交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年11月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 PTA： 1、基本面：周五，个别主流供应商有出货，11月在01贴水60~70附近商谈成交，个别略高，价格商谈区间在4565~4660附近。12 月中上在01-55有成交，12月底在01-43有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-63。中性 2、基差：现货4575，01合约基差-63，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.81天，环比减少0.16天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：随着PTA供应减量较预期增加、聚酯负荷坚挺且印度BIS取消提振PTA出口需求， PTA累库预期扭转，不排除阶段性去 库，PTA现货基差或得到支撑。不过绝对价格仍跟随成本端运行，关注装置变 ...

甲醇产业期现日报 Z0003135 张晓珍 甲醇价格及价差 | 品相 | 11月14日 | 11月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2601 收盘价 | 2022 | 2103 | -48.00 | -2.28% | | | MA2605 收盘价 | 2163 | 2208 | -45.00 | -2.04% | | | MA15价差 | -108 | -105 | -3.00 | 2.86% | | | 太仓基差 | -35 | -29 | -6.00 | 20.69% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 1995 | 2005 | -10.00 | -0.50% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2050 | 2060 | -10.00 | -0.49% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2035 | 2075 | -40.00 | -1.93% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 40 | 70 | -30.00 | -42.86% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-洛阳 | -15 | 15 | -30.00 ...

2025 年 11 月 17 日 对二甲苯：中期偏强，正套 PTA：成本支撑偏强 MEG：供应压力边际缓解，但反弹高度或有限 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | | --- | | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6806 | 4700 | 3922 | 6238 | 459.5 | | 涨跌 | -30 | 0 | 30 | 14 | 6.6 | | 涨跌幅 | -0.44% | 0.00% | 0.77% | 0.22% | 1.46% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -26 | -62 | -91 | -48 | -0.9 | | 前日收盘价 | -8 | -54 | -86 | -46 | 2.6 | | 涨跌 | -18 | -8 | -5 | -2 | -3. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: Affected by the cancellation of India's BIS certification for PTA and the news of PX blending demand in the market, the PX futures market rose at the end of the session, and PTA followed suit. The PTA futures closed slightly higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis fluctuated within a range. It is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost side in the short term, and attention should be paid to the changes in the device [6]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol rebounded from a low level on Thursday, and the market negotiation was average. The port inventory of ethylene glycol this week has rebounded to around 660,000 tons, and the arrival of foreign ships in the middle of the month is still concentrated. It is expected to be mainly in shock consolidation, with obvious pressure on the upper side [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content found 3.2 Daily Tips - No relevant content found 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant content found 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Fundamental Data** - Spot price: 4,565, 01 contract basis -135, the futures price is higher than the spot price, neutral [7]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 3.97 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared with the previous period, bullish [7]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, bullish [7]. - Main position: Net long, changing from short to long, bullish [7]. - **MEG Fundamental Data** - Spot price: 3,943, 01 contract basis 51, the spot price is higher than the futures price, neutral [10]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 622,000 tons, an increase of 57,000 tons compared with the previous period, bearish [10]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, bearish [10]. - Main position: The main net long position is decreasing, bullish [9]. 3.5 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity shows an increasing trend, with a total increase of about 1.41 million tons. PTA production and demand also show certain fluctuations, and the inventory at the end of the period also changes accordingly [12]. 3.6 Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the total production and supply of ethylene glycol show an overall increasing trend, and the consumption also shows a certain upward trend. The port inventory also fluctuates [13]. 3.7 Price - The report presents the price trends of PET bottle chips, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spread, MEG basis, spot spread, etc. from 2021 to 2025 through charts [15][25][32] 3.8 Inventory Analysis - The report shows the inventory trends of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fiber through charts, including factory inventory and port inventory [42][44][47] 3.9 Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up - The report shows the start - up rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester, and textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions from 2021 to 2025 through charts [54][56][58] 3.10 Profit - The report shows the profit trends of PTA processing, MEG production, and polyester fiber production from 2022 to 2025 through charts [60][63][65]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The cost side shows that oil prices are fluctuating, with the market trading around the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine and the news of OPEC+ production increase in December. The PXN is supported by polyester start - up but its rebound space is limited due to high - level PX operation and capacity expansion. The PTA processing fee is expected to improve in the long - term, but the 01 contract still has inventory accumulation pressure. The polyester start - up rate is 91.3% (down 0.4% month - on - month), and the load in November is expected to remain around 91%. The fundamentals of PF are okay, and the processing difference is maintained. The bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The figures include TA main contract & basis & inter - period spread trends, PX main contract trends & basis & inter - period