Report on Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Rubber 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **PTA**: Near - term TA partial device load reduction,开工 slightly decreased, polyester load increased, inventory slightly accumulated, basis strengthened, and spot processing fee slightly repaired. With PX domestic start - up rising and overseas maintenance implemented, PXN widened, disproportionation benefit weakened, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia shrank. In the future, TA's low processing fee has lasted for a long time, and the improvement of terminal data supports the continuation of polyester start - up. Pay attention to additional maintenance, and the processing fee center may gradually repair due to limited far - month production[10]. - **MEG**: Near - term domestic oil - based restart, load increased, overseas partial device restarted, port inventory decreased at the beginning of the week, and the arrival forecast increased during the week, basis weakened, and coal - based benefit and ratio decreased. In the long - term, due to high existing start - up and new device production, it will enter a continuous inventory accumulation stage, with a bearish long - term pattern. However, after the weakening of coal - based benefit and ratio, there may be partial negative feedback on the supply side, and attention should be paid to coal - based cost support[10]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Near - term Fujian Shanli restarted, start - up increased to 96.8%, sales decreased, and inventory remained stable. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory and finished product inventory increased, and the benefit weakened slightly. In the future, the benefit and start - up of polyester yarn have not improved significantly. The export of staple fiber maintains high growth, the start - up remains high due to good spot benefits, the overall inventory pressure is limited, and the disk processing fee is not high. Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the spread at low prices and the situation of warehouse receipts[10]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber**: The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup rubber remains stable while rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see[10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, crude oil decreased by 0.9, naphtha increased by 1, PX CFR Taiwan remained unchanged, PTA inner - market spot decreased by 15, and other related indicators also had corresponding changes. The average daily transaction basis of PTA spot was 2601(-76). The 2.5 - million - ton device of Shandong Weilian reduced its load[10]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged, MEG outer - market price decreased by 2, MEG inner - market price decreased by 28, and other related indicators also changed. The basis of MEG spot was around 01(+72). The 300,000 - ton device of Tongliao restarted[10]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 30, and other related prices remained unchanged. The spot price was around 6321, and the market basis was around 12 - 10. Fujian Shanli restarted, and the start - up increased to 96.8%[10]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard decreased by 65 on a weekly basis, and other related prices also had corresponding changes. The daily and weekly changes of some indicators such as the price difference between different types of rubber and the processing profit were also given[10]. Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene and related products changed. For example, the price of pure benzene (East China) decreased by 70 on a daily basis, and the price of PS (East China transparent benzene) decreased by 50 on a daily basis[3].

芳烃橡胶早报 | 苯 乙 烯 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 乙烯(CFR东北 | 纯苯（CFR中 | 纯苯（华东） | 加氢苯（山 | 苯乙烯（CFR | | 苯乙烯（江 | 苯乙烯（华 | EPS(华东普通 | | | 亚） | 国） | | 东） | 中国） | | 苏） | 南） | 料） | | 2025/10/16 | 785 | 692 | 5615 | 5480 | 815 | | 6535 | 6695 | 7550 | | 2025/10/17 | 780 | 684 | 5615 | 5380 | 800 | | 6495 | 6610 | 7550 | | 2025/10/20 | 780 | 684 | 5535 | 5250 | 785 | | 6430 | 6570 | 7550 | | 2025/10/21 | 780 | 674 | 5435 | 5250 | 795 | | 6465 | 6550 | 7550 | | 2025/ ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★☆ - PX: ★★☆ - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ - Methanol: ★★★ - Urea: ★★★ - PVC: ★★★ - Caustic Soda: ★★☆ - Soda Ash: ★★☆ - Glass: ★★☆ [1] Core Views - The futures of olefins and polyolefins showed mixed trends, with polypropylene facing supply pressure and polyethylene having potential demand growth [2]. - Pure benzene and styrene futures were in a consolidation pattern, with some improvement in the supply - demand situation expected in the third quarter [3]. - PX and PTA prices dropped slightly, while ethylene glycol was expected to oscillate, and short - fiber and bottle - chip had different supply - demand and price trends [5]. - Methanol and urea futures had different trends, with methanol affected by port and inland factors and urea in a supply - demand balance with limited upward drive [6]. - PVC and caustic soda futures were expected to be weak, facing supply and demand challenges [7]. - Soda ash and glass futures were under pressure, with soda ash facing supply pressure and glass having cost support [8]. Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene prices were supported by low inventory and shutdown news, while downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [2]. - Polyethylene production enterprises had a strong intention to raise prices due to increased demand and macro - economic support, and polypropylene faced supply pressure and weak demand [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures oscillated, with a slight increase in domestic production, a decrease in imports, and a small rebound in processing margins [3]. - Styrene futures were in a narrow - range fluctuation, with a decline in enterprise开工 and a decrease in port inventory, but the supply - demand contradiction still existed [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices dropped slightly, with PTA装置 restarting and PX having a positive outlook in the third quarter [5]. - Ethylene glycol was expected to oscillate, with an increase in industry开工 and a decrease in port inventory [5]. - Short - fiber开工 increased, with stable supply - demand and was expected to be bullish in the medium - term, while bottle - chip had improved orders but low processing margins [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures were weakly oscillating, with an increase in port inventory and a decrease in coal - to - methanol profits in the northwest [6]. - Urea futures were oscillating firmly, with a weak agricultural demand season, a small decrease in port inventory, and a short - term supply - demand balance [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC futures were in a narrow - range oscillation, with high supply, poor demand, and an expected weak trend [7]. - Caustic soda futures were under pressure, with high supply, general non - aluminum demand, and a long - term supply pressure [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash futures dropped again due to weak spot and high supply, and were expected to be under pressure [8]. - Glass futures were weakly running, with an increase in industry profits and capacity, and were expected to be supported by cost [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the chemical industry, specifically recommending Minsheng Chemical's "Five Tigers": Shengquan Group, Guocera Materials, Guoguang Co., Amway Co., and Polymeric Co. [1][4] Core Insights - The chemical market is active, presenting a favorable time for growth stock allocation. The demand for phosphate fertilizers remains stable, with high prices for phosphate rock expected to continue due to increased entry barriers and a delayed supply release until after 2026. Large phosphate chemical companies with integrated advantages are recommended for investment [1][2] - The report highlights the performance of specific chemical products, with sulfur, sulfuric acid, synthetic ammonia, and potassium chloride showing significant price increases [1][21] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The basic chemical industry index closed at 3470.21 points, down 0.94% from February 21, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.28% [10] - Among 462 stocks in the chemical sector, 40% saw weekly gains while 58% experienced declines [16] Key Chemical Sub-Industries - **Phosphate Fertilizers**: Demand remains stable with high prices expected to persist due to supply constraints [1] - **Tire Industry**: The operating rate for full steel tires is 68.15%, up 2.7% from the previous week, indicating a recovery in production [34] - **Refrigerants**: Prices for refrigerants like R22 and R134a are stable, with R134a showing a strong market performance due to tight supply [39][41] Price Trends - The report tracks significant price movements in various chemical products, with sulfur prices increasing by 21% to 1980 yuan/ton, and synthetic ammonia rising by 11% to 2680 yuan/ton [22][24] - Conversely, international gasoline prices fell by 14%, reflecting broader market trends [24] Company Performance Predictions - Guoguang Co. is projected to have an EPS of 0.99 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 13, while Shengquan Group is expected to have an EPS of 1.56 yuan with a PE ratio of 18 [4]