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化工日报:原料价格下跌,PF和PR加工费上涨-20251010
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:48
化工日报 | 2025-10-10 市场分析 成本端,国庆节前油价偏强主要由地缘政治推动,主要聚焦在俄罗斯能源基础设施的遇袭情况,基本面依然偏弱。 从国庆节后的情况看,中国的进口需求放缓与美国出口增加形成明显剪刀差,叠加中东出口增加,供应过剩的矛 盾已经开始兑现。 PX方面,上上个交易日PXN222美元/吨(环比变动+3.50美元/吨)。近期中国PX负荷陆续恢复至偏高负荷运行;随着 海外几套装置重启,PX开工整体走高,另外PX四季度检修计划推迟以及个别装置四季度扩能下PXN依然承压。同 时下游PTA工厂在效益大幅压缩后,新装置投产推迟和PTA工厂减产保价下检修计划增多,一定程度也影响市场心 态,PX四季度供需面预期明显弱化,下方支撑转弱,关注后续利润压缩下的检修情况。 TA方面,TA主力合约现货基差 -63 元/吨(环比变动+0元/吨),PTA现货加工费152元/吨(环比变动-35元/吨),主 力合约盘面加工费312元/吨(环比变动+6元/吨),PTA10~11月检修计划增多以及新装置投产推迟下累库幅度缩窄, 近端基本面好转,但新装置投产预期仍在,12月累库压力较大。市场现货供应较为充裕;节前备货下需求小幅提 ...
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-9-30)-20250930
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 05:48
Group 1: Black Industry - Investment Rating: Adjustment - Core View: After the National Day, the trading focus will gradually shift to reality. The supply - demand patterns of iron ore, coal - coke, and steel products face challenges, while glass has short - term sentiment - driven fluctuations and long - term industry adjustment pressures [2] - Directory Summary: - Iron Ore: Overseas supply is rising, and although demand is currently okay, the supply - demand pattern is weakening. The main iron ore futures price has declined from its high. The 2601 contract is in high - level adjustment [2] - Coal - Coke: Coal supply is abundant, and the difficulty of price support for coking coal will increase. Coke price hikes are expected to be implemented, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. The coke market follows coking coal, and attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: The supply - demand pattern of rebar is average, with weak downstream performance. The steel price is under pressure again. To reach the normal seasonal inventory level, production needs to decline by about 10000 tons. The 2601 contract is in weak shock operation [2] - Glass: The industry was called to raise prices, which may stimulate pre - holiday restocking. In the long run, the real estate industry is in adjustment. Attention should be paid to production and policy changes during the holiday [2] Group 2: Financial Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including shock, rebound, etc.) - Core View: The market is affected by policies and economic data. The stock index market has different trends, and the bond market is under pressure. Gold shows a relatively strong shock trend [3][4] - Directory Summary: - Stock Index Futures/Options: The stock index market has different trends. The Politburo meeting emphasized high - quality development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. The new policy financial tools may boost investment. It is recommended to control risk preferences [3][4] - Treasury Bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has risen, and the market interest rate has fluctuated. Treasury bond bulls should hold lightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing. Factors such as central bank gold purchases, currency credit issues, and geopolitical risks support the price. It is expected to be in a relatively strong shock [4] Group 3: Light Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including range shock, consolidation, etc.) - Core View: The supply - demand situations of different products in the light industry are different, and the price trends are also diverse [5] - Directory Summary: - Logs: The supply is tightening, the cost support is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be in range shock [5] - Pulp: The cost support is increasing, but the demand is not strong. It is expected to be in bottom - level consolidation [5] - Offset Paper: The production is relatively stable, the demand is expected to improve, but the profit is low. It is expected to be in shock [5] Group 4: Oil and Fat Industry - Investment Rating: Wide - range shock, shock - bearish - Core View: The supply - demand relationships of oils and fats are complex, affected by factors such as production, policy, and inventory. The supply of meal products is relatively loose [5] - Directory Summary: - Oils: The supply pressure of palm oil is increasing, but there are also factors such as production reduction and policy changes. The supply of domestic soybean oil is abundant. It is expected that oils will be in wide - range shock [5] - Meal Products: The supply of domestic soybean meal is loose, and the export of US soybeans is weak. It is expected that meal products will be in shock - bearish trend [5] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Investment Rating: Shock - strong, shock - weak - Core View: The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the demand has short - term fluctuations. The price is expected to be in short - term weak shock [6] - Directory Summary: - Live Pigs: The average trading weight is declining, the demand for pre - holiday stocking is increasing, but the sales pressure is also rising. The price is expected to be in short - term weak shock [6] Group 6: Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including shock, wait - and - see, etc.) - Core View: The supply - demand situations of soft commodities and polyester products are complex, and the price trends are different [7][8] - Directory Summary: - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be in wide - range shock [8] - PX: There are potential supply risks, and the supply - demand is decreasing. The price follows oil prices [8] - PTA: The cost support may weaken, and the supply - demand is marginally weakening. The price follows cost fluctuations [8] - MEG: The supply pressure is increasing, and the short - term price is affected by cost fluctuations [8] - PR: The market trading is expected to be dull, and the price is expected to be stable [8] - PF: The cost support may weaken, and the market may have narrow - range consolidation [8]
临近假期,聚酯产业链震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 05:15
Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [4] Core View of the Report - Near the holiday, the polyester industry chain is oscillating. The cost - end oil price has rebounded, and geopolitical factors need to be continuously monitored. The supply - demand situation of PX in the fourth quarter is expected to weaken, and the support at the bottom has weakened. The near - end fundamentals of TA have improved, but there is still a large inventory accumulation pressure in December. The demand for polyester has improved marginally, but the high - level increase in polyester load is limited. The short - term supply - demand situation of PF is better than that of the raw material end, and the processing fee of PR is expected to oscillate in a range [1][2][4] Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - Relevant charts include TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Relevant charts cover PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Relevant charts involve toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profits [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Relevant charts show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant charts present PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt inventories of PX, PTA, and PF [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Relevant charts cover the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, factory inventory days of various filaments, and the operating rates of textile, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [48][50][61] Detailed PF Data - Relevant charts include the load of polyester staple fiber, inventory days, the load of recycled cotton - type staple fiber, the spread between raw and recycled fibers, and the operating rates and profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [73][74][84] Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Relevant charts involve the load of polyester bottle chips, factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profits, and inter - month spreads [94][96][103]
液化石油气(LPG)投资周报:国庆前后地缘扰动频繁,PG价格高位回落-20250929
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating bearish" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, PG prices have fallen from high levels. The upstream PG fundamentals lack obvious drivers and tend to be weak. The supply - demand of propylene in the intermediate link is under pressure, and the short - term demand for PP is saturated with a shutdown expectation in the later period. The PDH profit is expected to decline further. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts in the market, macro and geopolitical risks [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures declined, with a fluctuation range of 4230 - 4490 yuan/ton. In the first half of the week, the international crude oil price dropped, suppressing the market trend. Both domestic and foreign spot prices fell, and the sentiment of market participants was weak, leading to a rapid decline in the market. However, the domestic propane demand increased month - on - month, the combustion demand improved successively, and the demand expectation increased. In the second half of the week, the crude oil price rebounded, and the market rebounded slightly after reaching the bottom [5] 3.2 Domestic LPG Delivery Product Spot Price and Basis - **Spot Price**: In different regions, the prices of civil gas, imported gas, and ether - post - C4 have different changes. For example, in the East China region, the average price of civil gas decreased by 0.50% week - on - week; in the South China region, the price of Maoming civil gas remained unchanged week - on - week [7] - **Basis**: The weekly average basis in East China was 126.80 yuan/ton, in South China was 357.80 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 301.80 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts increased by 1353 to 14327 lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4] 3.3 LPG Futures Price, Inter - month Spread, and Cross - month Spread - **Futures Price**: The prices of different LPG futures contracts (PG01 - PG12) showed different degrees of decline compared with the previous week and month. For example, PG01 decreased by 4.36% week - on - week and 1.83% month - on - month [8] - **Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spreads (such as PG01 - PG02, PG02 - PG03, etc.) also had different changes compared with the previous week and month. For example, the spread of PG01 - PG02 decreased by 6.06% week - on - week and increased by 3.33% month - on - month [8] - **Cross - month Spread**: The cross - month spreads (such as PG01 - PG03, PG02 - PG04, etc.) also showed different trends. For example, the spread of PG01 - PG03 decreased by 6.04% week - on - week and 4.76% month - on - month [8] - **Arbitrage**: There are month - to - month and cross - month arbitrage strategies. For example, in month - to - month arbitrage, the spread between PG2511 and PG2512 was 7.9 on the day, and the z - score was 1.7318 [8] 3.4 Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - **Main Refineries**: Many main refineries in China have device maintenance plans in 2025, including full - plant maintenance and partial device maintenance of some refineries such as Beihai Refining and Chemical, Hainan Refining and Chemical, etc. [9] - **Local Refineries**: Local refineries in Shandong, Northeast, Central China, and Northwest regions also have corresponding device maintenance plans, such as the full - plant maintenance of Shenchi Chemical, Xin泰 Petrochemical, etc. [9] 3.5 LPG Production Device and PDH Device Maintenance Plan - **LPG Production Device**: Some LPG production enterprises in China have device maintenance plans in 2025, such as Zhenghe Petrochemical, Huaxing Petrochemical, etc. [10] - **PDH Device**: Some PDH devices in China are in normal operation, while some are in shutdown or maintenance. For example, Qingdao