Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market has not continued its strong performance as expected by bulls, with Bitcoin experiencing significant volatility and dropping below the $78,000 mark, marking its lowest level since April of the previous year [1][2]. Market Conditions - The market appears extremely fragile due to the diminishing growth benefits from early corporate demand and a lack of fresh buying support, leading to a decline triggered by profit-taking and liquidity scarcity [1][2]. - The current downward movement may indicate the collapse of the "false prosperity" that previously supported bullish sentiment, suggesting that the recent decline could be just the beginning [1][2]. Technical Analysis - Bitcoin has entered a correction phase characterized by sideways trading since late October of the previous year, with the notion of a return to peak levels being viewed as blind optimism by investors [3]. - Key technical indicators, such as the monthly MACD, showed a bearish crossover in November, and the 21 and 55-period exponential moving averages (EMA) have recently entered a bearish zone [3]. - The annual closing for 2025 displayed a "shooting star" pattern, which is typically interpreted as a signal for a mid-term trend reversal [3]. Options Market Insights - Defensive positioning in the options market further corroborates market concerns, with the nominal open interest value of put options at a strike price of $75,000 on the Deribit platform soaring to $1.159 billion, nearly equal to that of call options at $100,000 [4]. - This indicates that traders are significantly hedging against downside risks rather than speculating on higher price levels [4]. - The current deep washout in Bitcoin is seen as a necessary process to clear excessive leverage, with potential for prices to further dip into the $50,000 to $60,000 range in the short term [4]. - However, this level of adjustment does not signify the end of the crypto cycle; rather, it may provide a more cost-effective value opportunity for long-term investors after the leverage bubble is cleared [4].

RT Pickle Cat (@0xPickleCati)最近市场走势确实不好，但也正是这种绝望时刻，最适合复盘与反思。很欣赏 @yuyue_chris 以自身经历对加密周期的思考，推荐大家去看看。还有，如果你最近交易不顺，陷入内耗和自我否定，不妨换个角度看看，这真不一定纯粹是坏事。正如布局在无人问津，退出在人声鼎沸，未来十年，交易的门槛会逐渐降低。在“万物皆可交易”的未来，曾经不可移动、无法计量的东西（例如：你的信用、注意力、情感与人际关系，甚至是个人时间）都会量化，就像水一样流动。管理投资组合将像读书识字一样，成为每个人的必备技能。你要知道，你现在为投资和交易所付出的每一分努力、每一小时、每一笔血泪交织的“学费”，都会在未来转化成你最核心的竞争力之一。当万物金融化，没吃过亏的人会被波动的巨浪瞬间吞没，而你提前磨炼出的嗅觉和心法，就会是你最强的法宝。昨天 @thecryptoskanda 盘主开玩笑说我那篇40多页的文章，是当前版本的三盘理论，“他修剑法，我修心法”。的确，每个时代都有每个时代的新玩法，但底层的博弈、对人性的剖析与利用，千百年来从未改变。无论时代如何“版本升级”，这种对自我的深度认知都没有捷 ...