Macro Strategy - The report highlights that the overseas market during the National Day holiday was dominated by two major events: the U.S. government shutdown and the unexpected election of Kishi Nobuo as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan. The government shutdown led to increased risk aversion, while expectations for the Federal Reserve to "blindly cut rates" rose due to the suspension of key economic data releases. This, combined with expectations of "loose fiscal and monetary" policies in Japan, drove gold and Bitcoin to new historical highs [1][6]. - Looking ahead, the report suggests that the global political rightward shift, along with loose fiscal and monetary trends, indicates greater uncertainty from geopolitical friction and unsustainable global government debt. The probability of the economy transitioning from a soft landing to moderate overheating has increased. In terms of market strategy, it is expected that gold will outperform copper and stocks in the medium term [1][6]. Fixed Income - The report discusses the upcoming issuance of Funi Energy Convertible Bonds, with a total issuance scale of 3.802 billion yuan. The net proceeds will be used for significant energy projects. The initial bond price is estimated to be between 123.06 and 136.85 yuan, with a predicted subscription rate of 0.0129% [3][12]. Industry Insights - The report notes that Shoucheng Holdings has launched the first permanent robot technology experience store in Beijing, which is expected to facilitate the commercialization of robots in the consumer market. The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 590 million, 770 million, and 930 million Hong Kong dollars, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 30, 23, and 19 times. The report maintains a "buy" rating for the company, considering its stable main business and deepening layout in humanoid robots [4][14].

Group 1: Economic Overview - During the National Day holiday, major asset prices were influenced by the U.S. government shutdown and the election of Japan's new ruling party president, leading to a historic high in gold prices[7] - The Baidu migration index showed a year-on-year growth of 19.2% during the holiday, indicating a high level of tourism consumption[7] - Cross-regional passenger flow increased by 5.2% compared to the previous year, outperforming the pre-holiday expectation of 3.2%[7] Group 2: Domestic Consumption Trends - Despite high tourism consumption, the growth rate of foot traffic in commercial areas declined, marking the weakest performance since the May Day holiday in 2024[7] - Key retail and catering enterprises saw a sales growth of only 3.3% during the first four days of the holiday, lower than the 4.5% growth in the same period last year[36] - In major cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, the sales growth for retail sectors remained subdued, with Beijing's key monitored enterprises showing only a 0.4% increase[36] Group 3: Real Estate Market - The transaction volume of second-hand homes in 12 cities fell by 4.2% year-on-year as of October 5, indicating a continued weak real estate market[7] - New home transaction volumes also showed a widening decline, suggesting ongoing challenges in the property sector[7] Group 4: Production and Employment - Pre-holiday production data indicated a downward trend in raw material demand, with railway freight volume showing a continuous decline[7] - The operating rates in various sectors, including automotive and textiles, remained in negative growth territory, reflecting a sluggish production environment[7]

Core Viewpoint - The National Day holiday was dominated by two major events: the U.S. government shutdown and the election of Kishi Nobuo as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan. The government shutdown has heightened risk aversion, while expectations for the Federal Reserve to "blindly cut rates" have increased due to the suspension of key economic data releases. Concurrently, Kishi's victory has raised expectations for "loose fiscal and monetary" policies in Japan, driving gold and Bitcoin to new historical highs. Looking ahead, the global trend towards right-wing politics and loose fiscal and monetary policies suggests greater uncertainty from geopolitical friction and unsustainable global government debt, increasing the probability of a mild overheating of the economy. In terms of market strategy, short-term risk appetite for U.S. stocks is expected to weaken due to the ongoing government shutdown, while in the medium term, the combination of right-wing politics, fiscal and monetary easing, geopolitical risks, economic overheating, and weakening fiat currency credit is expected to lead to asset performance in the order of gold > copper > stocks [1]. Major Asset Performance - During the National Day holiday period (September 29 to October 6), global major assets reflected a typical "loose fiscal + loose monetary" trading pattern, with Bitcoin and gold leading the gains. The U.S. stock market saw a continuous rise, and global stock markets experienced broad gains. Specifically, on October 1, the U.S. federal government shut down due to the failure to pass a temporary spending bill, with the shutdown expected to last longer than market expectations, leading to increased risk aversion and a rise in gold and Bitcoin prices. Gold and Bitcoin reached new highs, surpassing $3960 per ounce and $150,000 respectively, while the Nikkei 225 index rose by 6.4% during the holiday, also reaching a historical high [2][3]. Overseas Economic Conditions - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the suspension of key economic data releases, including the September non-farm payrolls and initial jobless claims. The ADP employment data showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000. The ISM manufacturing and services indices displayed mixed results, with the manufacturing PMI improving to 49.1, while the services PMI fell to 50. The consumer confidence index unexpectedly dropped to 94.2, below the expected 96. The lack of non-farm payroll data has left the market in a "no news" state, with the private sector data from Revelio Labs indicating a modest increase of 61,000 jobs in September [3][4]. U.S. Political Landscape - The U.S. federal government officially entered a shutdown on October 1 due to a failure to pass a temporary spending bill. The shutdown is primarily due to disagreements between the two parties over healthcare spending. The negative impact of the shutdown on the economy is expected to be limited, with previous shutdowns showing that GDP losses are often recovered once the government resumes operations. The shutdown is projected to last approximately 18 days, with significant delays expected for the release of key economic data such as the non-farm payrolls and CPI [4]. Japanese Political Landscape - Kishi Nobuo won the election for the president of the Liberal Democratic Party on October 4, expected to become Japan's first female prime minister. Kishi's economic policies advocate for loose fiscal and monetary policies, which are seen as a continuation of Abenomics. The market reacted positively, with the Nikkei 225 index rising over 4%. However, concerns about the sustainability of future fiscal expansions have led to increases in long-term Japanese government bond yields. Market expectations for the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes have decreased, with the probability of a rate hike in October dropping to 20.8% [5].