Jinneng Phase I is in shutdown for maintenance, and it is expected to restart on October 1st [11] 3.6 Fundamental Factors Affecting LPG - **Supply**: Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 539,200 tons. The commercial volume of civil gas was 211,200 tons (a decrease of 4.76%), industrial gas was 212,500 tons (a decrease of 0.75%), and ether - post - C4 was 170,130 tons (a decrease of 1.64%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 650,000 tons. A refinery in Shandong plans to conduct maintenance this week, and some enterprises will reduce production, so the domestic commercial volume is expected to decline [4] - **Demand**: The combustion demand is gradually coming to an end, and the traditional peak - season logic is weakening. In the deep - processing of C4, affected by new energy substitution, the gasoline demand is weakening. The profit of MTBE is inverted, but the operating rate is high. The profit of alkylated gasoline has turned from profit to loss, and the loss of isobutane dehydrogenation profit is relatively deep. The ether - post - market may fall and stabilize. In the deep - processing of C3, the utilization rate of PDH production capacity is expected to decline. After the National Day, the operating rate may drop below 65%. The price of propylene in the intermediate link has fallen, and the terminal PP demand is saturated. The PDH device has shown continuous losses from propylene to PP, and the profit negative feedback effect has emerged [4] - **Inventory**: Last week, the factory inventory of LPG was 188,100 tons (an increase of 4.33%), and the port inventory was 3.1366 million tons (a decrease of 3.01%). The storage capacity utilization rate of the domestic LPG market increased last week. The inventory reduction in Northeast, Shandong, and Central China was relatively smooth through price concessions, but affected by adverse factors such as typhoon extreme weather and supply increase, the inventory in East China, South China, North China, and the West continued to increase. At the port, the arrival of ships decreased, and the replenishment of imported resources was insufficient [4] - **Basis and Position**: The weekly average basis in East China was 126.80 yuan/ton, in South China was 357.80 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 301.80 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 14,327 lots, an increase of 1,353 lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4] - **Chemical Downstream**: The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 69.48%, 58.35%, and 45.51% respectively. The profit of PDH to propylene was - 349 yuan/ton, the profit of MTBE isomerization was - 90 yuan/ton, and the profit of alkylation in Shandong was - 13 yuan/ton [4] - **Valuation**: The PG - SC ratio was - 2.47%, and the spread between PG continuous first and continuous second months was 79 yuan/ton. The continuous increase in crude oil production has dragged down the cost section, and the PG - SC cracking spread has continued to strengthen [4] - **Other Factors**: Crude oil is in a fundamental surplus expectation caused by geopolitical factors, sanctions, and OPEC+ production increase, and maintains range - bound trading. The non - farm payrolls data in the United States in August was lower than market expectations, with an increase in the number of unemployed people, a month - on - month decline in PPI and CPI, and economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and it is expected to cut interest rates by 50bp or more within the year. Geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East are frequently disturbed in the short term and tend to be tense [4] 3.7 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment View**: The upstream PG fundamentals lack obvious drivers and tend to be weak. The supply - demand of propylene in the intermediate link is under pressure, and the short - term demand for PP is saturated with a shutdown expectation in the later period. The PDH profit is expected to decline further. Overall, in the short - term, PG prices have fallen from high levels, and the profit negative feedback effect of downstream PDH is prominent [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, the strategies include going long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, going long on PP2601 and short on PG2601, and going long on SC and short on PG [4]
化工周报:节前补库需求边际改善,关注持续性-20250928
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 09:44
化工周报 | 2025-09-28 节前补库需求边际改善,关注持续性 核心观点 策略 单边:PX/PTA/PF/PR短期中性,节前下游补库下需求边际好转,关注持续性,中期偏空。PX方面,近期中国PX 负荷陆续恢复至偏高负荷运行,同时国内部分PX装置四季度检修推迟至明年,以及个别装置四季度扩能,PX四季 市场分析 成本端,本周油价反弹,乌克兰对连续对俄罗斯境内发动袭击,受损目标涵盖能源生产、运输及军工制造等关键 领域。欧盟将新增制裁118艘属于"影子油轮船队"的船只。特朗普也威胁对俄加征关税。后续继续关注地缘局势发 展以及国庆期间的OPEC会议。 PX方面,本周中国 PX 开工率86.7%(环比上周+0.5%),亚洲 PX 开工率78%(环比上周-0.3%)。本周国内PX装 置负荷小幅提升,主要来自天津石化检修完毕重启,恒力石化本周末一条重整计划检修,但PX基本无影响。近期 中国PX负荷陆续恢复至偏高负荷运行;后续海外几套装置也有重启计划,开工整体走高,PX四季度检修计划推迟 以及个别装置四季度扩能下PXN依然承压。同时下游PTA工厂在效益大幅压缩后,新装置投产推迟和PTA工厂减产 保价下检修计划增多,一定程度 ...
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-9-24)-20250924
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 03:51
