Xml [Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2026 年 2 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] "沃什预期"与美元潮落：全球股市 定价锚的切换与重构 ——港股&海外周聚焦（2 月第 1 期） [ 报告摘要： [分析师： Table_Author]刘晨明 SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 SFC CE No. BVH021 010-59136616 liuchenming@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈振威 SAC 执证号：S0260524090002 021-38003550 chenzhenwei@gf.com.cn 请注意，陈振威并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1/29 972918116公共联系人2026-02-01 18:23:01 ⚫ 新任美联储主席 Kevin Warsh 的确定，其经济学家时期，主张"降息与 缩表并行"。短期内有望支撑美元走强，并推动美债收益率曲线陡峭化， 对贵金属价格构成一定压力。从中长期看，美国债务结构性问题并未化 解，Warsh 的政策更多可 ...

1月有色金属板块涨幅创10年新高 1月有色涨幅创十年新高，极端行情终现"情绪释放" 商品价格大涨推动下，开年以来，A股有色金属行业成为最闪耀的板块。数据显示，上周五（1月30 日）暴跌之前，有色金属板块个股1月平均涨幅39.9%，远超全A个股平均涨幅8.18%。有16只个股的月 涨幅超过50%，其中，湖南白银（002716.SZ）单月8次涨停，累计涨超200%，白银有色 （601212.SH）、盛达资源（000603.SZ）也在1月股价翻倍，兴业银锡（000426.SZ）、西部黄金 （601069.SH）等个股涨幅超80%。 行业层面来看，截至1月30日，申万有色金属1月上涨22.59%（区间最大涨幅30%以上），显著超过第二 名的传媒（17.94%）、第三名的石油石化（16.3%）。 今年1月的有色金属行情有多么极致？记者梳理对比2016~2025年1月行业涨幅数据，多在5%~13%之 间，近十年A股1月涨幅最高纪录也属于2023年的有色金属，涨幅14.67%，其次是2018年地产行业的 13.62%和2020年电子行业的13.54%。 1月，A股市场以有色金属为代表的分化表现收尾，申万有色金属行业以22. ...

本周化工市场综述 本周市场有所震荡，其中申万化工指数下跌 0.86%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.94%。标的方面，本周涨价品种表现强势。 行业变化变化方面，基础化工行业，本周多产品涨价，包括染料、对硝基氯化苯，近期的变化在于出口退税的取 消，该事件加速了相关产品的抢出口，往后看，可能会有更多的品种涨价。AI 行业，行业强劲需求拉动相关产业链 持续向上，产业链不同环节均有所印证，设备环节，阿斯麦四季度业绩炸裂，存储需求强劲推动订单翻倍、上调 2026 年增长指引，发电环节，GE Vernova Q4 营收超预期，目前积压订单规模已达到 1500 亿美元的历史高位，存储 环节，SK 海力士 Q4 营业利润同比增长逾一倍，为史上最强业绩，希捷科技电话会反馈 2026 年产能已全部分配，并 开始与客户讨论 2027 年订单安排，芯片环节，英特尔电话会反馈 CPU 需求激增却有单无货。国内方面，互联网巨头 有发力之势，比如：字节跳动、阿里巴巴将于春节前后推出新的人工智能模型，阿里加码 AI 与云计算，未来三年投 资或从 3800 亿上调至 4800 亿元；AI 端侧方面，豆包手机卷土重来，预计 Q2 中晚期发布，苹果 ...

Group 1 - The "Walsh trade" is impacting risk preferences, with a notable focus on the potential reversal of the "weak dollar" trade, which could significantly affect global asset allocation and market styles [11][12] - The North Exchange 50 index experienced a decline of 3.59%, while daily trading volume saw a slight increase [11][17] - Key sectors that performed well this week include space photovoltaic, seed industry, non-ferrous metals, and optical communication, with notable stock performances from companies like Liancheng CNC and Gongbika [11][12] Group 2 - New stock issuances have accelerated, with five new stocks launched in January 2026, and over 120 companies releasing performance forecasts [13][27] - As of January 30, 2026, 123 companies on the North Exchange have issued performance forecasts, with a median net profit forecast exceeding 80 million yuan [13] - The report suggests that the North Exchange needs to expand its number of companies and improve the quality of new stock issuances in 2026 [13] Group 3 - The North Exchange's PE (TTM) average is 83.89 times, with a median of 41.26 times, indicating a decline in valuation metrics [23][24] - The trading volume for the North Exchange reached 5.961 billion shares, with a trading value of 143.655 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 9.27% and 8.82% respectively [26][29] - The report highlights the performance of individual stocks, with 43 stocks rising and 249 falling, resulting in a rise-to-fall ratio of 0.17 [36]

