashionable in urban settings, despite their originally intended use for outdoor activities [66][73]. Group 3: Cultural Shifts - The article notes a significant cultural shift where high heels, once a symbol of femininity and power, are now being rejected by younger generations in favor of comfort and practicality [93][98]. - The rise of "ugly shoes" reflects a rebellion against traditional beauty standards and societal expectations, with young people prioritizing comfort and self-expression over conventional aesthetics [58][83]. - The trend is also linked to broader societal changes, including the impact of the pandemic and movements like MeToo, which have influenced perceptions of femininity and professional attire [98][111].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of "ugly shoes," particularly focusing on Crocs and Birkenstock, highlighting how their unconventional designs have led to significant market success and brand recognition despite initial criticism [5][31]. Group 1: Company Performance - Crocs has outperformed the Dow Jones U.S. Footwear Index for four consecutive years, indicating strong market performance [6]. - Birkenstock has maintained double-digit revenue growth for nine consecutive quarters, showcasing its robust financial health [9]. - In the 2024 fiscal year, Crocs' revenue growth has significantly slowed, while Birkenstock continues to achieve double-digit growth despite having only half the revenue of Crocs, yet its market value exceeds Crocs by over 50% [29]. Group 2: Brand Strategy - Crocs employs a volume-driven strategy, achieving over $2 billion in sales from its Classic Clog model alone in 2024, surpassing the total sales of Adidas' Yeezy line [33]. - The company has adopted a light-asset operational model, outsourcing production to third-party manufacturers and significantly reducing order lead times [34]. - In contrast, Birkenstock focuses on maintaining product scarcity, producing 95% of its products in Germany and controlling distribution to enhance brand value [36]. Group 3: Market Positioning - Birkenstock's average selling price has consistently increased, with a high full-price sales rate of 90%, attracting middle-class consumers and luxury investors alike [41]. - The brand has successfully positioned itself as a luxury item, with its products being sold at significantly higher prices on secondary markets after collaborations with high-end brands [41]. - The article emphasizes that the key to success for these brands lies not in aesthetics but in creating a narrative that resonates with consumers, positioning their products as more than just footwear [44][50].

Group 1 - The core argument of the article highlights the unexpected success of "ugly shoes," particularly Crocs and Birkenstock, which have gained popularity despite initial criticism, with Crocs outperforming the Dow Jones U.S. Shoe Company Index for four consecutive years [2][18] - Birkenstock has seen continuous double-digit revenue growth for nine consecutive quarters, demonstrating that "ugliness" can translate into commercial success [3][18] - The rise of Birkenstock was significantly boosted by its appearance in the movie "Barbie," leading to a 110% increase in search volume on fashion platform Lyst [6][18] Group 2 - Both Crocs and Birkenstock share a foundation in practicality, with Birkenstock focusing on foot health and comfort, while Crocs emphasized comfort and ease of cleaning [7][9] - Crocs experienced a 300-fold increase in revenue from 2003 to 2006, driven by word-of-mouth among professionals like chefs and doctors [9][18] - The operational strategies of Crocs and Birkenstock differ significantly, with Crocs adopting a high-volume, low-cost model, while Birkenstock maintains a focus on scarcity and high-quality production in Germany [23][24] Group 3 - Crocs has shifted production to third-party manufacturers, allowing for flexibility and rapid response to market demands, but this has also led to a high incidence of counterfeiting [24][11] - In contrast, Birkenstock controls its production closely, with 95% of its products made in Germany, which helps maintain brand integrity and pricing power [24][25] - Birkenstock's average selling price has consistently increased, with a high full-price sell-through rate of 90%, indicating strong brand positioning in the market [28][18] Group 4 - The article emphasizes that the key to success for these brands lies not just in their "ugliness," but in the additional value they provide to consumers, creating a narrative that resonates with their audience [29][32] - Birkenstock's commitment to traditional craftsmanship and European materials enhances its brand value, distinguishing it from mass-produced alternatives [32][33] - The luxury positioning of Birkenstock has allowed it to thrive in a market where scarcity and exclusivity are highly valued, contrasting with Crocs' volume-driven approach [28][18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of "ugly shoes," particularly focusing on Crocs and Birkenstock, highlighting how their unconventional designs have led to significant market success and changing perceptions in the fashion industry [4][32]. Group 1: Market Performance - Crocs has outperformed the Dow Jones U.S. Shoe Company Index for four consecutive years, indicating strong market demand [5]. - Birkenstock has maintained double-digit revenue growth for nine consecutive quarters, showcasing its successful business model [9]. - In the 2024 fiscal year, Crocs' revenue growth is expected to slow down, while Birkenstock continues to achieve double-digit growth despite having only half the revenue of Crocs, with a market valuation exceeding Crocs by over 50% [32]. Group 2: Brand Strategy - Both Crocs and Birkenstock originated from a practical standpoint, focusing on comfort and functionality rather than aesthetics [14][18]. - Crocs adopted a volume-driven strategy, achieving over $2 billion in sales for its Classic Clog model in 2024, surpassing the entire Yeezy line from Adidas [36]. - Birkenstock, in contrast, has focused on maintaining scarcity and exclusivity, producing 95% of its products in Germany and controlling distribution to enhance brand value [40][41]. Group 3: Consumer Perception and Marketing - The perception of "ugly shoes" has shifted, with Crocs and Birkenstock leveraging their controversial designs to create media interest and public relations opportunities [24]. - Birkenstock's collaborations with luxury brands have significantly increased its market presence, with products that were once priced under $100 now selling for up to $1,000 on secondary markets [48]. - The article emphasizes that the key to success for these brands lies not in their aesthetics but in their ability to create a narrative and perceived value that resonates with consumers [51][59].