工业硅高库存与去库缓慢始终是抑制价格上行的主要因素。截至12月第1周，工业硅社会库存为45.43万 吨，同比增长30.62%，较年初增加8.65万吨。期货仓单在集中注销前一度高达20万吨。工业硅总库存已 超过60万吨，若按11月的总需求估算，去库周期长达1.92个月。截至12月8日，工业硅期货仓单为37640 吨，周度环比增长3.65%，期货价格上涨的同时也面临仓单重新回流的压力。 综上所述，工业硅基本面呈现供给弹性较大、需求缺乏增量、成本支撑力度减弱的特征，为价格下行提 供空间。尽管现货价格重心目前保持稳定，但远月合约已基于上述预期先行呈现空头格局，短期内工业 硅期现价格预计将维持偏弱运行格局。（作者单位：建信期货） 编辑：张瑶 尽管西南产区电力价格有所上涨，但远月合约面临丰水季预期，叠加近期碳质还原剂价格显著下跌，进 一步打开价格下行空间。此外，2026年一季度为全年产量低位期，自二季度起供应压力预计明显增加。 成本支撑走弱与供应压力上升，共同构成远月合约的主要利空因素。 2025年7月以来，工业硅现货价格迎来反弹。截至12月上旬，工业硅通氧553#价格在9400~9500元／ 吨，421#价格在9600 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Market Perform" for the basic chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The basic chemical industry index rose by 1.63% in November 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.31 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 4.09 percentage points, ranking 7th among 30 first-level industries [3][7]. - The decline in chemical product prices has significantly slowed, with sulfur and phosphate fertilizers performing well [3][8]. - Investment strategies for December 2025 focus on polyester filament, organic silicon, spandex, and biofuels [3][8]. Market Review - In November 2025, 15 out of 33 sub-industries within the basic chemical sector saw price increases, with organic silicon, nitrogen fertilizer, and membrane materials leading the gains at 11.65%, 8.85%, and 7.92% respectively [8][11]. - A total of 213 stocks out of 527 in the basic chemical sector increased in value, with the top five gainers being Huasheng Lithium Battery, Haike New Source, Qing Shui Yuan, Fusheng Technology, and Tianhua New Energy, showing increases of 132.48%, 122.40%, 104.64%, 76.89%, and 70.74% respectively [8][11]. Product Price Tracking - In November 2025, international oil prices continued to decline, with WTI crude oil down 3.98% to $58.55 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.87% to $63.20 per barrel [3][8]. - Among 321 tracked products, 119 saw price increases, with the largest gains in sulfuric acid, argon, organic silicon intermediates, sulfur, and dimethyl carbonate, which rose by 28.24%, 21.57%, 21.10%, 20.69%, and 18.52% respectively [3][8]. Industry and Company News - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry achieved a total profit of 311.77 billion yuan from January to October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.4% [15][16]. - The expansion project of the Xiaogaozhai phosphate mine by Batian Co., Ltd. has been approved, increasing its design capacity from 2 million tons per year to 2.9 million tons per year [29][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the chemical industry [4] Core Insights - The potassium fertilizer market is expected to remain tight globally, with a focus on the growth potential of companies seeking overseas potassium resources [2] - The organic silicon industry is entering a new price increase cycle, supported by collaborative production cuts among manufacturers [3] Summary by Sections 1. Key Insights of the Week - The potassium fertilizer contract price for 2026 has been set at $348 per ton, indicating a slight increase from the previous year, reflecting a tight supply-demand situation [2] - The organic silicon intermediate price has risen to 13,700 yuan per ton, an increase of 2,600 yuan per ton since the implementation of the joint price support plan [3] 2. Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical sector index has shown a slight increase of 0.1% in the past week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [22] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the chemical sector, 159 stocks rose while 262 fell, with notable gainers including Longgao Co. (+23.3%) and Shuangxing New Materials (+21.8%) [29] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - Jiangnan Chemical plans to acquire 100% of Xi'an Qinghua Civil Explosive Materials Co. for 645 million yuan [32]

