芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/30 | | P T A | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 原油 | 石脑油 日本 | PX CFR 台湾 | PTA内盘现 货 | POY 1 50D/4 8F | 石脑油裂 解价差 | PX加工差 | PTA加 工差 | 聚酯毛利 | PTA平衡 负荷 | PTA负 荷 | 仓单+有 效预报 | TA基差 产销 | | | 2025/0 9/23 | 67.6 | 598 | 803 | 4470 | 6620 | 101.77 | 205.0 | 125 | 209 | 80.6 | 76.8 | 32714 | -80 | 0.30 | | 2025/0 9/24 | 69.3 | 606 | 812 | 4525 | 6600 | 97.96 | 206.0 | 120 | 140 | 80.6 | 76.8 | 32714 | -75 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/29 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 66.6 596 808 4510 6600 107.67 212.0 137 139 80.6 76.8 31310 -80 0.50 67.6 598 803 4470 6620 101.77 205.0 125 209 80.6 76.8 32714 -80 0.30 69.3 606 812 4525 6600 97.96 206.0 120 140 80.6 76.8 32714 -75 0.75 69.4 609 817 4585 6530 99.65 208.0 151 14 80.6 76.8 32714 -73 1.85 70.1 608 814 4590 6630 93.95 206.0 172 117 80.1 76.8 32714 -70 0.65 变化 0.7 -1 -3 5 100.00 -5.70 -2.0 21 103 -0.5 0.0 0 3 -1.20 PTA装置变化 福 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, after the recent TA maintenance, the start - up rate decreased, polyester load remained stable, inventory decreased, basis weakened, and spot processing fees weakened. In the future, TA unexpected maintenance may increase, polyester start - up will continue to rise, and PX supply will gradually return. There is an opportunity to expand processing fees by buying at low prices, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of Hengli Huizhou [2]. - For MEG, the recent domestic oil - based production increased load, coal - based start - up decreased slightly, overall load increased, overseas unexpected maintenance increased, port inventory decreased, and basis strengthened. In the short term, EG port inventory is expected to continue to decrease, but in the long - term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate increased slightly, sales weakened, and inventory remained stable. The demand side has a slowdown in the speed of increasing load after the accumulation of finished product inventory. The start - up rate is expected to remain high, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory remained stable, the Thai cup - lump price remained stable, and rainfall affected rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - **Data Changes**: From August 26 to September 1, crude oil price increased by 0.1, PX processing difference decreased by 1.35, PTA load remained unchanged, and TA basis decreased by 12 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton device restarted, and a 1.2 - million - ton device planned to be under maintenance [2]. MEG - **Data Changes**: From August 26 to September 1, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained unchanged, MEG external price decreased by 3, and MEG coal - based profit decreased by 23 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton device restarted; Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton device was under maintenance [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Data Changes**: From August 26 to September 1, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 5, and the short - fiber profit remained unchanged [2]. - **Device Changes**: Xiamen Xinhongxiang's low - melting - point device restarted, and the start - up rate increased to 92.1% [2]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - **Data Changes**: From August 26 to September 1, the US - dollar Thai standard spot price remained unchanged, and the RU main contract price decreased by 15 [2]. - **Key Ratios**: The difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract remained unchanged, and the difference between US - dollar Thai standard and NR main contract increased by 13 [2]. Styrene - **Data Changes**: From August 26 to September 1, the ethylene price remained unchanged, the pure benzene (CFR China) price remained unchanged, and the styrene (CFR China) price decreased by 10 [5]. - **Profit Changes**: The styrene domestic profit remained at - 352, the EPS domestic profit decreased by 30, and the PS domestic profit increased by 19 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with increased unexpected TA maintenance, rising polyester开工, and returning PX supply, the near - term supply - demand pattern is expected to improve. Attention should be paid to opportunities to expand processing fees at low prices and the restart progress of Hengli Huizhou [3]. - For MEG, although the EG开工 has risen to a relatively high level, port inventories are expected to remain low in the short term. The far - month is expected to accumulate inventory, and it is regarded as a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun [9]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the destocking of polyester yarn end products accelerates, restocking demand emerges. With high - level staple fiber开工 and continued destocking, attention should be paid to opportunities to expand processing fees at low prices [9]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable at a non - high level without seasonal destocking, and the price of Thai cup rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Data Changes**: From August 22 to 28, 2025, the PTA spot price decreased by 60 yuan, and the polyester profit increased by 35 yuan. The TA basis decreased by 3, and the daily average sales ratio increased by 0.25. The PTA