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating bullish [2] - Rebar and coil: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Adjusting [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillating [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebounding [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebounding [4] - Gold: Bullish [4] - Silver: Bullish [4] - Logs: Range - bound oscillating [5] - Pulp: Bottom - range consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Soybean oil: Oscillating bearish [5] - Palm oil: Oscillating bearish [5] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating bearish [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating bullish [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [11] - PX: On - the - sidelines [11] - PTA: Oscillating [11] - MEG: On - the - sidelines [11] - PR: On - the - sidelines [11] - PF: On - the - sidelines [11] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented as scheduled. After the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. Different industries have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][4]. - Market sentiment is affected by various factors such as policies, international relations, and economic data. It is recommended to control risk appetite and maintain the current position for stock index long positions [4]. 3. Summary by Industry Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Overseas supply has slightly declined, but the global shipping volume is still at a high level in recent years. The arrival volume at 47 ports has increased. The daily average pig iron output has rebounded, driving up demand. Steel mills' profit ratio has declined, but the motivation for active production cuts is still insufficient. The iron ore 2601 contract is adjusting at a high level [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The suspension news from coal mines and the increasing expectation of "anti - involution" have pushed up the double - coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and the "Golden September and Silver October" season has boosted demand. Some coke enterprises have initiated the first price increase [2]. - **Rebar and coil**: The Fed's interest rate cut and the coal mine suspension news have affected the market. The output of finished products has slightly decreased, but the supply remains high. The apparent demand for five major steel products has slightly increased, but the inventory pressure continues to rise. The real estate investment continues to decline, and the overall demand is weak. The cost increase has driven up the price of finished products, and the rebar 2601 contract is oscillating bullishly in the short term [2]. - **Glass**: The supply is stable, and the demand has limited growth. The downstream deep - processing factory orders have slightly improved. The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may affect the production cost. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold - repair path [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. There was capital inflow in the banking and precious metals sectors and outflow in the catering, tourism, and education sectors. The market is oscillating, and it is recommended to control risk appetite and maintain the current long - position for stock indexes [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased by 1bp. The market is oscillating, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - **Gold and silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting. The US debt problem, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks affect the price. The Fed's interest rate cut and geopolitical risks support the bullish trend of gold and silver [4]. Light Industry Products - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume at ports has decreased. The arrival volume from New Zealand has declined, and the cost support has weakened. The spot price is stable, and the futures delivery willingness has increased. It is expected to oscillate within a range [5]. - **Pulp**: The spot price is stable. The cost support has strengthened, but the demand improvement is uncertain. It is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5]. - **Double - gum paper**: The production is relatively stable, but it is in the downstream seasonal off - season. The industry has over - capacity, and it should be treated bearishly [5]. Oils and Fats - **Oils**: The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the inventory has risen. The export is weak. The US bio - fuel policy is controversial. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the inventory of soybean oil has increased. It is expected to oscillate bearishly [5][6]. - **Meals**: The yield of US soybeans has been adjusted, and the export demand is weak. The domestic supply pressure is significant, and the inventory of soybean meal is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate bearishly [6]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs may continue to rise slightly. The supply is abundant, the demand from the terminal market is weak, and the slaughter price has declined. The slaughter rate is expected to decline and then stabilize. The price is expected to oscillate bullishly in the short term [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply pressure in Yunnan has decreased, and the cost in Hainan has decreased. The demand from tire enterprises has increased, and the inventory has declined. The price is expected to oscillate widely [11]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX has potential supply risks; PTA's supply and demand have both increased, but the marginal supply - demand has weakened; MEG's supply pressure has increased; PR and PF are affected by geopolitical and cost factors. The market trends are complex, and some are recommended to be observed on the sidelines [11].
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-9-22)-20250922
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 03:20
