化工日报 | 2025-10-10 市场分析 成本端，国庆节前油价偏强主要由地缘政治推动，主要聚焦在俄罗斯能源基础设施的遇袭情况，基本面依然偏弱。 从国庆节后的情况看，中国的进口需求放缓与美国出口增加形成明显剪刀差，叠加中东出口增加，供应过剩的矛 盾已经开始兑现。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN222美元/吨(环比变动+3.50美元/吨）。近期中国PX负荷陆续恢复至偏高负荷运行；随着 海外几套装置重启，PX开工整体走高，另外PX四季度检修计划推迟以及个别装置四季度扩能下PXN依然承压。同 时下游PTA工厂在效益大幅压缩后，新装置投产推迟和PTA工厂减产保价下检修计划增多，一定程度也影响市场心 态，PX四季度供需面预期明显弱化，下方支撑转弱，关注后续利润压缩下的检修情况。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -63 元/吨(环比变动+0元/吨），PTA现货加工费152元/吨（环比变动-35元/吨），主 力合约盘面加工费312元/吨（环比变动+6元/吨），PTA10~11月检修计划增多以及新装置投产推迟下累库幅度缩窄， 近端基本面好转，但新装置投产预期仍在，12月累库压力较大。市场现货供应较为充裕；节前备货下需求小幅提 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年10月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货跌后反弹，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差偏弱，贸易商商谈为主，个别聚酯工厂有递盘。本周及 下周货在01贴水58~65附近有成交，价格商谈区间在4470~4530附近。10月底在01贴水60有成交，个别略低。今日主流现货基差 在01-63。中性 6、预期：节后PTA现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差区间波动，部分PTA装置检修降幅叠加新装置投产推迟，PTA供需预期改善， 预计短期内现货价格仍跟随成本端震荡为主，关注下游产销及装置变动情况。 2、基差：现货4500，01合约基差-84，盘面升水 中性 3 ...

在发言交流环节，中基石化、远大物产、前程石化、中哲能化等产业客商及期货经营机构代表充分肯定 了月均价期货助力我国化工企业更精准管理价格风险的意义，对产品的推出表示期待。与会代表还围绕 月均价期货业务方案、现货贸易模式及痛点、化工期权应用等议题展开讨论，并提出相关意见建议。大 商所相关负责人就机构代表提出的问题进行了现场解答。 宁波市证券期货业协会有关负责人表示，将继续发挥好协会桥梁纽带作用，搭建交流平台，传递行业正 能量，不断深化服务实体经济内涵，积极联合证监会系统单位等多方力量，促进期现市场互联互通，营 造良好的产融结合发展环境。 本次交流会加深了产业客商和期货经营机构对相关期货期权业务的理解，为推动月均价期货等创新工具 平稳上市运行夯实了应用基础。同时对提升企业风险管理能力，促进宁波产业结构转型升级，助力期货 市场服务宁波实体经济高质量发展具有重要的意义。 期货日报网讯（记者 鲍仁）为保障线型低密度聚乙烯、聚氯乙烯和聚丙烯（以下简称"三个化工品"）月 均价期货平稳上市，进一步丰富塑料行业的风险管理工具，更好满足产业多样化的风险管理需要，9月 25日，由大连商品交易所（以下简称"大商所"）联合宁波市证券期货 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The report analyzes the mid - line trends, trading strategies, and relevant data of soda ash and glass futures. It suggests a wait - and - see approach for both soda ash and glass futures due to market uncertainties such as high supply, high inventory, and weak demand [6][29] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: Soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. The market is overall stable with partial price increases. Supply has minor fluctuations, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. Inventory is decreasing, but high supply and high inventory limit the rebound space. The short - term is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations [6] - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [6] Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The soda ash market continued narrow - range fluctuations last week. Supply was loose, demand was weak, and inventory was still high. The futures market declined with pressure on the fundamentals. It was expected that SA2601 would operate in the range of 1200 - 1350, and waiting and seeing was advisable [9] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The soda ash market was stable with partial small increases last week. Futures were in a strong - side volatile state. Macro and policy expectations provided support, but high supply and high inventory restricted the increase. SA2601 is expected to operate in the range of 1200 - 1350, and waiting and seeing is recommended [10] Relevant Data - The data includes China's weekly soda ash开工率, production, light - and heavy - type inventory, basis, and ammonia - soda process production cost in North China. The main force in the market is relatively bullish, funds are basically stable, and the risk of a market turn is relatively high [11][15][21] Group 3: Glass Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: Glass is in a volatile trend. The domestic float glass market was overall stable last week with regional price differences. Supply changed little, and terminal demand was weak. The futures market first fell, then rose, and then fell back. Continued upward momentum is restricted by insufficient spot follow - up [29] - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [29] Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The float glass market had narrow - range fluctuations last week. Some areas saw small price increases, but downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. The futures market first rose and then fell. It was expected that FG2601 would operate in the range of 1150 - 1300, and holding an empty position and waiting and seeing was advisable [32] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The float glass market showed regional differences last week. The futures market rebounded, but demand was still weak. Inventory performance varied. FG2601 is expected to operate in the range of 1150 - 1300, and holding an empty position and waiting and seeing is recommended [33] Relevant Data - The data covers China's weekly float glass production,开工率, production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis, and ending inventory. The main force in the market is strongly bullish, main funds are flowing in slightly, and the risk of a market turn is relatively high [34][38][49]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The polyolefin market saw a rally followed by a decline. From a fundamental perspective, the polyolefin spot market is still driven by supply and demand. Currently, PE inventory is being slowly digested, and PP inventory has also improved. After continuous declines, short - selling pressure has been released. With the stabilization of crude oil prices, it provides support for chemical products. The market also rebounded after continuous declines. In the short term, the recovery of terminal demand may support the market to oscillate and rebound. Future attention should be paid to the potential rebound after the market stabilizes and the situation of the Fed meeting this week [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - **LL Futures**: For the 1 - month contract, the previous day's closing price was 7234, up 2 from the day before with a 0.03% increase, trading volume was 256083, and open interest was 524036 with a decrease of 30939. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 41 (previous value - 20) [2]. - **PP Futures**: For the 1 - month contract, the previous day's closing price was 6970, up 4 from the day before with a 0.06% increase, trading volume was 324397, and open interest was 581302 with a decrease of 34852. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 30 (previous value - 22) [2]. Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: Methanol futures were at 2377 yuan/ton (previous value 2398), Shandong propylene was at 6575 yuan/ton (previous value 6600), South China propane was at 595 dollars/ton (unchanged), PP recycled materials were at 5600 yuan/ton (unchanged), and North China powder was at 6750 yuan/ton (previous value 6700) [2]. - **Spot Market**: LL in the East China market was priced at 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton (previous value 7150 - 7700), and PP in the East China market was priced at 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. News - On Tuesday (September 16), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.52 per barrel, up $1.22 or 1.93% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.47 per barrel, up $1.03 or 1.53% from the previous trading day [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the recent supply has returned, and with some major suppliers selling goods, the spot market liquidity is fair. The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the spot basis is gradually declining. PTA spot prices mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester upstream and downstream equipment and terminal demand [5]. - For MEG, the price center has fluctuated and declined at a high level. The near - term supply - demand remains tight, and the basis during the delivery period still has some support. However, with the advancement of new device production, the supply - demand in the far - month will turn loose, and the disk performance will be under pressure. Future device changes should be monitored [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 PTA - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis was weak. The September goods were negotiated at a discount of 75 - 85 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4590 - 4635. The mid - October goods were traded at 01 - 60. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 80 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4612, and the 01 contract basis is - 76, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.84 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, indicating a bullish signal [5]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Main positions**: The net short position is decreasing, still showing a bearish signal [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the ethylene glycol price center fluctuated and declined at a high level. The night - session ethylene glycol fluctuated upward, but the buying interest was limited. During the day, the ethylene glycol disk opened flat and then declined. The overall intention of traders to hold goods was weak, and the afternoon spot basis weakened to a premium of about 80 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In US dollars, the external market price of ethylene glycol corrected downward at a high level [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4382, and the 01 contract basis is 110, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a bullish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 37.24 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons compared to the previous period, indicating a bullish signal [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Main positions**: The net short position is increasing, showing a bearish signal [6]. 3.今日关注 - **Likely positive factors**: The average operating load of polyester devices has further increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. With the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's expectation of demand start is slightly reflected. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device is under maintenance and is expected to restart in November [10]. - **Likely negative factors**: The profit margins of all links in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [9]. - **Main logic and risk points**: In the short term, the commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored when the disk rebounds [9]. 4.