创新药产业链行业研究框架培训 20250815 摘要 创新药行业迎来新支持周期，医保基金结余稳健，创新药支出占比提升 空间大，2018 年至 2024 年占比约为 2%，预示未来增长潜力。 中国创新药业务开发（BD）活跃度显著提升，出海交易额占比接近或超 过全球 20%，2025 年上半年接近 30%，提升中国公司估值。 创新药估值需采用风险调整后的净现值法（RNPV），PS 倍数受利润率、 达峰速度、折现率及永续增长率等因素影响，目前合理 PS 倍数约为 5 倍，需根据产品特性调整。 中国创新链投资框架包括上游生命科学服务（仪器设备、试剂耗材）和 中游 CRO/CDMO（研发生产外包），形成完整的医药产业结构，推动 产业升级。 CDMO 专注于临床和商业化阶段的药物生产及工艺优化，医药行业呈现 横向细分趋势，创新药产业链逐渐垂直整合。 中国创新药研发景气度回暖，资金来源多元化，生物医药投融资在 2024 年二三季度触底后反弹，港股创新药 IPO 热潮重现，A 股未盈利 企业上市取得突破。 BD 首付款成为创新药研发投入的重要资金来源，甚至超过生物医药投 融资，缩短研发周期，提高回报率，增强行业创新意愿。早期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the medical services industry [6][49]. Core Views - The medical services sector has shown a decline of 2.22% this week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.23% [2][12]. - The report highlights the recent policy support for brain-computer interface technology, indicating potential growth in this area [48]. - The medical services sector's current PE ratio is 37.54, with a historical valuation at the 28.04 percentile, suggesting it is relatively undervalued compared to its historical performance [4][30]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The medical services sector reported a decline of 2.22%, with the overall medical and biological sector down by 0.84% [2][24]. - Notable performers in the medical services sector include Nanmo Biology (+42.5%) and Innovative Medical (+18.0%), while underperformers include Kailaiying (-12.1%) and Ruizhi Medicine (-6.6%) [3][29]. Valuation Metrics - The current PE (ttm) for the medical services sector is 37.54, with a historical maximum of 40.26 and a minimum of 20.92 over the past year [4][30]. - The current PB (lf) is 3.50, with historical extremes of 3.77 and 2.06 [4][30]. Industry Dynamics - The 11th batch of national drug centralized procurement has been initiated, with a focus on optimizing reporting rules for medical institutions [46][47]. - Shanghai has introduced measures to promote the high-quality development of commercial health insurance, enhancing the accessibility and affordability of innovative drugs and devices [46][48]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth areas such as ADC CDMO and peptide CDMO in the pharmaceutical outsourcing sector, with companies like WuXi AppTec and Haoyuan Pharmaceutical highlighted [49]. - It also recommends looking at companies with expected improvements in profitability, such as Aier Eye Hospital and Dian Diagnostics [49][50].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 920 million yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.48%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 26.54% to 72 million yuan [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The front-end business (drug research) generated revenue of 154 million yuan, down 7.59%, with block revenue at 136 million yuan (down 4.71%) and CRO revenue at 18 million yuan (down 24.69%) [2] - The back-end business (drug development and commercialization) achieved revenue of 765 million yuan, an increase of 32.27%, with block revenue at 217 million yuan (down 8.80%) and CDMO revenue at 548 million yuan (up 60.92%) [2] - The gross margin for the front-end business was 57.29%, down 7.45 percentage points, while the back-end business gross margin was 25.69%, down 8.30 percentage points [2] Group 2: Strategic Focus and Financial Management - The company is focusing on revenue scale expansion and nurturing strategic clients and key projects, leading to a higher increase in operating costs compared to revenue growth [2] - The company improved cash flow management, with net cash flow from operating activities totaling 467 million yuan, an increase of 240.62% [3] - Revenue from multinational corporations (MNCs) reached 367 million yuan, up 69.73%, enhancing business sustainability [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in performance as the pharmaceutical investment and financing environment improves, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being 172 million, 228 million, and 297 million yuan respectively [3] - The company is shifting its project focus towards the back-end, with over 1,100 early-stage projects and 53 phase 3 and commercialization projects serviced in the first half of the year [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Chinese Economy and Various Industries**: The records discuss the overall economic performance of China and specific sectors such as food and beverage, light industry, electric two-wheelers, textiles, and pharmaceuticals. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth and Projections**: China's economic growth rate for the first half of 2025 reached 5.3%, exceeding the annual target of 5.0%. A slowdown to approximately 4.8% is expected in the second half due to structural adjustments [5][1][6]. 2. **Inflation and Foreign Investment**: Global credit expansion and rising inflation are favorable for pushing domestic inflation in China, potentially attracting foreign investment as the RMB faces appreciation pressure [6][1]. 3. **Food and Beverage Sector**: Focus on growth categories and valuation shifts in the food and beverage sector, with recommendations for leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye. The introduction of national fertility subsidies is expected to positively impact consumption [8][1]. 4. **Light Industry Opportunities**: The light industry is benefiting from policy changes, particularly in the paper and packaging sector. Recommendations include companies like Sun Paper and Jiulong Paper [9][10]. 5. **Electric Two-Wheeler Market**: The electric two-wheeler sector is seeing government subsidies, with a focus on companies like Yadea and Aima Technology, which are expected to perform well in terms of sales [12][1]. 6. **Textile and Apparel Sector**: Brands like Nike are seeing improvements in inventory and channel issues, with a recommendation for manufacturers like Jiuxing Holdings due to strong order growth [14][1]. 