芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/19 | P T A | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 原油 | 石脑油日 本 | PX CFR 台湾 | PTA内盘现 货 | POY 1 50D/4 8F | 石脑油裂 解价差 | PX加工差 | PTA加 工差 | 聚酯毛利 | PTA平衡 负荷 | PTA负 荷 | 仓单+有 效预报 | TA基差 产销 | | | 2025/1 2/12 | 61.1 | 549 | 831 | 4610 | 6340 | 100.74 | 282.0 | 150 | 41 | 78.7 | 73.7 | 141587 | -20 | 0.40 | | 2025/1 2/15 | 60.6 | 546 | 833 | 4620 | 6335 | 101.85 | 287.0 | 154 | 13 | 78.7 | 73.7 | 138957 | -2 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/12 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油日 本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/1 2/05 63.8 564 838 4670 6445 96.21 274.0 162 43 79.0 73.7 131121 -33 0.45 2025/1 2/08 62.5 572 841 4650 6415 113.45 269.0 125 50 79.0 73.7 130653 -32 0.60 2025/1 2/09 61.9 563 832 4630 6415 108.98 269.0 159 82 79.0 73.7 139789 -28 0.50 2025/1 2/11 变化 -0.9 -6 4 35 -5.00 0.00 10.0 20 -21 0.0 0.0 -944 2 -0.15 PTA现货成交 日均成交基差2601(-23）。 PTA装置变化 - 近端TA装置运行平稳，开工环比持稳，聚酯负荷 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/10 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油日 本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/1 2/03 62.7 562 848 4700 6485 102.63 286.0 143 30 78.9 73.7 133321 -35 0.40 2025/1 2/04 63.3 560 845 4690 6450 96.05 285.0 144 10 78.9 73.7 130935 -35 0.35 2025/1 2/05 63.8 564 838 4670 6445 96.21 274.0 162 43 79.0 73.7 131121 -33 0.45 2025/1 2/08 62.5 572 841 4650 6415 113.45 269.0 125 50 79.0 73.7 130653 -32 0.60 2025/1 2/09 61.9 563 832 4650 6415 113.45 269.0 1 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/08 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 63.2 568 849 4710 6460 104.46 281.0 143 -24 78.4 73.7 128729 -35 0.50 62.5 567 851 4720 6485 109.49 284.0 142 -1 78.4 73.7 131983 -35 0.50 62.7 562 848 4700 6485 102.63 286.0 143 30 78.9 73.7 133321 -35 0.40 63.3 560 845 4690 6450 96.05 285.0 144 10 78.9 73.7 130935 -35 0.35 63.8 564 838 4670 6445 96.21 274.0 162 43 79.0 73.7 131121 -33 0.45 变化 0.5 4 -7 -20 -5.00 0.16 -11.0 18 33 0.1 0.0 186 2 0.10 近端TA装置运行平稳，开工环比持稳，聚酯负荷 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, maintain high maintenance, downstream has no obvious pressure, India revokes BIS certification, TA inventory accumulation slope is not high, far - month production is limited, PX pattern is good, focus on buying low for positive spread and expanding processing fees opportunities [2] - For MEG, supply reduction and high polyester operation may slow down inventory accumulation, coal - made profit is low, valuation compression space is limited, focus on short - term selling put options; long - term pattern is weak due to new device launch and warehouse receipt pressure [4] - For polyester staple fiber, short - term inventory pressure is limited due to high export, but long - term pattern may weaken as downstream enters off - season and new devices are approaching, current processing fee is neutral, focus on warehouse receipt situation [4] - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, national explicit inventory is stable and at a low level, Thai cup - lump price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping, strategy is to wait and see [4] PTA - PTA spot average daily trading basis for 2601 is - 34, Honggang's 2.5 million - ton device restarts [2] - Near - end TA device restarts, operation rate rises, polyester load slightly increases, inventory decreases, basis strengthens, spot processing fee weakens; PX domestic operation rate drops, overseas devices reduce load, PXN strengthens, disproportionation benefit is weak, isomerization benefit is stable, US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon spread shrinks [2] MEG - MEG spot basis for 01 is around - 2, Shenghong's 900,000 - ton device restarts [4] - Near - end domestic coal - chemical devices restart, operation rate rises, overseas devices are under maintenance, port inventory is stable at the beginning of the week with low arrival forecast, basis weakens, coal - made profit improves slightly [4] Polyester Staple Fiber - Spot price is around 6347, market basis for 01 is around - 100, no device maintenance information [4] - Near - end device operation is stable, operation rate is 97.5%, sales improve slightly, inventory decreases. Downstream yarn operation rate is stable, raw material inventory decreases and finished product inventory increases, profit is maintained [4] Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - There are daily and weekly changes in various prices such as spot prices of Thai standard and mixed rubber, Shanghai full - latex, etc. [4] - There are also changes in spreads and processing profits, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange RU warehouse receipt remains unchanged at 41,400 [4] Styrene - There are daily changes in prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene and its downstream products such as PS, ABS [7] - There are also changes in Asian spreads and domestic profits of styrene, EPS, PS, ABS [7]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Aromatics and Rubber Morning Report [2] - Report