基本面数据 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity has gradually increased. The supply - demand gap has fluctuated, with some months showing a supply surplus and others a supply shortage [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the total production and supply of ethylene glycol have changed, and the supply - demand gap has also fluctuated. The port inventory has also shown corresponding changes [12]. Other Data Analysis - **Price**: Multiple price - related charts of PTA, MEG, and PET bottle - chip are provided, including spot prices, production margins, basis, and inter - month spreads, showing the price trends from 2020 to 2025 [14][17][21][24][28][31][35][38]. - **Inventory**: Inventory - related charts of PTA, MEG, PET bottle - chip, and polyester products are presented, including factory inventory and port inventory, showing the inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [40][42][45][46][49]. - **Operating Rate**: Operating - rate - related charts of polyester upstream and downstream industries are provided, including the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, showing the operating rate trends from 2020 to 2025 [51][55]. - **Profit**: Profit - related charts of PTA, MEG, and polyester products are provided, including production margins of different production methods, showing the profit trends from 2022 to 2025 [60][61][64].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyolefin market rebounded from the bottom. The spot prices of linear LL remained stable for Sinopec and partially stable for PetroChina, while the spot prices of drawn PP remained stable for Sinopec and some were reduced by 100 by PetroChina. Fundamentally, the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply and demand. Currently, the PE inventory is being slowly digested, and the PP inventory has also improved. After continuous declines, the short - selling pressure has been released, and the stabilization of crude oil prices provides support for chemical products. The market may rebound after the stop - fall, and attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve meeting this week [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL and PP Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7232, 7252, and 7269 respectively, with increases of 63, 71, and 219 and increases of 0.88%, 0.99%, and 3.11% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6966, 6988, and 6967 respectively, with increases of 53, 52, and 180 and increases of 0.77%, 0.75%, and 2.65% respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 264026, 11216, and 49 respectively, and the open interests were 554975, 37371, and 19 respectively, with open - interest changes of - 6135, 1505, and 19 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 297850, 13616, and 288 respectively, and the open interests were 616154, 57544, and 279 respectively, with open - interest changes of - 27201, 2816, and 279 respectively [2] - **Spreads**: The current spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 20, - 17, and 37 respectively, compared with previous values of - 12, 131, and - 119. For PP, the current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 22, 21, and 1 respectively, compared with previous values of - 23, 149, and - 126 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2398 yuan/ton, 6600 yuan/ton, 595 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. Most of these prices remained unchanged compared with the previous values [2] - **Mid - stream Products**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton, 6700 - 6850 yuan/ton, and 6700 - 6900 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Monday (September 15), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.30 per barrel, up $0.61 or 0.97% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.52 - $63.67. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.44 per barrel, up $0.45 or 0.67% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.78 - $67.85 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR and suggests to focus on the Sheng Hong PX plant situation [5]. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, oil prices dropped significantly as Brent fell below $67 per barrel again due to OPEC considering further lifting production restrictions. The impact of the latest OPEC news on the oil market is more emotional, and the short - term direction of oil prices is unclear considering uncertainties like Russia - Ukraine peace talks. Naphtha has been strong recently due to supply disruptions and expected demand recovery [1][2]. - In the PX market, after the restart of Idemitsu's maintenance plant in early September and the future restart of Fuhai Chuang, the PX load at home and abroad is expected to rise. The PX balance sheet has shifted from destocking to a loose balance, and the floating price of near - month PX has weakened, but PXN has support at the bottom due to low inventory and new PTA plant demand [2]. - In the PTA market, the actual maintenance volume of Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton PTA plant is less than expected and may restart ahead of schedule, narrowing the destocking range in September. The spot basis has weakened, and the demand recovery is limited with insufficient order connections [3]. - In the demand aspect, the polyester operating rate is 90.3% (up 0.3% month - on - month). There are signs of demand recovery, but this week's order connections are insufficient, and the weaving and texturing loads have declined. The polyester load is expected to continue to rise steadily in the short term [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit is 117 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month). The load has increased as some previously reduced - production plants have resumed, and the overall supply - demand situation has improved with inventory destocking, but there is obvious wait - and - see sentiment [3]. - For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is 425 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan/ton month - on - month). The fundamentals have changed little, and the industry is expected to maintain a 20% production reduction target in September, with limited subsequent load increase and expected small fluctuations in processing fees [4]. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report shows TA and PX's main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber basis [11][12][14] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][22] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Covers toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan CFR naphtha spread, and PTA export profit [27][28] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Presents the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX operating rates in China and Asia [30][33][36] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Covers filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing operating rates [48][50][59] VII. PF Detailed Data - Contains polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn operating rates, production profits, and processing fees [70][80][82] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Includes polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot and export processing fees, export profit, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [89][91][104]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene arrivals are concentrated, while downstream CPL (Caprolactam) has fluctuating operations, and the CPL - PA6 - nylon industrial chain still faces significant inventory pressure. Aniline operations are weak, and there is still inventory pressure in its downstream MDI. Phenol operations have declined again, dragged down by bisphenol A. Only styrene operations remain strong, but subsequent styrene maintenance is expected to impact pure benzene demand [3]. - For styrene, port inventory slightly peaked and declined during the week, but the absolute inventory level remains high. Styrene operations remained at a high level this week, but with the gradual start of maintenance at Xinpu and Guangdong Petrochemical, operations are expected to peak and decline, and port inventory is expected to peak. Among styrene downstream products, EPS and ABS operations declined again, while PS operations continued to rise. Attention should be paid to downstream提货 performance during the peak season [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 105 yuan/ton (+5), and the pure benzene spot - M2 spread is - 25 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton). The styrene main contract basis is 50 yuan/ton (+30 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 129 dollars/ton (+2 dollars/ton), and FOB Korea processing fee is 113 dollars/ton (+2 dollars/ton). The pure benzene US - Korea spread is 38.5 dollars/ton (- 14.1 dollars/ton). Styrene non - integrated production profit is - 412 yuan/ton (- 2 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3.3 Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - Pure benzene port inventory is 14.90 million tons (+1.10 million tons). Styrene East China port inventory is 196,500 tons (+17,500 tons), and East China commercial inventory is 96,500 tons (+12,500 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage. Pure benzene downstream: caprolactam operating rate is 90.41% (+1.03%), phenol operating rate is 75.00% (- 1.00%), aniline operating rate is 67.96% (+0.41%), and adipic acid operating rate is 60.00% (- 3.20%). Styrene operating rate is 79.7% (+1.7%) [1]. 3.4 Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 285 yuan/ton (+25 yuan/ton), PS production profit is 15 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is - 52 yuan/ton (+4 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 52.52% (- 5.82%), PS operating rate is 61.00% (+1.10%), and ABS operating rate is 69.00% (- 1.80%) [2]. 3.5 Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit is - 1715 yuan/ton (- 15), phenol - acetone production profit is - 447 yuan/ton (+92), aniline production profit is - 99 yuan/ton (+117), and adipic acid production profit is - 1129 yuan/ton (- 23) [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - hedge pure benzene and styrene at high prices. - Basis and inter - period: Observe. - Cross - variety: Observe [4].

Group 1 - PTA futures have significantly declined, with the main contract reported at 4656.00 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.06% [1] - As of September 3, 2025, the average processing range for PTA in China is 189.82 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 21.32% and a year-on-year decrease of 40.68% [2] - The current PTA production capacity utilization rate is 70.86%, down 5.36% from the previous week, with domestic PTA output at 1.3129 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from the previous week [3] Group 2 - According to Nanhua Futures, the overall sentiment in commodities is weak, with high oil prices retreating and PX-TA prices following suit. The structural contradictions between PX and TA are expected to dominate the market, maintaining a "tight up and loose down" pattern [4] - Hualian Futures notes that supply pressure has eased due to significant maintenance at large facilities in South and East China, while polyester operating rates remain stable. However, the replenishment of polyester filament shows moderate performance, focusing on consuming existing raw material inventories [4]