Core Viewpoint - The organic silicon industry is experiencing price increases and improved profitability due to collaborative efforts and discussions among industry players regarding pricing mechanisms and production reduction strategies [4]. Group 1: Industry Collaboration and Price Trends - Recent meetings in the organic silicon industry have focused on pricing mechanisms and production reduction, leading to significant price increases [4]. - As of November 21, the price of domestic organic silicon intermediates reached 13,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.2% compared to early November [4]. - The average gross profit in the organic silicon intermediate industry has risen to 1,209 yuan/ton, up by 2,650 yuan/ton since early November [4]. Group 2: Production Capacity and Inventory Levels - The operating rate of organic silicon plants is currently around 74.4%, showing a slight increase of 4-5 percentage points from previous weeks, but still below historical highs [5]. - Organic silicon factory inventory has decreased from a high of 53,700 tons in April 2025 to 43,800 tons as of November 21, indicating a potential for further inventory reduction [5]. - The industry is expected to maintain relatively low inventory levels, which will support prices and create favorable conditions for profitability recovery [5]. Group 3: Consumption and Demand Growth - The effective production capacity of domestic organic silicon intermediates remains stable at 3.35 million tons per year, reflecting cautious investment in new capacity amid profitability pressures [6]. - The apparent consumption of organic silicon intermediates is projected to reach 1.82 million tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.9% [6]. - For the first ten months of 2025, the apparent consumption was 1.68 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 17.0%, indicating steady demand growth in downstream applications [6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Company Positioning - The planned new capacity in the organic silicon industry is 2.15 million tons per year, but investment decisions are expected to be more cautious due to increased industry self-discipline and fluctuating profitability [7]. - Major listed companies dominate the organic silicon intermediate market, with six companies holding a combined capacity of 4.28 million tons per year, accounting for 62.0% of total capacity [8]. - This concentrated market structure is likely to promote rational competition and price stability, enhancing the leading role of major enterprises in future industry development [8].

Core Insights - The organic silicon industry is experiencing a high operating rate of 80.69% in January 2025, with a subsequent stabilization around 70% [1][2] - Domestic demand for organic silicon intermediates has shown significant growth, while export growth has slowed due to high base effects from the previous year [1] - The industry is expected to see a price recovery and positive average profits due to planned production cuts of 30% by single factories [3] Demand Side - Domestic consumption of organic silicon intermediates reached 1.5128 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.66% [1] - Export volume for organic silicon intermediates was 420,100 tons in the same period, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.30%, reflecting a slowdown due to high base effects [1] Supply Side - The peak of capacity expansion has passed, leading to an improved supply landscape; domestic production capacity for organic silicon intermediates increased from 1.675 million tons in 2020 to 3.44 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.71% [2] - The industry maintains a high concentration of production capacity, with major players like Hoshine Silicon Industry holding a 26% market share [2] Product Pricing - The average price of DMC is currently at 12,500 yuan per ton, having increased by 1,000 yuan per ton recently; the industry is positioned at historically low price levels [3] - The planned production cuts are expected to help stabilize prices and potentially lead to a recovery in industry average profits [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the organic silicon industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The domestic demand for organic silicon continues to grow significantly, while overseas exports have slowed down due to a high base from the previous year. In the first three quarters of 2025, the domestic consumption of organic silicon intermediates reached 1.5128 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.66% [3][6] - The peak of capacity expansion has passed, leading to an improved supply structure. The production capacity of organic silicon intermediates in China increased from 1.675 million tons per year in 2020 to 3.44 million tons per year in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.71% [3][8] - Product prices are at historically low levels and are expected to rise due to coordinated production cuts. As of November 13, 2025, the average price of DMC was 12,500 yuan per ton, up 1,000 yuan from the previous working day [4][13] Summary by Sections Demand Side - Domestic demand for organic silicon intermediates has been consistently high, with a projected apparent consumption of 1.8164 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.9%. The export volume for organic silicon intermediates in 2024 is expected to recover to 545,700 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 34.21% [3][6] Supply Side - The supply side is showing signs of improvement as the peak of capacity expansion has passed. The industry capacity concentration is high, with major players holding significant market shares. As of January 2025, the industry operating rate was 80.69%, which later stabilized around 70% [3][8][9] Price and Profit - The organic silicon industry has faced a significant deterioration in supply-demand dynamics, leading to negative profits. However, with the planned 30% production cut by manufacturers, there is potential for price recovery and positive profit margins in the future [4][13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Xingfa Group, Dongyue Group, and Luxi Chemical, highlighting their competitive advantages and ongoing projects that are expected to enhance their market positions [15][18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - B" [6] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" meeting for organic silicon has quickly shown results, with expectations for a joint production cut of 30% becoming more likely [1] - The domestic expansion of organic silicon production has ended, and overseas capacity is exiting, improving the competitive landscape [2] - Demand for organic silicon continues to grow, with new application areas expected to accelerate growth [3] Supply Summary - From 2019 to 2024, China's nominal capacity for organic silicon intermediates is projected to expand from 1.52 million tons to 3.44 million tons, with a CAGR of 17.8%. The large-scale capacity release is expected to cease [2] - Over the past five years, more than 300,000 tons/year of overseas capacity has exited due to high production costs in Europe and the U.S. and shifts in development focus, alleviating supply pressure [2] - The current inventory level is at 44,000 tons, which is relatively low for the year. If the planned 30% production cut is implemented, it could impact nearly 90,000 tons of supply monthly, potentially enhancing price elasticity [2] Demand Summary - As of 2024, the main downstream consumption of organic silicon in China is still in traditional sectors such as construction (25.2%), manufacturing (14.6%), and textiles (11.5%) [3] - Despite a decline in new construction area in the real estate sector affecting demand, the rise in demand from new energy, electronics, and semiconductors is expected to offset this decline [3] - The apparent consumption of organic silicon in China is projected to reach 1.816 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%. For the first nine months of 2025, consumption is expected to be 1.513 million tons, up 19.6% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in new application areas [3] Recommended Companies - Companies to watch include Dongyue Silicon Materials, Xin'an Chemical, Hoshine Silicon Industry, Xingfa Group, Sanyou Chemical, and Luxi Chemical [4]

