PTA装置变化 逸盛海南200万吨检修；恒力徽州500万吨检修。 芳烃橡胶早报 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 2025/0 8/18 66.6 571 833 4670 6770 82.57 262.0 117 139 79.0 72.9 42105 -15 0.45 2025/0 8/19 65.8 575 835 4690 6750 92.26 260.0 128 97 79.0 72.9 37547 -12 0.50 2025/0 8/20 66.8 576 838 4690 6805 85.56 262.0 115 135 79.0 72.9 36545 0 0.70 2025/0 8/21 67.7 585 852 4810 6805 88.48 267.0 156 31 79.0 72.9 33102 15 0.70 2025/0 8/22 67.7 587 857 4870 6865 90.54 270.0 197 38 79.3 72.9 33102 20 0.40 变化 0.0 2 5 60 60.00 2.06 3.0 41 7 0.3 0.0 0 5 -0.3 ...

研究中心能化团队 2025/08/21 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 TA基差 产销 2025/0 8/14 66.8 571 824 4650 6770 81.06 253.0 148 147 78.3 76.0 46107 -15 0.35 2025/0 8/15 65.9 573 828 4660 6770 89.82 255.0 135 141 79.0 76.0 44907 -15 0.40 2025/0 8/18 66.6 571 833 4670 6770 82.57 262.0 117 139 79.0 76.0 42105 -15 0.45 2025/0 8/19 65.8 575 835 4690 6750 92.26 260.0 128 97 79.0 76.0 37547 -12 0.50 2025/0 8/20 66.8 576 838 4690 6805 85.56 262.0 115 135 79.0 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Aromatics and Rubber Morning Report [1] - Report date: August 20, 2025 [1] - Report team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [1] Group 2: Styrene Price and Profit Data - On August 19, 2025, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) was at 825, pure benzene (CFR China) at 747, and styrene (CFR China) at 890. Styrene in Jiangsu was 7280, in South China 7440, and EPS (East China common material) was 8100. PS (East China transparent benzene) was 7700, and ABS (0215A) was 9600 [4]. - Day - on - day changes on August 19: ethylene and pure benzene (CFR) unchanged, styrene (CFR) unchanged, styrene in Jiangsu +10, in South China +10, EPS - 150, PS - 50, ABS unchanged [4]. - Asian spread of pure benzene - naphtha was 161, styrene domestic profit - 292, EPS domestic profit 115, PS domestic profit - 162, ABS domestic profit - 926, all with no day - on - day change except EPS profit - 150 and PS profit - 50 [4]. Group 3: PTA Price and Data - On August 19, 2025, crude oil was 65.8, naphtha 575, PX CFR Taiwan 835, PTA domestic spot 4690, POY 150D/4 6750. Naphtha cracking spread was 92.26, PX processing margin 260.0, PTA processing margin 128, polyester gross profit 97 [12]. - Day - on - day changes: crude oil - 0.8, naphtha +4, PX +2, PTA +20, POY - 20, naphtha cracking spread +9.69, PX processing margin - 2.0, PTA processing margin +11, polyester gross profit - 42 [12]. - PTA spot transaction: average daily transaction basis was 2509(-9). Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton plant was under maintenance [12]. Outlook - Near - term TA start - up increased, polyester load rose slightly, inventory continued to accumulate, basis was weak, and spot processing fee was still low. PX domestic start - up rose slightly, overseas had both maintenance and restart, start - up declined slightly, PXN strengthened, disproportionation and isomerization benefits remained stable, and the US - Asia aromatics spread rebounded slightly. In the future, additional maintenance of TA increased due to low processing fees. Filament sales were weak but there was no further reduction in production in the short term. Bottle - grade PTA inventory decreased continuously at low start - up. Overall, polyester start - up was expected to stabilize and have upward flexibility, supply - demand was expected to improve, and opportunities to widen processing fees on dips could be considered [12]. Group 4: MEG Price and Data - On August 19, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene was 825, MEG outer - market price 523, MEG inner - market price 4458, MEG in East China 4498, MEG far - month price 4455, MEG coal - based profit 372, MEG inner - market cash flow (ethylene) - 622, MEG total load 67.0, coal - based MEG load 80.5, MEG port inventory 54.7, non - coal - based load 60 [12]. - Day - on - day changes: Northeast Asia ethylene unchanged, MEG outer - market price +2, MEG inner - market price +17, MEG in East China +20, MEG far - month price +16, MEG coal - based profit +17, MEG inner - market cash flow (ethylene) unchanged, other loads and inventory unchanged [12]. - MEG spot transaction: basis was around 09(+87). Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton plant restarted [12]. Outlook - Near - term domestic plant restarts were postponed, start - up was stable, there was some unexpected overseas maintenance. Port inventory was expected to accumulate as arrivals increased and shipments were stable. Downstream inventory levels increased, basis was stable, and oil - based benefits improved. In the future, EG supply had postponed restarts and overseas unexpected maintenance, port inventory was expected to remain low with little short - term accumulation pressure. The situation was good and benefits were not low. In the far - month, inventory accumulation was expected due to the return of maintenance and new plant commissioning, but valuation was greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, and it was expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellite plants [12]. Group 5: Polyester Staple Fiber Price and Data - On August 19, 2025, 1.4D cotton - type was 6555, low - melting point staple fiber 7330, virgin hollow 7060, imitation large - denier fiber 5700, pure polyester yarn 12100, polyester - cotton yarn 16300, virgin staple fiber load 91, recycled cotton - type load 50, polyester yarn operation 63, staple fiber profit 53, pure polyester yarn profit - 155, cotton - polyester staple difference 8520, viscose - polyester staple difference 6345 [12]. - Day - on - day changes: 1.4D cotton - type +5, other prices unchanged, loads and operation unchanged, staple fiber profit unchanged, pure polyester yarn profit - 5, cotton - polyester staple difference - 10, viscose - polyester staple difference - 5 [12]. - Spot information: spot price was around 6500, market basis was around 10 - 100 [12]. Outlook - Near - term Ningbo Dafa's technical transformation plant resumed, start - up increased slightly to 91.1%, sales were stable, and inventory remained the same. On the demand side, polyester yarn start - up increased, raw material inventory rose, finished product inventory continued to decline, and benefits were maintained. In the future, as polyester yarn finished product inventory continued to decline, downstream start - up might continue to rise. Although staple fiber supply might also increase, the overall space was limited. Considering that the futures processing fee was still in a low range, opportunities to widen processing fees on dips could be considered [12]. Group 6: Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber Price and Data - On August 19, 2025, US - dollar Thai standard spot was 1805, US - dollar Thai mixed spot 1805, RMB mixed rubber 14630, Shanghai whole milk 14680, Shanghai 3L 14850, Thai latex 54.7, Thai cup lump 49.8, Yunnan latex 14300, Hainan latex 15700, butadiene rubber 11800, RU main contract 15875, NR main contract 12690 [12]. - Day - on - day changes: US - dollar Thai standard +5, US - dollar Thai mixed +5, RMB mixed rubber +50, Shanghai whole milk +95, Shanghai 3L +70, Thai latex +1, other prices unchanged or with small changes [12]. - Mixed - RU main contract basis was - 1245, US - dollar Thai standard - NR main contract 274, RU09 - RU01 - 750, RU main contract - NR main contract 3185, latex - cup lump 4.9, whole milk - mixed 50, 3L - mixed 220, mixed - butadiene rubber 2830, Thai standard processing profit 15, mixed internal - external price difference - 140, SHFE RU warehouse receipts 179570 [12]. - Day - on - day changes: mixed - RU main contract - 5, US - dollar Thai standard - NR main contract - 9, other spreads and profits with small changes or unchanged [12]. Outlook - Main contradictions: national visible inventory was stable at a low absolute level but did not decline seasonally; Thai cup lump price rebounded due to rain affecting tapping. Strategy: wait - and - see [12]

