投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 PX 期价有望震荡企稳 宝城期货 陈栋 在春节假期效应、下游聚酯需求淡季、装置检修节奏与新增产能空窗多重因素交织下，节前国内 PX 期货 2605 合约呈现震荡偏弱的走势，期价跌落至 7200-7250 元/吨区间内运行。虽然短期内 PX 下游需求尚 难快速恢复，不过在上游原油价格大幅上涨的成本驱动下，叠加二季度 PX 装置集中检修以及下游聚酯消 费好转，预计节后国内 PX 期货有望维持震荡企稳的走势。 存量高负荷运行，上半年无新增产能 国内 PX 供应端已进入存量产能满产，新增产能真空，供应弹性显著收窄的现象。据了解，产能层面， 2024-2025 年国内 PX 行业连续两年无大型新装置投产，当前总产能稳定在 4400 万吨左右，有效运行产能 约 4250 万吨，行业满产上限约 97%。2026 年国内计划新增 PX 产能 410 万吨，包括福佳大化 60 万吨、华 锦阿美 200 万吨、九江石化 150 万吨，但除福佳大化年初小幅扩建外，其余装置均集中于下半年投产。因 此今年上半年完全无新增产能释放，供应端仅依赖存量装置提负维持。开工 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PX is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom, and a reverse spread for the monthly spread is recommended. Investors should pay attention to position management during the long Spring Festival holiday [5]. - PTA has limited downside space, and the monthly spread is bearish. Short PTA when the processing fee is above 450. Pay attention to the support at 5100 yuan/ton. Position management is necessary during the Spring Festival [6]. - MEG's inventory continues to rise, with large supply pressure. A reverse spread operation for the basis and monthly spread is suggested. The basis and monthly spread trends remain weak, and investors should manage positions during the Spring Festival [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **PX**: The closing price of the PX main contract was 7378, up 70 (0.96%) from the previous day. The PX5 - 9 monthly spread was 22, up 14 from the previous day [2]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the PTA main contract was 5260, up 30 (0.57%) from the previous day. The PTA5 - 9 monthly spread was 24, down 4 from the previous day [2]. - **MEG**: The closing price of the MEG main contract was 3764, up 31 (0.83%) from the previous day. The MEG5 - 9 monthly spread was - 110, down 2 from the previous day [2]. - **PF**: The closing price of the PF main contract was 6654, up 28 (0.42%) from the previous day. The PF3 - 4 monthly spread was - 66, up 8 from the previous day [2]. - **SC**: The closing price of the SC main contract was 476.8, up 0.7 (0.15%) from the previous day. The SC2 - 3 monthly spread was 1, up 3.7 from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - **PX**: The PX CFR China price was 917.33 dollars/ton, up 8.33 dollars/ton from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread was 294.05 dollars/ton, up 5.96 dollars/ton from the previous day [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA price in East China was 5180 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PTA processing fee was 378.86 yuan/ton, down 49.15 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG spot price was 3663 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. Market News - **PX**: On February 11, PX prices rose. The Platts - assessed Asian p - xylene CFR Unv1/China and FOB Korea indicators both rose 8.33 dollars/ton. The futures market rise was due to short - covering rather than fundamental changes in the physical market [3][4]. - **MEG**: A 400,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol unit in Xinjiang restarted one line and plans to restart another line around this Friday. A 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol unit in Lianyungang has stopped production for conversion, with an initial plan of at least 2 - 3 months [4]. - **Polyester**: On February 11, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased individually but remained weak overall, with an average sales rate of over 40% by 4:30 pm. The average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber factories was 29% by 3:00 pm [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the overall liquidity will remain abundant [7]. - Global asset allocation is expected to gradually shift from a high - concentration allocation of US dollar assets to a more diversified layout in the next 3 - 5 years, and Chinese assets are favored by foreign institutions [8]. - Most commodities in the market are in a state of supply - demand game, with prices mainly in an interval - oscillating pattern, and it is recommended to operate lightly or wait and see before the Spring Festival [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and carry out regular treasury bond trading operations [7]. - Ray Dalio warns that the US is on the verge of a "fifth stage" of the imperial cycle, and suggests that gold should account for 5% - 15% of the investment portfolio [7]. - China encourages the cultivation and development of future industries to seize the high - ground of science and technology and industry [7]. - On Tuesday, the A - share market showed a narrow - range consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.13% and achieving six consecutive positive days. The Hong Kong stock market also rose, and Chinese assets are favored by foreign institutions [8]. - Five departments jointly issued an opinion to strengthen the construction of information and communication capabilities to support the development of low - altitude infrastructure [9]. - Alphabet issued 100 - year bonds for the first time, with over 7 times over - subscription, and its global debt issuance exceeded $30 billion [9]. 