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of "ugly shoes" like Crocs, UGG, and Birkenstock reflects a shift in consumer preferences among young people and the middle class, who are rejecting traditional beauty standards and embracing comfort and individuality [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The popularity of "ugly shoes" is not a decline in aesthetic standards but a movement towards comfort and self-expression, as young consumers opt for styles that allow them to reclaim design authority [1][2]. - KEEN, branded as the "world's ugliest sandals," has successfully transitioned from outdoor footwear to urban fashion, appealing to a broader consumer base [2][4]. Group 2: KEEN's Brand Evolution - KEEN's shoes have gained traction in various settings, from outdoor activities to urban environments, showcasing their versatility and appeal [16][28]. - The brand's Newport model revolutionized the concept of sailing shoes by combining comfort, waterproofing, and breathability, making it suitable for various activities [19][24]. Group 3: Consumer Demographics - KEEN's consumer base is predominantly young, with a significant portion of sales coming from Generation Z, particularly in Asia, where the brand has been marketed as a fashion item rather than just functional footwear [43][51]. - Over 91% of KEEN product consumers own multiple pairs, indicating strong brand loyalty and repeat purchases [45][47]. Group 4: Cultural Impact - The emergence of "ugly shoes" has transcended practicality, becoming a form of rebellion against societal beauty standards, particularly among the Z generation [54][65]. - KEEN's design philosophy emphasizes comfort over aesthetics, resonating with consumers who prioritize functionality in their footwear choices [65][66].

Core Insights - The company, Hangzhou Zhongruan Plastic Co., Ltd., has been a leading manufacturer of cork shoe soles in China for 26 years, with a production capacity of up to 100,000 pairs per day and an annual output of 30 million pairs, making it one of the largest in the industry [2][5] - The company has experienced a 10% decrease in order volume compared to previous years, but the CEO remains optimistic due to a strong order base, particularly from Germany, which accounts for half of their total orders [2][5] - The popularity of German brand Birkenstock has significantly boosted demand for cork shoe soles, as the company's products closely match the quality and color requirements of traditional Birkenstock shoes [2][5] Company Strategy - The CEO emphasizes the importance of product quality and continuous innovation, having grown from an initial order of 1,000 pairs to 600,000 pairs over 20 years [5][6] - The company invests heavily in product sampling, spending several million yuan annually to gain recognition from European clients [5][6] - To expand market reach, the company actively participates in international trade shows and has sent representatives to various countries to seek new customers [6][7] Market Dynamics - The company has noted a decrease in European merchants attending trade shows, prompting a proactive approach to market expansion [6][7] - Recent orders from Vietnam, totaling 350,000 pairs, indicate a shift in sourcing patterns, with orders being rerouted from the U.S. to Vietnam [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent sale of shares by L Catterton in the German sandal brand Birkenstock, highlighting the brand's growth, financial performance, and strategic moves in the consumer market [4][5][16]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Share Sale - L Catterton is selling approximately 18 million shares of Birkenstock at a price of $52.5 per share, raising about $940 million (approximately 6.7 billion RMB) [4]. - Following this sale, L Catterton's ownership in Birkenstock will decrease from 71.9% to about 62% [5]. - Birkenstock's valuation has exceeded $10 billion as of May this year, with a revenue growth of 19% and a net profit increase of 47% reported for the second quarter of the 2025 fiscal year [5][15]. Group 2: Brand History and Development - Birkenstock was founded in 1774 by Johann Adam Birkenstock and has evolved from a small workshop to an international brand known for its comfort and quality [8][10]. - The brand has expanded its product line beyond shoes to include socks, bags, belts, and even natural skincare products [9]. - In 2021, L Catterton acquired nearly 70% of Birkenstock for approximately $4.8 billion, marking a significant investment in the brand [10]. Group 3: Market Expansion and Strategy - Post-acquisition, L Catterton has focused on expanding Birkenstock's presence in markets like China, India, and Southeast Asia, while also enhancing its online business [12][13]. - Birkenstock has collaborated with high-fashion brands like Valentino and Rick Owens, integrating luxury elements into its product offerings [12]. - The brand's products are primarily manufactured in Germany, maintaining a strong emphasis on quality and local production [15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - L Catterton's recent share sale may indicate that Birkenstock's financial performance has met the investment firm's expectations, allowing for further investment opportunities [16]. - Despite the share sale, L Catterton retains about two-thirds of Birkenstock's shares, and the CEO remains optimistic about the company's growth prospects, projecting a revenue increase of 15% to 17% for the 2025 fiscal year [17].