成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：供需紧平衡延续 期价高位震荡运行 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 碳酸锂 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 基本面来看，供应端，节前锂辉石精矿(CIF)价格微涨，云母略降；本 周 SMM 周度开工率回升至 49.75%（较 2 月 12 日+3.73%），周度总产量增 至 21822 吨（+560 吨），供应边际增加。需求端表现分化，本周铁锂增产 去库，三元降产增库；至 2 月 8 日，SMM 新能源车销量渗透率降至 36.3%， 处相对低位；1 月，动力+储能电池合计产量为 168.0GWh，环比-16.7%， 同比+55.9%；销量 148.8GWh，环比-25.4%，同比+85.1%。储能电芯产销两 旺且库存低位，成结构性亮点。库存端，节前 SMM 四地样本社会库存增 3160 吨至 46210 吨，本周样本周度总库存去库至 100093 吨，处于相对低位， 总库存天数降至 28.2 天，整 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of lithium carbonate has returned to a tight balance, and the price is expected to run strongly within a certain range [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Conditions - The closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures was 164,120 yuan/ton, with shrinking trading volume, slightly increasing positions, and a decreasing long - short ratio. The inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 96 lots to 38,855 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 152,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 3,500 yuan/ton. The market trading was light. Upstream lithium salt factories continued the strategy of惜售 and price support, with only a few manufacturers making small - volume shipments. Downstream enterprises had weak purchasing sentiment on the first day after the holiday, and most had completed raw material procurement for February before the Spring Festival, still maintaining the idea of buying on dips, with only a few enterprises having rigid - demand restocking actions [3] Fundamentals Supply - Before the Spring Festival, the price of spodumene concentrate (CIF) increased slightly, while that of mica decreased slightly. The SMM weekly operating rate was 46.02% (-1.27%), and the operating rates of all processes except lithium mica decreased. The SMM weekly total output was 20,184 tons (-560 tons), and the supply shrank slightly [4] Demand - The demand performance was differentiated. The production of lithium iron phosphate increased while inventory decreased, and both the production and inventory of ternary materials decreased. As of February 8, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales dropped to 36.3%, at a relatively low level. In January, the total production of power + energy - storage batteries was 168.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 16.7% and a year - on - year increase of 55.9%; the sales volume was 148.8 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 85.1%. The production and sales of energy - storage cells were booming, and the inventory was at a low level, which was a structural highlight [4] Inventory - Before the Spring Festival, the SMM four - location sample social inventory increased by 3,160 tons to 46,210 tons. The sample weekly total inventory decreased to 102,932 tons, and the total inventory days decreased to 29.6 days, returning to a tight - balance pattern [4] Macro - policy Demand - side - Subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones and export tax rebates for batteries directly stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [5] Supply - side - In January, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which raised the recycling threshold, eliminated backward production capacity, optimized the domestic supply in the long term, and raised the cost support center [5] Industry Planning - The development of Qinghai salt lakes, the key points of energy - storage in the 15th Five - Year Plan, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form synergy to support the long - term supply - demand balance [5] International Aspect - On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA tariff was illegal, and the White House imposed a 15% temporary tariff. The tariff on energy - storage cells decreased from 48.4% to 43.4%, and the export profit improved marginally, which was beneficial to demand within the window period [5]

成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：春节下游走弱 市场偏谨慎 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 铝锭 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 原材料： 冯艳成 有色金属：于梦雪 基本面来看,当前国产铝土矿货源较为充足，短期价格持稳 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Supply and demand have returned to a tight balance. Due to the uncertainty during the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see before the festival [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Performance - Yesterday, the price of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose significantly to 149,420 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in trading volume and open interest; the daily inventory of lithium carbonate on the GZFE increased to 37,282 lots. The SMM average price of electric carbon in the spot market was 142,500 yuan/ton, with an electrician price difference of 3,500 yuan/ton. The spot market sentiment was cautious despite the strong futures market [3] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, raw material prices in the market generally declined. This week, the SMM total weekly operating rate was 46.02% (-1.27%), and the operating rates of all processes except lithium mica decreased. The SMM weekly total output was 20,184 tons (-560 tons). There were also information disturbances on the supply side, and the sentiment of ethnic resource nationalism increased, providing some resonance support to the overall market sentiment [3][4] - **Demand**: Last week's data showed that the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory was destocked. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales in the SMM data rose to 55.6%, remaining at a relatively high level. In January, the total production of power and energy storage batteries in China was 168.