化工品供需平衡

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成本端油价大跌,PX/PTA延续弱势
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 07:53
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR and suggests to focus on the Sheng Hong PX plant situation [5]. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, oil prices dropped significantly as Brent fell below $67 per barrel again due to OPEC considering further lifting production restrictions. The impact of the latest OPEC news on the oil market is more emotional, and the short - term direction of oil prices is unclear considering uncertainties like Russia - Ukraine peace talks. Naphtha has been strong recently due to supply disruptions and expected demand recovery [1][2]. - In the PX market, after the restart of Idemitsu's maintenance plant in early September and the future restart of Fuhai Chuang, the PX load at home and abroad is expected to rise. The PX balance sheet has shifted from destocking to a loose balance, and the floating price of near - month PX has weakened, but PXN has support at the bottom due to low inventory and new PTA plant demand [2]. - In the PTA market, the actual maintenance volume of Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton PTA plant is less than expected and may restart ahead of schedule, narrowing the destocking range in September. The spot basis has weakened, and the demand recovery is limited with insufficient order connections [3]. - In the demand aspect, the polyester operating rate is 90.3% (up 0.3% month - on - month). There are signs of demand recovery, but this week's order connections are insufficient, and the weaving and texturing loads have declined. The polyester load is expected to continue to rise steadily in the short term [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit is 117 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month). The load has increased as some previously reduced - production plants have resumed, and the overall supply - demand situation has improved with inventory destocking, but there is obvious wait - and - see sentiment [3]. - For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is 425 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan/ton month - on - month). The fundamentals have changed little, and the industry is expected to maintain a 20% production reduction target in September, with limited subsequent load increase and expected small fluctuations in processing fees [4]. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report shows TA and PX's main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber basis [11][12][14] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][22] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Covers toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan CFR naphtha spread, and PTA export profit [27][28] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Presents the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX operating rates in China and Asia [30][33][36] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Covers filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing operating rates [48][50][59] VII. PF Detailed Data - Contains polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn operating rates, production profits, and processing fees [70][80][82] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Includes polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot and export processing fees, export profit, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [89][91][104]