Market Overview - A-shares maintained a volatile consolidation trend with total trading volume above 2 trillion yuan; Hong Kong stocks weakened, with the Hang Seng Index down nearly 1% and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping over 2% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.25% at 3997.56 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.36% and 0.51%, respectively [1] - Over 3100 stocks in the market were in the red, with sectors like brokerage, insurance, and semiconductors declining; however, chemical stocks related to organic silicon, phosphorus, and fluorine performed well [1] Chemical Sector - The organic silicon sector saw significant gains, with Dongyue Silicon Material and Hesheng Silicon Industry hitting the daily limit of 20% increase; Jiangsu Guotai and New安股份 also saw similar gains [2] - The organic silicon market is facing competitive pressure due to supply factors, but no new capacity is expected in the next two years, which may lead to a gradual recovery in product prices [2] - According to SAGSI, China's organic silicon intermediate production is projected to reach 2.533 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [2] Phosphorus Sector - The phosphorus concept stocks strengthened, with Qing Shui Yuan and Chengxing Co. hitting the daily limit of 20% increase; other stocks like Zhongyida and Tianji also saw gains [3] - The scarcity of phosphorus ore resources is becoming more pronounced due to years of disorderly mining, and the demand from downstream sectors is expected to keep prices high [3] Lithium Battery and Photovoltaic Sectors - The lithium battery sector surged, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit; Tianqi Lithium and other companies saw significant increases [4] - Tianqi Lithium announced contracts for the supply of electrolyte products, with expected total quantities of 870,000 tons for 2026-2028 [4] - Prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolytes have rebounded significantly since August, with lithium hexafluorophosphate prices increasing over 140% since July [5] - The photovoltaic sector also saw gains, with companies like Qianzhao Optoelectronics and Hongyuan Green Energy hitting the daily limit [6] - The industry is undergoing consolidation to eliminate excess capacity and improve product quality standards, which may enhance the competitive landscape [6] Company Spotlight - Wentai Technology experienced a sharp rise in stock price, nearing the daily limit, with a total trading volume of 3.77 billion yuan [7] - The company and its subsidiary, Anshi Semiconductor, have gained global attention following a statement from the Dutch government regarding the restoration of supply chains [8] - The Chinese government has approved export licenses for semiconductor supplies, aiming to stabilize the supply chain [8]

Core Viewpoint - Dongyue Silicon Materials (300821) has clarified its main products, which include silicone rubber, silicone oil, silicone resin, fumed silica, and organic silicon intermediates [1] Company Overview - The company specializes in a diverse range of silicone products, indicating a strong position in the silicone materials market [1]

Group 1 - The core issue raised by investors is the recent surge in the price of methyldibutyl ketoxime silane and whether the company produces this product [2] - Dongyue Silicon Materials (300821.SZ) confirmed on October 20 that its main products include silicone rubber, silicone oil, silicone resin, fumed silica, and organic silicon intermediates, but it does not currently produce the mentioned product [2]