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 16.7% and a year - on - year increase of 55.9%; sales were 148.8 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 85.1%. Energy storage cells performed strongly, with both production and sales booming and low inventory [4] - **Inventory**: According to SMM data, last week, the social inventory of the four - location sample increased by 3.73% week - on - week to 43,050 tons. This week, the total sample weekly inventory decreased to 102,932 tons, and the total inventory days decreased to 29.6 days, returning to a tight - balance pattern [4] Macro - policy and Environment - **Demand - side**: Multiple incentives such as subsidies for car trade - ins and export tax rebates for batteries stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [5] - **Supply - side**: On January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic supply structure and raising the cost support center in the long term [5] - **Industrial Planning**: The industrial planning of Qinghai Salt Lake, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments at the Central Economic Work Conference form synergistic benefits, supporting long - term supply - demand balance [5] - **Macro Environment**: The central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthens the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The report predicts that the market for finished products will move in a volatile manner [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Steel Production and Supply - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.53%, a month - on - month increase of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.2858 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.60 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.14 million tons [3] - Six cities in Hebei launched a Level II emergency response for heavy air pollution on February 8 [3] Winter Storage Policy and Market Sentiment - Henan's winter storage policies were gradually introduced, with the mainstream locked - in price at 3,040 yuan/ton, and the post - settlement model extended to the end of March. Some steel mills chose self - storage or on - demand delivery [3] - Merchants' willingness for winter storage was low, generally stocking 1,000 - 2,000 tons. The market was cautious and waiting due to weak expectations of post - holiday demand recovery [3] Excavator Sales - In January 2026, 18,708 excavators of various types were sold, a year - on - year increase of 49.5%. Among them, domestic sales were 8,723 units, a year - on - year increase of 61.4%; exports were 9,985 units, a year - on - year increase of 40.5% [3] Steel Price - At the end of last week, the ex - factory price of common billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan remained stable at 2,910 yuan/ton [3] Market Situation - Last week, finished products fluctuated lower, and the steel market continued to show a situation of weak supply and demand. As the Spring Festival approached, the spot market gradually entered the holiday rhythm. There might still be capital outflows before the holiday, leading to a decline in market trading. The macro - environment was calm and had little impact on prices [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The market is dominated by a weak trend, and the tight - balance logic temporarily fails. It is advisable to avoid risks of sharp fluctuations [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit during the session and then opened, closing at 132,320 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased to 531,700 lots, and the open interest decreased to 329,800 lots. The net short position of the main funds continued, and the long - short ratio increased slightly month - on - month. The daily inventory of lithium carbonate on the GME was 33,787 lots, a decrease of 327 lots from the previous day. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 144,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 3,500 yuan/ton [2] Supply - Last week, raw material prices in the market generally increased. This week, the total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 47.29% (-2.21%). Except for lithium mica, the operating rates of other processes decreased. The weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate was 20,744 tons (-825 tons) [3] Demand - The production schedule of the lithium - battery downstream in February decreased month - on - month. This week, the output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory was destocked. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicle sales by SMM rose to 55.6%, remaining at a relatively high level. Energy - storage cells performed strongly, with strong production and sales and low inventory [3] Inventory - Last week, the social inventory of the four - location samples by SMM decreased by 5.6% (-2,450 tons) month - on - month. This week, the sample weekly inventory decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, and the total inventory days increased to 30 days, with an increase in inventory days at each link [3] Macro Policy - On the demand side, subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones and battery export tax - rebate policies stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic supply structure and raising the cost - support center in the long term. Industrial plans, such as the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments at the Central Economic Work Conference, form synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest - rate cuts indirectly strengthen the long - term macro - favorable atmosphere [4]

晨报 成材 成材：情绪降温 震荡偏弱 逻辑：党的十八大以来第 14 个指导"三农"工作的中央一号文件 3 日由新华社受权发布，对锚定农业农村现代化、扎实推进乡村全面振兴进 行了部署。2 月 3 日，国务院安委会办公室印发紧急通知，部署各地区、 各有关部门和中央企业认真贯彻落实习近平总书记重要指示精神，切实做 好春节前后安全生产工作，强化重大风险防控，坚决防范遏制群死群伤特 别是重特大生产安全事故。为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2026 年 2 月 4 日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展 8000 亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为 3 个月（91 天）。据 Mysteel 不完全整 理，截至 1 月 31 日，20 城出台 21 条楼市松绑政策，其中多地延长房地 产政策期限，南京推行"电子房票"全城通兑，同时继续优化公积金政策， 允许提取公积金用于房屋"适老化"、"适儿化"改造。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 原材料：程 鹏 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 ...

