BZ&Eb周报：维持底部区间震荡 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：底部区间震荡 • 纯苯国产：12月检修11万吨，1月检修维持11万吨（假设考虑浙石化检修带来4.5万吨减量），主要是中化泉州、丽东、浙石化等装置检修量大。 部分山东地炼在解决了配额问题之后仍会提高负荷，弥补部分产量损失。1月关注巴斯夫湛江新投产带来的纯苯增量。 • 纯苯进口：外盘压力仍然偏大，韩国纯苯抛压在11月-12月仍然偏大，进口居高难下。1月目前进口分歧较大，预计仍然在45万吨左右的高进口， 2月之后的进口待评估。 • 苯乙烯：12月检修8.5万吨，1月检修6.5万吨。12月之后装置开工逐步恢复，关注山东国恩化工装置开工带来的增量。 • 己内酰胺：CPL负反馈开始，工厂逐步降低负荷，12月预计4万吨检修,1月有6万吨检修，主要是福建永荣、天辰、华鲁恒升、旭阳沧州等。12月 关注恒逸钦州项目的投产，1月关注陕西阳煤的扩产。关注近期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR and suggests to focus on the Sheng Hong PX plant situation [5]. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, oil prices dropped significantly as Brent fell below $67 per barrel again due to OPEC considering further lifting production restrictions. The impact of the latest OPEC news on the oil market is more emotional, and the short - term direction of oil prices is unclear considering uncertainties like Russia - Ukraine peace talks. Naphtha has been strong recently due to supply disruptions and expected demand recovery [1][2]. - In the PX market, after the restart of Idemitsu's maintenance plant in early September and the future restart of Fuhai Chuang, the PX load at home and abroad is expected to rise. The PX balance sheet has shifted from destocking to a loose balance, and the floating price of near - month PX has weakened, but PXN has support at the bottom due to low inventory and new PTA plant demand [2]. - In the PTA market, the actual maintenance volume of Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton PTA plant is less than expected and may restart ahead of schedule, narrowing the destocking range in September. The spot basis has weakened, and the demand recovery is limited with insufficient order connections [3]. - In the demand aspect, the polyester operating rate is 90.3% (up 0.3% month - on - month). There are signs of demand recovery, but this week's order connections are insufficient, and the weaving and texturing loads have declined. The polyester load is expected to continue to rise steadily in the short term [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit is 117 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month). The load has increased as some previously reduced - production plants have resumed, and the overall supply - demand situation has improved with inventory destocking, but there is obvious wait - and - see sentiment [3]. - For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is 425 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan/ton month - on - month). The fundamentals have changed little, and the industry is expected to maintain a 20% production reduction target in September, with limited subsequent load increase and expected small fluctuations in processing fees [4]. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report shows TA and PX's main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber basis [11][12][14] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][22] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Covers toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan CFR naphtha spread, and PTA export profit [27][28] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Presents the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX operating rates in China and Asia [30][33][36] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Covers filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing operating rates [48][50][59] VII. PF Detailed Data - Contains polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn operating rates, production profits, and processing fees [70][80][82] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Includes polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot and export processing fees, export profit, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [89][91][104]