spot transaction average daily basis for 2509 increased by 25 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Sanfangxiang's 1.2 - million - ton device and Dushan Energy's 2.5 - million - ton device are under maintenance [3]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end TA unexpected maintenance increases, resulting in a significant decline in开工. Polyester负荷 continues to rise, inventory decreases month - on - month, the basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fees improve. PX domestic开工 rises slightly, overseas devices restart, and开工 rebounds significantly. The PXN strengthens month - on - month, the disproportionation benefit weakens, and the isomerization benefit reaches a high level. The US - Asia aromatics transfer volume is relatively small [3]. MEG - **Data Changes**: From August 22 to 28, 2025, the MEG outer - market price decreased by 3 US dollars, the inner - market price decreased by 26 yuan, and the coal - based profit decreased by 26 yuan. The MEG basis for 01 increased by 62 [9]. - **Device Changes**: Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton device restarts, and Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton device is under maintenance [9]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end domestic oil - based devices restart, coal - based开工 declines slightly, and overall负荷 rebounds. Weekly arrivals decline while shipments remain stable, leading to a decrease in port inventory. Downstream restocking levels remain stable, the basis remains strong, and the benefit ratio remains basically stable month - on - month [9]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Data Changes**: From August 22 to 28, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 25 yuan, and the short - fiber profit increased by 25 yuan [9]. - **Device Changes**: Not mentioned in the content - **Market Situation**: Near - end Chuzhou Xingbang and Ningbo Zhuocheng increase production, and开工 rebounds slightly to 91.9%. Sales remain basically stable, and inventory decreases month - on - month. On the demand side, the polyester yarn end开工 rises, raw material restocking increases, and finished - product inventory continues to decrease, with weak benefits [9]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - **Data Changes**: From August 22 to 28, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot increased by 10 US dollars, and the RU main contract price increased by 225 yuan [9]. - **Device Changes**: Not mentioned in the content - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory remains stable at a non - high level without seasonal destocking, and the price of Thai cup rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping [9]. Styrene - **Data Changes**: From August 22 to 28, 2025, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, and the price of styrene (Jiangsu) decreased by 55 yuan [12]. - **Device Changes**: Not mentioned in the content - **Market Situation**: Not mentioned in the content

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report PTA - TA's unexpected maintenance has increased, polyester's operation continues to recover, and there is still room to increase the load with relatively healthy inventory. The supply of raw material PX will gradually return, and the short - term supply - demand pattern of TA is expected to continue to improve. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand processing fees at low prices and the restart progress of Hengli Huizhou [1]. MEG - In the short term, the domestic oil - based production restarts, the coal - based operation declines slightly, and the overall load recovers. The port inventory decreases due to the decline in arrivals and stable shipments. The downstream inventory level remains stable, the basis is strong, and the profit ratio remains basically stable. In the future, EG's operation will rise to a relatively high level, and the port inventory is expected to remain low due to the short - term low arrivals. The pattern is good and the profit is not low. The far - month is expected to accumulate inventory with the return of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, but the valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, and it is regarded as a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Recently, the operation of Chuzhou Xingbang and Ningbo Zhuocheng has increased, and the operation rate has slightly increased to 91.9%. The production and sales are basically stable, and the inventory has decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the operation of the polyester yarn end has increased, the raw material inventory has increased, and the finished product inventory has continued to decrease, but the profit is weak. In the future, as the inventory reduction speed of the polyester yarn end has accelerated, the inventory demand has emerged. The operation of staple fiber remains high but does not increase significantly. With the continuation of inventory reduction, attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand processing fees at low prices [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory remains stable, the absolute level is not high, but there is no seasonal inventory reduction, and the price of Thai cup rubber has rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From August 20 to 26, 2025, the prices of naphtha, PX