交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2026-01-12 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2605：2300至2360区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大总理 访问中国及中加贸易关系成果。菜粕现货需求进入淡季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，加上 中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2520，基差182，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存0吨，上周0吨，周环比持平，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减少100%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方但方向向上。中性 5.主力持仓：主力空单增加，资金流入，偏空 6.预 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 加总理访华，菜粕震荡回落 （菜粕周报1.5-1.9） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大总理 访问中国及中加贸易关系成果。菜粕现货需求进入淡季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，加上 中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2520，基差182，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存0吨，上周0吨，周环比持平，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减少100%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方但方向向上。中性 5.主力持仓：主力空单增加，资金流入，偏空 6.预期：菜粕受加拿大总理访问中国及中加贸易关系成果尚有变数影响震荡偏弱，加上近期 国内菜粕进入供需淡季，短期维持震荡格局，关注后续发展。 近期要 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 供需两淡，菜粕维持震荡 （菜粕周报12.29-12.31） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求进入淡季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，加 上中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2530，基差165，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存0吨，上周0吨，周环比持平，去年同期2.8万吨，同比减少100%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓：主力多翻空，资金流出，偏空 6.预期：菜粕受加拿大油 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 低位买盘支撑，菜粕震荡回升 （菜粕周报12.22-12.26） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ✸菜粕观点和策略 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求进入淡季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，加 上中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2560，基差169，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存0吨，上周0吨，周环比持平，去年同期2.8万吨，同比减少100%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓：主力多单增加，资金流入，偏多 6.预期：菜粕受加拿大油菜籽反倾销最终裁定尚有变数影响回归震荡，加上近期国内菜粕进 入供需淡季，短期维持震荡格局，关 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 供需淡季，菜粕震荡回落 （菜粕周报12.15-12.19） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求进入淡季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，加 上中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2490，基差167，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存0.02万吨，上周0.02万吨，周环比持平，去年同期2.8万吨，同比减少 99.29%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓：主力多翻空，资金流入，偏空 6 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 供需淡季，菜粕震荡回落 （菜粕周报12.1-12.5） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求旺季过去，但库存维持低位支撑盘面， 加上中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2500，基差123，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓：主力多单减少，资金流入， ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Rapeseed Meal Morning Report - Report Date: November 17, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate within the range of 2440 - 2500. The market is in a wait - and - see mode for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain a range - bound pattern [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with short - term supply in the spot market expected to be tight and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues may reduce short - term imports. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has found it to be established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offsetting each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, providing support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. - Main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading Data**: From November 6th to 14th, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 3078 - 3106 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 4.69 - 31.41 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was 2600 - 2650 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually increased from 442 to 506 yuan/ton [13]. - **Price Data**: From November 6th to 14th, the price of rapeseed meal futures main contract 2601 decreased from 2549 to 2490 yuan/ton, the far - month contract 2605 fluctuated slightly, and the rapeseed meal spot price (Fujian) decreased from 2650 to 2600 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: From November 5th to 14th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 2955 to 2745, with a decrease of 200 on November 6th and remaining stable thereafter [17]. - **Other Data**: Imported rapeseed arrivals have no shipping schedule forecast for November, and import costs are affected by tariffs. Oil mill rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory are at low levels, and the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remains low. Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [23][25][35]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal first rose and then fell, affected by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market, and the short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and maintains a range - bound pattern. It is rated as neutral [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2600, the basis is 110, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 17,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% compared to last week's 18,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared to 22,000 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - **Market**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward, which is bullish [9]. - **Main Position**: The main long positions have increased, but the funds have flowed out, which is bullish [9]. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal has fluctuated and declined due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. With the recent rumors of improved China - Canada trade relations, it has returned to a range - bound pattern in the short term, and subsequent developments should be monitored [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market lacks clear guidance and follows the soybean meal to oscillate and rebound. It is currently in an interval oscillation pattern, affected by factors such as the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the improvement rumors of China - Canada trade relations [8]. - The short - term trading strategy for rapeseed meal futures is to oscillate with a slight upward trend. For the RM2601 contract, it oscillates around 2400 in the short term, and short - term trading or waiting and seeing is recommended. The option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Prompt - The rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds, driven by soybean meal and in a technical oscillation adjustment. The market returns to oscillation, waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but the low inventory supports the market. Due to uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market will maintain an interval oscillation in the short term, affected by soybean meal [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced the short - term export and domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain, depending on the further development of China - Canada trade relations. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodity prices [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal. - **Bearish factors**: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand balance sheets**: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, inventory, output, consumption, etc. - **Import and production situation**: There is no ship schedule forecast for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume remains low, and the rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories continue to decline. - **Aquaculture situation**: Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable. The rapeseed meal futures have rebounded after reaching the bottom, the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuates slightly. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has rebounded from a low level [16][18][19]. 3.5 Technical Analysis - The rapeseed meal rebounds with the soybean meal and returns to an interval oscillation pattern due to the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The future China - Canada trade relationship is uncertain, affecting the market. - The KDJ indicator rebounds from a low level. It is in a short - term technical rebound stage, but the high - level indicator limits the rebound height. - The MACD rebounds from a low level, and the green energy turns red. The subsequent upward trend depends on the soybean meal and rapeseed import policies. Overall, the rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds in the short term and maintains an interval oscillation in the medium term, mainly driven by policy changes and short - term soybean meal trends [42]. 3.6 Next Week's Focus - **Most important**: The harvesting weather in the US soybean - producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and startup of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China. - **Second important**: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, and the rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills and downstream procurement. - **Less important**: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [44].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2300 - 2360. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand enters the off - season and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market lacks short - term guidance and maintains a volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2300 - 2360 range oscillation. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is 133, showing a premium over futures, which is bullish; the inventory is 1.75 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish; the price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish; the main short positions are decreasing and funds are flowing in, which is bearish. Due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the rumor of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations, it has returned to a volatile pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply in the spot market expected to be tight and decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term export expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, with a 75.8% import deposit imposed, but the final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other, global geopolitical conflicts may still support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of a settlement in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From October 14th to 22nd, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 2959 - 2992, and the trading volume was between 6.51 - 18.62 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2440 - 2500, and the trading volume was 0. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was between 2440 - 2500. The rapeseed meal futures prices of the 2601 and 2605 contracts fluctuated. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 9089 on October 13th to 4702 on October 22nd. Rapeseed meal futures declined, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a small - fluctuating premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillated at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed continued to decline, and the weekly rapeseed meal inventory was flat. The oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume remained low. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][15][16]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the report

Group 1 - Palm oil and imported rapeseed oil spot prices have risen across the board, while domestic rapeseed meal and white sugar prices have mostly declined, with domestic soybean oil and cotton prices remaining stable. The rapeseed meal spot price has decreased by 30 yuan/ton [1] - As of October 14, the main contract for rapeseed meal futures closed at 2348.00 yuan/ton, down 2.09%, with a daily trading volume of 274,532 contracts [2] - Coastal regions' major oil mills have a rapeseed inventory of 18,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the previous week, while rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 16,700 tons to 60,000 tons [3] Group 2 - The number of rapeseed meal futures warehouse receipts on October 13 was 9,089, a decrease of 110 from the previous trading day [4] - According to a report by Ruida Futures, there has been no substantial progress in trade negotiations between China and the U.S. or China and Canada, which will limit rapeseed and soybean imports in the fourth quarter, resulting in relatively low supply-side pressure. However, as temperatures drop, demand for aquaculture is expected to weaken, leading to a decline in rapeseed meal demand [5]