投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股指反弹持续，贵金属小幅回调 ——中信期货晨报20251226 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 金融市场涨跌幅 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现金 | | | 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 李度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4610.6 | 0.344 | 1.85% | 3.09% | -0.16% | 11729X | | | 上证50期货 | 3034 | 0 23% | 0.92% | 2.53% | 1.51% | 13.29% | | | 中证500期货 | 7320.6 | 1 00 00 % | 3.76% | 7.64% | 0.41% | 28 ...

Group 1 - The A-shares market opened lower but rose throughout the day, with the CSI A500 ETF (560510) increasing by 0.70% and trading volume reaching 53.31 million yuan [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 analyzed the current economic situation and outlined tasks for 2026, emphasizing a "more proactive fiscal policy" and "moderately loose monetary policy" [1] - The conference identified eight key tasks for economic work in the coming year, with a focus on "domestic demand as the main driver" and building a strong domestic market [1] Group 2 - CICC analysis indicates that "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" involves coordinating fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies to promote high-quality economic growth [2] - The main tone of "expansive fiscal and monetary policies" is expected to continue into 2026, reflecting stability and continuity in macroeconomic policy [2] - CITIC Securities anticipates that there is still room for rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and supporting key areas such as technology innovation and small and medium enterprises [2] Group 3 - The CSI A500 Index is characterized by strong market representation and higher coverage of emerging sectors, making it a valuable tool for capturing core strengths in various industries during economic transformation [3] - The CSI A500 ETF (560510) closely tracks the CSI A500 Index, which includes 500 securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of representative listed companies across industries [2][3]

Group 1 - A-shares showed a rebound in early trading on Friday, with the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices turning positive after a dip, indicating a recovery in the market [1] - The sectors leading the gains included precious metals, film and television, electricity, and liquor, suggesting a broad-based rally in specific industries [1] - The National Index of Free Cash Flow saw a slight increase, with constituent stocks like Jinhong Group, Changbao Co., Hailu Heavy Industry, and Guodian Nanzi rising over 4% [1] Group 2 - The cash flow ETF from Harvest (159221) experienced significant inflows, with over 28 million yuan net inflow this month and a total of over 450 million yuan since its launch on May 13 [1] - Analysts expect the upcoming major meeting to emphasize "more proactive macro policies," with a forecast that the fiscal deficit rate will remain at a reasonable level through 2026, indicating a supportive environment for capital markets [1] - The combination of "expansive fiscal and monetary policies" is anticipated to provide ample liquidity in the capital market, creating favorable investment opportunities for equity assets [1] Group 3 - The National Index of Free Cash Flow is composed of stocks with positive and high free cash flow, selected based on liquidity, industry, and ROE stability, making it suitable for long-term investment strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing on December 10-11 outlines the economic work for 2026, emphasizing the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the flexible use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [1] Monetary Policy - The conference indicates that the main tone of "expansive fiscal + expansive monetary" will persist into 2026 [1] - There is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions, with expectations for moderate increases in these measures between the end of 2025 and the first half of 2026 [1] - Long-term liquidity tools will be employed to maintain a loose funding environment [1] - Structural tools will focus on key areas such as technology finance, green finance, and inclusive finance to enhance policy precision [1]