CFR, PTA domestic spot, etc. have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of naphtha has increased from 66.8 to 68.8, and the PTA processing difference has also changed [1]. - **Device Changes**: Sanfangxiang's new device's other 1.6 million - ton production line has started production, and Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton device has been under maintenance [1]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From August 20 to 26, 2025, the prices of Northeast Asian ethylene, MEG outer - disk price, etc. have changed. For example, the MEG outer - disk price has increased from 526 to 536, and the MEG coal - based profit has increased from 421 to 474 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton device has restarted, and Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton device has been under maintenance [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From August 20 to 26, 2025, the prices of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber, low - melting - point staple fiber, etc. have changed. For example, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber has increased from 6555 to 6680, and the short - fiber profit has changed from 19 to - 10 [2]. - **Device and Operation Changes**: Recently, the operation of Chuzhou Xingbang and Ningbo Zhuocheng has increased, and the operation rate has slightly increased to 91.9% [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From August 20 to 26, 2025, the prices of US - dollar Thai standard spot, US - dollar Thai mixed spot, etc. have changed. For example, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot has increased from 1795 to 1830, and the RU main contract price has increased from 15675 to 15885 [3]. - **Inventory and Spread Changes**: The national explicit inventory remains stable, and the spreads such as the difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract have changed [3]. Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From August 20 to 26, 2025, the prices of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia), pure benzene (CFR China), etc. have changed. For example, the price of ethylene has increased from 830 to 840, and the EPS (East China ordinary material) profit has increased from 75 to 275 [6].

PTA装置变化 逸盛海南200万吨检修；恒力徽州500万吨检修。 芳烃橡胶早报 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 2025/0 8/18 66.6 571 833 4670 6770 82.57 262.0 117 139 79.0 72.9 42105 -15 0.45 2025/0 8/19 65.8 575 835 4690 6750 92.26 260.0 128 97 79.0 72.9 37547 -12 0.50 2025/0 8/20 66.8 576 838 4690 6805 85.56 262.0 115 135 79.0 72.9 36545 0 0.70 2025/0 8/21 67.7 585 852 4810 6805 88.48 267.0 156 31 79.0 72.9 33102 15 0.70 2025/0 8/22 67.7 587 857 4870 6865 90.54 270.0 197 38 79.3 72.9 33102 20 0.40 变化 0.0 2 5 60 60.00 2.06 3.0 41 7 0.3 0.0 0 5 -0.3 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views - For PTA, with low processing fees leading to more additional maintenance, and polyester demand expected to stabilize and have upward flexibility, there is a chance to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [3]. - For MEG, the short - term inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the port inventory is expected to remain low. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellite plants [15]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the downstream inventory is continuously reduced, the downstream start - up may continue to rise. Considering the low processing fees, there is an opportunity to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [15]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable with no seasonal decline, and the Thai cup - rubber price rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 14 to August 20, crude oil increased by 1, PX CFR Taiwan increased by 3, PTA inner - market spot remained unchanged, and POY 150D/48F increased by 55. The TA basis decreased by 13, and the production - sales ratio increased by 0.20 [3]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton plant was under maintenance [3]. - **Weekly Outlook**: The short - term TA start - up rate increased, polyester load rose slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate. PX's domestic start - up rate increased slightly, and overseas start - up rate decreased slightly. In the future, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand processing fees [3]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From August 14 to August 20, the price of styrene (CFR China) increased by 5, while the prices of other related products such as ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged or decreased slightly. The domestic profits of EPS, PS decreased by 40 [9]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 14 to August 20, the MEG outer - market price increased by 3, the inner - market price increased by 49, and the coal - based profit increased by 49. The total load and other loads remained unchanged [15]. - **Device Changes**: Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton plant restarted [15]. - **Weekly Outlook**: The domestic start - up rate remained stable, and overseas there were some unexpected maintenance. The port inventory is expected to accumulate in the short - term, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely [15]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Operation Changes**: From August 14 to August 20, the price of some products such as 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber remained stable, and the start - up rate increased slightly to 91.1%. The inventory remained stable, and the downstream start - up rate increased, and the raw material inventory increased while the finished - product inventory decreased [15]. - **Weekly Outlook**: The downstream start - up may continue to rise, and there is an opportunity to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [15]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From August 14 to August 20, the prices of some products such as US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber increased, and the RU main contract and NR main contract prices changed. The weekly changes of some price differences and indicators were also significant [15]. - **Daily View**: The main contradiction is that the national explicit inventory remains stable without seasonal decline, and the Thai cup - rubber price rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [15].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Aromatics and Rubber Morning Report [1] - Report date: August 20, 2025 [1] - Report team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [1] Group 2: Styrene Price and Profit Data - On August 19, 2025, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) was at 825, pure benzene (CFR China) at 747, and styrene (CFR China) at 890. Styrene in Jiangsu was 7280, in South China 7440, and EPS (East China common material) was 8100. PS (East China transparent benzene) was 7700, and ABS (0215A) was 9600 [4]. - Day - on - day changes on August 19: ethylene and pure benzene (CFR) unchanged, styrene (CFR) unchanged, styrene in Jiangsu +10, in South China +10, EPS - 150, PS - 50, ABS unchanged [4]. - Asian spread of pure benzene - naphtha was 161, styrene domestic profit - 292, EPS domestic profit 115, PS domestic profit - 162, ABS domestic profit - 926, all with no day - on - day change except EPS profit - 150 and PS profit - 50 [4]. Group 3: PTA Price and Data - On August 19, 2025, crude oil was 65.8, naphtha 575, PX CFR Taiwan 835, PTA domestic spot 4690, POY 150D/4 6750. Naphtha cracking spread was 92.26, PX processing margin 260.0, PTA processing margin 128, polyester gross profit 97 [12]. - Day - on - day changes: crude oil - 0.8, naphtha +4, PX +2, PTA +20, POY - 20, naphtha cracking spread +9.69, PX processing margin - 2.0, PTA processing margin +11, polyester gross profit - 42 [12]. - PTA spot transaction: average daily transaction basis was 2509(-9). Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton plant was under maintenance [12]. Outlook - Near - term TA start - up increased, polyester load rose slightly, inventory continued to accumulate, basis was weak, and spot processing fee was still low. PX domestic start - up rose slightly, overseas had both maintenance and restart, start - up declined slightly, PXN strengthened, disproportionation and isomerization benefits remained stable, and the US - Asia aromatics spread rebounded slightly. In the future, additional maintenance of TA increased due to low processing fees. Filament sales were weak but there was no further reduction in production in the short term. Bottle - grade PTA inventory decreased continuously at low start - up. Overall, polyester start - up was expected to stabilize and have upward flexibility, supply - demand was expected to improve, and opportunities to widen processing fees on dips could be considered [12]. Group 4: MEG Price and Data - On August 19, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene was 825, MEG outer - market price 523, MEG inner - market price 4458, MEG in East China 4498, MEG far - month price 4455, MEG coal - based profit 372, MEG inner - market cash flow (ethylene) - 622, MEG total load 67.0, coal - based MEG load 80.5, MEG port inventory 54.7, non - coal - based load 60 [12]. - Day - on - day changes: Northeast Asia ethylene unchanged, MEG outer - market price +2, MEG inner - market price +17, MEG in East China +20, MEG far - month price +16, MEG coal - based profit +17, MEG inner - market cash flow (ethylene) unchanged, other loads and inventory unchanged [12]. - MEG spot transaction: basis was around 09(+87). Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton plant restarted [12]. Outlook - Near - term domestic plant restarts were postponed, start - up was stable, there was some unexpected overseas maintenance. Port inventory was expected to accumulate as arrivals increased and shipments were stable. Downstream inventory levels increased, basis was stable, and oil - based benefits improved. In the future, EG supply had postponed restarts and overseas unexpected maintenance, port inventory was expected to remain low with little short - term accumulation pressure. The situation was good and benefits were not low. In the far - month, inventory accumulation was expected due to the return of maintenance and new plant commissioning, but valuation was greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, and it was expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellite plants [12]. Group 5: Polyester Staple Fiber Price and Data - On August 19, 2025, 1.4D cotton - type was 6555, low - melting point staple fiber 7330, virgin hollow 7060, imitation large - denier fiber 5700, pure polyester