Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the fiscal policy for 2025 will be "more proactive," leading to significant increases in both narrow and broad fiscal deficits, with narrow deficit expected to rise by 39% and broad deficit by 27% [1][13][14] - The issuance of government bonds will be accelerated, with net supply expected to increase by 128% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while broad fiscal expenditure is projected to show a "U"-shaped trend in 2024 and a "front high and back low" trend in 2025 [1][14] - The structure of fiscal revenue is improving, with a target growth rate for non-tax revenue set at -14.2%, indicating a reduced reliance on non-tax income [2][15][16] Group 2 - The expansion of debt resolution measures and diversification of debt resolution methods are highlighted, including the issuance of special bonds and policies targeting corporate arrears and PPP projects [2][16][17] - The expected slowdown in infrastructure investment growth in the second half of 2025 is attributed to several factors, including the completion of prior funding projects and the diversion of funds to debt resolution [3][18][19] - For 2026, the central economic work conference emphasizes the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, with expectations for a slight increase in fiscal strength compared to 2025 [4][20][21] Group 3 - The anticipated fiscal revenue growth for 2026 is projected to rebound to 3%-5%, driven by price increases and tax policy adjustments [5][26][27] - The introduction of new policy financial tools is expected to significantly impact fixed asset investment, with an estimated investment scale of 1.5-2 trillion yuan in 2026 [6][28][29] - The report indicates a structural shift in consumption patterns, with a focus on new types of consumption and service consumption, as traditional durable goods consumption is expected to slow down [8][32][33] Group 4 - The report discusses the expansion of debt resolution to include non-hidden debts, with measures to clear local government arrears to enterprises [9][34][35] - The importance of improving the local tax system is highlighted, with potential reforms in consumption tax expected to accelerate [10][36][37] - The overall impact on the asset side suggests that continued fiscal strength and proactive measures will support nominal growth and micro-activity in 2026 [11][37]

广 发证券资 深宏观分析师 吴棋滢 wuqiying@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 2025年财政政策基调是"更加积极的财政政策"，因此狭广义财政赤字均大幅提升，狭义赤字规模增加39%；广义赤字规模增加27%。这一则带动广义赤字率 显著提高；二则政府债净供给创近年新高；三则对2025年经济活动形成有力支持。总量扩大之外，2025年发债节奏显著前倾，带动上半年政府债净供给同比 128%，下半年同比转增为降；受此影响，上半年广义支出累计同比8.9%，1-11月累计同比回落至4.5%。广义财政支出趋势于2024年呈"U"型变化，2025年呈"前高 后低"走势，与这两年的经济走势、权益资产走势基本同步。 第二， 2025年财政领域的亮点之一是财政收入结构有所改善，年初预算草案中非税收入的目标增速为-14.2%，反映了财政降低对非税收入依赖度的决心。1-11月 非税收入累计同比-3.7%，为近年来相对低点，非税收入占比也较去年有所回落；其中1-9月罚没收入累计同比-7%，较去年下行22个百分点。而税收收入则在下半 年表现较好，主要源于"两新"、金属等活跃行业的带动及税收政策的调整。 第三， 2 ...

Group 1: Tax Revenue Insights - Personal income tax (PIT) increased by 8% year-on-year in the first half of the year, despite overall tax revenue declining by 1.2%[3] - Value-added tax (VAT) grew by 2.8%, while corporate income tax (CIT) saw a decline of 1.9%[7] - Non-tax revenue turned negative, with a 3.7% year-on-year decrease in June, primarily due to reduced contributions from state-owned assets and improved business environment leading to lower fees and penalties[28] Group 2: Fiscal Expenditure and Investment Trends - General fiscal expenditure rose by 17.6% year-on-year in June, significantly up from 5.3% for infrastructure investment, which fell by 3.9% compared to the previous month[4] - The acceleration in fiscal spending is largely attributed to a one-time injection of special bonds into commercial banks, with actual growth being slower when excluding this factor[34] - Special bonds are increasingly being used for debt repayment, with 46.7% of newly issued bonds in July allocated for this purpose, compared to only 41.7% for project construction[51] Group 3: Future Fiscal Outlook - The fiscal revenue and expenditure are expected to face pressure in the second half, with projected year-on-year growth rates of -4.5% for revenue and 1.5% for expenditure[5] - The anticipated budget gap for the year is estimated at 516.6 billion yuan for revenue and 547.2 billion yuan for expenditure, with limited necessity for additional deficits[5] - The government plans to utilize fiscal reserves, including the budget stabilization fund and profits from central financial enterprises, to cover a projected 120 billion yuan shortfall due to new subsidies[69]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The issuance of special bonds by local governments is progressing faster than in previous years, with debt clearance becoming a new use for these bonds. As of June 21, 2025, 87% of the 2 trillion yuan quota for replacing hidden debts has been implemented [2][35] - The environmental sector, particularly government-related debts, is expected to benefit from the current "debt replacement + debt clearance" initiative, leading to substantial advantages for To G enterprises [2][35] Summary by Sections New Special Bonds - Local governments have issued 1.69 trillion yuan in new special bonds as of June 21, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.9%. The issuance pace has accelerated [6][17] - The share of environmental special bonds has decreased to approximately 0.4% due to improved waste treatment rates and the completion of capital expenditures [6][18] - Specific regions like Hunan, Yunnan, and Guangxi have allocated part of the new debt to settle government debts owed to enterprises, with Yunnan specifying 356 billion yuan for this purpose [6][24] Special Refinance Bonds - From January to June 2025, the government issued 1.74 trillion yuan in special refinance bonds, all aimed at replacing hidden debts. The total issuance for 2025 is expected to reach 2 trillion yuan, with 86.8% already completed [7][32] - Regions with significant issuance include Jiangsu (251.1 billion yuan), Shandong (106 billion yuan), and Sichuan (98.4 billion yuan), indicating a proactive approach to resolving hidden debt issues [7][33] Investment Logic - The "debt replacement + debt clearance" strategy is expected to provide substantial benefits to companies with government receivables, aiding in the recovery of credit impairment losses and stimulating new demand [9][34] - Two investment strategies are recommended: 1. Value side: Focus on sectors with large receivables and low risk, such as waste incineration and water operations [9][38] 2. Elasticity side: Target leading companies in water, waste incineration, and environmental services with low price-to-book ratios and high government receivables [9][38]