AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 根据高盛银行的Will Nance等人发布的一份研究报告，高盛认为，当前市场正处于一场稳定币"淘金 热"的开端。 他们写道："稳定币是一个价值2710亿美元的全球市场，我们相信USDC（由Circle发行的稳定币）将受 益于其在合作伙伴币安平台内外的市场份额增长，因为正在进行的稳定币立法使该生态系统合法化，并 且加密生态系统也在扩张，这也可能受到立法的催化。根据目前的趋势和已宣布的举措，我们预计 USDC在2024-27年间将增长770亿美元，复合年均增长率（CAGR）达40%。" 高盛表示，稳定币的潜在市场总额高达数万亿美元。"Visa公司估算，支付领域的潜在市场规模为年支 付量约240万亿美元，其中消费者支付约占年支出的40万亿美元。B2B（企业对企业）支付约占600亿美 元，而P2P（个人对个人）支付和付款则构成了其余部分。" 该行总结道，"因此，从长远来看，支付是稳定币扩张的最明显来源。这个机会迄今为止基本上未被开 发，大部分稳定币活动是由加密货币交易活动和美国以外对美元敞口的需求所驱动的。" 因为在美国，稳定币必须由美元或美国债券以1比1的比例支持，所以每发行一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stablecoin market is entering a new expansion cycle, with potential scale reaching trillions of dollars, driven primarily by the payments sector [1][3]. Market Size and Growth Potential - The global stablecoin market currently stands at $271 billion, with Circle's USDC expected to benefit from legislative advancements and ecosystem expansion [1]. - By the end of 2027, USDC's market size is projected to grow by $77 billion, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% [1]. Payment Sector Insights - The global payments market is approximately $240 trillion annually, with consumer payments accounting for $40 trillion and B2B payments around $600 billion [3]. - The penetration of stablecoins in payment scenarios is seen as a core growth driver, despite current applications being dominated by cryptocurrency trading and offshore dollar demand [3]. Regulatory Environment and Market Dynamics - The issuance of stablecoins requires a 1:1 reserve of dollars or government bonds, which could structurally impact the bond market, particularly short-term low-interest government bonds [4]. - The recent passage of the GENIUS Act by the U.S. White House provides crucial institutional support for the stablecoin market [4]. - Tether's USDT remains the leading stablecoin, but regulatory limitations prevent it from directly serving U.S. users, while Circle aims to leverage new legislative benefits to expand USDC's adoption [4]. Competitive Landscape - Traditional financial institutions, such as U.S. banks, are planning to issue their own dollar-backed stablecoins, which may intensify competition for USDC's growth [4]. - Tether's CEO has indicated plans to strategize entry into the U.S. market, aiming to overcome current regulatory barriers [4]. Market Outlook and Diverging Opinions - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset expresses optimism about the stablecoin market, suggesting a $2 trillion market size is a "very reasonable target," potentially exceeding this figure [5]. - However, some analysts, including those from UBS, caution that stablecoins may represent a conversion of funds rather than net demand growth, highlighting a divergence in market perspectives on the actual impact of stablecoins [5].

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market has reached a historic milestone, surpassing a total market value of $4 trillion, driven by the acceleration of cryptocurrency legislation in the U.S., particularly the passage of the "Genius Act" [1] - The "Genius Act," supported by the Republican Party and former President Trump, aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins pegged to the U.S. dollar, ensuring their legality and compliance [1] - The act mandates that only licensed stablecoin issuers can operate in the U.S., subjecting them to strict regulations, including reserve asset requirements and anti-money laundering systems, enhancing consumer protection and the overall legitimacy of the cryptocurrency industry [1] Group 2 - The cryptocurrency ETF market in the U.S. has seen strong inflows, with Bitcoin ETFs attracting $5.5 billion in net inflows since July, and Ethereum ETFs drawing $2.9 billion during the same period, indicating institutional investors' optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency market [2] - The stablecoin market is projected to experience significant growth, with Citibank's research predicting a total circulation supply of stablecoins could reach $1.6 trillion by 2030, potentially rising to $3.7 trillion in an optimistic scenario, with U.S. dollar-denominated stablecoins expected to dominate [2] - Non-U.S. countries are also accelerating the development of their central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which may impact the stablecoin market dynamics [2]

Core Viewpoint - Stablecoins have become a hot topic, with significant interest from various sectors, including finance and academia, as evidenced by the recent IPO of Circle, which saw its stock price surge over 530% within a month [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, reported a total issuance of $60 billion as of March 28, indicating its strong position in the stablecoin market [2]. - The company connects traditional finance with digital assets and has gained the trust of leading financial institutions since its inception in 2013 [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global stablecoin market is valued at approximately $250 billion, with the two largest stablecoins, Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), accounting for about 90% of the total market capitalization [2]. - Stablecoins are primarily used for crypto trading, decentralized finance (DeFi), and collateral purposes, with last year's trading volume exceeding $20 trillion [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The U.S. Senate has passed significant legislation aimed at regulating stablecoins, which could solidify the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [3][4]. - Circle and Ripple have applied for U.S. national trust bank licenses, which would bring them under federal regulation and closer to the core of the U.S. financial system [6]. Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - The rise of stablecoins is seen as a tool in the geopolitical struggle between major powers, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations [5][9]. - Hong Kong is positioning itself as a testing ground for stablecoin development, with new regulations set to take effect on August 1, aimed at enhancing its status as an international financial center [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Predictions suggest that the stablecoin market could reach $2 trillion by 2028, although current usage in payment applications remains limited [9]. - The global adoption of stablecoins faces challenges, including limited use cases and fragmented regulation, as most countries focus on their own digital currency developments [9][10].