3.2 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price is expected to maintain an interval - oscillating pattern, with potential for a pre - holiday corrective rebound. The upper pressure is around 5300 yuan, and the lower support is around 5250 yuan [12]. - **Corn**: The corn price has broken through the original prediction range. One can pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions after the price retraces to the new support level of 2270 yuan [12]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or adopt an interval - trading strategy [12]. - **Pigs**: The supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the demand increase is less than expected. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [12]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs continues to decline, and the futures market maintains an oscillation, with near - term strength and long - term weakness [13]. - **Red dates**: The price of red dates is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the futures market is looking for lower support [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. One can consider laying out long positions at low prices [13]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic soda**: The caustic soda market is in an oversupply situation. One should pay attention to the impact of supply - side disturbances on prices and operate with a light position during the holiday [13]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13]. - **Logs**: The log price is expected to maintain an interval - oscillating pattern, with the upper pressure around 780 yuan and the lower support around 765 yuan [15]. - **Pulp**: The pulp market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy in the 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton interval [15]. - **Offset paper**: The offset paper market is in a weak supply - demand balance. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions lightly when the price is high [16]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is running strongly. One should pay attention to the changes in the start - up of downstream urea enterprises around the Spring Festival [16]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and aluminum**: The copper price is affected by the weakening US dollar, but the weak domestic demand restricts its upward space. The aluminum market has increasing supply pressure and weakening demand, and it is recommended to operate with a light position during the holiday [17]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, waiting for new market drivers, and it is recommended to operate with a light position during the holiday [17]. - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: Before the Spring Festival, the steel price is expected to be under pressure and run weakly [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is affected by the decline of the black series, but the cost has certain support. It is recommended to operate with a light position during the holiday [17][19]. 3.2.4 Lithium Carbonate The lithium carbonate price shows signs of stabilizing. One can pay attention to the opportunity of laying out long positions after the price confirms stability after the Spring Festival [19]. 3.2.5 Options and Finance - **Stock index futures and options**: The stock index is mainly in an oscillating pattern. One can consider buying a straddle strategy during the holiday. The A - share market is expected to maintain an interval - oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival, and the probability of resuming an upward trend after the holiday is high [19][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the futures market of various energy - chemical products, including their price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and provides corresponding investment suggestions. For different products, the market is generally characterized by fluctuations, with some products facing supply - demand imbalances, cost pressures, or geopolitical impacts [2][9][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost collapse leads to price decline and weakening of the monthly spread. It is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the processing fee has declined. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday, with a downward trend in the single - side price following the cost [5][9] - **PTA**: It is in a state of range - bound oscillation, with a bearish monthly spread. The polyester start - up rate is expected to decline marginally, and the supply is stable, resulting in a situation of inventory accumulation in January - February. The single - side price should focus on the support level of 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton [10] - **MEG**: It is a single - side range - bound market, and it is recommended to operate within the range of 3700 - 4000. The supply is increasing, and the import volume remains high. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [10] 3.2 Rubber - It shows a wide - range oscillation. The price of Thai raw materials has increased, and the production in some regions has decreased. However, the overall market trend is neutral [11][12][14] 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - It oscillates under pressure. The inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises has decreased, and the port inventory of butadiene has declined. The supply pressure of butadiene is increasing, and the futures price is falling from a high - valuation level [15][16][17] 3.4 LLDPE - The import is narrowing, and the bids are limited. The strong naphtha compresses the cracking profit. The raw material oil price has stabilized, and the downstream demand has weakened. The supply side has some changes, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday and the destocking rate after the holiday [18][19] 3.5 PP - The valuation repair is limited, and the L - PP spread is under pressure. The cost side has stabilized, and the supply - demand game of existing inventory has intensified. The demand side has limited support, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [21][22] 3.6 Caustic Soda - The near - month delivery pressure is relatively large. The inventory in Shandong is high, and the short - term spot weakness is difficult to reverse. However, the far - month contract may face cost increases and large - scale production cuts [24][25] 3.7 Pulp - It oscillates. The import pulp market has declined, mainly affected by weak demand, the inability of cost increases to be transmitted, and the slowdown of downstream production activities before the holiday [30][31][33] 3.8 Glass - The price of glass original sheets is stable. The market demand is weakening before the holiday, and the local production capacity is expected to decrease, which provides some support for the price [35][36] 3.9 Methanol - It oscillates with support. The port methanol price has declined, and the inventory has decreased. The inland price has continued to decline. The macro - level has both positive and negative factors, and the supply - demand pattern suppresses the upward price space. The cost provides support at the bottom [38][40][41] 3.10 Urea - It oscillates in the short term. The enterprise inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot price is stable. The short - term oscillation has support, with a fundamental pressure level of around 1830 yuan/ton and a support level of around 1750 - 1760 yuan/ton [43][44][45] 3.11 Styrene - It oscillates strongly. The capital sentiment has receded, and the market is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. The downstream profit has been squeezed, and the inventory is expected to enter a seasonal accumulation phase. The upward driving force is limited [46][47] 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is oscillating at a low level, the enterprise production is slightly decreasing, and the downstream demand is tepid. The price may oscillate weakly and stably [51] 3.13 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong, but the fundamental driving force is downward. The price of CP paper has increased, and the PDH device has some maintenance plans [54][59] - **Propylene**: The upward driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances [54] 3.14 PVC - It oscillates weakly. The spot supply and demand are weak, the export atmosphere has weakened, and the industry continues to accumulate inventory. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [62][63] 3.15 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It continues to rebound, and the short - term weakness is suspended [65] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It adjusts in a narrow range, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market remains at a historical low [65] 3.16 Container Freight Index (European Line) - The expectation of price increase is rising again. The futures price has increased, and shipping companies have announced price increases. The supply - side capacity has been adjusted, and the geopolitical situation affects the shipping routes. Different contracts have different investment strategies [67][77][80] 3.17 Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a short - term oscillating market. The futures price oscillates weakly, and the spot price is stable. The factory sales rate is highly differentiated [82] - **Bottle Chips**: It is in a short - term oscillating market. The upstream raw material price has declined, and the factory price has been partially adjusted. The market trading atmosphere is acceptable [83] 3.18 Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to hold short positions and reverse spreads. The spot price in Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable, the paper mill orders are average, and the market trading atmosphere is weak [85][86][88] 3.19 Pure Benzene - It oscillates strongly. The port inventory of pure benzene has decreased slightly, and the spot and paper - cargo prices have declined. The market is in a state of strong oscillation [90][91][92]

化工日报 | 2026-02-04 长丝价格坚挺，产销维持低位 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，近期仍围绕伊朗局势波动。周一原油大幅下跌，地缘溢价回吐，Brent油价从上月末的70美元/桶附近下跌 至65~66美元/桶附近。上周末美伊释放出进行和谈的信号，同时伊朗官员表示，有关伊朗革命卫队计划在霍尔木兹 海峡举行军事演习的媒体报道是错误的，显示出地缘风险有降温信号。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN310美元/吨(环比变动-6.88美元/吨）。近期PX基本面未有明显变动，实货浮动价略有反 弹，PXN在近端累库下回撤。近期PX效益提升带来供应增加预期，另外内外盘套利会带来更多进口，同时需求端 检修计划陆续兑现，现实基本面偏弱。但PX中期预期依然较好，利润修复会带来PX二季度检修计划取消或推迟的 逻辑难证实，关注PX检修兑现和进口情况。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -68元/吨 元/吨(环比变动+3元/吨），PTA现货加工费376元/吨（环比变动-48元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费423元/吨（环比变动+21元/吨），基本面方面，聚酯工厂春节减产计划陆续兑现，PTA近端供 需趋累。中长期随着产能集中投放周期 ...

