Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The 9 - month USDA supply - demand report's downward adjustment of US soybean yield was less than expected, while demand - side压榨 was increased and exports were further decreased. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 year was 300 million bushels, slightly higher than market expectations, bringing some negative impacts. However, the US soybean balance sheet remains tight, with the good - excellent rate dropping to 63% this week, and it may continue to decline due to less rainfall and high temperatures in the producing areas [7]. - In September, the expected arrival of soybeans in China is over 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to be in a inventory - accumulation cycle. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, and the supply - demand gap of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policy changes. On the demand side, short - term high inventory of pig and poultry farming supports feed demand, but policy - oriented control of pig inventory and weight is expected to affect long - term pig supply. Soybean meal has high cost - effectiveness and high pick - up volume [8]. - In terms of inventory, domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; oil - mill soybean meal inventory has increased but is lower than the same period last year, and it is expected to be in an inventory - accumulation cycle in the short term; the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have slightly decreased. Overall, due to the expectation of Sino - US tax cuts and the impact of the pig production capacity control symposium, M01 increased positions and volume declined today, the crushing profit deteriorated, and cost - side expectations provide support at the bottom, with an overall expected volatile trend [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - **Soybean Meal Main Contract Basis (Zhangjiagang)**: On September 17, basis data for different regions and time periods are provided, such as Dalian with a value of 58 (25/26), Tianjin with 18, and different values for other regions and time intervals [5]. - **43% Soybean Meal Spot Basis**: Basis data for different regions and time periods are presented, including negative values like - 22 in some cases [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis**: Data for different regions and time periods are given, such as 129 in Guangdong with a change of - 14 [5]. 3.2 Spread Data - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Spot spread in the factory area is 300, and the spread on the main contract is 542 [6]. 3.3 International and Inventory Data - **Soybean CNF Premium and Profitability**: Brazilian soybean CNF premium and import soybean crushing profit data are provided, with the Brazilian premium having different values in different months and a change of - 6 in one case, and the crushing profit being 293 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory Data**: Data on Chinese port soybean inventory, major oil - mill soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and major oil - mill soybean meal inventory are presented for different years from 2020 - 2025, showing trends of increase and decrease in different periods [6]. 3.4开机 and Pressing Data - **Oil - Mill Operating Rate and Soybean Pressing Volume**: Data on the operating rate (%) and soybean pressing volume (10,000 tons) of major oil mills from 2020 - 2023 are provided, showing different trends over time [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The 9 - month USDA supply - demand report's downward adjustment of US soybean yield was less than expected, with increased demand for crushing and decreased exports, resulting in a slightly higher than expected 25/26 US soybean ending inventory, bringing some bearish influence. However, the new US soybean balance sheet remains tight. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate dropped to 63% this week, and may continue to decline due to less rainfall and high temperatures in the production area recently [8]. - In September, the expected arrival volume of domestic soybeans is over 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to be in a stockpiling cycle. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, and the supply - demand gap of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policy changes [9]. - On the demand side, short - term high inventories of pigs and poultry support feed demand, but policy guidance to control pig inventory and weight is expected to affect future pig supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and high提货 volume. - In terms of inventory, domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; oil - mill soybean meal inventory has increased but is lower than the same period last year, and is expected to be in a short - term stockpiling cycle; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has slightly declined. - Overall, the profit of domestic soybean purchase and shipping has deteriorated. Due to the comprehensive import cost support expectation of US soybean premium and basis, the downside space of the futures market is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US policy changes [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Data Daily - On September 16, the basis of the soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang) showed different values in different regions. For example, in Dalian it was 39, in Tianjin - 1, in Rizhao - 41, etc. The 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) also varied by region, such as - 11 in Zhangjiagang, - 61 in Dongguan, etc. There were also data on the basis of rapeseed meal, spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and other related spread data [6]. - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.0735, and the import soybean futures gross profit and other international data were presented, along with inventory data of Chinese port soybeans, major oil - mill soybeans, major oil - mill soybean meal, and the number of days of feed - enterprise soybean meal inventory. There were also data on the major oil - mill soybean crushing volume and the major oil - mill operating rate [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: The 9 - month USDA supply - demand report had an unexpected impact on the US soybean balance sheet. In China, the soybean arrival volume in September is expected to be high, and the soybean meal stockpiling situation is expected to change in different months. The supply - demand gap in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policies [8][9]. - Demand side: The short - term high inventories of pigs and poultry support feed demand, but policy may affect future pig supply. Soybean meal has high cost - performance and high提货 volume [9]. - Inventory side: Domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, oil - mill soybean meal inventory is rising but lower than last year, and the number of days of feed - enterprise soybean meal inventory has slightly declined [9]. - Strategy: Due to cost support, the downside space of the futures market is limited, and it is recommended to go long on dips, with attention on Sino - US policy changes [9].