Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal are all "oscillating" [1][3][5][7] Core Views - The steel market has inventory pressure, and steel prices will oscillate. The iron ore market has high supply and inventory pressure, and ore prices will likely oscillate. The coking coal and coke markets are pessimistic, with prices running weakly. The thermal coal market has limited supply recovery and high prices, with short - term prices oscillating strongly [1][3][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, steel futures prices oscillated weakly, and spot prices followed suit. National building materials trading volume was 84,500 tons, a decrease of 8.15% from the previous day. Rebar production increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand was better than expected. Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, inventory decreased, and consumption increased month - on - month [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials have supply pressure, but inventory reduction is significant, and apparent consumption is good. However, the consumption off - season is approaching, and consumption sustainability needs to be observed. The supply - demand pattern of strip steel has improved, but supply pressure remains, and inventory reduction pressure is still large. Short - term steel prices will oscillate, and future winter storage games and raw material support need to be observed [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures oscillated. Spot prices were generally weak and stable, and trading was dull. The cumulative trading volume of main ports in the country was 918,000 tons, an increase of 27.32% from the previous day. This week, the average daily hot metal output decreased slightly, port inventory decreased slightly, and the number of stranded ships increased [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore supply remains high, and inventory pressure persists. With steel mills' losses and production cuts, hot metal output has decreased month - on - month. Port inventory reduction and a decline in arrivals support prices, so the callback space for ore prices is limited, and they will likely oscillate within a range. Future hot metal output and downstream inventory changes need to be observed [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the prices of black - sector commodities generally fell, and the prices of coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. Imported Mongolian coal prices weakened due to the decline in futures prices, trading was cold, and trading volume further declined. This week, coking coal production continued to increase, downstream coking plants and ports reduced inventory significantly, coke production decreased slightly, and overall inventory increased slightly [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic mines are gradually resuming production, Mongolian coal customs clearance remains high, and seaborne coal imports have also increased. Short - term coking coal supply has recovered month - on - month, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with insufficient speculative demand. The market focus is on the value of warehouse receipts. For coke, production restrictions in some areas have ended, supply has improved, hot metal output has decreased slightly, speculative demand has weakened, and coke supply and demand are in a weak balance [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal and coke trading are both oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, coal prices have been slightly adjusted, and supply has tightened in some mines due to environmental protection and other factors, leading to a slight increase in prices. At present, coal prices are relatively high, and downstream buyers only purchase on demand, with speculative demand slowing down. At ports, inventory has accumulated due to navigation bans, market coal trading is sluggish, and downstream buyers are mainly waiting and watching. For imported coal, supply from Indonesia is low, and foreign mine quotes remain high due to existing profits [7] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Current supply recovery in the production area is limited, and downstream purchasing is more cautious. However, the consumption peak season has arrived, port inventory accumulation is lower than expected, and non - power demand downstream is strong. Short - term prices will oscillate strongly, and future overall consumption and inventory replenishment need to be observed [7]