■亚期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年2月4日 Z0003135 张晓珍 | 甲醇价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 2月3日 | 2月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | MA2605 收盘价 | 2247 | 2252 | -5 | -0.22% | | | MA2609 收盘价 | 2279 | 2278 | 1 | 0.04% | | | MA59价差 | -32 | -26 | -6 | 23.08% | | | 太仓基差 | -42 | -50 | 8 | -16.00% | | | MTO05盘面 | -107 | -120 | 13 | -10.83% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 1780 | 1780 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2000 | 2008 | -8 | -0.37% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2200 | 2210 | -10 | -0.45% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 420 | 43 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: High-level shock market before the holiday, with a bearish view on the monthly spread [7] - PTA: Range-bound shock market, with a bearish view on the monthly spread [8] - MEG: Range-bound shock market, operate within the range of 3700 - 4000 [9] 2. Core Views - The overall market of PX, PTA, and MEG is in a state of high-level or range-bound shock, with varying degrees of bearishness on spreads and a general trend of inventory accumulation [7][8][9] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs PX - **Price and Market Conditions**: On February 3, the PX price rebounded, with multiple spot transactions. The PX valuation was 897 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars from the previous day. The PX-石脑油 spread in January averaged 342.17 dollars/ton, higher than that in December. The PX futures closed higher, and the buying interest in CFR Unv1/China goods in March and April was strong [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: The upstream performance was mixed. The domestic PX device restarted, and the domestic device operating rate rose to 89.2%. The Asian device operating rate was 81.6% (+1%). The PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 76.6%. The PX entered the inventory accumulation pattern, and the monthly import volume in the first quarter increased to about 900,000 tons [7] - **Trading Suggestions**: High-level shock market before the holiday, monthly spread anti-arbitrage. Try shorting PTA processing fees when they are above 450 [7] PTA - **Price and Market Conditions**: The PTA spot price fell to 5080 yuan/ton, with a weak basis and light trading volume after the price increase [5][8] - **Fundamentals**: The polyester operating rate was expected to be 88% in January, 80.5% in February, and 91% in March. The current polyester inventory was neutral, and the rigid demand for PTA was expected to decline marginally. The PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 76.6%, and the new Fengming 2.5 million tons was planned to be overhauled in February, which could not change the inventory accumulation pattern from January to February [8] - **Trading Suggestions**: Range-bound shock market, monthly spread bearish. Try shorting PTA processing fees when they are above 450. Pay attention to the support at 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton [8] MEG - **Price and Market Conditions**: A 500,000 tons/year MEG device in South China restarted, with a load of over 80%. The arrival volume at major ports from February 2 to 8 was about 123,000 tons [5] - **Fundamentals**: The device operating rate rose to 74.4% (+1.3%). The import volume of ethylene glycol from January to February remained high, with an average monthly volume of over 700,000 tons. The weekly arrival volume decreased to 120,000 tons. The downstream polyester operating rate was expected to decline marginally in the short term, and the rigid demand for MEG weakened, making it difficult to change the inventory accumulation pattern [9] - **Trading Suggestions**: Range-bound shock market, operate within the range of 3700 - 4000 [9] Polyester - The sales volume of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on February 3 was generally light, with an average sales volume estimated at 10 - 20% by 3:45 pm. The sales volume of direct-spun polyester staple fiber factories was highly differentiated, with an average sales volume of 57% by 3:00 pm [5]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is expected to see an improvement in supply-demand structure and competitive landscape by 2026, leading to a valuation recovery in the sector. Market sentiment is shifting towards undervalued chemical equity assets, positively impacting commodity markets and driving up chemical futures prices [1]. Supply Side - As of January 30, domestic PX operating rates are at a historical high of 89.2%, with a weak maintenance schedule compared to previous years, and overseas plants planning to increase output, indicating a generally ample supply [1]. - The PX-MX price spread has strengthened, reaching a five-year high, driven by high profits encouraging factories to source MX for PX production [1]. - PTA processing fees averaged 359.7 RMB/ton in January, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%, with processing fees recovering to a six-month high due to PX price increases lagging behind PTA [3]. Demand Side - As of January 30, terminal operating rates have declined, with the comprehensive operating rate for Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines at 34.0%, and the overall demand is expected to weaken as factories begin early holidays, averaging 30-40 days off [4]. - The polyester sector is facing a reduction in operating rates, with approximately 17.4% of national capacity planned for maintenance in January-February, leading to increased pressure on inventory levels post-holiday [6]. - Despite a decline in textile exports, there is resilience in some Southeast Asian orders, but overall domestic demand remains weak, with limited replenishment expected post-holiday [8][9]. Market Outlook - The PTA spot basis is expected to weaken due to reduced polyester production and declining terminal demand, leading to inventory accumulation pressures in the first quarter [9]. - The market anticipates that PTA futures prices will fluctuate, with mid-term investors advised to wait for a pullback to the 5000-5100 RMB/ton support area before entering long positions [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core View - For PTA, due to the approaching Spring Festival, terminal factories are about to have holidays, polyester production cuts are expanding, demand is weakening, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in February. With large cost - side disturbances and unclear crude oil trends, the short - term PTA price is expected to be volatile and bearish [3] - For MEG, although the comprehensive operating rate has decreased, port inventories are still increasing and there are large - ship arrival plans in February, so the inventory accumulation expectation is hard to reverse. With weakening downstream polyester demand before the festival, there is a supply - demand imbalance. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Related Contents PTA - **主力合约情况**：On February 3, the PTA main futures contract TA605 fell 1.08%, and the basis strengthened to -63 yuan/ton [2] - **基本面情况**：The market price of PTA in East China today was 5085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost - side Brent crude oil rose sharply and then fell back to $66/barrel. The PTA capacity utilization rate remained flat at 75.83% compared with the previous working day, and the weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.58 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from last week [3] - **主力动向**：Long - position main players reduced their positions [3] - **走势预期**：As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, terminal factories are about to have holidays, polyester production cuts are expanding, demand is weakening, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in February. With large cost - side disturbances and unclear crude oil trends, the short - term PTA price is expected to be volatile and bearish [3] MEG - **主力合约情况**：On February 3, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2605 fell 1.98%, and the basis strengthened to -107 yuan/ton [4] - **基本面情况**：The market price of ethylene glycol in East China today was 3657 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost - side crude oil and coal prices were under pressure. The total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 82.2 tons, an increase of 1 ton from the previous period [4] - **主力动向**：Short - position main players increased their positions [4] - **走势预期**：Although the comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol has decreased, port inventories are still increasing and there are large - ship arrival plans in February, so the inventory accumulation expectation is hard to reverse. With weakening downstream polyester demand before the festival, there is a supply - demand imbalance. Considering the previous price trend, there is a certain support around 3600 yuan/ton, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Followed the sharp decline in oil prices, with an interval shock market [1] - PTA: Interval shock market [1] - MEG: Interval operation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is in a pre - holiday unilateral shock market, with fundamentals gradually weakening and entering a inventory accumulation pattern. Consider the long PX and short EB hedge [8] - PTA is in an interval shock market with a bearish monthly spread. Short when the processing fee is above 450. Pay attention to the support in the 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton interval [9] - MEG is in a unilateral interval shock market. The supply pressure is still high, but the downside space below 3600 yuan/ton is limited, and the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [10] 3. Key Points by Related Content Futures Market - **PX**: The closing price of the main contract was 7150, down 250 or 3.38% from the previous day. The PX5 - 9 spread closed at 20, up 4 from the previous day [2] - **PTA**: The closing price of the main contract was 5092, down 178 or 3.38% from the previous day. The PTA5 - 9 spread closed at - 8, up 4 from the previous day [2] - **MEG**: The closing price of the main contract was 3767, down 146 or 3.73% from the previous day. The MEG5 - 9 spread closed at - 104, up 1 from the previous day [2] - **PF**: The closing price of the main contract was 6484, down 172 or 2.58% from the previous day. The PF3 - 4 spread closed at - 48, up 8 from the previous day [2] - **SC**: The closing price of the main contract was 449, down 21.8 or 4.63% from the previous day. The SC2 - 3 spread closed at - 7.2, down 2 from the previous day [2] Spot Market - **PX**: The CFR China price was 891.67 dollars/ton, down 22.66 dollars from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread was 316.83 dollars/ton, down 8.17 dollars from the previous day [2] - **PTA**: The East China price was 5125 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan from the previous day. The processing fee was 485.25 yuan/ton, up 86.82 yuan from the previous day [2] - **MEG**: The spot price was 3712 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan from the previous day [2] - **Naphtha MOPJ**: The price was 581.38 dollars/ton, down 15.12 dollars from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread was - 4.34 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - **Dated Brent**: The price was 68.77 dollars/barrel, down 3.94 dollars from the previous day [2] Fundamental Data - **PX**: On February 2, the PX price fell. The 3 - month MOPJ was estimated at 571 dollars/ton CFR. The PX was estimated at 891 dollars/ton, down 22 dollars from last Friday. The domestic device start - up rate rose to 89.2%, and the Asian device start - up rate was 81.6% (+1%) [3][8] - **PTA**: A 100 - million - ton PTA device in the southwest is preparing to restart. The PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 76.6%. The polyester start - up rate is expected to be 88% in January, 80.5% in February, and 91% in March [3][9] - **MEG**: On February 2, the port inventory in some main ports in East China was about 89.7 million tons, an increase of 3.9 million tons from the previous period. The device start - up rate rose to 74.4% (+1.3%). The import volume from January to February will remain high, with a monthly average of over 70 million tons [3][10] Polyester Market - Two polyester devices in Shaoxing with a total of 40 million tons and two with a total of 55 million tons are planned to be shut down for maintenance starting from the 5th. A 20 - million - ton polyester device in Huzhou has been shut down for maintenance since the weekend [5] - In January, the average sales volume of domestic mainstream direct - spinning filament factories was estimated to be around 94%. On February 2, the sales volume of Jiangsu and Zhejiang filament was light, with an average sales volume estimated to be 2 - 30% by 3:30 pm. The average sales volume of direct - spinning staple fiber factories was 44% by 3:00 pm [5][6] Trend Strength - The trend strength of p - xylene is 0 - The trend strength of PTA is 0 - The trend strength of MEG is 0 [7]