Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report indicates that iron ore prices are fluctuating with a decline in hot metal production [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of iron ore futures I2605 was 759.0 yuan/ton, up 7.0 yuan/ton or 0.93% The position was 498,769 hands, a decrease of 26,804 hands [1] - Among imported iron ore, the price of Carajás fines (65%) was 888.0 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan/ton; PB fines (61.5%) was 757.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton; Jinbuba fines (61%) was 709.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton; Super Special fines (56.5%) was 643.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton Among domestic iron ore, the price of Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged at 910.0 yuan/ton and 828.0 yuan/ton respectively [1] - The basis of I2605 against Super Special fines decreased by 1.6 yuan/ton to 86.7 yuan/ton; the basis against Jinbuba fines decreased by 1.6 yuan/ton to 66.5 yuan/ton The spread of I2605 - I2609 increased by 3.0 yuan/ton to 23.5 yuan/ton, while the spread of I2609 - I2701 remained unchanged at 14.0 yuan/ton The spread of Carajás fines - PB fines decreased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 131.0 yuan/ton, while the spreads of PB fines - Jinbuba fines and PB fines - Super Special fines remained unchanged at 48.0 yuan/ton and 114.0 yuan/ton respectively [1] Macro and Industry News - The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms The GDP growth target is lowered from "around 5%" to "4.5% - 5.0%", and the scale of policy - based financial instruments is increased [1] - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel enterprises was 227.59 million tons, a decrease of 5.69 million tons compared with the previous period [2] - Five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real - estate policies, which came into effect on February 26, 2026 [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The report focuses on the iron ore market, stating that it is in a game between expectations and reality, with ore prices fluctuating[1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 754.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4.0 yuan/ton and a daily increase rate of 0.53%. The position of I2605 was 542,727 hands, with a decrease of 3,955 hands[1] - **Spot Price**: The prices of imported ores such as Carajás fines (65%), PB fines (61.5%), Jimbobara fines (61%), and Super Special fines (56.5%) all increased by 6.0 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The prices of domestic ores such as Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged[1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special fines increased by 2.5 yuan/ton to 92.3 yuan/ton, and the basis against Jimbobara fines increased by 2.5 yuan/ton to 68.9 yuan/ton. The spread of I2605 - I2609 increased by 1.5 yuan/ton to 21.0 yuan/ton, while the spread of I2609 - I2701 remained unchanged at 12.0 yuan/ton. The spreads between different ore types such as Carajás fines - PB fines remained unchanged[1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On February 25, 2026, five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to further optimize and adjust the real - estate policy, which will be implemented from February 26, 2026[1] - On February 25, it was reported that some steel enterprises in North China had received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the 2026 National Two Sessions. They are required to implement phased emission reduction control from March 4 to March 11, with a blast furnace load reduction of no less than 30% and to formulate a special emission reduction implementation plan[2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, indicating a moderately positive outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish)[2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline, with shipments from Australia and Brazil decreasing, while those from non - mainstream countries increasing. Near - end arrivals also decreased. Daily hot metal production increased slightly, and the steel mill profitability rate improved. Port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching the highest level in the same period of the past five years, and the inventory structure problem remained unsolved. Due to market sentiment fluctuations and accident disturbances, iron ore prices will fluctuate in the short term. Future focus should be on steel mill restocking and hot metal production rhythm [11][13][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: Global iron ore shipments were 29.298 million tons, a decrease of 2.511 million tons week - on - week. Shipments from Australia and Brazil were 22.466 million tons, a decrease of 3.598 million tons. Australian shipments were 16.88 million tons, down 2.436 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 13.897 million tons, a decrease of 2.624 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 5.586 million tons, a decrease of 1.162 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 28.977 million tons, a decrease of 1.173 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 26.597 million tons, a decrease of 2.607 million tons [13] - Demand: The daily average hot metal production was 2.281 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons week - on - week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.51%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points [13] - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 national ports was 174.9653 million tons, an increase of 2.0783 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.2052 million tons, a decrease of 1.45 million tons [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 122 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 4 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 2 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 4 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was - 19.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 3 yuan/ton [19][22] - Feed ratio and scrap steel: The pellet feed ratio was 14.7%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points. The lump ore feed ratio was 11.92%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points. The sinter feed ratio was 73.38%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points. The Tangshan scrap steel price was 2,165 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 10 yuan/ton. The Zhangjiagang scrap steel price was 2,110 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 0 yuan/ton [25] - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points week - on - week. The PB powder import profit was 18.82 yuan/wet ton [28] 3.3 Inventory - 45 - port imported iron ore inventory was 167.6653 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 2.1143 million tons. Pellet inventory was 4.0614 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.1514 million tons [35] - Iron concentrate powder inventory at ports was 15.4632 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.1661 million tons. Lump ore inventory at ports was 22.049 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.5077 million tons [38] - Australian ore port inventory was 75.8805 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 1.9884 million tons. Brazilian ore port inventory was 56.2871 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.7843 million tons [41] - The steel mill imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 93.8882 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 1.266 million tons [46] 3.4 Supply Side - Shipments: The volume of Australian ore shipped to China through 19 ports was 13.262 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 2.671 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 5.537 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 1.106 million tons [51] - Major miners: Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 4.286 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.799 million tons. BHP's