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大越期货菜粕早报-20250901
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 05:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2480 - 2540. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, it will enter a pattern of strong oscillation, affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal is oscillating and rebounding, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. The spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season in the short term, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still variables in China - Canada trade negotiations [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market. The demand side maintains a good outlook. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, and the geopolitical conflict still has the potential to rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: From August 20th to 29th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, with the 2601 contract showing a weak oscillation. Rapeseed meal futures oscillated and declined, while the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium slightly expanded [13][17][19]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 21,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.65% compared to last week's 25,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 25% compared to last year's 28,000 tons. The inventory of imported rapeseed at oil mills rebounded from a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly. The rapeseed crushing volume at oil mills decreased slightly [9][24][26]. - **Production and Price of Aquatic Products**: The production and price of aquatic products showed different trends. Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [34]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [9].
利好出尽,菜粕冲高回落
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 03:21
Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report title: "利好出尽,菜粕冲高回落(菜粕周报8.18 - 8.22)" [1] - Analyst: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The rapeseed meal market is influenced by factors such as the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports, the demand seasonality, and the soybean meal market. In the short term, it is in a volatile and relatively strong pattern, but there are still uncertainties [8]. - The trading strategy for rapeseed meal futures is short - term volatile and relatively strong, with the RM2601 contract oscillating above 2500 in the short term. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the supply expectation of the domestic rapeseed market has improved while demand remains strong [10]. - The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The result of the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain [10]. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly due to lower - than - expected yields in the EU and Canada [10]. - The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has an offsetting impact on rapeseed production, and the potential increase in global geopolitical conflicts still supports commodity prices [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June; uncertainties in the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [11]. - The current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Rapeseed Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2014 - 2023, the harvest area, production, total supply, and other indicators of domestic rapeseed have changed. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated between 0.87% - 7.19% [16]. - **Rapeseed Meal Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2014 - 2023, the production, total supply, demand, and inventory of domestic rapeseed meal have changed. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated between 2.47% - 10.55% [18]. - **Other Fundamental Data**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in August was lower than expected, with a slight fluctuation in import cost; the oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume increased slightly; the rapeseed inventory in oil mills dropped to a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly; the prices of aquatic fish fluctuated slightly, and the prices of shrimp and shellfish remained stable; the rapeseed meal futures fluctuated downwards after rising, while the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium narrowed; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract was weakly volatile [19][21][23][31][33][37]. 5. Position Data - The short positions of the main players in the rapeseed meal market increased, and the funds flowed out [8]. 6. Technical Analysis - Affected by the preliminary anti - dumping ruling of Chinese imports of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed meal is in a short - and medium - term volatile and relatively strong pattern. The KDJ and MACD indicators show that the short - term market is in a technical adjustment phase, and the future trend depends on policies and the soybean meal market [43]. 7. Next Week's Focus - Most important: The planting weather in US soybean - producing areas; the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand; the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [46]. - Second most important: The domestic demand for soybean meal and aquaculture; the inventory of rapeseed meal in domestic oil mills and downstream procurement [47]. - Less important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [47].