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医药行业专题研究:中美剑拔弩张 关税如何影响中国医药
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-04 06:38
Group 1 - The US has announced a 10% "baseline tariff" on all countries and a 125% tariff on China, while other countries are exempt for 90 days [1] - China exports $19.047 billion to the US, accounting for 18% of its total exports, but has a higher reliance on the "Belt and Road" initiative and the EU market [1] - If tariffs are imposed on pharmaceuticals, the burden may fall on Chinese raw material suppliers, especially if downstream clients in Europe and the US face financial difficulties [1] Group 2 - Medical devices have already seen a 20-50% tariff increase, with most companies having inventory that will buffer short-term sales [2] - Low-value consumables will face squeezed profit margins, with an average net profit margin of 13.9% for listed companies in 2024, and additional tariffs of 25-50% expected in early 2025 [2] - Many multinational pharmaceutical and medical device companies have announced plans to invest over $150 billion in the US over the next five years, indicating a long-term shift towards US pharmaceutical manufacturing [2] Group 3 - If drug exemptions are lifted, innovative drugs may focus on overseas rights sales, which have high profit margins and favorable competitive landscapes [2] - High-end medical products are expected to see increased exports to other countries, with overseas gross margins potentially offsetting tariff impacts [2] - Industries less affected by tariffs include pharmaceutical distribution, offline pharmacies, hospitals, and blood products, which primarily rely on domestic demand [2]