证券研究报告 2026年01月30日 基础化工 有机硅行业系列深度报告： "反内卷"协同共振，供需平衡逐步修复 评级：推荐(维持) 李永磊(证券分析师) 董伯骏(证券分析师) 曾子华(联系人) S0350521080004 S0350521080009 S0350124080006 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn dongbj@ghzq.com.cn zengzh@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 相对沪深300表现 表现 1M 3M 12M -11% 3% 17% 31% 45% 59% 2025/01/29 2025/05/29 2025/09/29 2026/01/29 基础化工 沪深300 《新材料产业周报：我国5G用户普及率已达83.9%，NAND价格突破历史新 高（推荐）*基础化工*李永磊，董伯骏》——2025-12-28 《制冷剂行业动态研究：三代制冷剂仍是未来长期主流，供需缺口有望进一步 扩大（推荐）*基础化工*李永磊，董伯骏，李振方》——2025-12-02 《新材料产业周报：六氟磷酸锂价格持续上涨，北京规划建设太空数据中心 （推荐）*基础化工*李永磊，董伯骏》——202 ...

上海石化 石化油服 中国石化 中国化学 中石化冠德 上海石油化工 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 3.28 0.07 2.18% 股份 3.12% 2.18% 0.93% 0.00% 0.93% 2.18% 3.12% 3.11 3.14 3.18 3.21 3.24 3.28 3.31 09:30 10:30 11:30/13:00 14:00 15:00 4万 145万 286万 427万 截至2025年11月，全国工业品PPI、生产资料PPI及化工工业PPI均连续38个月呈现同比负增长，形成仅 次于2012-2016年周期(当时为连续54个月)的历史第二长负增长持续期间。 华泰证券研报指出，大宗化学品正处于产能及库存周期双拐点，随着2026年国内外需求恢复，有望进入 上行期。同时由于中国化学（601117）品销售量全球全占比过半，未来企业资本开支强度较2015-2025 年将显著下降，股息支付率将攀升。 1月下旬以来，美国遭遇冬季风暴极端天气已造成部分受灾地区天然气/电力供应中断、能源价格上涨等 影响，其中作为美国化工重要供给区的得克萨斯州墨西哥湾沿岸炼油、化工等部分工厂开工已受影响。 考虑到美国较多大 ...

截至2025年11月，全国工业品PPI、生产资料PPI及化工工业PPI均连续38个月呈现同比负增长，形成仅 次于2012-2016年周期(当时为连续54个月)的历史第二长负增长持续期间。 化工板块相关概念港股： 产品价格方面，以2015年以来的价格数据为基础，截至25年12月底，在该行跟踪的111个化工品种中， 价格分位数在10%以下的品种有30种，价格分位数在30%以下(含10%以下)的品种有70种，价格分位数 在50%以上的品种有25种。 中国石化(00386)、石化油服(01033)、中石化炼化工程(02386)、上海石化(00338)、中石化冠德(00934)、 中国三江化工（02198）、武汉有机(02881)等。 据报道，最近一周（1月12日至18日），化工市场部分产品价格显著上涨。在重点跟踪的化工产品中， 环氧丙烷价格周涨幅达7.9%，有机硅中间体价格亦有所上涨。 来源：智通财经 智通财经获悉，广发证券指出，化工作为典型周期性行业，通常5年一轮周期，经历"盈利上行-产能扩 张-盈利触底-产能出清/需求预期改善"四个阶段。伴随资本开支增速转负、反内卷、海外降息、扩内 需，我们看好十五五开局阶段化工 ...

