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王瑞平:预计2030年全球汽车市场混动、电动、燃油三分天下
Zhong Guo Qi Che Bao Wang· 2025-06-05 02:57
Core Insights - The fifth International Forum on Automotive Power Systems was held in Shanghai, focusing on the diverse development of global automotive power systems, with a particular emphasis on hybrid technology as a foundation for the growth of new energy vehicles in China and worldwide [1][3]. Market Development - Global automotive sales are projected to exceed 90 million units in 2024, marking a 1.8% year-on-year increase, with the Chinese market accounting for over one-third of this total [3]. - In Q1 of this year, pure electric vehicle sales represented 14.5% of the global market, while hybrid vehicles (including HEV, PHEV, and REV) accounted for 16%, surpassing pure electric vehicles [3]. Hybrid Technology Evolution - The development of hybrid technology has progressed through several phases over the past 30 years, from slow initial growth to a recent explosive phase, particularly in China with various hybrid systems [4]. - The current trend in hybrid technology is moving towards dual motors, large batteries, and the capability to use both fuel and electricity, with PHEV and REV systems experiencing the fastest growth [4]. Achievements in Electrification - The main achievements in the electrification transition are reflected in the "new four modernizations": efficiency, electrification, intelligence, and diversification of energy sources [5]. - Chinese hybrid engines have seen significant improvements in thermal efficiency, rising from approximately 39% five years ago to over 46% today [5]. Industry Challenges - Key challenges include the need for further efficiency improvements in hybrid engines, advancements in electric motor technology, and the development of alternative fuels [6]. - Infrastructure development is critical, as the lack of charging facilities poses a significant challenge to the rapid growth of new energy vehicles globally [6]. - Cost pressures are evident, with expected price reductions in new energy vehicles ranging from 5% to 15% in 2024, necessitating a focus on technology and quality to meet consumer demands [6]. Globalization and Future Outlook - The international environment presents complex challenges for Chinese automotive exports, highlighting the need for closer collaboration with global partners [7]. - Future developments in hybrid technology are expected to be positively influenced by carbon emission management transitioning from dual credits to carbon credits [7]. - By 2030, the electrification penetration rate in the Chinese market is anticipated to reach around 75%, with a balanced distribution among hybrid and pure electric vehicles [7][8]. Regional Market Trends - Different global markets are expected to follow distinct development paths: China will focus on plug-in, range-extended, and electric vehicles; Europe will trend towards electric, plug-in, hybrid, and synthetic fuels; while the U.S. will prioritize hybrid, electric, plug-in, and fuel vehicles [8].