②信达证券：短期调整后2月仍积极，增量资金有望持续入场 信达证券研报分析称，市场短期震荡源于换手率冲高后的自然消化与有色金属成交占比达五年高位，但 春季行情逻辑未被破坏。2月为春季行情胜率最高月份，增量资金有望持续入场。险资增配、定存集中 到期重配、公募新发回暖、私募补仓及外资回流等多重资金面利好叠加，叠加1月信贷与通胀数据季节 性高点支撑经济预期，市场流动性环境仍偏宽松，具备继续上行基础。 风格上，小盘成长占优，高弹性主题与中期产业逻辑并重。2月通常为重主题、轻行业阶段，AI应用、 商业航天、机器人等高弹性成长方向在情绪休整后仍具催化空间；同时，半导体国产化、资源品价格弹 性、电力设备出海、化工建材通胀受益等中期产业逻辑清晰的方向，经估值消化后持续性更强，构成配 置主线。 ③银河证券：节前板块轮动向上或是主基调 银河证券研报认为，A股市场板块轮动速度加快，周内半导体、白酒、地产等板块阶段性走高，但行情 持续性仍显不足。经历近期持续上涨行情后，受国际贵金属价格高位回落影响，周五有色金属板块大幅 回调。沃什被提名美联储主席，外部市场受到显著冲击。但A股流动性支撑延续，临近春节长假，市场 交投活跃度依然处于较高水 ...

2026 年 2 月 1 日 春季行情有望延续 投 资 2026 年 2 月份投资策略报告 投资要点： S0340523110001 电话：0769-22119276 邮箱：zenghao@dgzq.com.cn | 邮箱：zenghao@dgzq.com.cn 上证指数 4117.95 深证成指 14205.89 | 涨跌幅 3.76% 5.03% 证 券 研 究 | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | | 沪深 300 4706.34 | 1.65% | | 创业板指 3346.36 | 4.47% | | 北证 50 1531.55 | 6.33% | | 科创 50 1509.40 | 12.29% | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 上证指数月线走势 | 报 | | 告 | | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，Wind | | 上证指数月线走势 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 月度策略/A 股市场 分析师：费小平 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，Wind SAC 执业证 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market started the year positively with all major indices showing gains, leading to a significant increase in market activity and a total market capitalization surge of over 6 trillion yuan in January [1][3] - As of January 30, the three major indices, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, recorded monthly increases of 3.76%, 5.03%, and 4.47% respectively, indicating a robust upward trend [3] Market Capitalization - By the end of January, the total market capitalization of A-shares reached 125.21 trillion yuan, reflecting a substantial increase of 6.3 trillion yuan compared to the end of the previous year, showcasing a significant recovery in market confidence and increased capital activity [3] Sector Performance - In January, a clear structural market trend emerged, with most of the 31 sectors in the Shenwan classification showing gains. The metals sector led with a monthly increase of 22.59%, followed by media and oil & petrochemicals with increases of 17.94% and 16.31% respectively [3] - Other sectors such as construction materials, basic chemicals, and electronics also saw gains exceeding 10%, demonstrating strong upward momentum [3] Analyst Insights - Multiple brokerages have expressed optimism regarding the continuation of the spring market rally. For instance,招商证券 highlighted the strong performance of resource prices and TMT sectors driven by AI trends, suggesting a focus on cyclical and technology sectors for February [4] -国信证券 noted that the current market liquidity remains relatively abundant, and despite significant net redemptions in broad-based ETFs, there is still active subscription in sector and thematic ETFs, indicating ongoing investor interest [4] -光大证券 also anticipates further positive developments in both policy and fundamentals, recommending a focus on growth sectors such as humanoid robots, AI, gaming, and film during the upcoming spring market [5]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market is currently in a high position of the first phase of an upward trend, requiring a longer period of adjustment to digest the insufficient long-term cost-performance ratio after reaching historical valuation highs [4][7][8] - The "steady and far-reaching" policy is expected to accelerate the transition of the market from the current strong momentum phase to a new stage characterized by style switching and profit expansion, followed by a period of consolidation [4][8][25] - The report emphasizes four characteristics of the structural market at high valuation levels: 1) Difficulty in raising valuations, 2) Stricter conditions for upward breakthroughs, 3) High expectations for "perfect performance verification," and 4) Increased sensitivity to negative liquidity shocks [25][26] Group 2 - The mid-term judgment remains unchanged, suggesting that after the spring market ends, there will likely be a consolidation phase before a new upward stage begins, driven by clearer industrial trends and improved performance digestion [26][29] - The report highlights that the strong structural market of 2025 is characterized by cyclical Alpha and AI computing power leading the trend, with opportunities still present in cyclical Alpha investments and advanced manufacturing [26][29] - The report suggests that short-term effects of the "steady and far-reaching" policy may lead to a recovery of previously suppressed heavyweight stocks, with a focus on opportunities in overseas computing leaders and non-bank financial sectors [29]