同时，由于我国大宗化工品已步入产能周期和库存周期双重拐点，海外供给的潜在下滑或助力国内相关 化工品开工率提升及景气率先修复。华泰证券关注炼油、乙烯、醋酸、MDI、TDI等。 化工板块相关概念港股： 智通财经APP获悉，广发证券指出，化工作为典型周期性行业，通常5年一轮周期，经历"盈利上行-产 能扩张-盈利触底-产能出清/需求预期改善"四个阶段。伴随资本开支增速转负、反内卷、海外降息、扩 内需，我们看好十五五开局阶段化工"破晓时分"。此外，全球技术革命持续提速，材料变革迎新机遇。 华泰证券研报指出，大宗化学品正处于产能及库存周期双拐点，随着2026年国内外需求恢复，有望进入 上行期。同时由于中国化学品销售量全球全占比过半，未来企业资本开支强度较2015-2025年将显著下 降，股息支付率将攀升。 1月下旬以来，美国遭遇冬季风暴极端天气已造成部分受灾地区天然气/电力供应中断、能源价格上涨等 影响，其中作为美国化工重要供给区的得克萨斯州墨西哥湾沿岸炼油、化工等部分工厂开工已受影响。 考虑到美国较多大宗化工品占全球产能比重仍较高，因而本轮寒潮导致的潜在供给下滑或对相关产品的 供应稳定性造成一定冲击。 截至2025年1 ...

Group 1 - China Sanjiang Chemical (02198) saw its stock price rise over 5%, reaching a historical high of 4.29 HKD, with a current price of 4.26 HKD and a trading volume of 39.4632 million HKD [1][5] - In the week from January 12 to 18, chemical market prices for certain products significantly increased, with propylene oxide prices rising by 7.9% and organic silicon intermediates also experiencing price increases [1][5] - Huatai Securities' report indicates that the bulk chemical sector is at a dual turning point in capacity and inventory cycles, with expectations of an upward trend as domestic and international demand recovers by 2026 [1][5] Group 2 - China Sanjiang Chemical primarily engages in the production and supply of ethylene oxide, ethylene glycol, polypropylene, and surfactants, among other chemical products [1][5] - The company's main products include ethylene oxide, ethylene glycol, polypropylene (PP), surfactants, water-reducing agents, methyl tert-butyl ether/carbon four (MTBE/C4), and crude butylene, along with providing processing services for polypropylene, MTBE, and surfactants [1][5]

Core Viewpoint - China Sanjiang Chemical (02198) has seen its stock price rise over 5%, reaching a historical high of 4.29 HKD, driven by significant price increases in certain chemical products in the market [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock price of China Sanjiang Chemical increased by 5.42%, trading at 4.28 HKD with a transaction volume of 37.0046 million HKD [1] Group 2: Market Trends - In the week from January 12 to 18, prices of certain chemical products, including propylene oxide, rose significantly, with a weekly increase of 7.9% [1] - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the bulk chemical market is at a dual turning point in capacity and inventory cycles, with expectations of an upward trend as domestic and international demand recovers by 2026 [1] Group 3: Company Overview - China Sanjiang Chemical primarily engages in the production and supply of ethylene oxide, ethylene glycol, polypropylene, and surfactants [1] - The company's main products include ethylene oxide, ethylene glycol, polypropylene (PP), surfactants, water-reducing agents, methyl tert-butyl ether/carbon four (MTBE/C4), and crude butylene, among others [1] - The company also provides processing services for polypropylene, methyl tert-butyl ether, and surfactants, along with the production and supply of other chemical products [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Sanjiang Chemical (02198) has seen its stock price rise over 5%, reaching a historical high of 4.29 HKD, driven by significant price increases in certain chemical products [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest report, the stock price increased by 5.42%, trading at 4.28 HKD with a transaction volume of 37.0046 million HKD [1] - The chemical market has experienced notable price increases in the past week, with propylene oxide prices rising by 7.9% [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - According to Huatai Securities, the bulk chemical sector is at a dual turning point in capacity and inventory cycles, with expectations of an upward trend as domestic and international demand recovers by 2026 [1] - China's chemical sales account for over half of the global market, indicating a significant potential for capital expenditure intensity to decline from 2015 to 2025, alongside an increase in dividend payout ratios [1] Group 3: Company Overview - China Sanjiang Chemical primarily engages in the production and supply of ethylene oxide, ethylene glycol, polypropylene, and surfactants [1] - The company's main products also include methyl tert-butyl ether/carbon four (MTBE/C4), crude butene, and other chemical products, along with providing processing services for polypropylene, MTBE, and surfactants [1]