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View - The supply - demand balance sheet of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is expected to be tight, which supports the CBOT US soybean futures. With the support of import costs, the downside space below the 01 contract is limited. In the short - term, the market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [8]. Summary by Related Content 1. Spot and Spread Data - **Spot Basis**: The 43% soybean meal spot basis varies by location. For example, in Dalian it's 96, in Tianjin it's 46 - 4, and in different regions it shows different values and changes. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong is 34 with a change of 25 [6]. - **Price Spreads**: The spot price spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 386 with a change of 5, and the futures price spread of the main contract is 541 with a change of - 1. The RM1 - 5 spread is 107, and the M1 - 5 spread is 240 [6][7]. - **Other Spreads**: The soybean - rapeseed meal price spread and relevant data are also presented, along with the soybean CNF premium - continuous month data and the relationship between the US dollar - RMB exchange rate and relevant profits [7]. 2. Supply Situation - **US Soybeans**: The ISDA August report raised the US soybean yield to 53.6 bushels per acre, but lowered the planting area in the 25/26 season by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is reduced to 290 million bushels. The good - excellent rate of US soybeans this week reached 69%, but due to less rainfall and low temperature in the producing areas, the good - excellent rate may decline slightly [7]. - **Domestic Supply**: The expected arrival of soybeans in China in September is over 10 million tons, and the inventory is in the accumulation cycle. In October, the inventory is expected to start decreasing, and the supply - demand gap in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policies [7][8]. 3. Demand Situation - **Livestock and Poultry**: The short - term high inventory of pigs and poultry supports the feed demand. However, policy guidance aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which will affect the long - term supply of pigs. Some regions use wheat to replace corn, reducing the demand for protein [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the提货 volume is at a high level. The downstream transactions of soybean meal this week are cautious [8]. 4. Inventory Situation - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean inventory is at a high level and is in the accumulation cycle [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal inventory is increasing, lower than the same period last year, and is expected to continue accumulating. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are increasing [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Grains and Oilseeds - Domestic two - meal decline space is limited, and it's advisable to wait for stabilization and go long at low levels in the 3000 - 3050 range. The soybean meal and rapeseed meal spread may widen further [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - Pig spot prices are stabilizing with minor fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the support around 13800 for the 01 contract [3]. Corn - Spot corn prices are weak, and the futures price has rebounded. In the medium - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is significant, and the futures valuation may move down towards the new - season cost [6]. Oils - Palm oil maintains a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength. For soybean oil, the industrial consumption in the US is uncertain, and the basis quote will be boosted after the factory inventory decreases [9]. Sugar - Raw sugar is under pressure from increased supply expectations, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain oscillating weakly [11]. Cotton - Short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and new - cotton prices will face pressure after listing [12]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to maintain a bearish trend [15]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Grains and Oilseeds - **Prices**: Soybean meal spot price in Jiangsu is 3040 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal spot price in Jiangsu dropped 2.34% to 2500 yuan/ton; soybean spot price in Harbin is 3980 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal increased 4.17% to 225; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal increased 36.36% to 75 [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The main contract basis increased 42.42% to - 190; the price of the 2511 contract dropped 1.13% to 13590 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in various regions showed minor fluctuations, with the sample - point daily slaughter volume increasing 0.32% to 142240 heads [3]. Corn - **Futures**: The price of the 2511 contract increased 0.97% to 2185; the 11 - 3 spread increased 40% to - 15 [6]. - **Spot**: The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton; the north - south trade profit decreased 52.63% [6]. Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8740 yuan/ton, down 1.14%; the basis decreased 13.73% to 204 [9]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 9470 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis decreased 4.35% to 46 [9]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 10020 yuan/ton, down 0.7%; the basis decreased 127.85% to 79 [9]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract dropped 0.32% to 5602 yuan/ton; the 1 - 9 spread increased 9.09% to - 10 [11]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning dropped 0.17% to 5910 yuan/ton; the import volume increased 160% to 130,000 tons [11]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract dropped 0.51% to 13690 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread decreased 20.63% to - 380 [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B dropped 0.06% to 15240 yuan/ton; the commercial inventory decreased 16.9% to 182.02 million tons [12]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract dropped 1.83% to 2843 yuan/500KG; the 9 - 10 spread decreased 10.13% to - 87 [14]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area dropped 0.81% to 3.26 yuan/jin; the breeding profit increased 20.84% to - 17.89 yuan/feather [14][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Cotton, Red dates, Live pigs (Cautious