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/19 日本 台湾 货 8F 解价差 工差 负荷 荷 效预报 2025/0 8/12 66.1 570 834 4705 6730 85.34 264.0 149 49 78.3 76.0 51531 -12 0.35 2025/0 8/13 65.6 564 831 4695 6745 82.43 267.0 158 75 78.3 76.0 47757 -11 0.40 2025/0 8/14 66.8 571 824 4650 6770 81.06 253.0 148 147 78.3 76.0 46107 -15 0.35 2025/0 8/15 65.9 573 828 4660 6770 89.82 255.0 135 141 79.0 76.0 44907 -15 0.40 2025/0 8/18 66.6 571 833 4670 6770 82.57 262.0 117 139 79.0 76.0 44907 -15 0.45 变化 0.7 -2 5 10 0.00 -7.25 7.0 -18 -2 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.05 PTA现货成 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with low processing fees, additional maintenance has increased. Although the sales of filament are weak, significant further production cuts are unlikely in the short - term. The bottle - chip inventory has been continuously decreasing with low operation. Overall, the polyester operation is expected to stabilize and has upward potential. There is a chance to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [1]. - For MEG, there are some postponed restarts in domestic plants and unexpected overseas maintenance. The port inventory is expected to remain low in the short - term with limited inventory accumulation pressure. The situation is good with decent profits. In the long - term, inventory accumulation is expected due to the return from maintenance and new plant commissioning, and the valuation is greatly affected by the cost side. It should be viewed as a wide - range fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellite plants [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the finished - product inventory of polyester yarn has been continuously decreasing, the downstream operation may continue to rise. Although the supply of staple fiber may also increase, the overall space is limited. Considering the low processing fees on the futures market, there is a chance to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low level but shows no seasonal decline. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber has rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 11 - 15, crude oil decreased by 0.9, PTA spot price increased by 10, and the processing fee decreased by 13. The average daily transaction basis was 2509(-13) [1]. - **Device Changes**: Jiaxing Petrochemical's 2.2 million - ton plant restarted, Shandong Weilian's 2.5 million - ton plant restarted, and Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 million - ton plant was under maintenance [1]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 11 - 15, the MEG outer - market price decreased by 1, the inner - market price decreased by 6, and the coal - based profit decreased by 37.68. The basis was around 09(+87) [3]. - **Device Changes**: Zhejiang Petrochemical's 800,000 - ton plant restarted, and Shenghong's 1.9 million - ton plant stopped operating due to an accident [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 11 - 15, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 50, and the profit increased by 43. The spot price was around 6468, and the market basis was around 09 - 0 [3]. - **Device Changes**: Ningbo Dafa's technical - renovation plant resumed operation, and the operation rate slightly increased to 91.1% [3]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From August 11 - 15, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 25, and the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 410. The weekly changes were 35 and 470 respectively [4]. - **Other Indicators**: The national explicit inventory remained stable, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [4]. Sty，rene - **Price Changes**: From August 11 - 15, the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased by 5, and the domestic profit increased by 28 [6].

芳烃橡胶早报 | P T A | POY 1 | 石脑油 | PX CFR | PTA内盘现 | 石脑油裂 | PTA加 | PTA平衡 | PTA负 | 仓单+有 | 日期 | 原油 | 50D/4 | PX加工差 | 聚酯毛利 | TA基差 产销 | 日本 | 台湾 | 货 | 解价差 | 工差 | 负荷 | 荷 | 效预报 | 8F | 2025/0 | 69.2 | 576 | 856 | 4815 | 6685 | 69.04 | 280.0 | 156 | -99 | 80.7 | 79.7 | 30746 | 5 | 0.40 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

周度观点 态但绝对库存水平不高，现货加工费再度压缩至偏低水平，而随着长丝产销放量与瓶片低开工下的连续去库，聚酯开工预计 逐步走稳并具备向上弹性，关注阶段性逢低正套机会；PX整体去库趋势尚未扭转，估值下限依然有保障。 芳烃橡胶早报 M E G 日期 东北亚乙烯 MEG外盘 价格 MEG内盘 价格 MEG华东 价格 MEG远月 价格 MEG煤制 利润 MEG内盘现金 流（乙烯） MEG总负 荷 煤制MEG 负荷 MEG港口 库存 非煤制负荷 2025/07/21 820 521 4470 4485 4465 667 -580 69.3 76.2 53.3 66 2025/07/22 820 525 4490 4505 4486 687 -556 69.3 76.2 53.3 66 2025/07/23 820 526 4501 4515 4500 698 -542 69.3 76.2 53.3 66 2025/07/24 820 533 4530 4545 4528 727 -512 69.3 76.2 53.3 66 2025/07/25 820 538 4582 4597 4582 767 -462 69.3 ...

