Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market has achieved a significant breakthrough with Bitcoin's price surpassing $130,000 for the first time, marking a historical high [1] - This price surge is driven by multiple factors, including increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, continuous inflow of institutional funds, and supportive cryptocurrency policies from the Trump administration [1][4] - Analysts have raised the short-term target price for Bitcoin to $140,000 following this breakthrough [1] Institutional Investment - The core driver behind Bitcoin's price increase is the sustained inflow of institutional funds, with Bitcoin ETFs accumulating over $85 billion since their launch, and a net inflow of $2.87 billion in the last 30 days [2] - Major Bitcoin ETFs, such as BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and Fidelity's Bitcoin ETF (FBTC), have seen their asset sizes exceed $32 billion and $21 billion respectively, indicating strong institutional interest in digital assets [2] - On-chain data shows that large addresses holding over 1,000 Bitcoins have increased their holdings by over 35,000 Bitcoins in the past two weeks, reflecting accelerated entry of large funds into the market [2] Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment supports Bitcoin's price rise, with the U.S. July PCE price index showing a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, below market expectations, which enhances the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 96%, historically beneficial for risk assets like Bitcoin [4] - A weakening U.S. dollar index, which has declined for three consecutive weeks, provides additional support for Bitcoin [4] Technical Analysis - Technical analysts believe Bitcoin's price is likely to continue rising, with a strong upward channel formed and short-term target prices set between $135,000 and $140,000 [5] - The relative strength index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions, but in a strong bull market, such conditions can persist for extended periods [5] - Market sentiment indicators show a fear and greed index at 88, indicating "extreme greed," which can remain high during the later stages of a bull market [5] Regulatory Environment - The global regulatory landscape is becoming clearer, with the U.S. approving Bitcoin ETFs and other financial centers like the EU, Singapore, and Hong Kong implementing cryptocurrency-friendly policies [7] - The EU's MiCA regulation provides a clear legal framework for crypto assets, while Singapore's financial authority has classified Bitcoin as a mainstream financial asset [7] - This regulatory clarity reduces policy uncertainty and boosts market confidence [7] Market Participation - Following Bitcoin's price breakthrough, market participation has reached new highs, with the number of active cryptocurrency wallet addresses exceeding 85 million, an 18% increase from the previous month [9] - The number of new wallet addresses has increased by 220,000 in the past 24 hours, indicating a significant influx of new users into the market [9] - Retail investor participation has notably increased, with small transactions between $1,000 and $10,000 rising by 92% [9] Future Outlook - Bitcoin's price is expected to continue rising after surpassing $130,000, with potential short-term fluctuations between $130,000 and $140,000 as it seeks a new equilibrium [10] - As the Federal Reserve's rate cut approaches, liquidity conditions are likely to improve, providing additional support for Bitcoin [10] - Long-term factors such as the halving effect, increased institutional adoption, and ongoing supply constraints are expected to sustain Bitcoin's strong price performance [10]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is viewed as a hedge against currency devaluation, with potential market reactions to Federal Reserve's monetary policy shifts [1] Group 1 - Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, states that Bitcoin serves as a tool to hedge against currency devaluation [1] - Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, emphasizes that all eyes will be on the upcoming cryptocurrency policy report from the Federal Reserve and the White House [1] - Any dovish comments from the Federal Reserve or hints from the White House about strategically purchasing Bitcoin reserves could quickly reverse Bitcoin's recent weakness [1]

Group 1 - The Senate is set to hold a crucial procedural vote on a stablecoin bill that could reshape the digital payment landscape, with support from the cryptocurrency industry and former President Trump [1] - The bipartisan bill aims to establish a regulatory framework for dollar-pegged tokens, requiring stablecoins to be backed one-to-one by short-term investments like federal debt and to be supervised by federal or state regulators [1] - Progressive Democrats have expressed concerns that the bill lacks essential safeguards to prevent systemic risks and criminal exploitation, criticizing it for not addressing Trump's profits from his own cryptocurrency transactions [2] Group 2 - The decision to halt debate on the bill means that previously proposed credit card processing competition provisions are unlikely to be included, which aimed to provide merchants with more options beyond Visa and Mastercard [3] - Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott indicated that credit card provisions may be considered as separate legislation rather than part of the stablecoin bill, with Senator Marshall still exploring next steps for a potential vote [3] - The outcome of this vote will not only determine the regulatory framework for stablecoins in the U.S. but also set the tone for the Trump administration's cryptocurrency policy, potentially triggering a new wave of capital flow and industry restructuring in a multi-trillion-dollar digital asset market [3]