Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil price volatility has increased this week, and the rebound height may be limited without clear signals of production cuts or a significant escalation of geopolitical situations [4] - PX supply and demand are expected to ease, and PTA prices are expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term due to weak downstream demand [4] - Ethylene glycol is in a situation of supply surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [5] - Pure benzene and styrene are generally cautiously bullish, but there is a risk of correction [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - This week, oil prices fluctuated sharply due to geopolitical and Fed policy uncertainties. Tensions in the Middle East, concerns about potential supply disruptions, a reduction in US crude oil production due to force majeure, a decrease in US crude oil inventories, and a decline in the US dollar index supported oil prices [4] - OPEC+ announced a suspension of the production increase plan for the first three months of 2026 at the end of 2025, but the long - term production increase trend remains unchanged. Non - OPEC+ producers are expected to contribute an output increase of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026 [4] PX & PTA - Domestic PX load remained unchanged, and processing fees fell to around $300/ton. With the end of some device maintenance, PX supply and demand are expected to ease, and attention should be paid to the subsequent terminal restocking [4][10] - This week, PTA devices remained unchanged, factory inventories started to accumulate, and downstream operations weakened significantly. There is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation in February. The polyester industry's operating rate will decline rapidly, and the overall maintenance intensity exceeds that of the same period last year [4] - The current spot price of PTA is 5,068 yuan/ton, with a weekly average capacity utilization rate of 76.29%. Factory - in inventory days increased to 3.72 days. PTA processing fees are 422 yuan/ton. As future supply recovers and downstream demand weakens, PTA prices are expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [16] MEG - At the beginning of the month, there are plans for large Saudi contract ships to enter the warehouse, and the near - term arrivals are still relatively high. The arrivals will gradually decrease from mid - February [5] - The seasonal inventory accumulation from January to February is at a high level since 2021, and the future expectation is difficult to reverse. Polyester demand is weak, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol is imbalanced, and device losses are expanding [5] - The current price of ethylene glycol is around 3,600 yuan/ton, which has a certain support. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to overseas situations [5] BZ & EB - The operating rate of pure benzene has increased, and there are expectations of restarting multiple domestic related devices, so the overall supply is expected to rise. This week, the pure benzene port inventory remained flat but is still at a high level [5][38] - It is expected that during the Spring Festival, the load reduction of styrene will be limited under high profits, while other varieties with weak profits may have obvious load reductions. In February, the overall demand will remain stable month - on - month, and it is expected to gradually enter a seasonal inventory accumulation pattern [5] - The overall operating rate of downstream 3S is not high, showing an inventory reduction trend. With the subsequent resumption of some devices and the high inventory of pure benzene, there is a risk of correction. Pure benzene and styrene are generally cautiously bullish [5] Polyester Industry - The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry is 79.53%, a decrease of 2.34 percentage points from last week. As the Spring Festival approaches, multiple devices are under maintenance, and the domestic polyester industry output continues to decline significantly [30] - The operating rate of sample enterprises in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving industry is 22.47%, a decrease of 19.94% from the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days is 6.35 days, a decrease of 0.35 days from last week. The average level of terminal weaving finished product inventory is 26.08 days, a decrease of 2.72 days from last week [30]

BZ&EB周报：短期EB高位震荡 资料来源：隆众，国泰君安期货研究 纯苯投产仍然较多 下游投产进入尾声 | | | | | | | | | ABS | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 工厂 | 产能 | 工厂 | 产能 | 工厂 | 产能 | 工厂 | 产能 | | 2026年上半年 | 1月 | | | | | 上海赛科 | 12 | | | | | 2月 | | | | | | | | | | | 3月 | | | | | 河南网塑 | 20 | | | | | 4月 | | | 山东辉航 | 12 | | | | | | | 5月 | | | | | | | | | | | 6月 | | | | | | | | | | 2026年下半年 | 7月 | | | | | | | 高桥扩能 | 7.5 | | | 8月 | 华锦阿美 | 60 | | | 河南网塑 | 20 | 英力士 | 30 | | | 9月 | | | 广西骅桥 | 40 | 卫星石化 | 20 | | | | | | | | 浙 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings PTA - Core view: Neutral [5] - Month spread: Cautiously bearish [5] - Spot: Neutral [5] - Cost: Neutral [5] - Device change: Neutral [5] - Downstream demand: Neutral [5] - Supply - demand balance: Cautiously bearish [5] - Processing profit: Cautiously bearish [5] PX - Core view: Neutral [6] - Month spread: Neutral [6] - Spot: Neutral [6] - Device change: Neutral [6] - Import: Cautiously bearish [6] - Downstream demand: Neutral [6] - Supply - demand balance: Neutral [6] - Processing profit: Cautiously bearish [6] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - Core view: Neutral [7] - Month spread: Neutral [7] - Spot: Neutral [7] - Device change: Neutral [7] - Import: Neutral [7] - Downstream demand: Cautiously bearish [7] - Supply - demand balance: Neutral [7] - Processing profit: Neutral [7] 2. Report's Core Views PTA - PTA supply changes little, demand experiences seasonal decline, but positive capital expectations lead to a significant repair of processing fees. Short - term focus is on capital changes [5][57]. PX - PX supply - demand changes little, with high Asian operating rates. Near - term floating prices are weak, and PXN valuation is not low. Short - term focus is on capital changes [6][88]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - There are plans for domestic MEG plants to switch production, and overseas maintenance increases. Supply is expected to improve, while demand seasonally declines. Real - world inventory is accumulating seasonally from January to February. Short - term focus is on capital changes [7][137]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Weaving - Weaving is gradually reducing its