每日经济新闻 中信证券分析称，12月份市场面临美联储降息与否、中央经济工作会议部署等变量，考虑到市场增量资 金主要以绝对收益导向资金为主，A股/港股可能出现"急跌慢涨"。从配置角度看，资源/传统制造业定 价权的重估、企业出海仍是核心增配方向，建议关注化工、电新等方向。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.4%，石油石化行业占比为32.7%，有望充分受益于反内卷、调结构和 淘汰落后产能等政策。 12月1日，A股三大股指高开，沪指涨0.14％，深成指涨0.42％，创业板涨0.26％。中证石化产业指数震 荡上行，现涨约1.4%，成分股和邦生物涨停，藏格矿业、亚钾国际、三棵树等跟涨。相关ETF方面， 石化ETF（159731）近6天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"1882.16万元，资金布局特征明显。 ...

证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至11月28日，北交所股票中，融资余额居前的为锦波生物、曙光数创、 贝特瑞，最新融资余额分别为4.12亿元、3.42亿元、3.09亿元，从最新融资余额占流通市值比例看，算 术平均值为1.38%，最新融资余额占流通市值比例居前的有晨光电缆、奥迪威、海达尔等，占比分别为 5.04%、4.41%、4.21%。 北交所股票中，11月28日共有159只股获融资净买入，净买入金额在百万元以上的有23只，海希通讯融 资净买入额居首，当日净买入2178.73万元，其次是纳科诺尔、星图测控，融资净买入金额分别为 1258.30万元、1014.09万元，融资净买入金额居前的还有安达科技、利通科技、朱老六等。融资净卖出 金额居前的股票为视声智能、灵鸽科技、奥迪威等，融资净卖出金额分别为504.91万元、444.15万元、 311.66万元。 截至11月28日，北交所融资融券余额合计75.27亿元，较前一交易日增加3878.76万元，其中，融资余额 75.27亿元，较前一交易日增加3884.00万元，为连续2个交易日增加；融券余额为49.81万元，较前一交 易日减少5.24万元。 11月28日融资余额增加 ...

截至11月28日，市场融资余额合计2.46万亿元，较前一交易日增加14.84亿元，这已经是融资余额连续4 个交易日持续增加，其中，沪市融资余额12433.35亿元，较前一交易日增加1744.92万元；深市融资余额 12056.39亿元，较前一交易日增加14.28亿元；北交所融资余额75.27亿元，较前一交易日增加3884.00万 元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，具体到个股，11月28日共有1680只股获融资净买入，净买入金额在千万元 以上的有387只，其中20只融资净买入额超亿元。新易盛融资净买入额居首，当日净买入11.71亿元，其 次是中际旭创、香农芯创，融资净买入金额分别为8.60亿元、4.63亿元，融资净买入金额居前的还有德 明利、东山精密、永太科技等。 融资客大手笔净买入个股中，从最新融资余额占流通市值比例看，算术平均值为4.74%，融资余额占比 最高的是永太科技，该股最新融资余额16.64亿元，占流通市值的比例为8.02%，融资余额占比较高的还 有东材科技、香农芯创、东山精密，占比分别为7.20%、7.11%、6.75%。（数据宝） | | 业 | | | | | 属 | | --- | --- | ...

查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 点击注册小程序 【策略】多重利好因素叠加，市场探底回升——策略周专题（2025年11月第4期） 市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛市相比，当前指数仍然有相当大的上涨 空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨幅更加重要。不过短期来看，市场 可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为上可能趋于稳健，股市短期或以震荡蓄势为主。 （张宇生/郭磊）2025-11-29 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【金工】量能决定短期反弹高度——金融工程市场跟踪周报20251130 本周A股市场震荡反弹，创业板指领涨主要宽基指数。量能表现方面，本周主要宽基指数量能逆势收缩，当前 量能状态与市场反弹表现不 ...