Group 1 - The euro to dollar exchange rate has dropped to around 1.1705, while the pound has risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, surpassing the 1.3700 mark during the European session [1] - The US dollar has regained strength against the yen, breaking through the 147.00 level, and the Australian dollar is fluctuating above 0.6500 [1] - The New Zealand dollar is showing an upward trend, trading around 0.6050, and the US dollar has also strengthened against the Canadian dollar, climbing to approximately 1.3700 [1] Group 2 - President Trump stated that those who challenge the dollar will pay a price, emphasizing the dollar's dominance [2] - Trump also suggested that if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell misleads Congress, he should resign immediately and called for an interest rate cut [3] - According to the Wall Street Journal, National Economic Council Director Hassett is a strong contender for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, having met with Trump in June [3] Group 3 - Fitch Ratings indicated that US stablecoin legislation could address key credit risks and enhance usage [4] - The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projected that by the early 2070s, UK debt will exceed 270% of GDP [5] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority provided liquidity of 46.7 billion HKD to banks through the discount window [6] - The Bank of Japan's committee member noted that the weighted median inflation remains below 2%, requiring careful examination of inflation stability in Japan's economy [6] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations, and indicated potential future rate cuts if mid-term inflation pressures ease [6] - A Reuters survey indicated that all 30 economists surveyed expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower the cash rate to 3.60% in August [6] Group 4 - The Thai Industrial Federation estimated that Thailand's exports have suffered losses of approximately 800 to 900 billion THB due to US tariff measures [7] - The Vietnamese Prime Minister stated that achieving a growth target of at least 8% by 2025 is a significant challenge [8] - The Bank of Thailand's meeting minutes suggested that monetary policy should remain accommodative to support economic development, with a low likelihood of a technical recession [8] Group 5 - Technical analysis for EUR/USD indicates resistance at the 2025 high of 1.1830, with support at the 55-day simple moving average at 1.1428 [9] - For AUD/USD, the Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows the pair testing the baseline, indicating potential short-term downside risk, although the overall trend remains unchanged [9] - GBP/USD is currently contesting the 2022 high of 1.3643, with support from the 21-day simple moving average at 1.3588 [10]

Core Insights - Fitch Ratings indicates that U.S. stablecoin legislation could address key credit risks and enhance usage rates [1] Group 1 - The potential legislation may provide a regulatory framework that mitigates existing credit risks associated with stablecoins [1] - Improved regulation could lead to increased adoption and trust in stablecoins among users and investors [1] - The move towards stablecoin regulation reflects a broader trend in the financial industry to ensure stability and security in digital assets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, anticipates that stablecoin legislation will increase demand for U.S. Treasury securities [1] Group 1 - The introduction of stablecoin legislation is expected to create a more regulated environment for digital currencies, which could lead to greater institutional adoption [1] - Increased demand for U.S. Treasury securities may result from the integration of stablecoins into the financial system, as they are often pegged to the U.S. dollar [1] - The potential growth in the stablecoin market could enhance liquidity in U.S. Treasury markets, benefiting both investors and the government [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trend of stablecoins and the regulatory developments in Hong Kong, highlighting the opportunities and risks in the virtual asset trading market as new policies come into effect [1][24]. Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The "Stablecoin Regulation" in Hong Kong will take effect on August 1, 2023, allowing the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to start accepting license applications [1]. - As of June 30, 2023, there are 11 licensed virtual asset trading platforms in Hong Kong, including prominent institutions like OSL and HashKey [5]. - HashKey Exchange has become the largest licensed virtual asset trading platform in Hong Kong, allowing retail investors to trade Bitcoin and Ethereum [6][12]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The virtual asset market in Hong Kong is diversifying, with various financial products available, including direct trading of digital currencies and derivatives like spot and futures ETFs [15][16]. - The first Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs were launched in Hong Kong in April 2024, significantly lowering the entry barrier for investors [17][18]. - As of May 2023, the total asset management scale of spot ETFs exceeded 3.8 billion HKD [20]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Bitcoin has seen a significant price surge, reaching over $110,000 and a total market capitalization exceeding $2.1 trillion, making it the fifth-largest asset globally [25][27]. - The global stablecoin issuance has surpassed $235 billion, with Tether's USDT being the most prominent stablecoin, holding nearly two-thirds of the market share [30]. - Stablecoins are expected to reshape the global payment landscape, providing stable investment opportunities compared to volatile cryptocurrencies [31]. Group 4: Challenges and Risks - Chinese residents are prohibited from participating in virtual asset trading through licensed financial institutions in Hong Kong [22][23]. - Regulatory differences and uncertainties pose challenges for the virtual currency market, with Hong Kong being the first region to comprehensively regulate fiat-backed stablecoins [36]. - The investment in stablecoins carries risks, particularly related to the issuers, emphasizing the importance of choosing regulated and compliant issuers [38][39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic situation in China, the US, and the Eurozone shows mixed trends, with trade - related factors and policy expectations influencing the