随着年底临近，彭博社重点盘点了2025年一些最引人注目的押注——赢家、输家以及定义了这个时代的 头寸。其中许多押注让投资者在为2026年做准备时，为那些过于熟悉的断层线而焦虑：摇摇欲坠的公 司、过高的估值，以及那些有效直至失效的趋势追逐型交易。 AI交易：下一个大空头？ 这项交易在一份常规备案文件中曝光，但其影响绝非寻常。Scion资产管理公司于11月3日披露，其持有 英伟达公司和Palantir科技公司的保护性看跌期权——这两家处于人工智能交易中心的股票已推动市场 上行三年之久。 来源：金十数据 这是又一个充满高信念押注与快速逆转的年份。 从东京的债券交易台、纽约的信贷委员会到伊斯坦布尔的货币交易员，市场既带来了意外之财，也造成 了剧烈的震荡。黄金创下历史新高。稳重的抵押贷款巨头像网红股一样剧烈波动。教科书式的利差交易 在瞬间破灭。 投资者押下重注于变幻的政治、膨胀的资产负债表和脆弱的市场叙事，推动股市大幅上涨、收益率交易 拥挤不堪，以及建立在杠杆、希望而非其他坚实基础上的加密货币策略。特朗普重返白宫迅速冲击、随 后又提振了全球金融市场，点燃了欧洲防务股的行情，并壮大了那些煽动一个又一个狂热的投机者的胆 量 ...

我们是一个聚焦全球资本市场的高影响力财经账号。 内容由华尔街交易员与研究员共同撰写，提供市场深度解读、机构级逻辑与实时判断。 这里没有喊 单，没有套路，只有用数据和常识说话的分析。 我们希望把复杂的金融世界，讲给真正关心自己资产的人听。 来源 | capitalwatch 以下文章来源于capitalwatch ，作者宏观分析师 capitalwatch . 华尔街有一句残酷的格言： 在拥挤的交易里， 没有阿尔法（Alpha） 同样，在拥挤的恐惧里，往往也没有真正的黑天鹅。 看看这张德意志银行的调查图表，它不仅展示了数据，更展示了一个巨大的 "心理陷阱" 。 左边那根高耸入云的柱子—— 57% 的投资者认为"科技股估值暴跌/AI退潮"是最大风险。 这画面看起来很吓人，对吧？ 但在资深交易员眼中，这根柱子传达了一个完全相反的信号： 这个风险可能已经"安全"了。 为什么？让我们换个角度，聊聊2026年市场真正的"灯下黑"。 恐惧的"通货膨胀"：当大家都带了伞，暴雨通常不会下 当接近六成的市场参与者都在担心同一个问题（AI泡沫）时，这意味着什么？ 这意味着绝大多数机构已经为此做了准备：他们可能已经买了看跌期权（Pu ...

Group 1 - The article outlines the core fundamentals of options, pricing models, risk measurement tools (Greek letters), and practical trading applications, providing a theoretical foundation for pricing analysis, risk monitoring, and strategy construction in options trading [1] - Options are defined as the right of the holder to buy or sell an asset at a fixed price within a specific time frame, categorized into call options (buy) and put options (sell) with distinct definitions and payoff formulas [1] Group 2 - The article presents the options pricing parity formula, which establishes a no-arbitrage pricing relationship between call and put options for the same underlying asset, strike price, and expiration date [2] - It describes two investment portfolios that demonstrate the equivalence of the current values of call and put options, reinforcing the no-arbitrage principle [3] Group 3 - The Black-Scholes pricing formula for European call and put options is detailed, including the variables involved such as the current asset price, strike price, time to expiration, risk-free interest rate, and annualized volatility [4] - The core logic of the Black-Scholes formula is explained as the expected value of the option's payoff under a risk-neutral probability measure [4] Group 4 - The article discusses the components of option value, distinguishing between intrinsic value (immediate exercise profit) and time value (the portion of the option price exceeding intrinsic value), which is influenced by volatility and time to expiration [5] Group 5 - Greek letters are introduced as quantitative indicators of the impact of changes in underlying price, volatility, time, and interest rates on option value, with key metrics such as Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta, and Rho defined and compared for call and put options [6]

