2025 年 8 月 26 日 棕榈油：基本面暂无新驱动，等待回调布多 豆油：四季度缺豆交易暂缓，高位震荡整理 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日 盘） 9,488 | 涨跌幅 -0.23% | 收盘价 （夜 盘） 9,542 | 涨跌幅 0.57% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 元/吨 | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | | 8,536 | 0.52% | 8,514 | -0.26% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,998 | 0.03% | 9,918 | -0.80% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,493 | -0.84% | 4,482 | -0.22% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美 分/磅 | 54.84 | -0.87% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For industrial silicon, the unilateral strategy is rated as neutral, while cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option strategies are not recommended [3] - For polysilicon, in the short - term, a range - trading strategy is suggested, and cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option strategies are not recommended [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon futures prices are oscillating weakly, mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment. The current fundamentals have little change, and the spot price has declined [2][3] - Polysilicon futures prices are in wide - range oscillation, mainly influenced by anti - involution policies. In the short - term, they are expected to maintain wide - range oscillation, and it is suitable to buy on dips in the medium - to - long - term [4][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract 2511 opened at 8500 yuan/ton and closed at 8390 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.89% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 279,868 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,613 lots, a change of - 12 lots from the previous day [2] - **Spot**: Industrial silicon spot prices declined. For example, the price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 (- 150) yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon was 9500 - 9700 (- 150) yuan/ton [2] - **Export and Import**: In July 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 37%, reaching a new monthly high since 2022. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 414,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The import volume in July 2025 was negligible, and the cumulative import volume from January to July was 5300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65% [2] - **Consumption**: The quotation of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,500 (0) yuan/ton. The overall industry start - up of monomer plants was at a relatively high load, and the overall output was relatively stable compared with last week, but the implicit pressure on enterprises increased. In July 2025, the export volume of China's primary - form polysiloxane was 46,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.01%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 325,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.85% [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral - Cross - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Option: None [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 20, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures oscillated widely, opening at 51,700 yuan/ton and closing at 51,875 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.52% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 150,086 (137,977 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 704,931 lots [4] - **Spot**: Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. The price of N - type material was 45.00 - 49.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [4] - **Inventory and Production**: The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 24.20 (a month - on - month change of 3.86%), the silicon wafer inventory was 19.80GW (a month - on - month change of 3.60%), the weekly polysilicon output was 29,300.00 tons (a month - on - month change of - 0.30%), and the silicon wafer output was 12.10GW (a month - on - month change of 0.67%) [6] - **Silicon Wafer Price**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 (0.00) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers was 1.54 (0.00) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.34 (0.00) yuan/piece [6] - **Component Price**: The mainstream transaction prices of components remained stable. For example, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W [7] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Cross - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Option: None [8]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the polyolefin (LL&PP) futures and spot markets, providing data on prices, trading volumes, and inventories, along with market analysis and strategies [2]. Group 2: Market Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core View - Polyolefin futures are running weakly. The spot market is mainly driven by supply - demand. The market heat has cooled down, and the inventory is slowly being digested. It is in a stage of stopping the decline after the previous rebound. The destocking process in summer is tortuous, but the terminal备货 demand may pick up in mid - to late August. The key is to focus on the autumn stocking market rhythm and potential cost changes [2]. Group 4: Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7334, 7312, and 7292 respectively, with declines of - 17, - 34, and - 14 and percentage drops of - 0.23%, - 0.46%, and - 0.19%. For PP, the closing prices were 7048, 7048, and 