"宽财政+宽货币"的主基调将在2026年延续。 此外，会议提出要增强宏观政策取向一致性和有效性。将各类经济政策和非经济政策、存量政策和增量 政策纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估。健全预期管理机制，提振社会信心。 董希淼认为，这意味着未来各部门、各地区、各领域的政策将更注重协调配合，形成合力。 明明分析，2026年作为"十五五"起步之年，将在更积极的宏观政策组合和更前瞻性的结构改革推动下实 现经济的稳健开局，为迈向2035年现代化远景奠定坚实基础。 具体而言，会议提出，要把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。灵活高效运用 降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内 需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。 招联首席研究员董希淼认为，从货币政策看，为继续保持适度宽松的基调，并配合财政政策发力，预计 2026年存款利率和政策利率将进一步下降，可能实施降准降息一至两次，并且更加注重发挥结构性货币 政策工具作用，引导金融资源更多流向科技创新、绿色发展、提振消费。但货币政策不会"大水漫灌"， 将注重把握和处理好短期与长期、稳增长与防风险、内部与外部三方面的关系。 中信 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting serves as a precursor to the Central Economic Work Conference, indicating that a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy will continue into 2026, suggesting a sustained loose funding environment for the commodity market [3][9]. Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The combination of "expansive fiscal policy + loose monetary policy" is expected to create a macro backdrop that supports the commodity market [3][9]. - Attention should be paid to the language used in future statements, particularly phrases like "increase macro control" and "strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments," which may indicate a stronger policy commitment and boost market sentiment [3][9]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Considerations - Key focus areas include the deficit rate and the scale of special bonds, which reflect the government's leverage efforts. If these exceed market expectations, it suggests a more aggressive push for economic growth, positively impacting demand for commodities like copper and stock index futures [10][11]. - The allocation of funds will be crucial, whether directed towards "new infrastructure, new urbanization, and major projects," or towards "large-scale equipment updates" and "consumer goods replacement," influencing demand trends in various commodity sectors [11][12]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Real Estate - The extent of monetary policy adjustments will directly signal liquidity levels. Confirmation of a continued loose monetary stance could lower financing costs and enhance market risk appetite, potentially directing funds into the futures market [12][13]. - The real estate market's stabilization in 2026 is critical for the price trends of black commodities. The absence of specific mentions regarding the real estate market in this year's meeting raises questions about potential new policies to stabilize the sector [13]. Group 4: Market Expectations and New Opportunities - The market often reacts to new expectations, so the conference's potential establishment of quantifiable targets for consumption or investment growth, or emphasis on new investment areas like "AI+" or "green consumption," could inject new trading momentum into relevant sectors [5][12]. - The final outcomes will depend on the official communiqué released after the conference, with potential for increased price volatility during the meeting as market expectations evolve [5][12].

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that the overseas market during the National Day holiday was dominated by two major events: the U.S. government shutdown and the unexpected election of Kishi Nobuo as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan. The government shutdown led to increased risk aversion, while expectations for the Federal Reserve to "blindly cut rates" rose due to the suspension of key economic data releases. This, combined with expectations of "loose fiscal and monetary" policies in Japan, drove gold and Bitcoin to new historical highs [1][6]. - Looking ahead, the report suggests that the global political rightward shift, along with loose fiscal and monetary trends, indicates greater uncertainty from geopolitical friction and unsustainable global government debt. The probability of the economy transitioning from a soft landing to moderate overheating has increased. In terms of market strategy, it is expected that gold will outperform copper and stocks in the medium term [1][6]. Fixed Income - The report discusses the upcoming issuance of Funi Energy Convertible Bonds, with a total issuance scale of 3.802 billion yuan. The net proceeds will be used for significant energy projects. The initial bond price is estimated to be between 123.06 and 136.85 yuan, with a predicted subscription rate of 0.0129% [3][12]. Industry Insights - The report notes that Shoucheng Holdings has launched the first permanent robot technology experience store in Beijing, which is expected to facilitate the commercialization of robots in the consumer market. The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 590 million, 770 million, and 930 million Hong Kong dollars, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 30, 23, and 19 times. The report maintains a "buy" rating for the company, considering its stable main business and deepening layout in humanoid robots [4][14].

Group 1: Economic Overview - During the National Day holiday, major asset prices were influenced by the U.S. government shutdown and the election of Japan's new ruling party president, leading to a historic high in gold prices[7] - The Baidu migration index showed a year-on-year growth of 19.2% during the holiday, indicating a high level of tourism consumption[7] - Cross-regional passenger flow increased by 5.2% compared to the previous year, outperforming the pre-holiday expectation of 3.2%[7] Group 2: Domestic Consumption Trends - Despite high tourism consumption, the growth rate of foot traffic in commercial areas declined, marking the weakest performance since the May Day holiday in 2024[7] - Key retail and catering enterprises saw a sales growth of only 3.3% during the first four days of the holiday, lower than the 4.5% growth in the same period last year[36] - In major cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, the sales growth for retail sectors remained subdued, with Beijing's key monitored enterprises showing only a 0.4% increase[36] Group 3: Real Estate Market - The transaction volume of second-hand homes in 12 cities fell by 4.2% year-on-year as of October 5, indicating a continued weak real estate market[7] - New home transaction volumes also showed a widening decline, suggesting ongoing challenges in the property sector[7] Group 4: Production and Employment - Pre-holiday production data indicated a downward trend in raw material demand, with railway freight volume showing a continuous decline[7] - The operating rates in various sectors, including automotive and textiles, remained in negative growth territory, reflecting a sluggish production environment[7]

