2025年11月25日 星期二 股债 市场短期调整,中期趋势依然乐观,高新技术产业持续壮大。国债现券利率盘整,市场趋 势小幅反弹。 黑色 受外蒙一亿的进口目标这个消息影响,叠加供暖季保供会议召开,市场担忧后续供给端有 复产,煤焦高位调整。成材供应无显著减量预期,需求无显著增量预期,关注12月宏观政 策预期对冬储影响。 黄金 9月非农数据意外强劲,但失业率数据超预期上升,市场对美联储12月降息预期不到40% 12月会议面临数据真空,不确定性可能让美联储决策更加谨慎。美联储降息周期、全球央 行购金和地缘政治风险对金价形成坚实的长期支撑。 原木 现货市场价格偏弱运行,辐射松多个规格出现下跌,上周到港量预计环增,供应延续承压 趋势,需求增量预计难以维持,成本支撑减弱,预计原木价格底部震荡为主。 橡胶 主产区降雨影响持续,成本端支撑强。需求端偏弱,下游采购谨慎,R冶约仓单集中注 销,创近年新低,短期内天然橡胶价格延续震荡走势。 油粕 美豆压榨数据再创新高但出口疲软,市场重新衡量大豆需求前景,国内大豆供应充裕,油 厂开机率高位,豆粕供应宽裕,而需求疲软,预计豆粕短期震荡偏弱。 聚酯 俄乌新方案谈判暂无定论,美联储12月降 ...

在2025年的实盘大赛中，华宝期货有限公司（下称华宝期货）首次成为大赛指定交易商。华宝期货前身 是中钢期货，2023年9月公司控股股东变更为华宝投资有限公司，2025年1月6日，公司正式由中钢期货 更名为华宝期货。作为具有黑色产业背景的期货公司，华宝期货以铁矿石、成材、双焦等黑色系核心品 种为支点，持续赋能黑色产业链客户，打造专业化产业服务生态，助力钢铁冶金行业高质量发展。 在今年的实盘大赛中，记者获悉，华宝期货的参赛客户整体表现稳健，尤其在黑色系品种上展现出较强 的研判能力和风控意识。公司参赛客户中约40%为产业背景客户，主要来自钢铁、焦化、贸易类企业， 他们普遍采用"套保+套利"相结合的策略，注重风险控制而非单纯追求高收益。 邱战槐表示，为助力选手取得好成绩，华宝期货围绕选手需求在资讯服务、报名推广、线下宣传等方面 提供支持。线上直播解读热点品种，每日发布黑色、有色品种研报，帮助选手把握市场重点、分析研 判；线上打通多渠道报名入口，方便更多选手了解并参与；开展线下地推服务，提升赛事知名度和参与 度。值得一提的是，为加强选手对期权交易的认知，华宝期货重点在期权的保证金计算、行权履约后的 资金和头寸管理等方面 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its price center continuing to shift downward in a weak supply - demand situation and low winter storage [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short - term, running at a high level with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment, mine - end news, and high - level pressure [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one stopped production on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20, affecting a daily output of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center shifted downward. Winter storage was sluggish this year, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Shanghai aluminum showed a strong performance. With the US government reopening, the US dollar fell, and traders were waiting for economic data [1] - Domestically, the supply of electrolytic aluminum was stable. Overseas, an aluminum plant in Iceland cut production due to electrical equipment failure, and a plant in Mozambique might cut or stop production due to an energy agreement issue, leading to an expected supply tightening [2] - This week, the SMM weekly aluminum - water ratio was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease. The overall starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose 0.4 percentage points to 62%, showing a structural differentiation [2] - On November 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from Monday and 1,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - The premium of the US spot aluminum price reached a record high due to high import tariffs and global supply tightness [2] - With a positive macro - environment and expected overseas supply tightening, a large amount of funds flowed into Shanghai aluminum futures, driving up the price. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continued. However, with the arrival of the off - season, the downstream was weakening, and the pressure of inventory accumulation was increasing [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The steel price of finished products continued to rebound, with prices trending strongly. The recent macro - market sentiment has warmed up, and the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US leaders, along with environmental production restrictions in some areas of Hebei, provided support to the prices. Demand remained relatively stable, while the real - estate sector was weak. - Raw materials are expected to operate at a low level with a short - term rebound potential [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Content - **Macro - economic Situation**: The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% for the second time this year and will end the balance - sheet reduction from December 1st. The Chinese and US leaders are to hold a meeting, which has improved the macro - market sentiment [1]. - **Cost and Profit of Steel Mills**: This week, the average含税 cost of steel billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 3033 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton. Compared with the ex - factory price of 3000 yuan/ton of common square billets on October 29th, the average loss of steel mills was 33 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fund Availability of Construction Sites**: As of October 28th, the fund availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.08 percentage points. The fund availability rate of housing construction projects was 52.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points [1]. - **Market Performance of Finished Products and Raw Materials**: Finished products continued to rebound yesterday with strong prices. Raw materials are in a low - level operation with a potential short - term rebound [1].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term coal and coke supply - demand has marginal fluctuations, remaining at a relatively high level overall with temporarily low inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of demand changes on market sentiment, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices fluctuated violently. In the spot market, it was generally stable with a slight upward trend. The second round of coke price hikes was implemented, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 130 yuan/ton in two rounds, and some regional coke enterprises planned a third round of hikes [3] Supply Side - Last week, some coal mines in Shanxi's Lüliang and Linfen regions shut down due to safety reasons, and open - pit coal mines in Inner Mongolia's Wuhai region shut down for goaf treatment, leading to a decline in coal production. The daily average coking coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 76.