十五五财政政策
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连平:“十五五”财政政策将怎样积极有为
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-10-28 13:15
Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy to support economic growth, with a focus on precision and efficiency in implementation [1][2][8]. Fiscal Policy Support for Economic Development - The necessity for enhanced fiscal policy support during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted, particularly to maintain an average annual GDP growth rate of at least 4.5% to achieve long-term strategic goals by 2035 [2][3]. - The fiscal policy aims to address challenges such as population decline, economic restructuring, and external pressures by increasing spending and optimizing expenditure [2][3]. Investment in Key Areas - Significant investment is required in critical sectors such as modern industrial systems, technological self-reliance, and green transformation, which necessitates substantial public investment led by fiscal policy [3][4]. - Fiscal funding is essential to fill investment gaps and leverage private capital through risk-sharing mechanisms [3]. Expanding Domestic Demand - The strategy emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation, requiring fiscal measures to enhance consumer confidence and investment willingness [4][5]. - Fiscal policy will focus on optimizing spending and improving social security to stabilize expectations and promote a dynamic balance between supply and demand [4]. Promoting Social Equity - The plan aims to advance common prosperity through fiscal measures that address income distribution and enhance social welfare systems [5][6]. - Fiscal policy will play a crucial role in reducing disparities and ensuring equitable resource allocation [5]. Addressing Uncertainties - The fiscal policy must maintain necessary spending levels to counteract increasing uncertainties and risks, including economic downturns and external shocks [6][7]. - A proactive fiscal approach is essential to provide a stable foundation for economic and social development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [6][7]. Focus Areas for Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will maintain a proactive stance, with an expected deficit rate of 3.8% to 4.0%, potentially rising to over 4.2% during significant shocks [8][9]. - Annual issuance of long-term special bonds is projected at around 1.5 trillion yuan, targeting key areas such as technological innovation and social welfare [9][10]. Deepening Fiscal and Tax Reforms - The plan includes reforms to enhance fiscal sustainability and clarify the fiscal relationship between central and local governments [10][11]. - Measures will be taken to improve local tax systems and reduce reliance on land finance, while also addressing local government debt issues [10][11]. Managing Local Government Debt - The strategy outlines a phased approach to resolving existing local government debt, with an annual issuance of special bonds estimated between 4.5 trillion to 5 trillion yuan [11]. - Efforts will focus on categorizing and managing debt risks while enhancing local fiscal capabilities [11].
财政重点任务:增加民生保障支出|解读“十五五”
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-10-28 09:47
Core Points - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of fiscal policy in boosting consumption and enhancing public service spending to improve residents' consumption capacity [1][2] - The plan outlines the need to expand effective investment, optimize government investment structure, and increase the proportion of government investment in people's livelihoods [1][2] - It calls for the acceleration of the market-oriented allocation of factors and the establishment of a macro asset-liability balance sheet to optimize the asset-liability structure [1][2][8] Fiscal Policy Directions - The plan highlights the role of proactive fiscal policy in enhancing fiscal sustainability [2][8] - It stresses the importance of scientific fiscal management, resource allocation, and budget coordination to support national strategic tasks and basic livelihood financing [2][3] - The plan advocates for the deepening of zero-based budgeting reform and the optimization of fiscal expenditure structure [3][4] Taxation and Financial Management - The plan proposes improvements to the local tax and direct tax systems, including the regulation of tax incentives and maintaining a reasonable macro tax burden [3][4] - It suggests strengthening central authority and increasing the proportion of central fiscal expenditure [4][5] - The plan emphasizes the need for enhanced financial supervision and the establishment of a long-term mechanism for government debt management aligned with high-quality development [6][7] Risk Management - The plan includes measures to strengthen the capacity for risk prevention and resolution in key areas such as real estate, local government debt, and small financial institutions [8]