Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner [2]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mining news [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Building Materials - **Production suspension situation**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel producers' suspension time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, with resumption expected between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with an expected daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the suspension [1][2]. - **Real estate transaction data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - **Market situation**: The price of building materials continued to decline and reached a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to move down. This year's winter storage was sluggish, with weak price support [2]. - **Follow - up focus**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [2]. Aluminum Ingots - **Macro - situation**: After US President Trump dismissed a Federal Reserve governor, market confidence in the Fed wavered. Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible rate cut in September, and the market currently expects an over 87% chance of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September [1]. - **Demand situation**: The demand side is the core concern. Some enterprises have started to stock up for the peak - season orders. The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% last week. Different sub - sectors showed varying degrees of change, with some increasing and the regenerative aluminum operating rate slightly decreasing by 0.1 percentage points to 53.0% [2]. - **Inventory situation**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas increased by 4,500 tons to 463,500 tons on Tuesday. The traditional off - season led to weak demand and continuous inventory accumulation. Holders were not optimistic about the future premium and actively sold, suppressing the spot premium [2]. - **Market outlook**: The price is expected to run at a high level recently, and attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend. The off - season and its actual impact will still put pressure on the upside [3]. - **Follow - up focus**: Macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mining resumption, and consumption release [3].

成材：原料走强 钢价跟涨 逻辑：中钢协数据显示，8 月中旬重点钢企粗钢平均日产 211.5 万吨， 日产环比增长 2.0%；钢材库存量 1567 万吨，环比上一旬增加 60 万吨， 增长 4.0%。8 月 25 日，上海市住建委、市财政局等六部门联合印发《关 于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》，出台包括调减住房限购、优化 住房公积金、优化个人住房信贷以及完善个人住房房产税等政策。据国际 船舶网，8 月 18 日至 8 月 24 日，全球船厂共接获 16+4 艘新船订单。其 中中国船厂接获 8+3 艘新船订单；韩国船厂接获 6 艘新船订单，美国船厂 也获得相关新船订单。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 成材昨日反弹上涨，一方面焦煤涨幅较大带动成材跟涨，另一方面上 海优化调整本市地产政策措施，A 股地产板块异动，间接带动成材价格上 行。目前成材面临的问题是下游偏弱，是否地产政策的调整能带动价格走 强仍需进一步观察，且近期钢价走势受原料影响较大。 观点：短期波动较大，震荡偏弱运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；供给侧减产情况；下游需求情况。 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 晨报 成材 原材料： 冯艳 ...

晨报 成材 成材：供需双弱 钢价整理 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 逻辑：上周，247 家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.25%，环比增加 0.03 个百分点；钢厂盈利率 64.94%，环比减少 0.86 个百分点；日均铁水产量 240.75 万吨，环比增加 0.09 万吨。上周，全国 90 家独立电弧炉钢厂平 均产能利用率 56.67%，环比下降 0.72 个百分点，同比上升 22.48 个百分 点。平均开工率 75.69%，环比下降 0.69 个百分点，同比上升 24.72 个百 分点。上周，唐山 87 条型钢生产线：实际开工产线为 15 条，整体开工率 25.42%，较上周下降 27.12%；产能利用率为 49.23%，较上周相比上升 0.89%。根据调研结果反馈，未来短期 45%的河北唐山钢厂计划检修，但 需等通知，32%的钢厂确定检修，23%的钢厂不进行检修。河北唐山目前已 知日均铁水影响量总计约 4.18 万吨，总铁水量 37-4 ...