markets. Macro - inflation trading is heating up, and investors should pay attention to specific sectors such as commodities and precious metals [1][3][4]. - The uncertainty of trade policies and the divergence between the US government and the Fed on monetary policy add to the complexity of the economic and market environment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Analysis - In China, the May data was mixed. Investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, and exports were under pressure. Only consumption showed resilience. The June official manufacturing PMI and other indices improved slightly, but the manufacturing PMI remained below the boom - bust line. The central bank's net injection in June was high, and attention should be paid to potential policy support from the July Politburo meeting [1]. - The US 5 - month retail sales declined significantly, mainly due to the drop in car purchases. The June Markit manufacturing PMI remained in expansion, and the price index had a large increase. The Fed is cautious about taking action on tariffs, and the "Big Beautiful" bill's passage is uncertain [3]. - The Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI reached a high level since 2018, and the June CPI met the ECB's target, providing a basis for pausing rate - cuts [2]. Trade Negotiations - The US tariff delay policy is approaching its expiration. The EU is willing to accept the "benchmark country tax" but seeks exemptions and quotas. The EU - US trade negotiation is ongoing, and the EU denies making concessions in the technology field. The UK - US trade agreement has taken effect, and Canada has canceled the digital service tax to promote trade negotiations. India and the US are deadlocked in trade negotiations [2]. Policy and Legislation - The Fed plans to relax key bank capital regulations. The stable - coin legislation may be introduced in mid - July, but its prospects are unclear due to the divergence between the US government and the Fed. The US Senate has suspended the review of the "Big Beautiful" bill due to internal Republican disagreements [3]. Sector - Specific Analysis - In the commodity market, the macro - inflation trading is heating up. The non - ferrous sector with supply constraints and gold related to inflation expectations are worthy of attention. The black sector depends on domestic policy expectations. Anti - dumping duties on stainless steel products from certain regions will continue for 5 years. In the energy sector, the EU will extend sanctions on Russia, and the oil price is affected by geopolitical factors. Attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6 [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and gold at low prices [5]. Key Data - China's June official manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, and comprehensive PMI output index was 50.7%, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points respectively from the previous month [1]. - The US 5 - month retail sales decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest decline since March 2023 [3]. - The Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI was 49.5, and the June CPI initial value increased by 2% year - on - year [2][7].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Tin: Upward Movement Driven by Macroeconomic Environment" and was released on July 2, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analysts' Information - The analysts are Wang Rong (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0002529, Email: wangrong013179@gtjas.com) and Liu Yuxuan (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0020476, Email: liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com) [2] Group 3: Tin Fundamental Data Futures and Electronic Disk - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract yesterday was 269,840, with a daily increase of 0.65%, and the night - session closing price was 269,840, with a night - session increase of 0.63%. The trading volume was 70,070, a decrease of 14,968 from the previous day, and the open interest was 31,494, an increase of 10 from the previous day. The inventory was 6,766, an increase of 16 from the previous day [2] - The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 33,750, with a daily increase of 0.55%. The trading volume was 180, a decrease of 9 from the previous day, and the open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 from the previous day. The inventory was 2,220, an increase of 45 from the previous day, and the注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [2] Spot and Price Differences - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 266,500, a decrease of 700 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 266,900, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous day. The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was 128, an increase of 7 from the previous day [2] - The spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 73,930, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was - 1,210, a decrease of 240 from the previous day [2] Industry Chain Key Price Data - The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 254,500, a decrease of 700 from the previous day; the price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 258,500, a decrease of 700 from the previous day [2] - The price of 63A solder bar was 180,750, a decrease of 500 from the previous day; the price of 60A solder bar was 173,250, a decrease of 500 from the previous day [2] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - The EU is willing to accept a 10% tariff rate on multiple commodities from the US but hopes to exclude key industries [3] - Canada has conceded and cancelled the digital services tax. The US and Canada will resume trade negotiations to reach an agreement by July 21 [3] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said there is no intention to increase the proportion of long - term US Treasury bond issuance; stablecoin legislation may be introduced in mid - July [3] - Trump has expanded his targets of attack, criticizing the Federal Reserve Board including Powell; the White House said Trump wrote to the Federal Reserve on Monday, mentioning global interest rates [3] - China's official manufacturing PMI in June rose for two consecutive months to 49.7, the new order index returned to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing sector continued to expand [3] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. - 2 means the most bearish, and 2 means the most bullish [3][4]