2025 年 11 月 30 日 渐行渐近：转债到期和时间价值衰 减压力分析 ——转债凸性与定价系列报告之四 ⚫ （1）剩余期限已缩短至 2.5 年附近，金融、消费转债"老龄化"严重 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 联系人 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 债 券 策 略 - ⚫ 随着时间自然流失，转债市场剩余期限天然存在缩短趋势，而新券发行是改善转债剩余期 限的核心手段，2024 年以来随着转债新发大幅放缓，转债剩余期限明显缩短。截止到 2025/11/21，转债加权剩余期限仅为 2.53 年左右，剩余期限在 2 年以内的转债余额占 比已逼近 40%。参照历史数据来看，如果转债发行短期不明显放量，每自 ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to experience an upward breakout in December, initiating a year-end rally, driven by positive economic policy signals from the upcoming political bureau and central economic work meetings [2][4][14] - The dual focus on the Shanghai 50 and Sci-Tech 50 indices is recommended as a favorable combination for capitalizing on the anticipated market rally [2][14][19] - Key investment opportunities include non-bank financials, resource price increases, service consumption, and technology sectors that emphasize self-sufficiency [2][14][19] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming political bureau and central economic work meetings in shaping economic policy, which is expected to be more proactive, enhancing confidence in economic recovery and corporate profitability [4][15][32] - The liquidity environment is projected to remain stable, with an influx of new capital expected in December, particularly from insurance funds and increased household savings, which may lead to a classic year-end rally [4][18][25] - The focus on cyclical sectors such as coal, basic chemicals, and steel, as well as high-end manufacturing like defense and power equipment, is emphasized due to their potential for performance improvement [5][21][22] Group 3 - The report suggests that the market's style will likely shift towards large-cap stocks, with a recommendation for indices such as CSI 300 and Sci-Tech 50, reflecting a preference for stability and potential growth [20][21] - The analysis indicates that sectors with low inventory levels, optimized production capacity, and improving economic conditions should be prioritized for investment [21][22][23] - The anticipated recovery in consumer spending, particularly in service sectors, is highlighted as a critical driver for economic growth, supported by fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption [17][32][33]

Group 1 - The North Exchange 50 index increased by 0.75%, while trading volume decreased by 25.68% compared to the previous week [6][22][30] - The adjustment plan for the North Exchange 50 and the specialized index will take effect on December 15, with three companies entering the North Exchange 50 index: Kai Fa Technology, Ge Bi Jia, and Wan Tong Hydraulic [11][22] - The market sentiment for the North Exchange has significantly weakened, reflected in the declining trading share and reduced correlation with the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices [11][14][15] Group 2 - This week, one new stock, Nan Te Technology, was listed with a first-day price increase of 183.03%, bringing the total number of listed companies on the North Exchange to 285 [37][38] - The North Exchange's PE (TTM) average is 82.18 times, with a median of 40.60 times, indicating a valuation adjustment in the market [28][29] - The North Exchange's trading volume was 30.36 billion shares, a decrease of 26.14% from the previous week, with a total trading value of 665.70 billion yuan [30][34] Group 3 - In the North Exchange, 137 stocks rose while 144 fell, resulting in a decline ratio of 0.95, with Tianrun Technology and Tietuo Machinery leading the gains [43][45] - The top five stocks by weekly turnover included Dapeng Industrial and Tietuo Machinery, with significant fluctuations in their trading performance [50][51] - The new third board saw eight new listings and 71 delistings this week, with a total of 5,995 companies currently listed [56][58]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the chemical industry Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a slight recovery in profitability, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 7.54% for the first three quarters of 2025, reversing the declining trend since 2022 [20][23] - The overall revenue for the chemical industry increased by 2.96% year-on-year, reaching 18,663.84 billion yuan [20][23] - The CCPI index averaged 4021.69 points in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 11.37% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.90%, indicating that product prices remain at a low level [20][23] Summary by Sections 1. Revenue and Profit - The chemical industry achieved a revenue of 18,663.84 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, up 2.96% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1,126.98 billion yuan, up 7.54% year-on-year, marking a significant recovery from the previous decline [20][23] - In Q3 2025, the industry recorded a revenue of 6,398.78 billion yuan, which is a slight decrease of 0.08% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 2.27% year-on-year [23] 2. Profitability - The overall gross margin for the chemical industry in Q1-Q3 2025 was 17.10%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.04%, up 0.26 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Specific sub-industries showed significant improvements in profitability, including pesticides (+31,346.91%), fluorochemicals (+124.56%), and adhesives and tapes (+91.69%) [28][30] 3. Cash Flow - The operating cash flow for the chemical industry increased by 20.33% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025, indicating strong cash flow management [3] - The net cash ratio has remained above 1 since 2018, reflecting good profitability quality within the industry [3] 4. Investment and R&D - The growth rate of construction projects in the chemical industry has slowed, with a total of 368.08 billion yuan in construction projects as of Q1-Q3 2025, down 16.66% year-on-year [10] - The capital expenditure for the industry in Q3 2025 was 57.919 billion yuan, up 10.81% year-on-year, but the overall trend in capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue is declining [10] 5. Debt Servicing Ability - The asset-liability ratio for the chemical industry was 45.21% as of Q3 2025, showing a slight improvement and indicating manageable debt levels [3][9] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main investment lines: upstream resource assets with strong profitability certainty, supply-side optimization products, low-position leading stocks, and new productivity investment directions during the 14th Five-Year Plan [11][12][14][15]

