证券研究报告 | 2025年11月26日 2025年11月27日 医药生物周报（25 年第 46 周） 优于大市 化脓性汗腺炎治疗药物梳理 本周医药板块表现弱于整体市场，医药商业板块领跌。本周全部 A 股下跌 4.32%（总市值加权平均），沪深 300 下跌 3.77%，中小板指下跌 5.10%， 创业板指下跌 6.15%，生物医药板块整体下跌 6.88%，生物医药板块表 现弱于整体市场。分子板块来看，化学制药下跌 7.02%，生物制品下跌 7.46%，医疗服务下跌 6.90%，医疗器械下跌 6.38%，医药商业下跌 7.67%，中药下跌 6.46%。医药生物市盈率（TTM）36.69x，处于近 5 年历史估值的 78.22%分位数。 化脓性汗腺炎治疗药物梳理。化脓性汗腺炎（HS）是一种慢性、复发性、 毁容性、炎症性皮肤病。一般认为西方人群的真实患病率~1%，美国确诊 HS 患者~32 万人（其中~20 万为中重度患者）；中国 HS 患病率~0.03%（~40 万人，已被列入第二批罕见病目录），其中中重度患者~30 万人。HS 一线 疗法以抗菌为主，二线生物制剂疗法主要为阿达木单抗（TNFα）、司库奇 尤单抗 ...

Core Viewpoint - MoonLake, a biotechnology company with a market value of nearly $4 billion, experienced a significant stock drop of 89% following disappointing Phase III clinical trial results for its experimental skin disease drug, sonelokimab [1][3]. Company Summary - MoonLake's sonelokimab showed a response rate 17 percentage points higher than the placebo group in the VELA-1 trial and a 9 percentage point difference in the VELA-2 trial, with treatment response rates of 35% and 36% compared to 18% and 26% for the placebo [4]. - Analysts expressed disappointment with the trial results, leading to significant downgrades in investment ratings and target prices from major banks, including Stifel and RBC [4][5]. - Following the trial data release, MoonLake's market capitalization dropped over $3.5 billion, from $3.98 billion to under $500 million [5]. Industry Context - The market for hidradenitis suppurativa (HS), the condition targeted by sonelokimab, is projected to grow from $2 billion to $15 billion by 2035 due to a large number of untreated patients [7]. - UCB SA, a competitor, saw its stock rise significantly after the trial results, with its drug Bimzelx showing a higher adjusted efficacy compared to sonelokimab [5][6]. - UCB's Bimzelx has been a key growth area, with 21% of its global net sales coming from HS treatment [6].

Core Viewpoint - MoonLake, a biotechnology company, experienced a significant stock drop of 89% after disappointing Phase III clinical trial results for its drug sonelokimab, leading to drastic reductions in target prices by major banks [2][5][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - MoonLake's market capitalization fell from approximately $3.98 billion to under $500 million following the trial results [7]. - The drug sonelokimab showed a response rate of 35% and 36% in two trials, compared to 18% and 26% in the placebo groups, which analysts deemed underwhelming [5][6]. - Analysts from Stifel and RBC downgraded MoonLake's ratings and target prices significantly, with Stifel lowering its target from $77 to $13 and RBC from $67 to $10 [6][7]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, UCB SA, a competitor, saw its stock rise over 20%, benefiting from MoonLake's poor results [7]. - The market for hidradenitis suppurativa (HS), which sonelokimab targets, is projected to grow from $2 billion to $15 billion by 2035, indicating potential for future competition [7]. Group 3: Acquisition Interest - Earlier in June, Merck had made a non-binding offer exceeding $3 billion for MoonLake, which was rejected, highlighting MoonLake's strong negotiating position at that time [8]. - Merck is actively seeking to diversify its revenue sources as its blockbuster drug Keytruda faces patent expiration in 2028 [9].