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芳烃橡胶早报-20251106
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 00:59
Report on Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Rubber 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **PTA**: Near - term TA partial device load reduction,开工 slightly decreased, polyester load increased, inventory slightly accumulated, basis strengthened, and spot processing fee slightly repaired. With PX domestic start - up rising and overseas maintenance implemented, PXN widened, disproportionation benefit weakened, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia shrank. In the future, TA's low processing fee has lasted for a long time, and the improvement of terminal data supports the continuation of polyester start - up. Pay attention to additional maintenance, and the processing fee center may gradually repair due to limited far - month production[10]. - **MEG**: Near - term domestic oil - based restart, load increased, overseas partial device restarted, port inventory decreased at the beginning of the week, and the arrival forecast increased during the week, basis weakened, and coal - based benefit and ratio decreased. In the long - term, due to high existing start - up and new device production, it will enter a continuous inventory accumulation stage, with a bearish long - term pattern. However, after the weakening of coal - based benefit and ratio, there may be partial negative feedback on the supply side, and attention should be paid to coal - based cost support[10]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Near - term Fujian Shanli restarted, start - up increased to 96.8%, sales decreased, and inventory remained stable. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory and finished product inventory increased, and the benefit weakened slightly. In the future, the benefit and start - up of polyester yarn have not improved significantly. The export of staple fiber maintains high growth, the start - up remains high due to good spot benefits, the overall inventory pressure is limited, and the disk processing fee is not high. Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the spread at low prices and the situation of warehouse receipts[10]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber**: The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup rubber remains stable while rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see[10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, crude oil decreased by 0.9, naphtha increased by 1, PX CFR Taiwan remained unchanged, PTA inner - market spot decreased by 15, and other related indicators also had corresponding changes. The average daily transaction basis of PTA spot was 2601(-76). The 2.5 - million - ton device of Shandong Weilian reduced its load[10]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged, MEG outer - market price decreased by 2, MEG inner - market price decreased by 28, and other related indicators also changed. The basis of MEG spot was around 01(+72). The 300,000 - ton device of Tongliao restarted[10]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 30, and other related prices remained unchanged. The spot price was around 6321, and the market basis was around 12 - 10. Fujian Shanli restarted, and the start - up increased to 96.8%[10]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard decreased by 65 on a weekly basis, and other related prices also had corresponding changes. The daily and weekly changes of some indicators such as the price difference between different types of rubber and the processing profit were also given[10]. Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene and related products changed. For example, the price of pure benzene (East China) decreased by 70 on a daily basis, and the price of PS (East China transparent benzene) decreased by 50 on a daily basis[3].