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Sideways [2] - Glass: Sideways [2] - Soda ash: Rebound [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [2][4] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [2][4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bond Futures: Sideways [4] - 5-year Treasury Bond Futures: Sideways [4] - 10-year Treasury Bond Futures: Rebound [4] - Gold: High-level sideways [4] - Silver: High-level sideways [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish [6] - Soybean oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Palm oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Soybean meal: Bearish with sideways bias [6][7] - Soybean No. 2: Bearish with sideways bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Bearish with sideways bias [7] - Live pigs: Bullish with sideways bias [7] - Rubber: Sideways [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Sideways [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Sideways [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. The iron ore market is supported by increased global shipments and rising demand, while the coal and coke market rebounds due to production cuts and positive expectations. The rebar market faces high supply and low demand, with prices likely to fluctuate. The glass market is driven by fuel prices and macro sentiment, but the supply-demand contradiction remains. The financial market is affected by Sino-US relations and economic data, with stock index futures showing mixed trends and treasury bonds trending weakly [2][4]. - The precious metals market is influenced by central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks, with gold and silver prices expected to remain high and volatile. The forest products market shows different trends, with logs expected to range-bound, pulp to bottom consolidate, and offset paper to be bearish. The oil and fat market is affected by production, inventory, and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate widely. The agricultural products market shows mixed trends, with live pigs expected to be bullish with sideways bias and soybeans and related products to be bearish with sideways bias. The soft commodities market shows different trends, with rubber expected to be sideways and polyester products to show mixed trends [4][6][7][9]. Summary by Industry Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments increased to 35.731 million tons, with Australian and Brazilian shipments rising to 29.778 million tons. Demand rebounded as daily pig iron production remained high, and steel mills had pre-holiday restocking expectations. The iron ore 2601 contract broke through the previous high, showing a strong trend [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Production cuts at coal mines and increased "anti-involution" expectations drove the double-coke futures to rebound. Supply is likely to be weaker than last year, and demand increased as daily pig iron production remained high. The market is expected to be bullish with sideways bias [2]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Supply remained high while demand was weak, and inventory pressure increased. The market is expected to be sideways, with the rebar 2601 contract likely to fluctuate strongly in the short term [2]. Non-ferrous Metals - Glass: The glass futures were driven by rising fuel prices and improved macro sentiment. The supply-demand contradiction remained, but inventory reduction provided some confidence. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold repair path [2]. - Soda ash: The real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and the decline in housing completion area is significant. Attention should be paid to the improvement of real demand [2]. Financial Futures - Stock index futures: The market showed mixed trends, with the CSI 1000 Index Futures trending downward. Sino-US relations and economic data affected the market, and it is recommended to control risk appetite and reduce long positions in stock index futures [2][4]. - Treasury bond futures: The yield of the 10-year treasury bond increased, and the market trended weakly. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bond futures lightly [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Gold prices are influenced by central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks. The current upward trend logic remains, and prices are expected to remain high and volatile [4]. Forest Products - Logs: Port shipments increased slightly, and September arrivals are expected to be low. Inventory increased to around 3 million cubic meters. Spot prices were stable, and the market is expected to range-bound [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices were stable, and cost support increased. However, the paper industry's profitability was low, and demand was weak. Prices are expected to bottom consolidate [6]. - Offset paper: Production was stable, but it was in the downstream seasonal off-season, and demand was weak. The industry has overcapacity, and the market is expected to be bearish [6]. Oil and Fats - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: Palm oil production increased in August, and inventory rose. Domestic soybean oil inventory was high, but future imports are expected to decrease seasonally. The market is expected to fluctuate widely [6]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1: US soybean production increased, and domestic supply was abundant. Demand was weak, and prices are expected to be bearish with sideways bias [6][7]. - Live pigs: The average transaction weight increased, and slaughterhouse开工率 increased slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and prices may face some pressure [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply pressure decreased in Yunnan, and production increased in Hainan. Demand improved as tire factory capacity utilization increased. Inventory continued to decline, and prices are expected to be sideways [9]. - Polyester products: PX prices followed oil prices, and PTA supply and demand both increased. MEG supply pressure increased, and PR and PF prices are expected to fluctuate [9].
液化石油气(LPG)投资周报:利润负反馈效应凸显,PG价格震荡回落-20250922