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons from the previous week and 1.7 million tons year - on - year [3] - From January to September, China's cumulative imports of Mongolian coking coal were 41.747 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6716 billion tons, a decline of 3.8%. In August and September, the monthly import volume of Mongolian coking coal was around 6 billion tons, narrowing the year - on - year decline. In October, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 12.8 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons from September. It is expected that Mongolian coking coal imports in October will decline, and the annual import volume may be the same as last year [3] Demand Side - Demand is in the transition stage from peak season to off - season. Steel mills' profits have further shrunk, with the profitability rate dropping to 47.6%. The daily average hot metal output has slightly decreased to 23.99 million tons. As the peak demand season nears its end, the pressure on finished products is increasing, and hot metal output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The industry is operating at a low level with a short - term rebound potential [3] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Information Macro - economic Data - From January to September 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 5373.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry turned from loss to profit, with a profit of 973.4 billion yuan [2] Downstream Construction Projects - A survey of 36 downstream construction units showed that only 38.89% of enterprises have new projects in Q4 2025, and new projects will be concentrated in Q1 2026. Most enterprises' existing project scales are stable, but they face significant financial pressure and are cautious in procurement, keeping raw material inventory low [2] Market Performance -成材 rebounded yesterday, with a morning decline and an afternoon rally. After Sino - US consultations, a preliminary consensus was reached, improving the macro - level and boosting risk sentiment. Since Monday, some areas in Hebei have implemented a weather level - II emergency response, supporting the price of 成材 [2] Later Concerns - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions should be focused on [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Short - term coal - coke supply - demand has marginal fluctuations and remains at a relatively high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of imported coal variables on the market. Market sentiment is easily disturbed by macro - factor changes, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - side - Yesterday, coal - coke futures prices continued the rebound trend with intense fluctuations. The spot market was generally stable, and the second round of coking price increase was still in the negotiation process. Supply - side news pushed up coal prices [3]. - Due to the political turmoil in Mongolia, the customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port was affected, and the recent clearance volume decreased, supporting the coal price [3]. - In the domestic market, some coal mines in Shanxi's Lvliang and Linfen stopped production due to safety reasons this week, and open - pit coal mines in Inner Mongolia's Wuhai stopped production for goaf treatment. The coal output declined. The daily average coking coal output of 523 coking coal mines this week was 76.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons from the previous week and 1.7 million tons year - on - year [3]. Demand - side - The profit of steel mills further shrank, with the profitability rate dropping to 47.6%. The daily average hot metal output slightly decreased to 2.399 billion tons. As the demand nears the end of the year, the pressure on finished products increases, and the hot metal output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end [3]. Import Data - China's coking coal imports have been increasing month - by - month. In September, the import volume was 10.9237 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.41%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 83.5312 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.45% with the decline rate continuously narrowing [3]. - In September, the import of Mongolian coal was 6.0005 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 45.48%. From January to September, the import of Mongolian coal was 41.747 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% with the decline rate significantly narrowing [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Core Views - For building materials (成材): Expected to move in a range with a downward - shifting center of gravity, and run in a weak and volatile manner. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support. The view is for volatile consolidation [1][3]. - For aluminum ingots: The price is expected to run in a short - term range. In the short term, the fundamentals are stable, but macro - overseas interference events repeatedly affect market sentiment. The price is currently in a high - level shock, and future attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - Production suspension impact: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process building steel enterprises' production suspension during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of building steel production. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the suspension period [2][3]. - Real estate transaction data: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - Market situation: The price continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with no significant highlights in the near term, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3]. - Later focus: Macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum - Supply - side situation: After entering October, due to the peak season of downstream processed materials demand, the proportion of direct aluminum water supply is expected to increase, resulting in low aluminum ingot production and reduced market supply, which supports the aluminum price [3]. - Demand - side situation: In early October, the overall performance of the aluminum processing industry was in line with seasonal characteristics, but there was obvious internal differentiation. The overall industry showed resilience, but the "Golden September and Silver October" in the demand side was lackluster, and the high aluminum price and order differentiation restricted the short - term upward space of the operating rate. High prices will gradually suppress downstream purchasing, leading to a marginal weakening of demand and limiting the upward space of aluminum prices [3]. - Inventory data: On October 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 650,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last Thursday and 58,000 tons from last Monday [3]. - Later focus: Macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel prices of finished products are running at a low level, and it is recommended to control the position risk as the National Day holiday approaches. The later focus includes macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Current Situation of the Steel Industry - Last week, the scale of steel mill maintenance in the building steel industry was still at a peak. 12 provinces' steel mills were involved in production line maintenance and resumption, with 14 maintenance production lines (1 less than last week) and 4 resumption production lines (6 less than last week). The production affected by production line maintenance was 30.99 tons last week, and it is expected to be 29.33 tons this week [2] Policy and Market Data Changes - The Jiangsu Provincial Department of Commerce adjusted the automobile trade - in policy, and the automobile replacement subsidy policy was suspended at 24:00 on September 28, 2025. The total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in October 2025 was 29.24 million units, a 9.9% decrease compared with the actual production performance of the same period last year [2] Market Performance of Finished Products - Last week, finished products were horizontally consolidated in the early stage and fell significantly on Friday. Rebar and hot - rolled coils both reached recent lows. The fundamentals of the industry changed little last week. Rebar performed better with a slight increase in output, a large increase in apparent demand, and inventory reduction. Hot - rolled coil output and apparent demand decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Finished products mainly ran at a low level due to weak demand [3]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity moving downward and weak operation, and the market sentiment is pessimistic in the context of weak supply and demand, and this year's winter storage is sluggish with limited price support [1][3] - The view on aluminum ingots is that they are supported by the peak season, and attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point. The price is expected to be adjusted weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - flow construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production from mid - January and resume around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production [2] - Six short - flow steel mills in Anhui, one stopped on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - Later, it is necessary to pay attention to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum - The fundamental situation of alumina remains in an oversupply pattern. The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level, the import window is open, and the inventory is high [3] - As of last Thursday, the total installed capacity of national metallurgical - grade alumina was 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating total capacity was 92.33 million tons/year, with the weekly starting rate up 0.92 percentage points to 83.69% [3] - Last week, the starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2%, 1.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year [3] - On September 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots at domestic mainstream consumption areas was 638,000 tons, the same as last Thursday and 100 tons higher than last Monday. From September 16 - 21, the domestic aluminum ingot delivery volume was 122,300 tons, an increase of 14,700 tons from the previous period [3] - Later, it is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [4]