yarn 12100, polyester - cotton yarn 16300, virgin staple fiber load 91, recycled cotton - type load 50, polyester yarn operation 63, staple fiber profit 53, pure polyester yarn profit - 155, cotton - polyester staple difference 8520, viscose - polyester staple difference 6345 [12]. - Day - on - day changes: 1.4D cotton - type +5, other prices unchanged, loads and operation unchanged, staple fiber profit unchanged, pure polyester yarn profit - 5, cotton - polyester staple difference - 10, viscose - polyester staple difference - 5 [12]. - Spot information: spot price was around 6500, market basis was around 10 - 100 [12]. Outlook - Near - term Ningbo Dafa's technical transformation plant resumed, start - up increased slightly to 91.1%, sales were stable, and inventory remained the same. On the demand side, polyester yarn start - up increased, raw material inventory rose, finished product inventory continued to decline, and benefits were maintained. In the future, as polyester yarn finished product inventory continued to decline, downstream start - up might continue to rise. Although staple fiber supply might also increase, the overall space was limited. Considering that the futures processing fee was still in a low range, opportunities to widen processing fees on dips could be considered [12]. Group 6: Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber Price and Data - On August 19, 2025, US - dollar Thai standard spot was 1805, US - dollar Thai mixed spot 1805, RMB mixed rubber 14630, Shanghai whole milk 14680, Shanghai 3L 14850, Thai latex 54.7, Thai cup lump 49.8, Yunnan latex 14300, Hainan latex 15700, butadiene rubber 11800, RU main contract 15875, NR main contract 12690 [12]. - Day - on - day changes: US - dollar Thai standard +5, US - dollar Thai mixed +5, RMB mixed rubber +50, Shanghai whole milk +95, Shanghai 3L +70, Thai latex +1, other prices unchanged or with small changes [12]. - Mixed - RU main contract basis was - 1245, US - dollar Thai standard - NR main contract 274, RU09 - RU01 - 750, RU main contract - NR main contract 3185, latex - cup lump 4.9, whole milk - mixed 50, 3L - mixed 220, mixed - butadiene rubber 2830, Thai standard processing profit 15, mixed internal - external price difference - 140, SHFE RU warehouse receipts 179570 [12]. - Day - on - day changes: mixed - RU main contract - 5, US - dollar Thai standard - NR main contract - 9, other spreads and profits with small changes or unchanged [12]. Outlook - Main contradictions: national visible inventory was stable at a low absolute level but did not decline seasonally; Thai cup lump price rebounded due to rain affecting tapping. Strategy: wait - and - see [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - term TA开工 is rising, polyester load is slightly increasing, inventory is accumulating, and basis is weak. The subsequent supply - demand may improve, and it's advisable to focus on opportunities to expand processing margins at low prices [2] - For MEG, the near - term domestic device restarts are postponed, and overseas there are unexpected maintenance. The port inventory is expected to remain low in the short term, and it's advisable to focus on the satellite restart progress [2] - For polyester staple fiber, the near - term start - up is slightly increasing, and downstream demand is improving. Considering the low processing margins on the disk, it's advisable to focus on opportunities to expand processing margins at low prices [2] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price has rebounded. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2] - For styrene, price data for related products are provided, but no clear overall view is given Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Price and data: PTA spot daily average basis is 2509(-11), and the change in relevant data from August 12 - 18 shows fluctuations. For example, the PX CFR price has changed by 0.7, and the PTA internal - market spot price has changed in its own range [2] - Device changes: Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device is under maintenance [2] - Market situation: Near - term TA开工 is rising, polyester load is slightly increasing, inventory is accumulating, basis is weak, and spot processing margins are still low. PX domestic开工 is slightly rising, overseas maintenance and restart co - exist, PXN is strengthening, and the US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon spread is slightly rising [2] - Outlook: TA additional maintenance is increasing due to low processing margins. The filament sales are weak, but there will be no further short - term production cuts. The bottle - chip inventory is decreasing under low start - up. Overall, polyester开工 is expected to stabilize and has upward potential, and supply - demand may improve [2] MEG - Price and data: MEG spot basis is around 09(+87), and the change in relevant data from August 12 - 18 shows that some prices have decreased, such as the MEG external - market price which has dropped by 2 [2] - Device changes: Xinjiang Tianying's 15 - thousand - ton device has restarted [2] - Market situation: Near - term domestic device restarts are postponed, and overseas there are unexpected maintenance. The port inventory is expected to accumulate due to increased arrivals and stable shipments. Downstream stocking levels are rising, basis is stable, and oil - based profits