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 03:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating bearish" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The upstream PG fundamentals lack obvious drivers. The intermediate - link propylene had good trading last week due to the previous cost increase and demand improvement, but PP faces saturated demand and the peak - season effect is weak, with poor price transmission efficiency. In the short term, PG shows a downward trend from its high level, and the negative feedback effect of downstream PDH profits is prominent. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts on the disk, as well as macro and geopolitical risks [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of the LPG futures fluctuated after rising, with an average price increase and a fluctuation range of 4430 - 4520 yuan/ton. The international market was strong, supporting the market trend, and the price reached a recent high. The domestic spot market was average, with both rises and falls, and the basis continued to weaken. In terms of demand, the chemical demand for propane slightly declined, but the combustion demand was expected to improve, and downstream enterprises replenished stocks, resulting in a decrease in production enterprise inventories. However, the arrival of ships increased, and port inventories rose. As of Thursday this week, the basis in East China was 2 yuan/ton, in South China was 150 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 70 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was priced in East China [5] 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total domestic LPG commercial volume was about 538,500 tons (a decrease of 0.20%). Among them, the commercial volume of civil gas was 201,600 tons (a decrease of 1.75%), industrial gas was 214,100 tons, and ether - after C4 was 182,600 tons (an increase of 0.76%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 650,000 tons. Some refineries increased self - use last week, and a plant in the Northwest resumed operation, so the supply slightly declined. A refinery in Shandong plans to conduct maintenance this week, but the plants of maintenance enterprises in the Northwest and other places continue to resume operation. It is expected that the domestic commercial volume may slightly increase [3] 3.3 Demand - The combustion demand is gradually coming to an end, and the traditional peak - season logic is fading. In the C4 deep - processing sector, affected by new - energy substitution, gasoline demand has weakened. The profit of MTBE is inverted but the operating rate is at a high level, the profit of alkylated gasoline has turned from profit to loss, the loss of isobutane dehydrogenation profit is relatively deep, and the ether - after market may decline and stabilize. In the C3 deep - processing sector, the utilization rate of PDH production capacity is relatively stable, and the operating rate remains at a medium - to - high level. The price of propylene in the intermediate link has declined, and the terminal PP demand is saturated. There are continuous losses from the PDH unit to the propylene and PP links, and a negative profit feedback effect has emerged [3] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was 180,300 tons (an increase of 0.67%), and the port inventory was 3,234,000 tons (an increase of 1.49%). The domestic LPG inventory varied last week. Affected by factors such as increased supply and weak demand in the West, Central China and other regions, the supply increased to some extent. In Shandong, North China, South China and other regions, the demand was stable, and manufacturers could control shipments, so the inventory pressure was relieved. At the ports, the number of arriving ships increased slightly. With the increase in imported resources and the decline in demand, the port inventory showed a trend of accumulation [3] 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was - 840 yuan/ton in East China, 1062 yuan/ton in South China, and 532 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 13,002 lots, a decrease of 1 lot, and the lowest deliverable area was Shandong [3] 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 64.58%, 55.81%, and 43.82% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 256 yuan/ton, - 200 yuan/ton, and - 90.50 yuan/ton respectively [3] 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was - 4.35%, and the PG continuous - first to continuous - second monthly spread was not available. Due to the continuous increase in crude - oil production and the drag on the cost side, the PG - SC cracking spread continued to strengthen [3] 3.8 Other Factors - In October, OPEC+ will start the second round of production - increase cycle, and the EIA weekly crude - oil inventory showed a significant decline. The US non - farm payrolls data in August was lower than market expectations, with an increase in the number of unemployed, a month - on - month decline in PPI and CPI, and an economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and it is expected that there will be two more interest - rate cuts this year. The geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East still tend to be tense, and the war may further escalate [3] 3.9 Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, the strategies are to go long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, go long on PP2601 and short on PG2601, and go long on SC and short on PG [3]
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-9-19)-20250919
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 02:11