operating rate. As of January 23, the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and printing and dyeing dropped to 66% (-4%), 49% (-6%), and 70% (-) respectively. Due to high raw material prices, downstream stockpiling is low, only about 1 - 2 weeks [9]. Polyester - As of January 23, the polyester load was around 86.2% (-2.1%). Cost rebounds compressed polyester cash flow again, and the average polyester inventory remained stable at around 12.7 days. Polyester plants are gradually implementing pre - holiday maintenance, and the subsequent operating rate may decline seasonally. The estimated loads for January and February are 88% and 83% (-1%) respectively [14][40]. PTA - **Device maintenance**: Many PTA devices are under maintenance. For example, Ineos, New Materials are in maintenance, and Dushan Energy's No. 2 device is planned to stop in late January. The planned maintenance volume from January to February is not low [48][50]. - **Inventory**: As of January 23, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased to 2.083 million tons, up 38,000 tons. The inventory pressure is currently not large [51]. - **Balance sheet**: From January to February, there is a small seasonal inventory accumulation. PTA processing fees are over 400 yuan, and short - term focus is on capital drivers [55][57]. PX - **Device operation**: The domestic PX operating rate is 88.9%, and Asia's is 81%, both at high levels. Shanghai Petrochemical slightly increased its load, while Zhejiang Petrochemical slightly decreased its load for 2 - 3 weeks. Sinochem Quanzhou plans to restart. In Asia, South Korea's GS reduced its load, and other changes are minor [6][79]. - **Balance sheet**: The near - term supply - demand is in a loose balance. PXN is around $350, with a relatively high valuation. Attention should be paid to capital changes [87][88]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Device operation**: As of January 23, the overall MEG operating rate was stable at a high level, with a total load of 73.66% and a coal - based load of 80%. Many domestic devices have maintenance, production reduction, or production switching plans. Overseas, there are also many device maintenance plans [104][106][122]. - **Inventory**: As of January 26, the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area was about 858,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,000 tons. The inventory is moderately high. The polyester factory's MEG raw material stockpiling days increased to 15.9 days (+0.7), and downstream stockpiling increased steadily [132]. - **Balance sheet**: Supply is expected to improve, while demand is seasonally weakening. There is seasonal inventory accumulation from January to February. As the price rebounds, the valuation has recovered significantly, and attention should be paid to capital changes [134][137].

BZ&Eb周报：维持底部区间震荡 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：底部区间震荡 • 纯苯国产：12月检修11万吨，1月检修维持11万吨（假设考虑浙石化检修带来4.5万吨减量），主要是中化泉州、丽东、浙石化等装置检修量大。 部分山东地炼在解决了配额问题之后仍会提高负荷，弥补部分产量损失。1月关注巴斯夫湛江新投产带来的纯苯增量。 • 纯苯进口：外盘压力仍然偏大，韩国纯苯抛压在11月-12月仍然偏大，进口居高难下。1月目前进口分歧较大，预计仍然在45万吨左右的高进口， 2月之后的进口待评估。 • 苯乙烯：12月检修8.5万吨，1月检修6.5万吨。12月之后装置开工逐步恢复，关注山东国恩化工装置开工带来的增量。 • 己内酰胺：CPL负反馈开始，工厂逐步降低负荷，12月预计4万吨检修,1月有6万吨检修，主要是福建永荣、天辰、华鲁恒升、旭阳沧州等。12月 关注恒逸钦州项目的投产，1月关注陕西阳煤的扩产。关注近期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR and suggests to focus on the Sheng Hong PX plant situation [5]. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, oil prices dropped significantly as Brent fell below $67 per barrel again due to OPEC considering further lifting production restrictions. The impact of the latest OPEC news on the oil market is more emotional, and the short - term direction of oil prices is unclear considering uncertainties like Russia - Ukraine peace talks. Naphtha has been strong recently due to supply disruptions and expected demand recovery [1][2]. - In the PX market, after the restart of Idemitsu's maintenance plant in early September and the future restart of Fuhai Chuang, the PX load at home and abroad is expected to rise. The PX balance sheet has shifted from destocking to a loose balance, and the floating price of near - month PX has weakened, but PXN has support at the bottom due to low inventory and new PTA plant demand [2]. - In the PTA market, the actual maintenance volume of Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton PTA plant is less than expected and may restart ahead of schedule, narrowing the destocking range in September. The spot basis has weakened, and the demand recovery is limited with insufficient order connections [3]. - In the demand aspect, the polyester operating rate is 90.3% (up 0.3% month - on - month). There are signs of demand recovery, but this week's order connections are insufficient, and the weaving and texturing loads have declined. The polyester load is expected to continue to rise steadily in the short term [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit is 117 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month). The load has increased as some previously reduced - production plants have resumed, and the overall supply - demand situation has improved with inventory destocking, but there is obvious wait - and - see sentiment [3]. - For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is 425 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan/ton month - on - month). The fundamentals have changed little, and the industry is expected to maintain a 20% production reduction target in September, with limited subsequent load increase and expected small fluctuations in processing fees [4]. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report shows TA and PX's main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber basis [11][12][14] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][22] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Covers toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan CFR naphtha spread, and PTA export profit [27][28] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Presents the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX operating rates in China and Asia [30][33][36] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Covers filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing operating rates [48][50][59] VII. PF Detailed Data - Contains polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn operating rates, production profits, and processing fees [70][80][82] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Includes polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot and export processing fees, export profit, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [89][91][104]