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五矿期货早报有色金属-20250609
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 01:49
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment towards copper is neutral, with short - term prices expected to oscillate at high levels due to factors such as raw material supply tightness, weakening consumption resilience, high near - month contract positions, and increased export expectations [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, supported by inventory depletion but pressured by tariff hikes and seasonal demand weakness [3]. - Lead prices are likely to remain weak as downstream consumption weakens despite potential small rebounds driven by a warmer commodity market [4]. - Zinc prices face significant downward risks due to oversupply and weak terminal consumption, despite possible small rebounds from a warmer market [6]. - Tin prices are supported by supply uncertainties and strong low - price buying demand, with the supply side facing short - term uncertainties [7]. - Nickel's short - term fundamentals show a slight improvement, but the long - term outlook is bearish, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [8]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom as the short - term fundamentals remain unchanged and the inventory pressure persists [10]. - Alumina prices are expected to be anchored by costs, and it is recommended to short on high prices as the capacity surplus persists [13]. - Stainless steel market will continue to be under pressure in the short term due to high inventory, weak demand, and other negative factors [15]. Summary by Metals Copper - Last week, LME copper rose 1.83% to $9670/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78620 yuan/ton. Three - exchange inventories decreased by 0.9 tons, with different trends in each exchange. The import loss of spot copper widened, and the export window for spot feed - processing opened. The short - term price is expected to oscillate between 77200 - 79200 yuan/ton for SHFE copper and 9450 - 9800 dollars/ton for LME copper [1]. Aluminum - Last week, SHFE aluminum closed flat, and LME aluminum rose 0.12% to $2451/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to decline, and the spot basis decreased. The supply increased slightly, and demand weakened. The price is expected to fluctuate between 19800 - 20200 yuan/ton for SHFE aluminum and 2380 - 2500 dollars/ton for LME aluminum [3]. Lead - As of Friday, SHFE lead index rose 0.49% to 16775 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1990.5/ton. Fed's dovish remarks and strong non - farm data may drive a small rebound, but weak downstream consumption and high inventories will keep prices weak [4]. Zinc - As of Friday, SHFE zinc index rose 0.14% to 22289 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2690/ton. A warmer market may cause a small rebound, but oversupply and weak consumption pose significant downward risks [6]. Tin - Last week, tin prices rebounded from the bottom. Supply may face a 500 - 1000 - ton reduction in June, and smelters plan to cut production. Demand has not increased significantly, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm declines as prices rise. The price is expected to range from 230000 - 260000 yuan/ton domestically and 28000 - 31000 dollars/ton overseas [7]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices oscillated. Nickel ore supply is tight, nickel - iron prices rebounded, MHP prices are high, and nickel sulfate prices may strengthen. The short - term outlook is slightly better, but the long - term is bearish. The price is expected to range from 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton for SHFE nickel [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC index was flat on Friday, and the futures contract rebounded slightly. The current lithium salt production is high, and the inventory pressure persists. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with the main contract ranging from 59520 - 61540 yuan/ton [10]. Alumina - On June 6, the alumina index fell 1.36% to 2899 yuan/ton. The import window opened, and the inventory decreased. Due to capacity surplus, prices are expected to be cost - anchored, and it is recommended to short on high prices. The main contract AO2509 is expected to range from 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12680 yuan/ton. Spot prices were mostly stable, and inventories increased. The market will continue to be under pressure due to high inventory, weak demand, and other factors [15].