spread, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][10] Upstream Profits and Spreads - The figures involve PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][18] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The figures cover toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25] Upstream PX and PTA Startup - The figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [26][29][30] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The figures display PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, and other inventory and warehouse receipt data [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - The figures include filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, and other data related to downstream polyester load [47][49][50] PF Detailed Data - The figures present data such as polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, and 1.4D equity inventory [69][70] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, and other detailed data of PR [88][94]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PX is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term due to overseas blending demand supporting aromatics valuation, with a high domestic plant operating rate, and attention should be paid to the impact of sanctions on short - process plant operations [9]. - PTA price will be in a strong - side oscillating market, with processing fees sold short on rallies. The supply reduction due to industry anti - involution is attracting attention, and the future inventory build - up pattern is clear [9]. - MEG has a large supply pressure with rising inventory, showing a weak unilateral trend, and month - spread should be reverse - arbitraged on rallies [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX futures prices on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange have risen significantly day by day. Although the morning session increase was nominal, PX and PTA futures prices rose sharply in the afternoon session. The physical PX market activity is light [2][3]. - The contango between December and January has further widened. The PTA demand may slow down slightly, affecting the near - term PX purchase interest [5]. - A 100 - million - ton PTA plant in the southwest was shut down for maintenance last weekend as planned and is expected to restart in December [5]. - From November 3rd to November 9th, the average daily shipments of MEG in a major warehouse in Zhangjiagang were about 4,500 tons, and about 6,000 tons in two major warehouses in Taicang [5]. - The MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China is about 661,000 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous period [6]. - Two 30 - million - ton polyester bottle - chip plants in South China were shut down for maintenance today and are expected to restart in late December. A 60 - million - ton polyester bottle - chip plant in East China is planned to restart this weekend [6]. - The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber are highly differentiated, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 72% as of 3:00 pm [6]. - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are generally weak, with an estimated average sales - to - production ratio of just over 30% as of 3:30 pm [7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [8]. - PTA trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [8]. - MEG trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak trend [8]. Views and Suggestions - For PX, the overseas blending demand supports the aromatics valuation, and it is relatively strong in the short - term. The domestic plant operating rate reaches a new high, and the impact of sanctions on short - process plant operations needs continuous attention [9]. - For PTA, the market focuses on supply reduction due to anti - involution, with a strong - side oscillating price. Processing fees should be sold short on rallies. The future inventory build - up pattern is clear, and positive spreads have limited upward space [9]. - For MEG, with inventory rising to 660,000 tons, the supply pressure is large, showing a weak unilateral trend. Month - spreads should be reverse - arbitraged on rallies. Multiple domestic plants have different operating statuses, and the supply pressure will increase from mid - November [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Under the expectation of anti-involution, PTA fluctuates strongly. The oil price fluctuates, and the market trades around the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine and the news of OPEC+ production increase in December. In November, there are many maintenance plans for PTA, so the pressure of inventory accumulation is not great. However, after December, as demand weakens, the pressure of inventory accumulation will gradually emerge. In the long term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve, but the spot supply in the market is relatively abundant, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited. The polyester start-up rate is 91.3% (down 0.4% month-on-month). The domestic sales orders have improved significantly since late October. The inventory of polyester factories is not high, and the polyester load is expected to remain around 91% in November. The fundamentals of PF are okay, and the processing difference is maintained. For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the raw material price fluctuations [1][2][3] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - It includes the TA main contract, basis, and inter-period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter-period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short fiber 1.56D*38mm semi-gloss natural white basis [7][8][10] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It covers the PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][18] III. International Spreads