Date: December 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: PTA Analysis Market Data - From November 24 - 28, 2025, crude oil remained stable at 63.3, while PTA spot price was 4610, and POY 150D/48F was 6490. Naphtha cracking spread was 101.72, PX processing margin was 260, PTA processing margin was 162, and polyester gross profit was 92. PTA balance load was 78.2, and PTA load was 71.0. The change in仓单+有效预报was 324, and TA basis declined by 10, with sales-to-production ratio remaining unchanged [3]. - PTA's average daily trading basis was 2601(-36), and Honggang's 2.5 million - ton plant restarted [3]. Weekly View - Near - term TA: Some plants restarted, with开工 rate rising, polyester load slightly increasing, inventory decreasing, basis strengthening, and spot processing fee weakening. PX domestic开工 rate declined, some overseas plants reduced production, PXN strengthened, disproportionation efficiency was weak, and isomerization efficiency was stable. The US - Asia aromatics spread shrank [3]. - Future outlook: TA will maintain high - maintenance status, downstream (especially filaments and staple fibers) shows no obvious pressure. With India revoking BIS certification, TA inventory accumulation rate is low, far - month production capacity addition is limited, and PX situation is good. Attention should be paid to opportunities for long - short arbitrage at low prices and expanding processing fees [3]. Group 3: MEG Analysis Market Data - From November 24 - 28, 2025, Northeast Asian ethylene was 730. MEG's external price was 461, internal price was 3900, East China price was 3900, far - month price was 3907. MEG coal - based profit was - 478, internal cash flow (ethylene) was - 668, total load was 70.8, coal - based MEG load was 66.5, and port inventory was 73.2 [3]. - MEG's basis was around 01(+5), and Shenghong's 900,000 - ton plant restarted [3]. Weekly View - Near - term: There was concentrated restart of domestic coal - chemical plants,开工 rate increased, some overseas plants were under maintenance, port inventory was stable at the beginning of the week, and the forecast of weekly arrivals was low. Basis weakened, and coal - based efficiency improved slightly [3]. - Future outlook: With supply reduction and high polyester开工 rate, inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. Coal - based efficiency is at a low level, and the comparison with other olefins has weakened. The room for further compression of the current valuation is limited. Attention should be paid to short - term put - selling opportunities. In the long term, with new plant launches and warehouse receipts suppressing the market structure, the overall situation is expected to be weak [3]. Group 4: Polyester Staple Fiber Analysis Market Data - From November 24 - 28, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber was 6365, low - melting staple fiber was 7580, and other product prices remained stable. The开工 rate of virgin staple fiber was 98, recycled cotton - type was 51, and yarn - making开工 rate was 66. Short - fiber profit was 99, pure polyester yarn profit was 35, cotton - polyester staple fiber spread was 8115, and viscose - polyester staple fiber spread was 6485 [3]. - The spot price was around 6312, and the market basis was around 01 - 90 [3]. Weekly View - Near - term: Plant operation was stable,开工 rate was maintained at 97.5%, sales - to - production ratio improved slightly, and inventory decreased. On the demand side, the开工 rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory decreased, and finished - product inventory increased, with efficiency maintained [3]. - Future outlook: Short - fiber demand remains basically the same as before. Although the efficiency and开工 rate of polyester yarn have not improved significantly, short - fiber exports maintain high growth, and short - term inventory pressure is limited. In the far - month, downstream enters the off - season, and with new plant launches approaching, the situation may weaken. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt conditions [3]. Group 5: Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber Analysis Market Data - From November 24 - 28, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 5 to 1830, Thai mixed rubber increased by 10 to 1825, RMB mixed rubber increased by 70 to 14630, Shanghai full - latex increased by 170 to 14710, and Shanghai 3L remained unchanged at 15200 [6]. - The weekly change in the difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract was - 100, between US - dollar Thai standard rubber and NR main contract was - 11, between RU09 and RU01 was 0, and between RU main contract and NR main contract was 180. The上期所RU仓单 remained unchanged at 41400 [6]. Main Contradictions - National explicit inventory is stable, and the absolute level is not high [6]. - Thai cup - lump rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping [6]. Strategy - Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [6]. Group 6: Styrene Analysis Market Data - From November 24 - 28, 2025, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) was 