Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate will remain in a tight balance, and the price will fluctuate within a certain range with an upward bias [2][4] Summary by Related Sections Market Performance - Last week, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract was 176,040 yuan/ton, with a decrease in trading volume, a slight increase in positions, and a slight increase in the net long-short ratio. The inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 10 lots to 38,461 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 172,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric and industrial carbon remained at 3,500 yuan/ton. The downstream replenishment demand was strong, but the market inquiry and actual transactions were still relatively light, and the spot sentiment was cautious [2] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the prices of various raw materials increased compared with February 13th. The SMM weekly operating rate rose to 49.75% (an increase of 3.73% compared with February 12th), and the weekly total output increased to 21,822 tons (an increase of 560 tons), indicating a marginal increase in supply [3] - **Demand**: The demand showed differentiation. Last week, the production and inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production and inventory of ternary materials decreased. As of February 8th, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales dropped to 36.3%, at a relatively low level. In January, the total production of power and energy storage batteries was 168.0 GWh, a month-on-month decrease of 16.7% and a year-on-year increase of 55.9%; the sales volume was 148.8 GWh, a month-on-month decrease of 25.4% and a year-on-year increase of 85.1%. The production and sales of energy storage cells were booming, and the inventory was at a low level, which was a structural highlight [3] - **Inventory**: Last week, the social inventory of the four SMM sample areas decreased by 1,690 tons to 44,520 tons, and the total sample weekly inventory decreased to 100,093 tons, at a relatively low level. The total inventory days decreased to 28.2 days, and the overall situation maintained a tight balance [3] Macro Policy - **Domestic Policy**: The subsidy for car trade-ins and the export tax rebate for batteries directly stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro liquidity. The management method for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries raises the recycling threshold, eliminates backward production capacity, optimizes the domestic supply structure in the long term, and raises the cost support center. The development of Qinghai Salt Lake, the "14th Five-Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form a synergy to support the long-term supply and demand balance [4] - **International Policy**: On February 20th, the US Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA tariff was illegal, and the White House imposed a 15% temporary tariff. The tariff on energy storage cells decreased from 48.4% to 43.4%, which improved the export profit margin and was beneficial to demand during the window period [4]