shipments to China were 2.86 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.695 million tons. Vale's shipments were 3.879 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.017 million tons. FMG's shipments to China were 3.676 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.238 million tons [54][57] - Arrivals and imports: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.597 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.607 million tons. In December, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 21.9278 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9236 million tons [60] - Domestic production: The domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 60.09%, a week - on - week change of + 0.37 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 0.4695 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.028 million tons [66] 3.5 Demand Side - Production and utilization rate: The domestic daily average hot metal production was 2.281 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons week - on - week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.51%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points week - on - week [71] - Port clearance and consumption: The 45 - port iron ore daily average port clearance volume was 3.1073 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0916 million tons. The steel mill imported iron ore daily consumption was 2.819 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.0006 million tons [74] 3.6 Basis - As of January 23, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 37.34 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 4.49% [79]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. The demand for iron ore is in a weak pattern and continues to put pressure on prices. Overseas ore supply is positive, and the overall supply remains high. Due to the structural contradiction in the spot market and the support of black - variety arbitrage, iron ore prices are running at a high level. However, with weakening demand and high supply, the fundamentals are weak, and the upward driving force is limited. The iron ore price will maintain a high - level shock, and caution should be exercised regarding the shift of the trading logic to the real - world situation [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 15,431.42, with a week - on - week increase of 130.61 and a monthly increase of 221.30 compared to the end of last month. It's 112.04 higher than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 8,831.20, with a week - on - week decrease of 153.53 and a monthly decrease of 111.28 compared to the end of last month. It's 341.84 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] Supply - The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 domestic ports is 2,480.50, with a week - on - week decrease of 218.80 and a monthly decrease of 336.60 compared to the end of last month. It's 301.50 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] - The global iron ore shipping volume is 3,368.56, with a week - on - week increase of 45.41 and a monthly increase of 90.14 compared to the end of last month. It's 357.66 higher than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 229.20, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.10 and a monthly decrease of 5.48 compared to the end of last month. It's 6.60 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] - The average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports is 319.19, with a week - on - week increase of 0.74 and a monthly decrease of 12.39 compared to the end of last month. It's 7.79 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] - The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 283.27, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.80 and a monthly decrease of 6.16 compared to the end of last month. It's 9.34 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] - The weekly average of iron ore transactions at major ports is 99.15, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.39 and a monthly decrease of 4.57 compared to the end of last month. It's 10.83 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal are all "oscillating" [1][3][5][7] Core Views - The steel market has inventory pressure, and steel prices will oscillate. The iron ore market has high supply and inventory pressure, and ore prices will likely oscillate. The coking coal and coke markets are pessimistic, with prices running weakly. The thermal coal market has limited supply recovery and high prices, with short - term prices oscillating strongly [1][3][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, steel futures prices oscillated weakly, and spot prices followed suit. National building materials trading volume was 84,500 tons, a decrease of 8.15% from the previous day. Rebar production increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand was better than expected. Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, inventory decreased, and consumption increased month - on - month [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials have supply pressure, but inventory reduction is significant, and apparent consumption is good. However, the consumption off - season is approaching, and consumption sustainability needs to be observed. The supply - demand pattern of strip steel has improved, but supply pressure remains, and inventory reduction pressure is still large. Short - term steel prices will oscillate, and future winter storage games and raw material support need to be observed [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures oscillated. Spot prices were generally weak and stable, and trading was dull. The cumulative trading volume of main ports in the country was 918,000 tons, an increase of 27.32% from the previous day. This week, the average daily hot metal output decreased slightly, port inventory decreased slightly, and the number of stranded ships increased [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore supply remains high, and inventory pressure persists. With steel mills' losses and production cuts, hot metal output has decreased month - on - month. Port inventory reduction and a decline in arrivals support prices, so the callback space for ore prices is limited, and they will likely oscillate within a range. Future hot metal output and downstream inventory changes need to be observed [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the prices of black - sector commodities generally fell, and the prices of coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. Imported Mongolian coal prices weakened due to the decline in futures prices, trading was cold, and trading volume further declined. This week, coking coal production continued to increase, downstream coking plants and ports reduced inventory significantly, coke production decreased slightly, and overall inventory increased slightly [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic mines are gradually resuming production, Mongolian coal customs clearance remains high, and seaborne coal imports have also increased. Short - term coking coal supply has recovered month - on - month, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with insufficient speculative demand. The market focus is on the value of warehouse receipts. For coke, production restrictions in some areas have ended, supply has improved, hot metal output has decreased slightly, speculative demand has weakened, and coke supply and demand are in a weak balance [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal and coke trading are both oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, coal prices have been slightly adjusted, and supply has tightened in some mines due to environmental protection and other factors, leading to a slight increase in prices. At present, coal prices are relatively high, and downstream buyers only purchase on demand, with speculative demand slowing down. At ports, inventory has accumulated due to navigation bans, market coal trading is sluggish, and downstream buyers are mainly