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Rebounding [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward [3] - 2-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury Bond: Rebounding [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: High-level oscillation [3] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish outlook [6] - Edible oils: Wide-range oscillation [6] - Meal products: Oscillating with a bearish bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Wait-and-see [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day holiday, trading focus will gradually shift to the real situation. The short-term sentiment in the iron ore market has been boosted, and the supply of iron ore has returned. The fundamentals of iron ore in the short term have limited contradictions [2]. - The news of coal mine shutdowns and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly pushed up the double-coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and the demand for double-coke has rebounded [2]. - The production of finished steel products has slightly declined, but the supply remains at a relatively high level. The total demand is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance, and a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed [2]. - The rise of glass futures is mainly driven by the strengthening of upstream fuel prices and the warming of macro sentiment. The supply-demand contradiction in the glass market has not been substantially improved [2]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors [3]. - The supply pressure of logs is generally not large, and the daily average shipment volume has slightly increased. It is expected that logs will oscillate within a range [6]. - The price of pulp is expected to consolidate at the bottom. The double-offset paper industry is in a stage of overcapacity, with stable short-term supply and poor demand [6]. - After a previous sharp rise, edible oils may oscillate in a wide range in the short term. Meal products are expected to continue oscillating with a bearish bias [6]. - The average trading weight of live pigs has continued to rise slightly. The开工 rate of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, and the supply of large pigs has increased, which may put some pressure on prices [7]. - The supply pressure of natural rubber has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has continued to decline. The price of natural rubber may oscillate in a wide range [10]. - The supply and demand of PX and PTA have both increased, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The short-term prices will mainly fluctuate with costs [10]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: The global iron ore shipment volume has increased, and the supply has returned. The daily average pig iron output has slightly rebounded and remained at a high level, driving up the demand for iron ore. The short-term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions, and attention should be paid to whether the iron ore 2601 contract can stand firm at the previous high [2]. - **Coal and coke**: The news of coal mine shutdowns and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly pushed up the double-coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and the demand for double-coke has rebounded [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coil**: The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected. The production of finished steel products has slightly declined, but the supply remains at a relatively high level. The total demand is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance, and a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed. The short-term rebar 2601 contract will oscillate with a bullish bias, and attention should be paid to the inventory performance of rebar [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock market has generally declined. The inflow and outflow of funds in different sectors vary. It is recommended to control risk appetite and reduce long positions in stock indices [3]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has declined, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. The market interest rate fluctuates, and the trend of Treasury bonds is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [3]. - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and the Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors. Gold and silver are expected to maintain high-level oscillations [3]. Light Industry Products - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has slightly increased, and the supply pressure is generally not large. The inventory has rebounded to around the key threshold of 3 million cubic meters. The spot market price is running steadily, and it is expected that logs will oscillate within a range [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp has mainly declined. The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the demand improvement expectation remains to be verified. It is expected that the pulp price will consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Double-offset paper**: The spot market price of double-offset paper is running steadily. The industry is in a stage of overcapacity, with stable short-term supply and poor demand. The overall situation is bearish, and opportunities to short on rebounds should be sought [6]. Agricultural Products - **Edible oils**: After a previous sharp rise, edible oils may oscillate in a wide range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Meal products**: The new crop yield of US soybeans has increased, the export demand is weak, and the domestic supply pressure is significant. It is expected that meal products will continue oscillating with a bearish bias [6]. - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs has continued to rise slightly. The开工 rate of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, and the supply of large pigs has increased, which may put some pressure on prices. It is expected that the price of standard pigs may decline slightly under pressure, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs may widen slightly [7]. Soft Commodities - **Natural rubber**: The supply pressure of natural rubber has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has continued to decline. The price of natural rubber may oscillate in a wide range [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The supply and demand of PX and PTA have both increased, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The short-term prices will mainly fluctuate with costs. The inventory of MEG is expected to remain at a low level, and the market of polyester bottle chips is expected to continue oscillating and consolidating [10].