and Import-Export Profits - It involves the toluene US-Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start-up - It includes the start-up rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX start-up rates in China and Asia [26][29][30] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It contains the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [33][36][37] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - It includes the sales volume of filament and short fiber, polyester load, direct-spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, inventory days of filament factories, and the start-up rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [44][46][56] VII. PF Detailed Data - It covers the load of polyester staple fiber, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, load of recycled cotton-type staple fiber, spread between original and recycled fibers, start-up rates of pure polyester yarn and polyester-cotton yarn, and their production profits and processing fees [66][67][75] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It includes the load of polyester bottle chips, bottle chip inventory days of bottle chip factories, spot processing fee of bottle chips, export processing fee of bottle chips, export profit of bottle chips, spread between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A-grade white bottle chips, and the month-on-month spreads of bottle chips [83][85][95]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: One star, representing a bullish bias, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Methanol: One star, representing a bearish bias, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Pure Benzene: One star, representing a bullish bias, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Styrene: Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Polypropylene: One star, representing a bearish bias, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Plastic: One star, representing a bearish bias, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - PVC: One star, representing a bearish bias, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Caustic Soda: No stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading floor [1] - PX: Three stars, representing a bullish trend [1] - PTA: No stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Ethylene Glycol: One star, representing a bearish bias, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Short Fiber: No stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Glass: Three stars, representing a bullish trend [1] - Soda Ash: No stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Bottle Chip: Three stars, representing a bullish trend [1] - Propylene: One star, representing a bullish bias, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Views - The overall chemical industry shows a complex situation with different trends in various sub - sectors. Some products are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as cost, inventory, and downstream demand [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose slightly, with improved short - term demand but overall supply remaining loose [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures were weak. Demand is expected to decline slightly, and supply pressure is hard to ease [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices were in a low - level shock. There are short - term consolidations and medium - term negatives. Attention should be paid to port inventory accumulation [3] - Styrene futures were narrowly sorted. It maintains a tight supply - demand balance, but there are concerns about future supply and demand [3] Polyester - PX supply increased, PTA load decreased, and polyester load slightly increased. There are uncertainties in the mid - term demand and production reduction rhythm [5] - Hexanediol supply has a large growth pressure, and the mid - term demand is weak [5] - Short fiber has a good spot pattern, but the profit is slightly squeezed. The demand will weaken in mid - to late November [5] - Bottle chip demand fades, with over - capacity as a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol may continue to be weak in the short term, but it is easily affected by positive news due to low valuation [6] - Urea's upward momentum is insufficient, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC is in a pattern of high supply and weak demand, and may run at a low level [7] - Caustic soda is running weakly, and attention should be paid to cost and profit changes [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is oscillating strongly in the short term, but a high - supply pattern remains in the long term [8] - Glass prices are under pressure, but the decline space is limited due to low valuation and cost support [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral trend is moderately strong in the medium term [1] - PTA: Supply pressure persists, high - level volatile market, backwardation in calendar spreads [1] - MEG: Supply pressure remains high, trend is weak [1] Core Views - PX: The unilateral trend is strong. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA/MEG. Despite the restart of some devices and the high operating rate, the cost support and demand factors make the unilateral strong pattern clear [5]. - PTA: With positive demand feedback and cost support, it should be regarded as unilaterally strong. Although the inventory accumulation in November narrows, the supply is still in excess after some device overhauls end, and the processing fee may continue to be under pressure [6]. - MEG: It is short - term oscillating weakly. The supply pressure persists, and it is recommended to maintain the backwardation operation in calendar spreads. Although the supply pressure eases slightly in the short term, it remains in the long term [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - A 300,000 - ton/year polyester bottle - chip device in the southwest has been shut down for maintenance since early November, with a total of 600,000 tons of production shut down at the factory [3]. - The price increase in the previous trading day was mainly driven by increased stock market activity. The sudden increase in market activity may be due to the entry of external funds [3]. - The PX market is currently quite stable fundamentally, and there is no obvious weakness in the short term. The main support for PX comes from China's higher PTA production capacity, especially from new factories launched this year [3]. - Formosa Chemicals & Fiber Corp. restarted its 720,000 - ton/year PX production line in Mailiao on November 4 after completing the planned turnaround, and has been operating at about 70% capacity since then. A 350,000 - ton/year production line has been shut down since early April for planned turnaround [5]. Futures Price and Spread Data | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX Main | 6780 | - 40 | - 0.59% | | PTA Main | 4664 | - 24 | - 0.51% | | MEG Main | 3942 | 18 | 0.46% | | PF Main | 6214 | - 30 | - 0.48% | | SC Main | 460.6 | 0.2 | 0.04% | | Calendar Spread | Yesterday's Closing Price | Previous Day's Closing Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX1 - 5 | 0 | 14 | - 14 | | PTA1 - 5 | - 64 | - 62 | - 2 | | MEG1 - 5 | - 77 | - 80 | 3 | | PF12 - 1 | - 38 | - 34 | - 4 | | SC11 - 12 | 0.9 | 1 | - 0.1 | | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China ($/ton) | 825.67 | 826 | - 0.33 | | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | 4572 | 4540 | 32 | | MEG Spot | 4013 | 3978 | 35 | | Naphtha MOPJ | 581.75 | 575.75 | 6 | | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | 63.61 | 63.66 | - 0.05 | | Spot Processing Fee | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 250.25 | 238.5 | 11.75 | | PTA Processing Fee | 120.65 | 141.93 | - 21.29 | | Short - Fiber Processing Fee | 259.02 | 267.68 | - 8.66 | | Bottle - Chip Processing Fee | 54.06 | 99.6 | - 45.54 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | - 4.34 | - 4.34 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 (neutral) - PTA trend intensity: 0 (neutral) - MEG trend intensity: - 1 (weakly bearish) [5] Supply and Demand Analysis PX - Supply: Fushun Petrochemical and Formosa Plastics' devices restarted, and the domestic and Asian PX operating rates reached new highs. Yulong Petrochemical was sanctioned, resulting in weak MX prices. Although the short - process profit is strong, the operating rate has not actually recovered [5]. - Demand: Some PTA devices were shut down or had reduced loads, and the PTA load declined. The stock prices of polyester leaders rose sharply, but the actual probability of production reduction is low [5]. PTA - Supply: Some factories without supporting facilities reduced their loads, and the inventory accumulation in November narrowed. After the overhaul of some devices such as Xin凤鸣 ended, the supply was still in excess [6]. - Demand: The polyester load remained high (91.5% in November), and the rigid demand for PTA was acceptable [6]. MEG - Supply: The overall operating rate of MEG declined this week, with multiple devices shut down or reducing loads. However, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 800,000 - ton device is about to restart, and the long - term supply pressure remains due to concentrated imports [6]. - Demand: Downstream weaving orders weakened locally, and the operating rate declined. However, the polyester load remained high in the short term, providing some demand support [6]. Valuation and Strategy - PX: The PXN spread has risen to a high level, and producers can hedge at high prices. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA/MEG [5]. - PTA: The processing fee of the 01 contract has reached a new low of 219 Yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee is 173 Yuan/ton. The processing fee may continue to be under pressure [6]. - MEG: It is recommended to maintain the backwardation operation in calendar spreads [6].

Group 1: Price Information - North America CFR ethylene price on November 6, 2021, was $557.50 per ton, up 0.30% from the previous day [1] - East Asia CFR naphtha price on November 6, 2021, was $41.00 per barrel, unchanged from the previous day [1] - East China ex - factory price of ethylene oxide was 6000 yuan per ton on November 6, 2021, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Inner Mongolia含税褐煤 price was 290 yuan per ton on November 6, 2021, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Futures contract prices and settlement prices for various products on November 6, 2021, with different price changes [1] - East China market price of ethylene glycol was 3900 yuan per ton on November 6, 2021, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Near - far price difference and basis difference information for different products on November 6, 2021 [1] - Comprehensive price index of ethylene glycol was 63.74 on November 6, 2021, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Operating conditions of oil - based and coal - based ethylene glycol production on November 6, 2021 [1] - Industrial chain load rates of PTA plants and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms on November 6, 2021 [1] - External market prices of oil - based ethylene glycol in the US on November 5, 2021 [1] - After - tax gross profit of different production methods on November 6, 2021 [1] - Price indices of polyester products such as polyester fiber, polyester ester, and polyester short - fiber on November 6, 2021 [1] Group 2: Industry News - A 90,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol unit in Inner Mongolia is expected to start up and produce materials this month after initial maintenance [1]