730, pure benzene (CFR China) increased from 664 to 665, pure benzene (East China) increased by 35 to 5355, and styrene (CFR China) increased by 5 to 820 [10]. - The daily change in PS (East China transparent benzene) was 0, ABS (0215A) was 0, Asian spread was 0, pure benzene - naphtha spread was 0, styrene domestic profit decreased by 50 to 25, EPS domestic profit decreased by 50, and PS and ABS domestic profits remained unchanged at - 926 [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For PTA, with some near - end TA device maintenance,开工 decreasing, polyester load dropping, and inventory accumulating, the basis is weak but the spot processing fee improves slightly. PX has a good pattern, and opportunities for long - short spreads and expanding processing fees should be noted [3]. - For MEG, short - term inventory accumulation is expected to continue, but the supply may decrease due to low profitability. In the long term, the overall pattern may weaken due to new device launches and warehouse receipt pressure [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, although the performance of the yarn end is not significantly improved, the high export growth of staple fiber results in no obvious inventory accumulation. Opportunities for expanding processing fees and the situation of warehouse receipts should be noted [3]. - For natural rubber, with stable national explicit inventory and rainfall affecting rubber tapping in Thailand, the strategy is to wait and see [6]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From November 13 - 19, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased by 1.4, PTA internal - market spot price increased by 30, and polyester margin decreased by 15. The PTA balance load and PTA load remained unchanged at 77.5 and 75.7 respectively, and the warehouse receipt + effective forecast increased by 2604 [3]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 million - ton device was under maintenance [3]. - **Outlook**: TA will maintain a high - maintenance state, and with no obvious pressure from downstream products and the revocation of BIS certification by India, the inventory accumulation slope is not high. There are limited new investments in the far - month, and PX has a good pattern [3]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From November 13 - 19, 2025, the MEG external - market price decreased by 4, the MEG internal - market price decreased by 33, and the MEG coal - making profit decreased by 33. The MEG total load and coal - made MEG load remained unchanged at 71.6 and 68.0 respectively, and the MEG port inventory remained at 73.2 [3]. - **Device Changes**: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device, Huayi's 200,000 - ton device were under maintenance, and Zhenhai's 800,000 - ton device restarted [3]. - **Outlook**: Short - term inventory accumulation is expected to continue, but the supply may decrease due to low profitability. In the long term, the overall pattern may weaken due to new device launches and warehouse receipt pressure [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From November 13 - 19, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 20, and the short - fiber profit increased by 6 while the pure - polyester yarn profit decreased by 20 [3]. - **Device Status**: Near - end devices ran smoothly, and the operating rate was maintained at 97.5%. The production and sales were weak, and the inventory increased month - on - month [3]. - **Outlook**: Although the performance of the yarn end is not significantly improved, the high export growth of staple fiber results in no obvious inventory accumulation. There are relatively limited new capacity investments in the short term [3]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: From November 13 - 19, 2025, the price of RU main contract increased by 145, and the price of NR main contract increased by 135. The weekly changes of the mixed - RU main contract, US - dollar Thai standard - NR main contract, etc. also showed certain fluctuations [6]. - **Main Contradictions**: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the absolute level is not high. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [6]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From November 13 - 19, 2025, the price of styrene (CFR China) increased by 8, and the price of styrene (Jiangsu) increased by 60. The price of PS (East China transparent benzene) increased by 50, while the price of ABS (0215A) decreased by 50 [10]. - **Margin Changes**: The domestic profit of styrene decreased by 85, and the domestic profit of EPS decreased by 34 [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, near - term TA has partial device maintenance, with开工 decreasing, polyester load dropping, inventory accumulating, and basis remaining weak. Spot processing fees improve slightly. PX has a good pattern, and opportunities for positive spreads and expanding processing fees should be noted [3]. - For MEG, near - term domestic oil - based production increases, coal - based production has partial maintenance and load reduction, overall operation decreases, and inventory accumulates. In the short - term, EG inventory accumulation is expected to continue, but the supply may decrease, and the long - term pattern is expected to weaken [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, near - term device operation is stable, production and sales are weak, and inventory accumulates. Although the downstream has no obvious improvement, short - fiber exports are growing, and opportunities for expanding processing fees and the situation of warehouse receipts should be noted [3]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [6]. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From November 11 - 17, crude oil decreased by $0.2, PTA internal - market spot decreased by $20, and polyester margin increased by 37. The average daily transaction basis of PTA spot is 2601(-71) [3]. - **Device Changes**: Sichuan Energy Investment's 1 million - ton device is under maintenance [3]. - **Outlook**: TA will maintain a high - maintenance state, downstream pressure is not obvious, and the inventory accumulation slope is not high. Opportunities for positive spreads and expanding processing fees should be noted [3]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From November 11 - 17, MEG outer - market price decreased by $3, and MEG coal - based profit remained unchanged. The basis of MEG spot is around 01(+40) [3]. - **Device Changes**: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device, Huayi's 200,000 - ton device are under maintenance, and Zhenhai's 800,000 - ton device restarts [3]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, EG inventory accumulation is expected to continue, but the supply may decrease. The long - term pattern is expected to weaken [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From November 11 - 17, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by $15, and short - fiber profit remained unchanged. The spot price is around 6297, and the market basis is around 12 - 20 [3]. - **Device Changes**: No device maintenance information [3]. - **Outlook**: Although the downstream has no obvious improvement, short - fiber exports are growing, and opportunities for expanding processing fees and the situation of warehouse receipts should be noted [3]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: From November 11 - 17, the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 105, and the price of Thai cup - rubber remained unchanged. The weekly change of RU main contract is 205, and that of NR main contract is 190 [6]. - **Key Relationships**: The basis of mixed - RU main contract decreased by 125, and the processing profit of Thai standard remained at 15 [6]. - **Outlook**: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [6]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From November 11 - 17, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, and styrene (CFR China) increased by 2. The daily change of PS (East China transparent benzene) is 20, and that of styrene domestic profit is - 55 [9].

Report on Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Rubber 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **PTA**: Near - term TA partial device load reduction,开工 slightly decreased, polyester load increased, inventory slightly accumulated, basis strengthened, and spot processing fee slightly repaired. With PX domestic start - up rising and overseas maintenance implemented, PXN widened, disproportionation benefit weakened, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia shrank. In the future, TA's low processing fee has lasted for a long time, and the improvement of terminal data supports the continuation of polyester start - up. Pay attention to additional maintenance, and the processing fee center may gradually repair due to limited far - month production[10]. - **MEG**: Near - term domestic oil - based restart, load increased, overseas partial device restarted, port inventory decreased at the beginning of the week, and the arrival forecast increased during the week, basis weakened, and coal - based benefit and ratio decreased. In the long - term, due to high existing start - up and new device production, it will enter a continuous inventory accumulation stage, with a bearish long - term pattern. However, after the weakening of coal - based benefit and ratio, there may be partial negative feedback on the supply side, and attention should be paid to coal - based cost support[10]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Near - term Fujian Shanli restarted, start - up increased to 96.8%, sales decreased, and inventory remained stable. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory and finished product inventory increased, and the benefit weakened slightly. In the future, the benefit and start - up of polyester yarn have not improved significantly. The export of staple fiber maintains high growth, the start - up remains high due to good spot benefits, the overall inventory pressure is limited, and the disk processing fee is not high. Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the spread at low prices and the situation of warehouse receipts[10]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber**: The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup rubber remains stable while rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see[10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, crude oil decreased by 0.9, naphtha increased by 1, PX CFR Taiwan remained unchanged, PTA inner - market spot decreased by 15, and other related indicators also had corresponding changes. The average daily transaction basis of PTA spot was 2601(-76). The 2.5 - million - ton device of Shandong Weilian reduced its load[10]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged, MEG outer - market price decreased by 2, MEG inner - market price decreased by 28, and other related indicators also changed. The basis of MEG spot was around 01(+72). The 300,000 - ton device of Tongliao restarted[10]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 30, and other related prices remained unchanged. The spot price was around 6321, and the market basis was around 12 - 10. Fujian Shanli restarted, and the start - up increased to 96.8%[10]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard decreased by 65 on a weekly basis, and other related prices also had corresponding changes. The daily and weekly changes of some indicators such as the price difference between different types of rubber and the processing profit were also given[10]. Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene and related products changed. For example, the price of pure benzene (East China) decreased by 70 on a daily basis, and the price of PS (East China transparent benzene) decreased by 50 on a daily basis[3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - end TA partial device load reduction, start - up slightly decreased, polyester load increased month - on - month, inventory slightly accumulated, basis strengthened month - on - month, and spot processing fee slightly repaired. With the subsequent low processing fee for a long time and better terminal data, the processing fee center may gradually repair [2]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic oil - based restarted, load increased month - on - month, overseas partial devices restarted, port inventory decreased month - on - month at the beginning of next week, but the arrival forecast increased during the week, basis weakened month - on - month, and coal - based benefits and price ratios decreased. In the long - term, it is in a continuous inventory accumulation stage with a bearish pattern, but there may be partial negative feedback on the supply side after the weakening of coal - based benefits and price ratios [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - end Fujian Shanli restarted, start - up increased, production and sales weakened month - on - month, and inventory remained stable. With the overall inapparent improvement in the benefits and start - up of the polyester yarn end, high export growth of staple fiber itself, and high start - up due to good spot benefits, the overall inventory pressure is limited, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding the spread and the situation of warehouse receipts [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low absolute level, and the Thai cup - lump rubber price remained stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. Summary by Commodity PTA - Price data: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, crude oil decreased from $64.9 to $64.4, PTA internal - market spot decreased from 4535 to 4520, and polyester POY 150D/48F increased from 6415 to 6515. The PTA processing fee increased from 119 to 94, and polyester gross profit increased from - 3 to 160 [2]. - Device change: Shandong Weilian's 2.5 - million - ton device reduced load [2]. MEG - Price data: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 740, MEG external - market price decreased from 490 to 471, and MEG internal - market price decreased from 4152 to 4002. MEG coal - based profit decreased from - 171 to - 286 [2]. - Device change: Tongliao's 300,000 - ton device restarted [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price data: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6440 to 6395, and short - fiber profit decreased from 154 to 132 [2]. - Device change: Fujian Shanli restarted, and the start - up increased to 96.8% [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - Price data: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the US - dollar Thai standard spot decreased from 1865 to 1800, and the Shanghai whole - latex decreased from 14925 to 14175 [2]. - Key indicators: The national explicit inventory remained stable, and the Thai cup - lump rubber price remained stable with rainfall affecting tapping [2]. Styrene - Price data: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 740, pure benzene (CFR China) remained at 681, and styrene (CFR China) decreased from 800 to 780. EPS domestic profit increased from 275 to 395 [5].