Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.98%. Although the strong raw materials boosted the steel market, the supply continued to rise while the demand was weak and stable. The fundamentals remained seasonally weak, and the sustainability of the upward drive was questionable. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated upward with a daily increase of 0.94%. The strong raw materials supported the steel price to rise, but the supply was high and stable while the demand weakened. The fundamental contradictions were accumulating. The subsequent trend will continue to be under pressure and oscillate at a low level, and the risk of tariffs after the "exemption period" should be guarded against [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore was strong with a daily increase of 1.99%. The demand was resilient and the market sentiment improved, but the supply pressure remained and the demand growth space was limited. The fundamentals were difficult to improve continuously, and the upward drive was not strong. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Dynamics - From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 272.043 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. Among them, the profit of state-owned holding enterprises decreased by 7.4%, that of joint-stock enterprises decreased by 1.5%, that of foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises increased by 0.3%, and that of private enterprises increased by 3.4% [6]. - In May 2025, China issued 49.19 billion yuan of new bonds, including 4.87 billion yuan of general bonds and 44.32 billion yuan of special bonds. The total issuance of local government bonds was 77.95 billion yuan. From January to May, the total issuance of local government bonds was 431.48 billion yuan [7]. - On June 26, 2025, South Africa decided to impose a temporary safeguard measure tax of 52.34% on imported steel flat-rolled products from June 27 for 200 days [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,050 yuan, 3,160 yuan and 3,198 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,190 yuan, 3,110 yuan and 3,227 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,910 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,100 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 140 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 950 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 708 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 692 yuan, the Australian and Brazilian freight rates were 7.43 yuan and 21.86 yuan respectively, the SGX swap price was 94.45 yuan, and the Platts index was 93.30 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the active rebar contract was 2,995 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.98%, a trading volume of 1,500,826 lots and an open interest of 2,142,813 lots [13]. - The closing price of the active hot-rolled coil contract was 3,121 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.94%, a trading volume of 613,616 lots and an open interest of 1,524,710 lots [13]. - The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 716.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.99%, a trading volume of 485,658 lots and an open interest of 679,900 lots [13]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel and iron ore inventories, including rebar inventory, hot-rolled coil inventory, national 45-port iron ore inventory, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [15][22]. - It also includes charts on steel mill production, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29]. Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply pressure is increasing as the weekly output increased by 5.66 tons and reached a relatively high level this year. The demand is weak and stable, with the weekly apparent demand increasing slightly by 0.72 tons and the high-frequency transactions remaining low. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate [38]. - For hot-rolled coil, the supply pressure is still large as the weekly output increased by 1.79 tons and remained at a high level this year. The demand is weakening, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 4.44 tons. The subsequent trend will continue to be under pressure and oscillate at a low level, and the tariff risk after the "exemption period" should be guarded against [38]. - For iron ore, the demand is resilient as the terminal consumption continues to rise, but the supply pressure remains as the port arrivals and miner shipments have both reached high levels this year. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2509 contract is expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term and medium - term, and a slightly stronger volatile trend intraday. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA10 line. The core logic is that demand is performing well and the ore price is oscillating at a low level [1]. - With the steel mills' active production during the peak season, the terminal consumption of ore has been continuously rising. Coupled with the pre - holiday restocking by steel mills, the ore demand is strong, which supports the ore price. However, the ore inventory has been continuously accumulating under high demand, indicating that the fundamentals have not substantially improved. With the expected increase in supply, the concern of medium - term oversupply remains. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price is expected to continue the low - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term trend is volatile, and the intraday trend is slightly stronger volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA10 line, and the core logic is good demand and low - level oscillation of the ore price [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The strong demand from steel mills' production and restocking supports the ore price. But the continuous accumulation of ore inventory and the expected increase in supply lead to the concern of medium - term oversupply. The ore price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the performance of finished steel products should be monitored [2].