晨报 铝锭 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 原材料： 冯艳成 有色金属：于梦雪 基本面来看，供应方面变化不大，电解铝运行产量稳中小增。需求方 面，"金九银十"旺季临近，但目前在淡季影响下，终端到加工 ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：海外降息预期摇摆 铝价区间运行 投资咨询业务资格： 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏弱调整。宏观上美联储会议记录显示，在上月美联储 决定维持利率不变的决策中，虽然有两位政策制定者表示反 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a range-bound manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend. Attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [1][3]. - The aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is currently in the off - season with inventory accumulation, and the upward space is limited by the off - season demand pressure. Short - term support comes from the interest rate cut expectation. Focus on macro sentiment, downstream start - up, and the trend of inventory - consumption ratio [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel production enterprises' shutdown and maintenance time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an expected impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, among 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has stopped production since January 5, and most of the others will stop production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 1620 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3]. Aluminum Ingots - Last week, the aluminum price was at a high level. The rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut on the macro - level boosted the basic metals, while the US imposing tariffs on India and the India - Russia aluminum cooperation agreement increased the funds' risk - aversion sentiment [2]. - In terms of supply, the operating output of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly and steadily. The total weekly cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,738 yuan/ton, and the industry still had high profits. In August, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to increase month - on - month. The bauxite shipment volume from Guinea decreased from late June to July, and the total imported bauxite from Guinea is expected to decline starting from August, while the increase in domestic bauxite supply is limited [3]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. Different aluminum product sectors have different operating rate trends. For example, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy continued to rise, the aluminum cable operating rate remained stable, the aluminum profile and aluminum foil operating rates decreased slightly, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises remained stable [3]. - On August 11, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 587,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared with last Thursday and last Monday. Due to uneven arrivals, there were phased fluctuations in inventory data. In the off - season, high aluminum prices may further damage consumption, and the inventory will continue to accumulate in the short term [3].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core View - The steel price is still expected to adjust, and it is advisable to wait and see [3] Group 3: Summary by Content - **Cost and Profit**: This week, the average tax - free hot metal cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,118 yuan/ton, and the average tax - included billet cost was 2,868 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the ex - factory price of common billets on August 6th (3,090 yuan/ton), the average profit of steel mills was 222 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton week - on - week [2] - **Fund Availability**: As of August 5th, the fund availability rate of sample construction sites was 58.5%, down 0.2 percentage points week - on - week. The fund availability rate of housing construction projects was 51.14%, remaining flat week - on - week [2] - **Market Situation**: Driven by the rise in coking coal prices, the finished products rose slightly during the day yesterday with a slight intraday increase. Currently, the overall steel market still has stronger supply than demand. Supply - side indicators such as daily hot metal output, blast furnace operating rate, and steel mill profitability are relatively high, while downstream demand is average, affected by monthly real - estate data and the rainy - season impact on construction sites. On the other hand, macro - level policies still drive up prices [2] - **Later Concerns**: Macro policies, supply - side production reduction situation, and downstream demand situation [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price is expected to continue adjusting, and it is recommended to wait and see. [4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Policy Information - On August 1st, the list of "two major" construction projects worth 800 billion yuan for this year has been fully issued, and the central budget - internal investment of 735 billion yuan has been basically issued. [3] Production Capacity Utilization - Last week, the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.37 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons from the previous week and an increase of 40,900 tons year - on - year. [3] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 57.05%, an increase of 1.56 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 15.11 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate was 74.21%, an increase of 2.18 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 12.75 percentage points year - on - year. [3] Market Performance and Influencing Factors - The price of finished steel rose first and then fell last week with large fluctuations. In terms of weekly fundamentals, the supply and demand of rebar both decreased and inventory increased, while the supply, demand, and inventory of hot - rolled steel all increased. The fundamentals are slightly bearish, but market sentiment has a greater impact on the market. [3] - The Politburo meeting last week was relatively calm, with no unexpected statements on anti - involution and real estate, which put pressure on the previously excited market. Recent market trends are greatly affected by macro factors and sentiment, with large price fluctuations. [3] Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand conditions should be focused on. [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View - Steel prices are expected to have increased short - term volatility and overall strong performance [2] 3) Summary by Content - On July 30, the China Metal Materials Circulation Association issued an initiative to resist "involution - style competition" and promote the scientific and orderly development of the steel circulation industry, advocating fair competition based on product quality, service value, and technological innovation [1] - This week, the average hot - metal cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2097 yuan/ton (ex - tax), and the average billet cost was 2843 yuan/ton (tax - included), up 35 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the current billet price of 3180 yuan/ton, the average profit per ton of steel mills was 337 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton week - on - week [1] - From July 1 - 27, the retail sales of the national passenger vehicle market were 1.445 million units, a 9% increase compared to the same period last July, a 19% decrease compared to the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 12.346 million units, a 11% increase year - on - year [1] - Yesterday, finished products first rose and then fell. At night, they reached a new high during the rebound, and then fluctuated and declined in the morning. Currently, the downstream demand for finished products is weak, especially for building materials in the off - season, and rainfall in many places has a great impact on construction sites. However, the macro - sentiment is strong, and anti - involution policies support prices [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and weak manner, with the focus shifting downward [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream starts [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Finished Products - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in Yunnan and Guizhou regions are expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 74.1 tons, and 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui will also have production cuts, with a daily output reduction of about 1.62 tons for some [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, so the price support is weak [2] Aluminum - From January to June, China's cumulative import of bauxite increased by 34% year - on - year. With some enterprises starting maintenance in late July, the operating capacity of alumina may decline, while the demand in the southwest region will increase due to the commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects. However, the supply of alumina is still relatively loose overall [2] - As of July 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 49.80 tons, with fluctuations. The reduction of aluminum rod production at the end of the month led to an increase in ingot production, and the increase in supply was the core driver of inventory accumulation in the off - season [2] - Macro risks are increasing, and short - term policy boosts the metal price. The short - term aluminum price is expected to be relatively strong in the range, and attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [3]