bullish) [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal (Large - range oscillation); Palm oil (Short - term consolidation) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean meal**: In a large - range oscillation due to the intertwined influence of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs. This week's inventory reduction and the decline in the good - quality rate of US soybeans are bullish factors, but there is a risk of an increase in the US soybean yield per unit in the August USDA report next week, making the market cautious about going long [1]. - **Rapeseed meal**: In a large - range oscillation. The global rapeseed production is recovering year - on - year, but there is a risk of a reduction in the yield per unit of Canadian rapeseed. The decline in rapeseed imports from August to October, the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price, while the substitution of soybean meal for rapeseed meal consumption and the improvement in Canadian rapeseed import profit are bearish factors [1]. - **Palm oil**: Short - term consolidation. The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption expectation of the palm oil market, but the possible inventory accumulation of Malaysian palm oil in July may suppress short - term prices. It is advisable to be cautious about chasing long positions and look for opportunities to go long after price stabilization [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish. The moisture conditions in the main US cotton - producing areas continue to deteriorate slightly, and the export improvement expectation is limited. In China, the increase in the actual sown area and yield per unit of new cotton boosts the guaranteed output. The rapid commercial de - stocking and the slowdown in downstream finished - product restocking provide short - term support. The downstream is gradually entering the stocking market, and the decline space before the new cotton is listed is expected to be limited [1]. - **Red dates**: Cautiously bullish. There are still significant differences in the market regarding the extent of the production reduction, and there is still a risk of over - hyped production reduction. It is advisable to be cautious about going long this week and pay attention to the previous high pressure level [1]. - **Live pigs**: Cautiously bullish. The previous second - fattening sales and the acceleration of the short - term slaughter rhythm have pushed down the price of live pigs, but the recovery of the price difference between standard and fat pigs still promotes some second - fattening speculation. The medium - and long - term production capacity remains high, and the gradual reduction of production capacity by leading enterprises is expected to boost the far - month contracts. It presents a situation of "weak reality, strong expectation" [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 823.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.20 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 655.59 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.00 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 104.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons [3]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main soybean meal contract was 3026 yuan/ton, a 0.10% increase from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3006.29 yuan/ton, a 0.27% decrease from the previous day [2]. - **Market situation**: The de - stocking this week and the decline in the good - quality rate of US soybeans are bullish, but there is a risk of an increase in the US soybean yield per unit in the August USDA report next week [1]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory was 11.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 2.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8 million tons; the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions across the country was 62.88 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.66 million tons [7]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main rapeseed meal contract was 2745 yuan/ton, a 0.77% increase from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2753.16 yuan/ton, a 1.75% increase from the previous day [5]. - **Market situation**: The decline in rapeseed imports from August to October, the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price, while the substitution of soybean meal for rapeseed meal consumption and the improvement in Canadian rapeseed import profit are bearish factors [1]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.22 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.33 million tons [9]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main palm oil contract was 8970 yuan/ton, a 1.04% decrease from the previous day; the national average price was 9040 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase from the previous day [8]. - **Market situation**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption expectation of the palm oil market, but the possible inventory accumulation of Malaysian palm oil in July may suppress short - term prices [1]. 3.4 Cotton - **Inventory**: The domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased to 215.71 million tons, 17.43 million tons lower than the same period [11]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract CF2509 was 13690 yuan/ton, a 0.15% decrease; the domestic spot price increased by 0.06% to 15196 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market situation**: The US cotton good - quality rate is stable and higher than the same period, but the non - drought rate in the US cotton area is decreasing. In China, the new cotton production is expected to increase, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is gradually improving [12][13]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10039 tons this week, a week - on - week decrease of 51 tons, higher than the same period [16]. - **Price**: The main red date contract CJ2601 increased by 1.71% to 10980 yuan/ton [16]. - **Market situation**: There are differences in the market regarding the production reduction amplitude, and the high - inventory pressure restricts the rebound height [17]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Inventory and出栏**: The national sample enterprise live pig inventory in June was 3763.32 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%; the出栏 volume was 1091.68 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.01% [18]. - **Price**: The main live pig contract Lh2511 increased by 0.68% to 14010 yuan/ton, and the domestic live pig spot price remained stable at 14340 yuan/ton [19]. - **Market situation**: The short - term出栏 increase and the second - fattening speculation co - exist. The medium - and long - term production capacity is high, and leading enterprises are gradually reducing production capacity [19][20].