7026, with declines of - 36, - 32, and - 32 and percentage drops of - 0.51%, - 0.45%, and - 0.45% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 210483, 3872, and 77466. The open interests were 341906, 18090, and 147845, with changes of 23091, 1252, and - 25485. For PP, the trading volumes were 198520, 7133, and 56805. The open interests were 391720, 27047, and 99443, with changes of 28363, 1051, and - 11273 [2]. - **Spread**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 22, 20, and - 42, compared to previous values of 5, 40, and - 45. For PP, the current spreads were 0, 22, and - 22, compared to previous values of 4, 22, and - 26 [2]. Group 5: Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2400 yuan/ton, 6425 yuan/ton, 562 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes from the previous values [2]. - **Intermediate Products**: For LL, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton. For PP, the ranges were 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7100 yuan/ton, with some price changes from the previous values [2]. Group 6: News - On August 18, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.42 per barrel, up $0.62 or 0.99% from the previous day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.60 per barrel, up $0.75 or 1.14% from the previous day [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: Short - term, it's difficult for raw sugar prices to fall below previous lows, but the overall trend is bearish. Zhengzhou sugar may rebound but will remain bearish due to increased imports and weak demand [3]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, the corn market has average trading, with a weak sentiment and the futures price will oscillate at a low level. In the long - term, the futures price may decline due to lower costs and increased supply [5]. - **Meal**: Hold long positions in the 01 contract of rapeseed meal. Domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising, and short - term supply is high, which suppresses the spot price [10]. - **Pig**: Spot pig prices are weakly oscillating, and short - term prices are not optimistic. The far - month 01 contract has support but also faces hedging pressure [13]. - **Cotton**: Short - term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range. After new cotton is on the market, prices will face pressure [17]. - **Egg**: Egg futures are still bearish, but low - price demand may support prices, while high supply may limit the increase [21]. 3. Summary by Industry 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.70% to 8670 on August 12. The basis of Y2601 increased by 18.18% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 3.12% to 9260. The basis of P2509 increased by 57.14%. The import profit decreased by 254.50% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.24% to 9760. The basis of OI601 decreased by 180.77% [1]. 3.2 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of SR2601 and SR2509 increased by 0.63% and 0.49% respectively. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 0.19%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.12% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged. The basis decreased. The import price of Brazilian sugar increased [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased by 12.03% and 23.07% respectively year - on - year. Industrial inventory decreased [3]. 3.3 Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price in Jinzhou Port decreased slightly. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 9.46%. The number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 25.25% [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2509 increased by 0.11%. The basis decreased by 4.41%. The profit of Shandong starch increased by 9.71% [5]. 3.4 Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.34%. The basis of M2601 decreased by 23.77%. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans decreased [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 2.99%. The basis of RM2601 decreased by 100%. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed increased [10]. - **Soybean**: The price of domestic and imported soybeans remained stable. The basis of the main contracts changed [10]. 3.5 Pig Industry - **Futures**: The prices of LH2511 and LH2601 increased by 0.64% and 0.42% respectively. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.28% [13]. - **Spot**: Prices in different regions had small fluctuations. The daily slaughter volume remained unchanged [13]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of CF2509 and CF2601 increased by 0.40% and 0.72% respectively. The open interest of the main contract increased by 67.73%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.04% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Xinjiang cotton and related indexes increased slightly. The basis decreased [17]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 13.9%, and industrial inventory increased by 1.8%. Import volume decreased by 25% [17]. 3.7 Egg Industry - **Futures**: The prices of JD09 and JD10 increased by 1.22% and 0.41% respectively. The 9 - 10 spread increased by 31.03% [20]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the production area remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 25.52% [20]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of egg - laying chicks remained stable, the price of culled hens decreased, and the breeding profit decreased significantly [20][21].

