交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 政策面扰动，菜粕维持震荡 （菜粕周报9.22-9.26） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜籽进 口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，但 国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受消息面影响维持震荡。 中性 2.基差：现货2520，基差115，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is increasing. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. Amid frequent trade policy news, the market is cautious, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, domestic consumption support is limited, and the supply - demand of vegetable oil is still loose. But the low oil mill operating rate and limited near - month rapeseed purchases reduce supply pressure. Before the Sino - Canadian trade negotiation makes substantial progress, rapeseed oil may maintain a relatively strong oscillation [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed all decreased. For example, the futures收盘价(活跃合约) of rapeseed oil dropped by 147 yuan/ton to 9996 yuan/ton [2]. - There were changes in month - to - month spreads, open interest, net long positions, and warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal [2]. 现货市场 - Spot prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and related substitutes decreased. For instance, the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu dropped by 160 yuan/ton to 10050 yuan/ton [2]. - The oil - meal ratio increased by 0.06 to 3.9, and there were changes in basis and spot price differences between different oils and meals [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production increased slightly, and the import volume of rapeseed increased by 7.06 tons to 24.66 tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit increased by 56 yuan/ton to 987 yuan/ton [2]. - The oil mill inventory of rapeseed remained unchanged, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed increased by 0.27% to 13.06% [2]. Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal changed, and the inventory of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in coastal, East China, and other regions also changed. For example, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory increased by 1 ton to 14 tons [2]. - The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed increased by 99.9 tons to 2927.2 tons, and the monthly output of edible vegetable oil increased by 30 tons to 450.6 tons. The monthly catering revenue decreased by 8.4 billion yuan to 4495.7 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility and historical volatility of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil options changed. For example, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options of rapeseed meal increased by 1.79% to 18.8% [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures declined due to the weakness of CBOT soybean oil futures. The US soybean market is affected by factors such as harvest area adjustment, and Argentina's cancellation of agricultural export taxes may intensify international competition [2]. Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions reported by Myagric on Monday, as well as the trends of Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2480 - 2540. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, it will enter a pattern of strong oscillation, affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal is oscillating and rebounding, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. The spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season in the short term, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still variables in China - Canada trade negotiations [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market. The demand side maintains a good outlook. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, and the geopolitical conflict still has the potential to rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: From August 20th to 29th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, with the 2601 contract showing a weak oscillation. Rapeseed meal futures oscillated and declined, while the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium slightly expanded [13][17][19]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 21,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.65% compared to last week's 25,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 25% compared to last year's 28,000 tons. The inventory of imported rapeseed at oil mills rebounded from a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly. The rapeseed crushing volume at oil mills decreased slightly [9][24][26]. - **Production and Price of Aquatic Products**: The production and price of aquatic products showed different trends. Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [34]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [9].

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report title: "利好出尽，菜粕冲高回落（菜粕周报8.18 - 8.22）" [1] - Analyst: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The rapeseed meal market is influenced by factors such as the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports, the demand seasonality, and the soybean meal market. In the short term, it is in a volatile and relatively strong pattern, but there are still uncertainties [8]. - The trading strategy for rapeseed meal futures is short - term volatile and relatively strong, with the RM2601 contract oscillating above 2500 in the short term. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the supply expectation of the domestic rapeseed market has improved while demand remains strong [10]. - The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The result of the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain [10]. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly due to lower - than - expected yields in the EU and Canada [10]. - The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has an offsetting impact on rapeseed production, and the potential increase in global geopolitical conflicts still supports commodity prices [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June; uncertainties in the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [11]. - The current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Rapeseed Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2014 - 2023, the harvest area, production, total supply, and other indicators of domestic rapeseed have changed. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated between 0.87% - 7.19% [16]. - **Rapeseed Meal Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2014 - 2023, the production, total supply, demand, and inventory of domestic rapeseed meal have changed. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated between 2.47% - 10.55% [18]. - **Other Fundamental Data**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in August was lower than expected, with a slight fluctuation in import cost; the oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume increased slightly; the rapeseed inventory in oil mills dropped to a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly; the prices of aquatic fish fluctuated slightly, and the prices of shrimp and shellfish remained stable; the rapeseed meal futures fluctuated downwards after rising, while the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium narrowed; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract was weakly volatile [19][21][23][31][33][37]. 5. Position Data - The short positions of the main players in the rapeseed meal market increased, and the funds flowed out [8]. 6. Technical Analysis - Affected by the preliminary anti - dumping ruling of Chinese imports of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed meal is in a short - and medium - term volatile and relatively strong pattern. The KDJ and MACD indicators show that the short - term market is in a technical adjustment phase, and the future trend depends on policies and the soybean meal market [43]. 