Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting serves as a precursor to the Central Economic Work Conference, indicating that a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy will continue into 2026, suggesting a sustained loose funding environment for the commodity market [3][9]. Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The combination of "expansive fiscal policy + loose monetary policy" is expected to create a macro backdrop that supports the commodity market [3][9]. - Attention should be paid to the language used in future statements, particularly phrases like "increase macro control" and "strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments," which may indicate a stronger policy commitment and boost market sentiment [3][9]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Considerations - Key focus areas include the deficit rate and the scale of special bonds, which reflect the government's leverage efforts. If these exceed market expectations, it suggests a more aggressive push for economic growth, positively impacting demand for commodities like copper and stock index futures [10][11]. - The allocation of funds will be crucial, whether directed towards "new infrastructure, new urbanization, and major projects," or towards "large-scale equipment updates" and "consumer goods replacement," influencing demand trends in various commodity sectors [11][12]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Real Estate - The extent of monetary policy adjustments will directly signal liquidity levels. Confirmation of a continued loose monetary stance could lower financing costs and enhance market risk appetite, potentially directing funds into the futures market [12][13]. - The real estate market's stabilization in 2026 is critical for the price trends of black commodities. The absence of specific mentions regarding the real estate market in this year's meeting raises questions about potential new policies to stabilize the sector [13]. Group 4: Market Expectations and New Opportunities - The market often reacts to new expectations, so the conference's potential establishment of quantifiable targets for consumption or investment growth, or emphasis on new investment areas like "AI+" or "green consumption," could inject new trading momentum into relevant sectors [5][12]. - The final outcomes will depend on the official communiqué released after the conference, with potential for increased price volatility during the meeting as market expectations evolve [5][12].