waiting and watching. For imported coal, supply from Indonesia is low, and foreign mine quotes remain high due to existing profits [7] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Current supply recovery in the production area is limited, and downstream purchasing is more cautious. However, the consumption peak season has arrived, port inventory accumulation is lower than expected, and non - power demand downstream is strong. Short - term prices will oscillate strongly, and future overall consumption and inventory replenishment need to be observed [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend under the game of long and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2]. - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are volatile, and the intraday trend is weakly volatile. It is advisable to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term trend is volatile, and the intraday trend is weakly volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the commodity sentiment is warm and the ore price is at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - There are changes in both the supply and demand sides of iron ore. During the holiday, steel mill production was weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore continued to decline but remained at a relatively high level. Considering the increasing contradictions in the steel market, the positive effects are weakening [2]. - During the holiday, the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports was high. With high ore prices, overseas ore shipments were active, and the domestic ore supply will resume after the holiday, increasing the supply pressure [2]. - After the holiday, the commodity sentiment is warm, and the demand has certain resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the ore supply remains at a high level, the fundamental outlook is weakening, and the upward driving force is not strong [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.98%. Although the strong raw materials boosted the steel market, the supply continued to rise while the demand was weak and stable. The fundamentals remained seasonally weak, and the sustainability of the upward drive was questionable. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated upward with a daily increase of 0.94%. The strong raw materials supported the steel price to rise, but the supply was high and stable while the demand weakened. The fundamental contradictions were accumulating. The subsequent trend will continue to be under pressure and oscillate at a low level, and the risk of tariffs after the "exemption period" should be guarded against [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore was strong with a daily increase of 1.99%. The demand was resilient and the market sentiment improved, but the supply pressure remained and the demand growth space was limited. The fundamentals were difficult to improve continuously, and the upward drive was not strong. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Dynamics - From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 272.043 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. Among them, the profit of state-owned holding enterprises decreased by 7.4%, that of joint-stock enterprises decreased by 1.5%, that of foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises increased by 0.3%, and that of private enterprises increased by 3.4% [6]. - In May 2025, China issued 49.19 billion yuan of new bonds, including 4.87 billion yuan of general bonds and 44.32 billion yuan of special bonds. The total issuance of local government bonds was 77.95 billion yuan. From January to May, the total issuance of local government bonds was 431.48 billion yuan [7]. - On June 26, 2025, South Africa decided to impose a temporary safeguard measure tax of 52.34% on imported steel flat-rolled products from June 27 for 200 days [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,050 yuan, 3,160 yuan and 3,198 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,190 yuan, 3,110 yuan and 3,227 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,910 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,100 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 140 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 950 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 708 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 692 yuan, the Australian and Brazilian freight rates were 7.43 yuan and 21.86 yuan respectively, the SGX swap price was 94.45 yuan, and the Platts index was 93.30 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the active rebar contract was 2,995 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.98%, a trading volume of 1,500,826 lots and an open interest of 2,142,813 lots [13]. - The closing price of the active hot-rolled coil contract was 3,121 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.94%, a trading volume of 613,616 lots and an open interest of 1,524,710 lots [13]. - The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 716.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.99%, a trading volume of 485,658 lots and an open interest of 679,900 lots [13]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel and iron ore inventories, including rebar inventory, hot-rolled coil inventory, national 45-port iron ore inventory, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [15][22]. - It also includes charts on steel mill production, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29]. Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply pressure is increasing as the weekly output increased by 5.66 tons and reached a relatively high level this year. The demand is weak and stable, with the weekly apparent demand increasing slightly by 0.72 tons and the high-frequency transactions remaining low. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate [38]. - For hot-rolled coil, the supply pressure is still large as the weekly output increased by 1.79 tons and remained at a high level this year. The demand is weakening, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 4.44 tons. The subsequent trend will continue to be under pressure and oscillate at a low level, and the tariff risk after the "exemption period" should be guarded against [38]. - For iron ore, the demand is resilient as the terminal consumption continues to rise, but the supply pressure remains as the port arrivals and miner shipments have both reached high levels this year. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2509 contract is expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term and medium - term, and a slightly stronger volatile trend intraday. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA10 line. The core logic is that demand is performing well and the ore price is oscillating at a low level [1]. - With the steel mills' active production during the peak season, the terminal consumption of ore has been continuously rising. Coupled with the pre - holiday restocking by steel mills, the ore demand is strong, which supports the ore price. However, the ore inventory has been continuously accumulating under high demand, indicating that the fundamentals have not substantially improved. With the expected increase in supply, the concern of medium - term oversupply remains. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price is expected to continue the low - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term trend is volatile, and the intraday trend is slightly stronger volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA10 line, and the core logic is good demand and low - level oscillation of the ore price [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The strong demand from steel mills' production and restocking supports the ore price. But the continuous accumulation of ore inventory and the expected increase in supply lead to the concern of medium - term oversupply. The ore price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the performance of finished steel products should be monitored [2].