P T A 芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/22 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 68.7 584 836 4715 6590 80.11 252.0 147 -68 81.3 79.7 41840 8 0.45 68.5 581 834 4720 6570 79.13 253.0 166 -90 81.3 79.7 40760 8 0.45 69.5 575 833 4730 6540 65.17 258.0 179 -141 81.3 79.7 30866 20 0.40 69.3 576 839 4780 6505 68.56 263.0 201 -217 80.7 79.7 30764 30 0.90 69.2 573 842 4785 6525 65.57 269.0 193 -214 80.7 79.7 30764 5 0.60 变化 -0.1 -3 3 5 20.00 -2.99 6.0 -8 3 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA is entering a inventory accumulation phase, with the spot processing fee significantly weakened. There may be opportunities to expand the processing fee [3]. - MEG is expected to be in a sideways trend. With the restart of domestic coal - based units and Saudi units, it is gradually entering an inventory accumulation phase. Attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [9]. - The processing fee of polyester staple fiber is expected to move sideways. The supply has not significantly decreased or increased, with weak domestic demand and high export growth [9]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the strategy is to wait and see due to stable national explicit inventory and a rebound in the price of Thai cup - lump rubber affected by rainfall [9]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Spread Changes**: From July 11 to July 17, the price of crude oil decreased by 6, PX CFR Taiwan decreased by 1, PTA internal spot price increased by 10, and the polyester gross profit decreased by 51. The PTA processing fee increased by 13, and the PXN spread decreased slightly [3]. - **Market Situation**: Near - term TA start - up increased slightly, polyester load decreased further, inventory continued to accumulate, the basis declined, and the spot processing fee weakened significantly. The domestic PX start - up was stable, with some overseas maintenance, and the PXN spread weakened slightly [3]. MEG - **Price and Spread Changes**: From July 11 to July 17, the MEG external price increased by 3, the internal price increased by 37, and the coal - based profit increased by 37. The internal cash flow (ethylene) increased by 41 [9]. - **Market Situation**: Near - term domestic coal - based restart drove the start - up to increase month - on - month. Saudi units were restarting, and port inventory was expected to accumulate next week. The basis was stable, and the benefit ratio was maintained. With the increase in domestic start - up, it is gradually entering an inventory accumulation phase [9]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Profit Changes**: From July 11 to July 17, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 45, and the short - fiber profit decreased by 66 [9]. - **Market Situation**: The supply side saw a reduction in production by Ningbo Dafa, and the start - up decreased to 92.3%. The sales were stable month - on - month, and the inventory was basically maintained. The demand side's yarn start - up continued to decline, with raw material inventory decreasing and finished - product inventory increasing [9]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From July 11 to July 17, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 20, and the price of RMB mixed rubber increased by 170. The RU main contract price increased by 165, and the NR main contract price increased by 95 [9]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory was stable, with an absolute level not high but no seasonal depletion. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [9]. Styrene - **Price and Profit Changes**: From July 11 to July 17, the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased by 5, the price of PS (East China transparent benzene) decreased by 50, and the EPS domestic profit increased by 100 [12]. - **Market Situation**: The ethylene price remained stable, and the pure - benzene price changed slightly. The Asian spread of pure - benzene to naphtha was stable, and the styrene domestic profit was basically unchanged [12].

M E G 日期 东北亚乙烯 MEG外盘 价格 MEG内盘 价格 MEG华东 价格 MEG远月 价格 MEG煤制 利润 MEG内盘现金 流（乙烯） MEG总负 荷 煤制MEG 负荷 MEG港口 库存 非煤制负荷 2025/07/10 820 514 4374 4390 4374 610 -675 67.6 73.1 55.3 65 2025/07/11 820 514 4384 4400 4385 613 -663 67.6 73.1 55.3 65 2025/07/14 820 515 4398 4413 4398 627 -650 67.6 73.1 55.3 65 2025/07/15 820 516 4408 4423 4408 637 -640 67.6 73.1 55.3 65 2025/07/16 820 515 4400 4415 4400 629 -650 67.6 73.1 55.3 65 变化 0 -1 -8 -8 -8.00 -8.00 -10 0 0 0 0 MEG现货成交 基差对09（+70）附近。 MEG装置变化 - 周度观点 近端国内煤制重启带动开工环比上行，沙特装置重启中，到 ...