成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：海外降息预期升温 关注高位压力 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 铝锭 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样 ...

成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：价格高位偏强 关注下游反馈 投资咨询业务资格： 晨报 铝锭 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝偏强运行。宏观上美联储官员发言各异，根据芝商所 (CME)的 FedWatch 工具，联邦基金利率期货市场仍然认为美联储在 1 月 27 日至 28 日举行的下一次会议上维持利率不变的可能性约为 82%。 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从 ...

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：市场热度保持高位 区间震荡向上 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂期货日内走势强劲，早盘以超过 4%的幅度高开，午 后强势触及 8.99%的涨停板并维持至收盘，主力合约收至 137940 元/吨，成 交缩至 30.42 万手，持仓放量至 53.50 万手。资金面来看，主力净空格局延 续，多空比环比微降。现货端，SMM 数据显示电碳均价 127500 元/ ...

晨报 成材 成材：弱需求压制价格小幅回落 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成文时间： 2026 年 1 月 6 日 逻辑：商务部等九部门联合发文实施绿色消费推进行动，从丰富绿色 产品供给、提升绿色服务消费、创新绿色消费模式等 7 方面 20 条具体举 措。支持消费者购买新能源汽车。鼓励购买获得绿色产品认证的绿色智能 家电产品、无氟空调等。中指研究院：2025 年 12 月，全国百城新建商品 住宅成交均价 17084 元/平方米，环比上涨 0.28%，同比上涨 2.58%。2025 年 12 月，百城二手住宅均价 13016 元/平方米，环比下跌 0.97%，同比下 跌 8.36%。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 昨日成材震荡下跌，下游需求偏弱的局面没有改善，且原料焦煤下跌 也带动成材价格的回落。基本呈现供需双弱的特征，宏观市场平静，对价 格影响有限。 观点：低位盘整运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证， ...

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：震荡上行 聚焦供需边际变化 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策、矿山复产消息、产能释放进度、下游 需求韧性及高价接受度、样本库存去化斜率、资金与情绪 重要声明： 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 2026 年 1 月 6 日 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 ...

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：博弈降温 区间震荡企稳 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成文时间： 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂期货日内呈现宽幅震荡态势，主力合约收至 121580 元/吨，成交缩至 45.95 万手，持仓量维持 51.13 万手，市场博弈明显降温。 资金面来看，主力净空格局延续，注册仓单持续增加，市场供给预期有所 宽松。现货端，SMM 数据显示电碳均价与昨日齐平，维持 118000 元/吨 ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观情绪利好 关注库消走势 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周沪铝震荡走强。宏观上海外数据进一步助长了对降息的乐观 情绪，11 月份美国消费者价格同比上涨 2.7%，低于预测；美国 11 月份失 业率升至 4.6%，为 2021 年 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a state of shock consolidation [4] - The view on lithium carbonate is that it will stabilize with range - bound fluctuations, and one should pay attention to marginal supply - demand changes and be vigilant against emotional fluctuations [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui regional short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and restart times are expected to affect a total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills' shutdowns will affect a daily output of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, with a 40.3% decline from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - Finished products continued to decline in shock, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to move down. This year's winter storage was sluggish, providing weak support for prices [4] - The later focus includes macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 111,400 yuan/ton, with a slight decline in trading volume and positions, and the net short position of the main contract continued. The average price of electric carbon was 97,650 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend, and the basis of the main contract was - 13,750 yuan/ton. Market activity was extremely low [3] - Fundamentally, the year - on - year increase in raw material prices was over 7%, strengthening cost support. As of December 18, the total weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 51.4%, with a 0.21% increase from the previous period, and the weekly output was 22,045 tons, also with a 0.21% increase [4] - There were significant differences in production processes. The lithium - spodumene process became the core increment in production, and with the gradual commissioning of new projects, the industry's production capacity was steadily released [4] - On the demand side, the downstream lithium - battery industry chain showed a differentiated trend. As of December 19, the production of ternary and lithium - iron batteries decreased by 2.6% and 2.2% respectively from the previous period, and the inventory continued to decline. The production of power batteries decreased by 1.48% from the previous period but maintained a 30.34% year - on - year high growth [4] - In the terminal market, as of December 14, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 57.30% from the previous period but decreased by 7.62% year - on - year, showing short - term fluctuations [4] - In terms of inventory, as of December 18, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased slightly by 0.9% to 110,400 tons, continuing the de - stocking state, and the de - stocking slope slowed down [4] - The total inventory days decreased by 1.1% to 26.2 days. Other links had periodic inventory accumulation, and the social inventory showed an inventory accumulation state, with a 4.98% year - on - year increase and a 54.71% decrease from the previous period. The overall industry inventory remained tight [4] - Macro - policies such as the Fed's interest - rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake industry plan, and the series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference provided support for the long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate [5] - Battery manufacturers' collective price increases drove market sentiment to warm up, but one should pay attention to events such as overseas resource/restart news and domestic lithium - mine production - capacity dynamics [5] - The later focus includes the implementation of macro - policies, the progress of production - capacity release, the resilience of downstream demand, the de - stocking slope of sample inventory, and funds and emotions [5]

晨报 成材 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成材：缺乏驱动 盘整运行 逻辑：上周，247 家钢厂高炉产能利用率 84.93%，环比上周减少 0.99 个百分点；钢厂盈利率 35.93%，环比持平；日均铁水产量 226.55 万吨， 环比减少 2.65 万吨。全国 90 家独立电弧炉钢厂平均产能利用率 54.34%， 环比上升 1.57 个百分点。据乘联分会初步推算，12 月狭义乘用车零售总 市场预计为 230 万辆左右，环比微增 3.4%，同比下降 12.7%，其中新能源 零售可达 138 万辆左右，渗透率 6 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The product is in a low - level operation, with the fundamentals remaining weakly stable and moving in a low - level consolidation [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Key Data - In November 2025, the national production of crude steel was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%, with a daily output of 2.329 million tons/day and a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the production of pig iron was 62.34 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%, with a daily output of 2.078 million tons/day and a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%; the production of steel was 115.91 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%, with a daily output of 3.8637 million tons/day and a month - on - month increase of 1.0% [2] - From January to November 2025, the national cumulative production of crude steel was 892 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%, with a cumulative daily output of 266,970 tons; the production of pig iron was 774 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%, with a cumulative daily output of 231,750 tons; the production of steel was 1.333 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%, with a cumulative daily output of 399,030 tons [2] Group 4: Market Situation and Impact - Recently, the environmental protection production restrictions in Beijing, Hebei, and Tianjin in late December have attracted market attention. In Tianjin, most local steel strand factories have received environmental protection production restriction notices, with a 50% production restriction. However, due to recent demand issues, the steel strand manufacturers' production capacity utilization is about 60%, so this production restriction has little impact on them [2] - The product continued the previous day's narrow - range consolidation yesterday, with little change in fundamentals. Weak demand restricts the rebound of steel prices, and the support at the bottom of rebar at 3000 still exists. The domestic meeting last week had no overly unexpected policies, and there is a lack of drivers at the macro level. Currently, rebar has support at the 3000 mark, and attention should also be paid to the support strength of the raw material end [2] Group 5: Later Concerns - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3]