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化工品价格处于历史低位,基础化工盈利周期性触底(附概念股)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-29 01:01
Group 1 - The national industrial product PPI, production material PPI, and chemical industry PPI are expected to show negative year-on-year growth for 38 consecutive months by November 2025, marking the second longest period of negative growth in history after the 2012-2016 cycle [1] - As of December 2025, among 111 tracked chemical products, 30 products are in the lowest 10% price percentile, and 70 products are in the lowest 30% price percentile, indicating significant price pressure in the chemical sector [1] - Recent price increases have been observed in the chemical market, with epoxy propylene prices rising by 7.9% week-on-week and organic silicon intermediates also experiencing price increases [1] Group 2 - The bulk chemical market is at a dual inflection point of capacity and inventory cycles, with expectations of entering an upturn as domestic and international demand recovers by 2026 [2] - The extreme winter weather in the U.S. has disrupted natural gas and electricity supplies, affecting chemical production in key areas like Texas, which may impact global supply stability for bulk chemicals [2] - The potential decline in overseas supply could enhance domestic chemical production rates and improve market conditions, particularly for refining, ethylene, acetic acid, MDI, and TDI [2] Group 3 - Relevant Hong Kong-listed companies in the chemical sector include Sinopec (00386), Sinopec Oilfield Service (01033), Sinopec Engineering (02386), Shanghai Petrochemical (00338), Sinopec Kantons (00934), China Sanjiang Chemical (02198), and Wuhan Organic (02881) [3]