Group 1 - The market experienced a rebound after a significant decline, but the adjustment in technology growth stocks has only partially addressed the value-for-money issue, with the adjustment amplitude over half but time still insufficient [2][4][5] - Historical experience suggests that when technology adjustments reach near the bull-bear boundary, it indicates a mid-term bottom area, but there may be a scenario of "amplitude in place, time insufficient" [2][4][5] - The current adjustment in technology growth stocks has passed the halfway mark, but the time required for recovery is more challenging, relying on industry catalysts and performance verification to digest valuations [2][4][5] Group 2 - The spring market is positioned as a potential rebound within a high-level consolidation phase, with two possible scenarios: a rebound in the high-level consolidation phase or a transition from adjustment to a bottom consolidation phase [5][6] - The spring market may see effective rebounds in offensive assets (technology and cyclical stocks), but upward breakthroughs are difficult to achieve, limiting the upper bound of the spring market [6][7] - The cyclical sector is expected to be the foundational asset for the spring market, with a focus on basic chemicals and industrial technology, while technology stocks may also see a general rebound due to improved short-term value-for-money [7][8] Group 3 - The "bull market two-stage theory" is a typical feature of the A-share bull market cycle, with historical examples indicating that structural bull markets are often followed by comprehensive bull markets after consolidation phases [5][6] - The current market is in a structural bull high position, with expectations for a comprehensive bull market to potentially begin in 2026 due to cyclical improvements in fundamentals and shifts in asset allocation towards equities [5][6] - The report highlights the importance of waiting for industry catalysts and performance verification to restore long-term value-for-money to historical medians, which may signal the restart of an upward trend [2][4][5]

Group 1 - The market experienced a rebound after a significant decline, but the adjustment in technology growth stocks regarding cost-performance issues has passed the halfway mark, with insufficient time for recovery [2][5][6] - Historical experience suggests that when technology adjustments reach near the bull-bear boundary, it indicates a mid-term bottom area, but there may be a situation of "sufficient amplitude, insufficient time" [2][5][6] - The current adjustment in technology growth stocks has exceeded half of its amplitude, but the time for recovery remains challenging, requiring industry catalysts and performance validation to digest valuations [5][6][7] Group 2 - The spring market is positioned as a potential rebound within a high-level consolidation phase, with effective rebounds in offensive assets (technology and cyclical stocks) likely to occur, but upward breakout logic may be difficult to realize [6][7][8] - The spring market may either be a rebound in the high-level consolidation phase of the bull market 1.0 or a transition from the adjustment phase to a bottom consolidation phase [6][7][8] - The spring market's upper limit may be constrained, as offensive assets are not yet sufficient to lead the market breakout, and the conditions for technology stocks to break upward are stricter [7][8][9] Group 3 - Short-term small rebounds are expected, with the spring market likely to see effective rebounds driven by a "policy bottom" and cyclical price increases, particularly in basic chemicals and industrial technology [8][9] - The overall adjustment amplitude of technology stocks is likely to be sufficient for a widespread rebound, with a focus on sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and national defense [9] - The Hong Kong stock market continues to exhibit high beta characteristics, with the Hang Seng Technology index showing more substantial adjustments and greater rebound elasticity [9]