Group 1 - The article discusses the political crisis surrounding the Federal Reserve, particularly in the context of President Trump's influence on interest rate expectations and the potential nomination of a "shadow Fed chair" [3][4][10] - Market expectations for the next Fed chair are focused on candidates with dovish monetary policy stances, including current Fed Governor Waller and NEC Director Hassett [10][16] - The article highlights that the Federal Reserve can set but not manipulate policy rates or the yield curve, emphasizing that interest rates are endogenous and influenced by macroeconomic factors [5][47] Group 2 - The article suggests a shift in policy from "loose fiscal + loose monetary" to "tight fiscal + loose monetary" as a necessary adjustment for the U.S. government to manage its debt and fiscal deficit [7][9] - It notes that the U.S. government's fiscal and debt situation resembles a "wartime state," necessitating fiscal consolidation through either economic growth or budget cuts [9][19] - The article emphasizes that sustainable fiscal consolidation can lead to a decrease in long-term interest rates, with historical data indicating that a 1% reduction in the fiscal deficit can lower 10-year Treasury yields by 12-35 basis points [7][9]

Core Insights - The AI Fund Dongfanghong Ruiyuan Mixed (000970) reported a profit of 23.9465 million yuan for Q1 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0497 yuan [3] - The fund's net value growth rate for the reporting period was 2.03%, and as of the end of Q1, the fund size was 1.209 billion yuan [3] - The fund is categorized as a flexible allocation fund, with a unit net value of 2.477 yuan as of April 18 [3] Economic Context - Domestically, the economy showed stable growth in Q1, with fiscal counter-cyclical adjustments yielding positive results in sectors like automotive, home appliances, and consumer electronics [3] - Internationally, consumer confidence in the U.S. weakened, raising recession expectations; the outlook for 2025 suggests a continued expansive fiscal and monetary environment in China, while the U.S. may experience marginally declining fiscal conditions with tight monetary policy [3] Performance Metrics - As of April 18, the fund's three-month cumulative net value growth rate was 1.81%, ranking 239 out of 918 comparable funds; the six-month growth rate was 1.10%, ranking 291 out of 918; the one-year growth rate was 18.18%, ranking 138 out of 918; and the three-year growth rate was -17.76%, ranking 674 out of 901 [3] - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was -0.1544, ranking 737 out of 909 comparable funds [9] - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 40.78%, with the highest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2022 at 19.9% [11] Investment Strategy - The average stock position over the past three years was 79.77%, slightly below the comparable average of 80.16%; the fund reached a peak stock position of 97.78% at the end of 2022 and a low of 60.8% by mid-2024 [14] Top Holdings - As of the end of Q1 2025, the fund's top ten holdings included Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, Sanhua Group, SMIC, AVIC Optoelectronics, Keda Li, China Mobile, Siyuan Electric, Mango Super Media, Jingchen Technology, and China Telecom [20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index in the next six months [25]. Core Insights - The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, maintaining a balance between short-term stability and long-term transformation, reflecting a pragmatic yet challenging policy stance [1]. - The fiscal deficit is projected at 5.66 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of around 4%, marking a historical high for the two sessions, which aligns with the direction of a more proactive fiscal policy [2]. - The issuance of special bonds and local government bonds is expected to reach 6.2 trillion yuan this year, significantly higher than the previous year's total of 4.9 trillion yuan, indicating an increase in effective fiscal spending [3]. - The monetary policy is characterized as "moderately loose," with expectations for potential reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates throughout the year [4]. - CPI is projected to show a "high-low-high" trend throughout the year, with an expected year-end CPI increase of around 1.2% [12]. - PPI is anticipated to narrow its decline throughout the year, with a forecasted annual decrease of -1.2% [14]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The government work report emphasizes a combination of "expansive fiscal and monetary policies" to stabilize growth expectations [1][4]. - The fiscal policy aims to enhance domestic demand through increased public spending and special bond issuance [2][3]. Inflation and Price Trends - February 2025 CPI showed a year-on-year decrease of -0.7%, with core CPI also negative for the first time since January 2021 [11]. - The CPI is expected to rise later in the year due to strong growth policies and increased consumer spending [12]. Trade and Export Performance - Exports in the first two months of 2025 increased by 2.3% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 8.4%, indicating a mixed trade environment [15]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on exports has not yet fully materialized, suggesting resilience in certain sectors [17]. Market Performance - The REITs market experienced a limited rebound, with the CSI REITs index up by 1.14% [18]. - Market liquidity has decreased, with average daily trading volume dropping to 787 million yuan [19].