7. **Pharmaceutical Industry Trends**: The innovative drug sector is highlighted as a hot market, with strong demand from global pharmaceutical companies for Chinese innovations. Recommendations include focusing on CXO and upstream supply chains [33][34]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Debt and Deflation Measures**: China is implementing measures to stabilize the currency and boost stock indices to address debt and deflation issues, which have improved market confidence [2][1]. 2. **Impact of External Factors on Domestic Markets**: The records discuss how external factors, such as U.S. tariffs and interest rate changes, are influencing domestic industries, particularly in the appliance and tool sectors [19][20]. 3. **Tourism and Hospitality Sector**: The hotel industry is stable, with economic hotels outperforming mid-to-high-end hotels. The opening of the Shenbei High-Speed Railway is expected to boost tourism in the Changbai Mountain area [37][41]. 4. **Agricultural Sector Dynamics**: The pig farming industry is undergoing supply adjustments, with a target reduction in breeding stock, which may lead to higher prices in the future [42][1]. 5. **Extreme Weather Effects on Agriculture**: Extreme weather conditions are impacting crop production, with potential implications for grain prices and agricultural companies like Longping High-Tech [44][1]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and sector-specific opportunities in China.

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is showing strong performance in the innovative drug sector, with significant price increases in related ETFs and stocks, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on August 5, with the innovative drug ETF (520880) rising nearly 2% at one point and currently up 1.16%, indicating strong buying confidence [1]. - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Select Index has increased by 101.58% year-to-date as of July 31, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index (23.50%) and the Hang Seng Tech Index (22.05%) by 78.08 and 79.53 percentage points, respectively [6]. - Individual stocks in the innovative drug sector have also shown strong gains, with notable increases such as Ascentage Pharma-B up nearly 5% and several others like Innovent Biologics and BeiGene rising over 3% [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, marking the smallest increase since October of the previous year, which has led to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will begin a series of three consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts starting in September, with the possibility of a 50 basis point cut if unemployment rises further [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The innovative drug sector is expected to benefit significantly from the anticipated interest rate cuts, as these stocks are sensitive to interest rate changes, prompting market participants to position themselves ahead of potential valuation increases for drug companies [3]. - CITIC Securities highlights that China's innovative drug development has made significant progress, and recent measures to support high-quality development in this sector will further enhance growth prospects [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the innovative pharmaceutical ETF (560900) has shown significant growth in both scale and trading activity, indicating strong market interest in the sector [1][2] - As of July 31, the innovative pharmaceutical ETF (560900) experienced a scale increase of 28.2 million yuan over the past two weeks, with a notable weekly share increase of 15 million shares, ranking first among comparable funds [1] - The underlying index, the CSI Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry Index (931152), rose by 0.26%, with key constituent stocks such as Ganli Pharmaceutical (603087) and Yifan Pharmaceutical (002019) showing substantial price increases of 6.48% and 3.67% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - In terms of capital inflow, the innovative pharmaceutical ETF (560900) recorded net inflows for 4 out of the last 5 trading days, totaling 16.87 million yuan [2] - Ganli Pharmaceutical's stock price surged over 7% on August 1, following positive developments in its international expansion, including approvals for its winter insulin formulation in Argentina and Malaysia [2] - Ganli Pharmaceutical's half-year profit forecast indicates a net profit of 600 million to 640 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 100.73% to 114.12%, driven by significant revenue increases and effective cost management [2] Group 3 - The innovative pharmaceutical ETF (560900) closely tracks the CSI Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry Index, which selects up to 50 representative listed companies involved in innovative drug research and development [3] - The rise of AI-driven technology is creating new investment opportunities, prompting firms like Morgan Asset Management to integrate their global technology investment products to help investors capitalize on these trends [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF (159570), which has seen significant inflows and a record scale of over 11.9 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest in the innovative drug sector [1][3] - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) has established a "new drug launch price mechanism" to encourage pharmaceutical innovation, signaling a shift from cost control to promoting high-quality innovation in drug pricing [3][5] - The majority of the index constituents of the Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF have shown positive price movements, with notable gains from companies such as CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (up over 5%) and CanSino Biologics (up over 3%) [3][4] Group 2 - Institutional analysts express a continued optimistic outlook on the innovative drug industry chain, emphasizing the competitive edge of domestic innovative drugs and the increasing recognition from global multinational corporations [5][6] - Recent significant business development (BD) and merger and acquisition (M&A) activities in the innovative drug sector, including AstraZeneca's potential $15 billion deal and the collaboration between Hengrui Medicine and GSK, further catalyze the market [6][7] - The NHSA's recent announcements regarding the optimization of centralized procurement policies and the steady progress of innovative drug directory applications indicate a supportive regulatory environment for the innovative drug sector [6][7]