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-9-18)-20250918
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 03:02
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Rebound [2] - Glass: Bullish [2] - Soda ash: Rebound [2] - SSE 50 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index: Upward [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Soybean oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Palm oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating bearish [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating bullish [6] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Oscillating [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut landed as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. The market sentiment for various commodities has been affected by factors such as policy expectations, supply and demand changes, and cost fluctuations [2][3]. - The overall market shows a mixed trend, with different commodities having different investment outlooks, and investors need to pay attention to specific supply and demand situations and market factors of each commodity [2][3][4][5][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Global iron ore shipments increased, supply returned, and iron ore demand rebounded with the recovery of daily average hot metal production. The short - term fundamental contradictions of iron ore are limited, and attention should be paid to whether the 2601 contract can stand firm at the previous high [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by coal mine shutdown news and the "anti - involution" expectation, the coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and demand rebounded with the recovery of hot metal production [2]. - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: Supply will remain at a relatively high level, inventory pressure will continue to increase, and total demand is difficult to show an anti - seasonal performance. In the short term, the 2601 contract of rebar will oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to inventory performance [2]. - **Glass**: The rise of glass futures is driven by the strengthening of upstream fuel prices and the improvement of macro - sentiment. Although the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved, the inventory reduction process provides some confidence [2]. - **Soda ash**: Currently, the trading is about cold - repair, and the key lies in the cold - repair path. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and attention should be paid to the improvement of real demand [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market showed different trends. Multiple financial and electric power grid sectors had capital inflows, while precious metals and agriculture sectors had capital outflows. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indexes while controlling risk preferences [2][3]. - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates fluctuated, and the trend of treasury bonds was weak. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [3]. - **Precious metals**: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as the Fed's interest rate policy, geopolitical risks, and physical gold demand in China affect its price. Gold is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [4]. Light Industry - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports increased slightly, the supply pressure was not large, and the inventory was at a critical threshold. The cost - side support weakened, and it is expected to oscillate in a range [5]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price showed a differentiated trend, the cost support for pulp prices increased, but the demand improvement expectation remains to be verified. Pulp prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom [5]. - **Offset paper**: The spot market price was relatively stable, but the industry is in a stage of over - capacity, with stable short - term supply and poor demand. It should be treated bearishly [5]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils**: The supply pressure of palm oil in the producing areas increased, and the supply of domestic soybean oil may tighten in the future. Oils may oscillate widely in the short term after a previous sharp rise, and attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and the production and sales of palm oil in Malaysia [5][6]. - **Oilseeds and meals**: The total output of US soybeans increased, and the domestic supply pressure was significant. The demand was weak, and soybean meal is expected to continue to oscillate bearishly [6]. Agricultural Products Industry - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs increased slightly, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate increased. With the increase in the supply of large pigs, the support for the overall price weakened. The price of standard pigs may decline slightly, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs may widen slightly [6]. Soft Commodities Industry - **Rubber**: The supply - side pressure decreased, the demand - side capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory continued to decline. The price of natural rubber is expected to oscillate widely [8]. - **Polyester products**: PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF have different supply - demand situations and cost factors, and their market trends are mainly oscillating or in a wait - and - see state [8].