一众市场更是迎来开年"大爆发"：委内瑞拉IBC指数以61%的惊人涨幅登顶全球，亚太市场同样火力全开，韩国综合指 数大涨23.97%、台湾加权指数涨10.7%、日经225指数涨5.93%，均录得亮眼涨幅。 与此同时，以希腊ASE综合指数、智利综指、以色列TA35指数为代表的部分中小市场也表现不俗，月度涨幅均超 9%。 2026年开年，全球市场走向显著分化，结构性行情贯穿一月始终。 全球股指表现迥异，A股、港股联袂震荡上行，上证指数累计涨超3%，恒生指数涨幅更达6%以上。美股刷新历史新高 后，月末陷入高位盘整，但三大指数月度涨幅仍均超1%。 而在股市分化加剧的背景下，贵金属无疑是开年全球市场的"顶流资产"：黄金、白银价格一路强势走高，多次刷新历 史纪录。 A股整体稳步上升 1月份，A股市场整体呈现稳步上行态势。截至月末，上证指数累计上涨3.76%，创业板指累计上涨4.47%，深证指数累 计上涨5.03%。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | 月初至今涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 399006 | 创业板指 | (0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of small-step mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the capital market reflects a shift towards gradual, precise acquisitions to strengthen supply chains and facilitate transformation and upgrading in various industries [1][2]. Group 1: Company Actions - Sichuan Dongcai Technology Group Co., Ltd. announced the acquisition of minority shareholder equity in its subsidiary Shandong Aiment, following a recent announcement to transfer its 31.4265% stake in Henan Huajia to Shengye Electric Co., Ltd. [1] - In January 2023, 15 A-share listed companies initiated multiple M&A plans, showcasing a trend towards frequent, smaller-scale acquisitions to enhance industry integration [1]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The small-step M&A model has become a significant force in capital market resource integration, particularly among high-tech enterprises, which accounted for 73.33% of the companies involved in M&A activities this year [3]. - High-tech companies favor small-step M&A due to the fast-paced technological iteration, high R&D investment, and strong operational uncertainties in their sectors [3]. Group 3: Factors Driving the Trend - The rise of small-step M&A is driven by three main factors: supportive policies, industry demand for integration, and strategic adjustments by companies to mitigate risks associated with large-scale acquisitions [5][6]. - Recent regulatory changes by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and stock exchanges have facilitated small-step M&A by streamlining approval processes and reducing institutional barriers [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future of industry M&A is expected to evolve in three directions: "chain master" companies partnering with private equity to establish M&A funds, traditional industry leaders combining with hard-tech targets, and an increase in cross-border "embedded acquisitions" focusing on strategic stakes and technology cooperation [7].