1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Cotton, Red dates, Live pigs (Cautious bullish) [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal (Large - range oscillation); Palm oil (Short - term consolidation) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean meal**: In a large - range oscillation due to the intertwined influence of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs. This week's inventory reduction and the decline in the good - quality rate of US soybeans are bullish factors, but there is a risk of an increase in the US soybean yield per unit in the August USDA report next week, making the market cautious about going long [1]. - **Rapeseed meal**: In a large - range oscillation. The global rapeseed production is recovering year - on - year, but there is a risk of a reduction in the yield per unit of Canadian rapeseed. The decline in rapeseed imports from August to October, the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price, while the substitution of soybean meal for rapeseed meal consumption and the improvement in Canadian rapeseed import profit are bearish factors [1]. - **Palm oil**: Short - term consolidation. The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption expectation of the palm oil market, but the possible inventory accumulation of Malaysian palm oil in July may suppress short - term prices. It is advisable to be cautious about chasing long positions and look for opportunities to go long after price stabilization [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish. The moisture conditions in the main US cotton - producing areas continue to deteriorate slightly, and the export improvement expectation is limited. In China, the increase in the actual sown area and yield per unit of new cotton boosts the guaranteed output. The rapid commercial de - stocking and the slowdown in downstream finished - product restocking provide short - term support. The downstream is gradually entering the stocking market, and the decline space before the new cotton is listed is expected to be limited [1]. - **Red dates**: Cautiously bullish. There are still significant differences in the market regarding the extent of the production reduction, and there is still a risk of over - hyped production reduction. It is advisable to be cautious about going long this week and pay attention to the previous high pressure level [1]. - **Live pigs**: Cautiously bullish. The previous second - fattening sales and the acceleration of the short - term slaughter rhythm have pushed down the price of live pigs, but the recovery of the price difference between standard and fat pigs still promotes some second - fattening speculation. The medium - and long - term production capacity remains high, and the gradual reduction of production capacity by leading enterprises is expected to boost the far - month contracts. It presents a situation of "weak reality, strong expectation" [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 823.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.20 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 655.59 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.00 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 104.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons [3]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main soybean meal contract was 3026 yuan/ton, a 0.10% increase from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3006.29 yuan/ton, a 0.27% decrease from the previous day [2]. - **Market situation**: The de - stocking this week and the decline in the good - quality rate of US soybeans are bullish, but there is a risk of an increase in the US soybean yield per unit in the August USDA report next week [1]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory was 11.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 2.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8 million tons; the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions across the country was 62.88 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.66 million tons [7]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main rapeseed meal contract was 2745 yuan/ton, a 0.77% increase from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2753.16 yuan/ton, a 1.75% increase from the previous day [5]. - **Market situation**: The decline in rapeseed imports from August to October, the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price, while the substitution of soybean meal for rapeseed meal consumption and the improvement in Canadian rapeseed import profit are bearish factors [1]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.22 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.33 million tons [9]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main palm oil contract was 8970 yuan/ton, a 1.04% decrease from the previous day; the national average price was 9040 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase from the previous day [8]. - **Market situation**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption expectation of the palm oil market, but the possible inventory accumulation of Malaysian palm oil in July may suppress short - term prices [1]. 3.4 Cotton - **Inventory**: The domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased to 215.71 million tons, 17.43 million tons lower than the same period [11]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract CF2509 was 13690 yuan/ton, a 0.15% decrease; the domestic spot price increased by 0.06% to 15196 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market situation**: The US cotton good - quality rate is stable and higher than the same period, but the non - drought rate in the US cotton area is decreasing. In China, the new cotton production is expected to increase, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is gradually improving [12][13]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10039 tons this week, a week - on - week decrease of 51 tons, higher than the same period [16]. - **Price**: The main red date contract CJ2601 increased by 1.71% to 10980 yuan/ton [16]. - **Market situation**: There are differences in the market regarding the production reduction amplitude, and the high - inventory pressure restricts the rebound height [17]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Inventory and出栏**: The national sample enterprise live pig inventory in June was 3763.32 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%; the出栏 volume was 1091.68 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.01% [18]. - **Price**: The main live pig contract Lh2511 increased by 0.68% to 14010 yuan/ton, and the domestic live pig spot price remained stable at 14340 yuan/ton [19]. - **Market situation**: The short - term出栏 increase and the second - fattening speculation co - exist. The medium - and long - term production capacity is high, and leading enterprises are gradually reducing production capacity [19][20].