1月21日股市早报：AI医疗/存储/贵金属/化工/供暖/电网设备/消费等 ④随着特朗普加码对欧洲关税威胁，，标普500指数跌2.06%并创去年10月以来最大单日跌幅，道指跌1.76%，纳指 跌2.39%。 ，英伟达、特斯拉跌超4%。 ①六部门：延续实施养老、托育、家政等社区家庭服务业税费优惠政策。 ②财政部：对相关科技创新类贷款给予财政贴息央行同时提供再贷款支持。 ③。 ④随着特朗普加码对欧洲关税威胁，，标普500指数跌2.06%并创去年10月以来最大单日跌幅，道指跌1.76%，纳指 跌2.39%。 1月21日股市早报：AI医疗/存储/贵金属/化工/供暖/电网设备/消费等 ①六部门：延续实施养老、托育、家政等社区家庭服务业税费优惠政策。 ②财政部：对相关科技创新类贷款给予财政贴息央行同时提供再贷款支持。 ③。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.44%。 ：拟购买北京和利时87.07%股权 预计构成重大资产重组 ：关于SpaceX 太空光伏业务，公司HJT低温导电浆料市场份额全球领先，是东方日升的长期供应商（互动） ：投资的哥伦比亚Alacran矿山铜储量为40.29万吨左右，黄金储量23.5吨左右 ...

Group 1: Market Strategy and Economic Insights - The market strategy indicates a shift towards cyclical styles while the sci-tech direction is undergoing adjustments, reflecting a change in investor preferences [4][6] - The macroeconomic data shows that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained stable for the eighth consecutive month, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5% [14][15] - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have issued measures to support urban renewal actions, which may positively impact related sectors [16][17] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Southern Power Grid is expected to invest 180 billion yuan in fixed assets in 2026, marking a continuous five-year high with an average growth rate of 9.5%, focusing on new power systems and quality service improvements [23][24] - The Chengdu section of the Chengyu High-Speed Railway has completed its engineering, which is crucial for the CR450 train's operational assessment and design finalization [25][26] Group 3: Company Updates - Zhaoyan New Drug (603127.SH) forecasts a net profit of 233 million to 349 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 214% to 371% [28][29] - Canan Co., Ltd. (301122.SZ) has received two patent certificates related to its core business, which may enhance its competitive edge in the market [30][31] - New Industry (300832.SZ) has obtained regulatory approval for its myoglobin testing kit, which is significant for early diagnosis of myocardial infarction [32][33] Group 4: Regional Economic Developments - Huasheng Co., Ltd. (600156.SH) has issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of 46 million to 34 million yuan for 2025 due to intensified market competition and operational challenges during its transition phase [34][35] - Hunan province plans to implement ten measures to boost cultural and tourism consumption, aiming for a 20% increase in inbound tourists and a 15% rise in total spending [37][38]

Group 1 - Institutional trading today featured 44 stocks, with 24 seeing net purchases and 20 experiencing net sales [1] - The top three stocks with the highest institutional purchases were Vision China (CNY 112 million), Cangzhou Dahua (CNY 104 million), and Hunan Silver (CNY 80.82 million) [1] - Vision China saw a price decline of 5.77%, while Cangzhou Dahua experienced a price increase of 10% [2] Group 2 - Hunan Silver had a net purchase of CNY 80.82 million from four institutions [3] - On January 20, silver prices reached a new historical high of USD 94.726 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 31% [3] - In the chemical sector, prices for certain products, such as epoxy propylene, increased by 7.9% week-over-week [3]