7. Next Week's Focus - Most important: The planting weather in US soybean - producing areas; the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand; the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [46]. - Second most important: The domestic demand for soybean meal and aquaculture; the inventory of rapeseed meal in domestic oil mills and downstream procurement [47]. - Less important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [47].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2540 - 2600. The market is influenced by the news of Australian seed imports and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, it is in a moderately strong oscillating pattern [9]. - The spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season in the short term, and the low inventory supports the price. However, after the National Day, the demand will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still variables in China - Canada trade consultations [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in the 2540 - 2600 range. The market is affected by the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the news of Australian seed imports. The short - term outlook is moderately strong oscillation [9]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, with good demand expectations [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and an import deposit of 75.8% is imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU production and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and additional import deposit on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the final result of the anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and demand balance sheets**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [25][26] - **Price and trading volume**: Data on the average trading price and trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from August 12 - 21 are provided, as well as the price comparison between rapeseed meal futures and spot [13][15]. - **Warehouse receipts**: The number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts from August 12 - 21 is provided, showing a decreasing trend [17]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out, which is bearish [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2540 - 2600. The short - term trend of rapeseed meal is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, resulting in a short - term shock - strengthening pattern. [8] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal prices rose and then fell. The short - term shock - strengthening pattern is due to factors such as the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, high demand in the short - term, and low inventory. The price range for RM2601 is expected to be between 2540 and 2600. [8] 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market while maintaining good demand expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and import deposit collection has begun. Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, and the geopolitical conflict still has the potential to rise, which supports commodity prices. [10] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, the spot is at a premium to the futures, the price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward, and the oil mill's rapeseed meal inventory is not under pressure in the short term. Bearish factors: Rapeseed meal inventory has increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, and the main short positions have increased with capital outflows. The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is still uncertain. [8] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the supply - demand situation. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has affected the market. [10] - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 3.2 tons, a 18.52% week - on - week increase and a 14.29% year - on - year increase. [8] - **Price**: The spot price is 2640, with a basis of 34, indicating a premium to the futures. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward. [8] 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have increased, and capital has flowed out. [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as the lower - than - expected arrival of rapeseed, the increase in rapeseed imports, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. It is expected to have a short - term range - bound and slightly bullish trend [8][13]. - The short - term demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season, and the inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is under short - term control, but the upside potential may be limited due to the lack of tariff on rapeseed imports [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints - The arrival of imported rapeseed in July was lower than expected, with a slight fluctuation in import cost. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills decreased slightly, while the rapeseed meal inventory increased from a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills fluctuated slightly [20][22][24]. - Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable. The rapeseed meal futures price recovered from the bottom, and the spot price fluctuated slightly, with a relatively high premium [32][34]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the peak season, and the supply of the domestic rapeseed market has improved. The annual rapeseed output in Canada has decreased slightly, and the global rapeseed output has also decreased slightly due to the reduction in the EU and Canada [10]. - The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict may support commodity prices. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [10]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors are the listing of domestic rapeseed in June, the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023, showing the changes in harvest area, output, inventory, and other indicators [17][19]. - **Aquatic Product Data**: It includes the production of Chinese aquatic products, fish, shellfish, and shrimps, as well as the OECD's forecast of Chinese fish production and imports [26][28][30]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal increased, but the funds flowed out [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal is affected by factors such as the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2620, and the basis is - 102, indicating a discount to futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 15,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 228% and a year - on - year decrease of 58.06% [8]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Futures are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, with the RM2509 contract ranging above 2600. Options are recommended to be on the sidelines [13][14]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal has recovered from the bottom and is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short and medium term. The KDJ and MACD indicators show a slightly bullish short - term trend, but the upside potential may be limited [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term "oscillating and slightly bullish" rating for rapeseed meal futures [13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds, influenced by soybean meal and technical consolidation. With low oil - mill operation and low inventory, and short - term peak demand, the market is in short - term range oscillation. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed limits the positive impact. In the short term, rapeseed meal may rise and then fall due to low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff, and return to range oscillation driven by soybean meal [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints - Rapeseed meal is expected to be influenced by low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, rising and then falling, and returning to range oscillation due to soybean meal [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed improves the supply - tight expectation. The demand side has good expectations. Canadian rapeseed annual output decreases slightly, and China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, along with ongoing anti - dumping investigations on Canadian rapeseed imports, have uncertain future results. Global rapeseed output decreases slightly due to EU and Canadian production. