Group 1: Tax Revenue Insights - Personal income tax (PIT) increased by 8% year-on-year in the first half of the year, despite overall tax revenue declining by 1.2%[3] - Value-added tax (VAT) grew by 2.8%, while corporate income tax (CIT) saw a decline of 1.9%[7] - Non-tax revenue turned negative, with a 3.7% year-on-year decrease in June, primarily due to reduced contributions from state-owned assets and improved business environment leading to lower fees and penalties[28] Group 2: Fiscal Expenditure and Investment Trends - General fiscal expenditure rose by 17.6% year-on-year in June, significantly up from 5.3% for infrastructure investment, which fell by 3.9% compared to the previous month[4] - The acceleration in fiscal spending is largely attributed to a one-time injection of special bonds into commercial banks, with actual growth being slower when excluding this factor[34] - Special bonds are increasingly being used for debt repayment, with 46.7% of newly issued bonds in July allocated for this purpose, compared to only 41.7% for project construction[51] Group 3: Future Fiscal Outlook - The fiscal revenue and expenditure are expected to face pressure in the second half, with projected year-on-year growth rates of -4.5% for revenue and 1.5% for expenditure[5] - The anticipated budget gap for the year is estimated at 516.6 billion yuan for revenue and 547.2 billion yuan for expenditure, with limited necessity for additional deficits[5] - The government plans to utilize fiscal reserves, including the budget stabilization fund and profits from central financial enterprises, to cover a projected 120 billion yuan shortfall due to new subsidies[69]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨环保 [Table_Title] 解决拖欠企业账款成专项债新用途，2025 年置 换隐债 2 万亿元额度已落地 87% 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 地方政府新增专项债发行使用进度快于往年，且清欠成专项债新用途，湖南/云南/广西明确部分 新增债务资金用于解决地方政府拖欠企业账款。截至 2025/6/21，2025 年置换隐债 2 万亿元额 度已落地 87%。环保若干子行业 G 端政府欠款较重，本轮"化债+清欠"有望受益，2025 年衔 接更积极的财政政策，预期对 To G 类企业形成实质性利好，形成价值与弹性两个投资逻辑。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 徐科 任楠 贾少波 李博文 盛意 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490518070001 SAC：S0490520070003 SAC：S0490524080004 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BUZ393 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 解决拖欠企业账款成专项债新用途， 2] 2025 年置 换 ...