点击蓝字，关注我们 今天介绍的 Short Bear Ratio Spread 策略，就是为你准备的——它能让 用极低的权利金成本，甚至零成本 ，去布局美股大跌的机会，同时将上涨风险 牢牢锁死。 Short Bear Ratio Spread - 低成本博大跌 看着股票一路狂飙，你是不是心里盘算着："这股价，是不是太高了？" 策略组成: 买入较多数量 的 平值 ATM或 浅度虚值 OTM看跌期权Put，同时 卖出较少数量 的 实值 ITM看跌期权Put(行权价高于股价)，且两种期权的到期日相同。 投资意义: 核心是 对股票看空但是想控制入场成本，同时对冲股票上涨的无限亏损风险 。 策略到期盈亏图和盈亏计算公式: 想顺势做空，又怕成本太高，更怕它继续上涨亏得没底？ 对比 "单纯买看跌期权"：无需支付高额权利金， 甚至可能 "免费建仓" 。 对比 "单纯卖看跌期权"：买入的看跌期权能在标的下跌时带来收益， 避免了 "标的暴跌时的亏损" 。 适用场景：投资者 坚定看空标的，但也担心上涨回调风险或不想付出高额成本 ，同时认可 "标的下跌幅度较大时，收益虽不如单纯买期权，但成 本优势明显"。 红线部分代表Short B ...

备兑看涨策略则适合持有标的期货多单或现货的投资者，在预期商品价格震荡偏涨、短期难以突破关键阻力位 时使用。操作方式为：在持有标的资产的基础上，卖出对应数量的虚值看涨期权，通过收取权利金来增强组合 收益。当标的价格未涨超行权价时，投资者可获得标的持仓收益与权利金收入。若价格大涨，标的部分的收益 会被行权价锁定，但权利金可部分抵消持仓成本；若价格下跌，权利金则能对冲部分亏损。该策略本质上是通 过牺牲部分上行收益，换取额外的现金流，适合保守型交易者提升持仓性价比。 下跌行情下的期权策略。当预期商品价格将大幅下跌，且隐含波动率较低时，买入看跌期权是核心选择。该策 略赋予投资者在到期日或之前以行权价卖出标的的权利，最大损失为支付的权利金，最大收益为行权价减去标 的价格再扣除权利金。例如，铁矿石价格处于高位，但由于库存持续累积，投资者预期铁矿石价格后续将大幅 下跌，则可以买入看跌期权，在价格下跌过程中获得收益，且无需承担直接做空标的的无限风险。这种策略适 合对下跌方向判断明确，但希望控制风险敞口的投资者。 期权作为衍生品市场的重要组成部分，凭借权利金有限损失、兼具对冲与投机灵活性的特点，成为投资者应对 不同市场行情的重要 ...

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, has sparked market discussions again after being reported to have made a significant bet against AI stocks. However, he clarified that the reported amount of $912 million was a media error, and his actual investment was only $9.2 million [2][5][12]. Group 1: Investment Actions - Burry purchased 50,000 put options on Palantir, each costing $1.84, totaling an investment of approximately $9.2 million, not $912 million as reported [5][10]. - The notional value of his options, which corresponds to 5 million shares of Palantir at a stock price of $182, was reported as $912 million, but this figure represents potential exposure rather than actual investment [9][10]. Group 2: Market Concerns - Burry has expressed concerns about an AI bubble, comparing the current market situation to the internet bubble of 2000, citing overinflated valuations in companies like Nvidia, Palantir, Meta, and Oracle [11][12]. - He criticized these companies for excessive capital expenditures and for artificially inflating profits by extending asset depreciation periods [11]. Group 3: Fund Management Changes - Burry has quietly terminated the SEC registration of his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, indicating a potential shift in his investment strategy [13][16]. - In a letter to investors, he announced plans to liquidate the fund and return capital to investors, expressing disappointment with market valuations [14][16]. - Speculation arises that Burry may move towards a new independent platform for sharing investment insights, potentially bypassing traditional regulatory frameworks [17][18].