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and geopolitical conflicts support commodities [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal [11]. - **Bearish factors**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; uncertainties in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and seasonal low demand for rapeseed meal [12]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Rapeseed arrival**: The arrival of imported rapeseed in July is lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuates slightly [20]. - **Oil - mill crushing and inventory**: Oil - mill rapeseed inventory drops slightly, rapeseed meal inventory remains low, and the rapeseed crushing volume fluctuates slightly [22][24]. - **Rapeseed meal transaction**: Rapeseed meal rebounds from the bottom, and the spot price fluctuates slightly following the futures, with a high - level spot discount [34]. - **Aquaculture**: Aquatic fish prices fluctuate slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [32]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions decrease, and funds flow out [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds, driven by soybean meal and technical consolidation. Low oil - mill operation and low inventory support the market. Spot demand is in peak season, and the arrival of imported rapeseed increases, but short - term inventory pressure is low. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed limits the positive impact [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2520, and the basis is - 113, indicating a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 tons, a 58.18% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.1 tons and an 84.67% year - on - year decrease from last year's 3 tons [8]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward [8]. - **Main positions**: The main long positions decrease, and funds flow out [8]. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal may rise and then fall in the short term due to low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff, and return to range oscillation driven by soybean meal [8]. - **Trading strategies**: - **Futures**: Short - term oscillation is slightly bullish. RM2509 oscillates above 2500 in the short term. Short - term trading or waiting is recommended [13]. - **Options**: Wait and see [14]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal rebounds and returns to range oscillation in the short and medium term, influenced by the listing of domestic rapeseed and good demand. Future Sino - Canadian trade relations and the follow - up impact of the Sino - US tariff war will affect the market. The KDJ indicator oscillates at a high level, and the short - term market is slightly bullish, but the upward space may be limited. The MACD rebounds, and the short - term market is slightly bullish, but the red energy is insufficient. The future trend depends on rapeseed import policies and soybean meal [43]. 3.8 Next Week's Concerns - **Most important**: The planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [46]. - **Second - most important**: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, domestic oil - mill rapeseed meal inventory, and downstream procurement [47]. - **Less important**: Macroeconomic factors and the Palestine - Israel conflict.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2520 - 2580. It is currently affected by factors such as low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, leading to a short - term rise followed by a fall. With the influence of soybean meal, its price will return to range - bound oscillation in the short term [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market [11]. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the future outcome uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: The increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [12]. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [24][25]. - **Price and Transaction Data**: From June 17 - 26, the average transaction price of soybean meal decreased from 2994 yuan/ton to 2889 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price of rapeseed meal decreased from 2600 yuan/ton to 2500 yuan/ton. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [13]. - **Inventory Data**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 1.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 63.93% [9]. - **Aquaculture Data**: Aquatic fish prices have slightly rebounded, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [39]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal have decreased, and funds have flowed out [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal is affected by soybean meal and technical oscillations. Low oil mill operation and low inventory support the market. Short - term demand is in the peak season, and although the arrival of imported rapeseed has increased, short - term inventory pressure is low, making the short - term market oscillate strongly [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2500 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 50, indicating a discount to the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory has decreased significantly compared to the previous week and the same period last year [9]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average but moving upwards [9]. - **Main Position**: The main long positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out [9]. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2520 - 2580 in the short term [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2610 - 2670. The short - term trend is slightly bullish due to factors such as low inventory of rapeseed meal and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, but it will return to range - bound trading influenced by factors like increased imports of rapeseed and the impact of soybean meal [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds. The low - level operation of oil mills and low inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal enters the peak season. The increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed does not pose short - term pressure on the inventory of oil mills. The short - term trend is slightly bullish. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the positive effect may be limited [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. - The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the future result uncertain. - The global rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, mainly affected by the decline in EU rapeseed output and lower - than - expected Canadian rapeseed output. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed output and the increase in Russian rapeseed output offsetting each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports bulk commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Bearish factors**: The increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed after March; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 19,000 tons, a 5% week - on - week decrease from last week's 20,000 tons and a 32.14% year - on - year decrease from 28,000 tons in the same period last year [9]. - **Price**: The spot price is 2540, with a basis of - 98, indicating a discount to the futures price [9]. - **Market trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards [9]. - **Supply and demand balance sheets**: Data on domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023 are provided, including information on harvest area, inventory, output, consumption, etc. [23][24]. 3.5 Position Data - The long positions of the main players have increased, and capital has flowed in [9]. - The import of rapeseed in June is lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuates strongly. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills has stopped falling and rebounded, while the rapeseed meal inventory has slightly declined. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills has slightly increased [25][28][30].