have recovered [2] - Outlook: EG supply has postponed restarts and overseas unexpected maintenance. The short - term inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the port inventory is expected to remain low. The long - term is expected to accumulate inventory, and it is expected to fluctuate widely, depending on the satellite restart progress [2] Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and data: The price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber on August 12 was 6570, and there were slight price changes in subsequent days. The daily change on August 18 shows that some prices remained unchanged, and some profits increased [2] - Device changes: Ningbo Dafa's technical - reform device has resumed operation [2] - Market situation: Near - term start - up has slightly increased to 91.1%, sales are stable, and inventory has remained unchanged. Downstream polyester yarn start - up has increased, raw - material stocking has increased, finished - product inventory has decreased, and profits have been maintained [2] - Outlook: As the downstream finished - product inventory decreases, downstream start - up may continue to rise. Although staple - fiber supply may also increase, the overall space is limited. Considering the low processing margins on the disk, focus on opportunities to expand processing margins at low prices [2] Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Price and data: The price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber on August 12 was 1805, and there were price changes in subsequent days. The daily and weekly changes in various price spreads and related data are also provided [2] - Market situation: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price has rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping [2] - Strategy: Wait and see [2] Styrene - Price and data: From August 12 - 18, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 825, while the prices of other related products such as pure benzene and styrene showed different degrees of decline. The daily change on August 18 shows that some prices decreased, and some profits increased [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with low processing fees, additional maintenance has increased. Although the sales of filament are weak, significant further production cuts are unlikely in the short - term. The bottle - chip inventory has been continuously decreasing with low operation. Overall, the polyester operation is expected to stabilize and has upward potential. There is a chance to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [1]. - For MEG, there are some postponed restarts in domestic plants and unexpected overseas maintenance. The port inventory is expected to remain low in the short - term with limited inventory accumulation pressure. The situation is good with decent profits. In the long - term, inventory accumulation is expected due to the return from maintenance and new plant commissioning, and the valuation is greatly affected by the cost side. It should be viewed as a wide - range fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellite plants [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the finished - product inventory of polyester yarn has been continuously decreasing, the downstream operation may continue to rise. Although the supply of staple fiber may also increase, the overall space is limited. Considering the low processing fees on the futures market, there is a chance to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low level but shows no seasonal decline. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber has rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 11 - 15, crude oil decreased by 0.9, PTA spot price increased by 10, and the processing fee decreased by 13. The average daily transaction basis was 2509(-13) [1]. - **Device Changes**: Jiaxing Petrochemical's 2.2 million - ton plant restarted, Shandong Weilian's 2.5 million - ton plant restarted, and Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 million - ton plant was under maintenance [1]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 11 - 15, the MEG outer - market price decreased by 1, the inner - market price decreased by 6, and the coal - based profit decreased by 37.68. The basis was around 09(+87) [3]. - **Device Changes**: Zhejiang Petrochemical's 800,000 - ton plant restarted, and Shenghong's 1.9 million - ton plant stopped operating due to an accident [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 11 - 15, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 50, and the profit increased by 43. The spot price was around 6468, and the market basis was around 09 - 0 [3]. - **Device Changes**: Ningbo Dafa's technical - renovation plant resumed operation, and the operation rate slightly increased to 91.1% [3]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From August 11 - 15, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 25, and the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 410. The weekly changes were 35 and 470 respectively [4]. - **Other Indicators**: The national explicit inventory remained stable, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [4]. Sty，rene - **Price Changes**: From August 11 - 15, the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased by 5, and the domestic profit increased by 28 [6].