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has recently seen a continuous rise, driven by positive sentiment towards innovative drugs and improved financing data, with the medical research outsourcing segment leading the gains [1] - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index increased by 7.84%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.13 percentage points, with medical research outsourcing and raw materials rising by 14.23% and 9.30% respectively [1] - The industry valuation has increased, with a TTM PE ratio of approximately 52.93 times, still at a relatively low level compared to recent years, indicating potential investment opportunities in the innovative drug supply chain [1] Group 2 - The Biopharmaceutical ETF (512290) tracks the CS Biomedicine Index (930726), which selects listed companies involved in biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, and medical devices from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to reflect the overall performance of the biopharmaceutical sector [1] - The CS Biomedicine Index primarily includes representative enterprises in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries, effectively showcasing the growth and innovation characteristics of China's biopharmaceutical sector [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Biopharmaceutical ETF Connect C (006757) and Guotai Zhongzheng Biopharmaceutical ETF Connect A (006756) for exposure to this sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance and liquidity of the Science and Technology Innovation (Sci-Tech) Pharmaceutical ETF managed by Harvest, indicating significant growth in both trading volume and fund shares over the past year [2][4]. Group 1: Liquidity and Trading Performance - The Sci-Tech Pharmaceutical ETF by Harvest recorded a turnover rate of 15.19% during trading, with a transaction volume of 30.598 million yuan, reflecting active market participation [2]. - As of July 25, the average daily trading volume over the past week was 46.0799 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [2]. - The fund's shares increased by 67.5 million over the past year, also ranking first among comparable funds [2]. Group 2: Fund Performance and Returns - The net value of the Sci-Tech Pharmaceutical ETF increased by 52.17% over the past year, placing it in the top 16.41% among 2,938 index equity funds [2]. - Since its inception, the fund achieved a maximum monthly return of 23.29%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains lasting 5 months and a maximum cumulative increase of 23.50% [2]. - The average return during the months of increase was 7.43% [2]. Group 3: Key Holdings and Market Outlook - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Biopharmaceutical Index accounted for 50.3% of the index, with leading companies including United Imaging Healthcare, BeiGene, and Huatai Medical [2][4]. - Based on the current fundamentals of the pharmaceutical sector, which has undergone four years of adjustment, the market outlook suggests a positive trend for innovative drugs and the overall pharmaceutical sector [4][5]. - The recommendation is to focus on innovative drugs as the primary investment theme, while also considering sectors like CRO&CDMO and specialty raw materials that are expected to perform well [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on innovative drugs and the industry chain, recommending continuous attention to this sector [1][5][24]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the sustained high prosperity of innovative drugs, with a focus on companies likely to see a revaluation, such as Jiangsu Heng Rui Medicine, Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group, 3SBio, and Huadong Medicine. It also emphasizes Biopharma/Biotech companies with innovative pipelines entering a growth phase, including PATEO, Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, and others [1][5][24]. - The A-share pharmaceutical sector outperformed the market in the third week of July 2025, with a 4.0% increase compared to a 0.7% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index. The report notes that the premium of the pharmaceutical sector relative to all A-shares is currently at a normal level of 86.8% [7][25][16]. - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector showed outstanding performance, with the Hang Seng Healthcare index rising by 12.0% and the Hong Kong Biotechnology index increasing by 13.6% during the same period [21][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Continuous Focus on Innovative Drugs and Industry Chain - The report emphasizes the ongoing high demand for innovative drugs and recommends companies such as Heng Rui Medicine, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, and others for potential investment [1][5][24]. 2. Performance of A-Shares Pharmaceutical Sector - In the third week of July 2025, the A-share pharmaceutical sector led with a 4.0% increase, outperforming the overall market. Notable sub-sectors included chemical raw materials and chemical preparations, with gains of 7.0% and 6.8% respectively [7][11][25]. 3. Performance of Hong Kong and U.S. Pharmaceutical Sectors - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector performed exceptionally well, with significant gains in the Hang Seng Healthcare and Biotechnology indices. In contrast, the U.S. pharmaceutical sector underperformed, with a decline of 2.5% in the S&P 500 Healthcare Select Sector [21][25].