Core Insights - Barry's reported "short position of $1 billion" is clarified as a media miscalculation, with his actual investment being only $9.2 million [2][4] - Scion Asset Management, managed by Barry, has terminated its registration as of November 10 [2] Group 1: Short Position Details - Barry's Scion fund disclosed holdings in put options for AI companies Palantir and NVIDIA, indicating a bearish outlook on the market [4][5] - The media misinterpreted the notional value of the options as the actual investment amount, leading to confusion regarding the scale of Barry's short position [5] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the reports of Barry's supposed short position, U.S. tech stocks, including NVIDIA, experienced a significant decline [5][11] - NVIDIA's stock opened lower, dropping over 3% during trading [11] Group 3: Future Announcements - Barry hinted at a significant announcement on November 25, suggesting potential developments in his investment strategy [9]

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry, known as the "Big Short," has closed his Scion fund and clarified that his short position is significantly smaller than reported, leading to a decline in Nvidia's stock price by over 3% [1][8]. Group 1: Fund Closure and Short Position Clarification - Burry's Scion Asset Management has officially terminated its registration with the SEC as of November 10 [1]. - He stated that the reported "9.12 billion USD short" was a media miscalculation, with his actual investment being only 9.2 million USD [1][4]. - Burry disclosed holding 50,000 put options for Palantir, expiring on January 15, 2027, with a strike price of 50 USD, costing him 9.2 million USD in total [4][5]. Group 2: Market Impact and Future Announcements - The media's misinterpretation of Burry's positions contributed to a broader decline in U.S. tech stocks [4]. - Burry also holds 10,000 put options for Nvidia, expiring on December 17, 2027, but did not disclose the purchase price [5]. - He hinted at a significant announcement on November 25, suggesting that current market conditions will eventually be clarified [7].

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry, known as the "Big Short," has closed his Scion fund and withdrawn its registration from the SEC, leading to a decline in Nvidia's stock price by over 3% [2][12]. Group 1: Fund Closure and Market Impact - Burry's Scion Asset Management terminated its registration with the SEC effective November 10, 2025 [4][6]. - Following the announcement, Nvidia's stock opened lower, experiencing a drop of over 3% [12]. Group 2: Short Selling Clarification - Burry clarified that the reported "9.12 billion USD short" was a media miscalculation, stating his actual investment was only 9.2 million USD [6][7]. - He holds put options for Palantir and Nvidia, with 50,000 put options for Palantir and 10,000 for Nvidia, but the media often misinterprets the notional value as actual investment [7][10]. Group 3: Future Announcements - Burry hinted at a significant announcement on November 25, suggesting that current market conditions may reveal deeper truths [10].

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry, known as the "Big Short," has closed his Scion fund and clarified that his short position is significantly smaller than reported, leading to a decline in Nvidia's stock price [2][3][4]. Group 1: Fund Closure and Short Position - Burry's Scion Asset Management has terminated its registration with the SEC as of November 10 [4]. - He refuted media claims of a $1 billion short position, stating his actual investment was only $9.2 million [3][6]. - The fund's 13F filing revealed holdings in put options for AI companies Palantir and Nvidia, which contributed to a drop in tech stocks [6][8]. Group 2: Details of Short Positions - Burry holds 50,000 put options for Palantir with a strike price of $50, costing $9.2 million at a purchase price of $1.84 per option [6][8]. - He also possesses 10,000 put options for Nvidia with a strike price of $110, but the purchase price was not disclosed [8]. - The media often misinterprets the notional value of options as the actual investment amount, leading to confusion [8]. Group 3: Market Reaction - Following the news of Burry's actions, Nvidia's stock opened lower, dropping over 3% [14].