Core Viewpoint - The National Day holiday was dominated by two major events: the U.S. government shutdown and the election of Kishi Nobuo as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan. The government shutdown has heightened risk aversion, while expectations for the Federal Reserve to "blindly cut rates" have increased due to the suspension of key economic data releases. Concurrently, Kishi's victory has raised expectations for "loose fiscal and monetary" policies in Japan, driving gold and Bitcoin to new historical highs. Looking ahead, the global trend towards right-wing politics and loose fiscal and monetary policies suggests greater uncertainty from geopolitical friction and unsustainable global government debt, increasing the probability of a mild overheating of the economy. In terms of market strategy, short-term risk appetite for U.S. stocks is expected to weaken due to the ongoing government shutdown, while in the medium term, the combination of right-wing politics, fiscal and monetary easing, geopolitical risks, economic overheating, and weakening fiat currency credit is expected to lead to asset performance in the order of gold > copper > stocks [1]. Major Asset Performance - During the National Day holiday period (September 29 to October 6), global major assets reflected a typical "loose fiscal + loose monetary" trading pattern, with Bitcoin and gold leading the gains. The U.S. stock market saw a continuous rise, and global stock markets experienced broad gains. Specifically, on October 1, the U.S. federal government shut down due to the failure to pass a temporary spending bill, with the shutdown expected to last longer than market expectations, leading to increased risk aversion and a rise in gold and Bitcoin prices. Gold and Bitcoin reached new highs, surpassing $3960 per ounce and $150,000 respectively, while the Nikkei 225 index rose by 6.4% during the holiday, also reaching a historical high [2][3]. Overseas Economic Conditions - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the suspension of key economic data releases, including the September non-farm payrolls and initial jobless claims. The ADP employment data showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000. The ISM manufacturing and services indices displayed mixed results, with the manufacturing PMI improving to 49.1, while the services PMI fell to 50. The consumer confidence index unexpectedly dropped to 94.2, below the expected 96. The lack of non-farm payroll data has left the market in a "no news" state, with the private sector data from Revelio Labs indicating a modest increase of 61,000 jobs in September [3][4]. U.S. Political Landscape - The U.S. federal government officially entered a shutdown on October 1 due to a failure to pass a temporary spending bill. The shutdown is primarily due to disagreements between the two parties over healthcare spending. The negative impact of the shutdown on the economy is expected to be limited, with previous shutdowns showing that GDP losses are often recovered once the government resumes operations. The shutdown is projected to last approximately 18 days, with significant delays expected for the release of key economic data such as the non-farm payrolls and CPI [4]. Japanese Political Landscape - Kishi Nobuo won the election for the president of the Liberal Democratic Party on October 4, expected to become Japan's first female prime minister. Kishi's economic policies advocate for loose fiscal and monetary policies, which are seen as a continuation of Abenomics. The market reacted positively, with the Nikkei 225 index rising over 4%. However, concerns about the sustainability of future fiscal expansions have led to increases in long-term Japanese government bond yields. Market expectations for the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes have decreased, with the probability of a rate hike in October dropping to 20.8% [5].

Group 1 - The article discusses the political crisis surrounding the Federal Reserve, particularly in the context of President Trump's influence on interest rate expectations and the potential nomination of a "shadow Fed chair" [3][4][10] - Market expectations for the next Fed chair are focused on candidates with dovish monetary policy stances, including current Fed Governor Waller and NEC Director Hassett [10][16] - The article highlights that the Federal Reserve can set but not manipulate policy rates or the yield curve, emphasizing that interest rates are endogenous and influenced by macroeconomic factors [5][47] Group 2 - The article suggests a shift in policy from "loose fiscal + loose monetary" to "tight fiscal + loose monetary" as a necessary adjustment for the U.S. government to manage its debt and fiscal deficit [7][9] - It notes that the U.S. government's fiscal and debt situation resembles a "wartime state," necessitating fiscal consolidation through either economic growth or budget cuts [9][19] - The article emphasizes that sustainable fiscal consolidation can lead to a decrease in long-term interest rates, with historical data indicating that a 1% reduction in the fiscal deficit can lower 10-year Treasury yields by 12-35 basis points [7][9]