晨报 铝锭 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 逻辑:昨日沪铝偏弱调整，情绪有所缓和。美元再度下探，对美国政府再次 停摆的的担忧打击市场情绪；美伊对峙短暂升温，地缘冲突进一步扩大。国内 央行公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2 月 4 日将开展 8000 亿元买断式逆回 购操作，期限为 3 个月。 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：情绪有所缓和 警惕宏观扰动 以伊冲突 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号： ...

以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：区间震荡企稳 警惕短期剧烈波动 投资咨询业务资格： 原材料：程 鹏 基本面来看，供应端，上周原料市场普涨；SMM 碳酸锂总周度开工率 49.5%（-1.49%），除盐湖外，其他工艺开工率均下降；SMM 总产量 21569 吨（-648 吨），环比-2.92%。需求端结构性分化显著。上周 SMM 铁锂产量 环比+1.0%，累库增加；三元产量环比-1.1%，逐渐去库；上周动力电芯产 量微降，截至 1 月 18 日，SMM 新能源车销量渗透率上升至 55.6%；储能 电芯表现强劲，产销两旺且库存低位。库存方面，上周 SMM 四地样本社会 库存环比-5.6%（-2450 吨），样本周度库存环比-1.3%（-1414 吨），总库 存天数增至 28.5 天，下游库存天数增至 10.8 天，上游及其他环节天数下降， 库存结构分化显著。 宏观政策层面，需求侧，汽车以旧换新补贴、电池出口退税政策多重 激励刺激终端消费与改善宏观流动性；供给侧，1 月 15 日，国家 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is expected to stabilize in a range, with a focus on the tight supply - demand balance [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures showed a volatile downward trend, closing at the daily limit of 148,200 yuan/ton. The net short position of the main funds continued, the持仓 structure was divided, market divergence increased, the advantage of long - positions concentrated towards the top, and overall gaming intensified. Registered warehouse receipts increased by 420 tons to 30,211 tons. The SMM average price of electric carbon was 160,500 yuan/ton. Upstream lithium salt producers' willingness to sell single orders continued to weaken, while some downstream material factories had a strong willingness to purchase at relatively low prices, and market inquiries and transactions were active [1] Fundamentals - **Supply**: Last week, the raw material market generally rose. The SMM total weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 49.5% (-1.49%), and the operating rates of all processes except for salt lakes decreased. The SMM total output was 21,569 tons (-648 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 2.92% [2] - **Demand**: There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. Last week, the SMM lithium iron phosphate output increased by 1.0% month - on - month with increased inventory accumulation; the ternary output decreased by 1.1% month - on - month with gradually decreasing inventory. The output of power cells decreased slightly last week. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales by SMM rose to 55.6%. Energy - storage cells performed strongly, with both production and sales booming and low inventory [2] - **Inventory**: Last week, the SMM four - location sample social inventory decreased by 5.6% (-2,450 tons) month - on - month, the sample weekly inventory decreased by 1.3% (-1,414 tons) month - on - month. The total inventory days increased to 28.5 days, the downstream inventory days increased to 10.8 days, and the inventory days of upstream and other links decreased, showing a significant inventory structure differentiation [2] Macro - policy - **Demand - side**: Multiple incentives such as automobile trade - in subsidies and battery export tax - rebate policies stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [3] - **Supply - side**: On January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic supply structure in the long - term and raising the cost support center [3] - **Industrial planning**: The Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments in the Central Economic Work Conference form synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance [3] - **Macro - environment**: The central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthens the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [3]