【现货消息】 短纤：PF 期货震荡偏强，现货方面工厂报价多维稳，福建局部优惠缩小，下游跟涨意愿低。期现及贸易 商基差报价略有走弱，部分基差报价：新拓 09+170，中磊 09+150，三房 09+160，逸达 09+140，华宏 09-20， 贸易商成交两极分化。今日半光 1.4D 主流重心维持在 6350~6700 区间。工厂销售相对偏淡，截止下午 3:00 附近，平均产销 57%，部分工厂产销：100%、500%、0%、50%、50%、50%、80%、30%、50%。 2025 年 08 月 12 日 短纤：短期震荡市，多 PF 空 PR 瓶片：短期震荡市，多 PF 空 PR 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2509 | 63 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report provides a fundamental tracking of eggs, including futures prices, price spreads, spot prices in different regions, and relevant industrial chain data, as well as the trend strength, but does not explicitly state a core view. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2509 is 3,378, with a daily increase of 0.99 and a trading volume decrease of 21,588 and an open - interest decrease of 19,320; the closing price of egg2601 is 3,624, with a daily decrease of 0.11, a trading volume decrease of 2,794, and an open - interest decrease of 1,128 [1]. - **Price Spread Data**: The egg 9 - 10 spread is 93 on the latest day, compared to 78 the previous day; the egg 9 - 1 spread is - 246 on the latest day, compared to - 300 the previous day [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: In different regions, the latest day's spot prices of eggs in Liaoning and Shanxi are 2.90 yuan/jin, the price in Hebei is 2.62 yuan/jin, and the price in Hubei is 3.09 yuan/jin. The latest day's corn spot price is 2,329 yuan/ton, the soybean meal spot price is 2,920 yuan/ton, and the Henan live - pig price is 14.08 yuan/kg [1]. [Trend Strength] The trend strength is 0, with a value range of [-2, 2] for integer values, and the strength classification includes weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [1].

1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Polyester Industry Chain**: PX supply is expected to increase in August due to new device production and restart of some PX maintenance devices. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and PX is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. PTA supply - demand is expected to improve, but the medium - term outlook is weak. Ethylene glycol supply is turning loose, with a small inventory build - up expected. Short - fiber, bottle - chip, and other products also face different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry**: The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, but the overall supply is sufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be weak, with high port inventory, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Urea Industry**: The main driving force for the rebound of the urea market is the surge in overseas export demand and the expected increase in domestic industrial demand. The secondary driving force is the possible marginal tightening of supply due to local maintenance. The short - term market is still in the shock range, and attention should be paid to multiple factors such as port collection volume and overseas prices [12]. - **Methanol Industry**: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, the port inventory is slightly increasing, the basis is weakening, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to buy at low prices for the 01 contract [17]. - **Chlor - Alkali Industry**: The caustic soda market is in the off - season, with an expected increase in supply, and the overall outlook is neutral to weak. The PVC market is under pressure, with increasing inventory and weak demand, and the price is expected to continue to decline [27]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: The overnight oil price declined due to OPEC+ production increase, which is expected to increase global supply and suppress oil prices in the medium - long term. If there is no greater geopolitical shock, the supply - demand logic will continue to dominate the oil price trend [56]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: In August, the inventory pressure of PP and PE increases, and the demand is at a low level. However, there are potential restocking conditions in the seasonal peak season, and the overall valuation is moderately high with few fundamental contradictions [53]. 3. Summary by Directory Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, most polyester product prices and spreads declined. For example, POY150/48 price dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 74.7% [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: PX supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand is expected to weaken. PTA supply - demand is expected to improve in August, but the medium - term outlook is weak. Ethylene glycol supply is turning loose [2]. - **Strategy**: For PX, close short positions for PX09 and pay attention to the support around 6650. For PTA, close short positions for TA and conduct TA9 - 1 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, most prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene declined. For example, the pure benzene - styrene spot price dropped by 30 yuan/ton, and the EB cash flow decreased significantly [7]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, but the overall supply is sufficient. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be weak, with high port inventory [7]. - **Strategy**: For styrene, close short positions for EB09 [7]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the urea futures price and related spreads showed certain changes, and the spot price also had different degrees of increase or decrease in different regions [12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The main driving force for the rebound is the increase in demand, and the secondary driving force is the possible marginal tightening of supply. The short - term market is still in the shock range [12]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to multiple factors such as port collection volume and overseas prices [12]. Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the methanol futures price and related spreads changed, and the spot price also had different trends in different regions [17]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The domestic production is at a high level, the port inventory is slightly increasing, and the downstream demand is weak [17]. - **Strategy**: Buy at low prices for the 01 contract [17]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the prices of caustic soda and PVC products changed. For example, the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda decreased by 60 yuan/ton, and the price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 30 yuan/ton [22]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The caustic soda market is in the off - season, with an expected increase in supply. The PVC market is under pressure, with increasing inventory and weak demand [27]. - **Strategy**: For caustic soda, hold short positions at high levels. For PVC, expect the price to continue to decline [27]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 6, the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and the spreads between different varieties and contracts also changed [56]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: OPEC+ production increase is expected to increase global supply and suppress oil prices in the medium - long term [56]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a band - trading strategy, with support levels for WTI at [63, 64], Brent at [66, 67], and SC at [495, 505]. Capture volatility contraction opportunities in the options market [56]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the prices of polyolefin futures and spot products increased to varying degrees, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [53]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In August, the inventory pressure of PP and PE increases, and the demand is at a low level, but there are potential restocking conditions in the seasonal peak season [53]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions at 7200 - 7300 for the previous single - side short positions, and continue to hold the LP01 position [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 29, polysilicon prices stopped falling and rebounded. The main 2509 contract closed at 50,805 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 3.76%. The N-type recycled polysilicon material price rose to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also reached 46,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 4,245 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a strong oscillation. The main 2509 contract closed at 9,350 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.35%. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,570 yuan/ton, down 277 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 255 yuan/ton. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology re - emphasized consolidating the comprehensive governance results against excessive competition, highlighting the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics to force out backward production capacity through standard improvement. Polysilicon was boosted by the news and regained momentum. Industrial silicon was driven up by polysilicon and showed a strong performance. Currently, policies still support the market, but after the pre - speculative demand was realized, market sentiment cooled down, and there is insufficient momentum to reach new highs. After the exchange adjusted margins and handling fees, heavy - position chasing and killing should be avoided. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse spread space and PS/SI ratio arbitrage, as well as the resumption of production in the southwest region and policy progress [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,085 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 130 yuan/ton to 8,995 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and in different regions declined. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 150 yuan/ton to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 20 yuan to 255 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 31 to 50,082, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 3,415 tons to 248,550 tons. Other port and factory inventories remained stable [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 1,400 yuan/ton to 50,805 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract increased by 1,340 yuan/ton to 50,745 yuan/ton. All spot prices increased, with the N - type granular silicon material rising by 10,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose by 2,000 yuan/ton to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed by 660 yuan to 4,245 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 50 to 3,070, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.7 tons to 9.06 tons. The factory and social inventories remained unchanged [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market remained at 12,500 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: Data on silicon wafers and battery cells were not available. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades and regions, as well as the prices of silicon stone, refined coal, and electricity [5][7][11]. 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][16]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and changes in weekly inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [19][22]. 3.2.4 Cost - profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC and polysilicon [25][27][31]. 4. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. He is often interviewed by multiple media [33]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [33]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [34].

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: The market's concern about the end - of - month inventory growth will support the market. The futures of crude palm oil may start an upward trend. It is recommended to go long on dips. - Soybean oil: The digestion of the US biodiesel policy has ended. The domestic spot trading is light, but the market sentiment may improve in August [1]. Meal Industry - The US soybean remains in a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Livestock (Pig) Industry - The pig spot market is weak. The short - term pig price is not optimistic, with the near - month contract facing strong resistance. It is not advisable to short the far - month contract blindly [4]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market is not active, with the futures oscillating. In the long run, the supply may be tight in the third quarter and loose in the fourth quarter [6]. Sugar Industry - Internationally, the raw sugar price may bottom out, but the overall trend is bearish. Domestically, the supply - demand situation is marginally loose, with the futures expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [8]. Egg Industry - The egg demand may first decrease and then increase this week. The egg price in some regions may decline next week, but the spot price still has some upward potential [11]. Cotton Industry - The short - term domestic cotton price may oscillate within a range, and the price may face pressure after the new cotton is launched [14]. 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On July 28 - 29, the spot and futures prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different changes, with the basis and spreads also fluctuating. - **Inventory and Market Outlook**: Palm oil inventory concerns support the market, and soybean oil may improve in August [1]. Meal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans changed, with the spreads such as the inter - period spreads and oil - meal ratios also showing fluctuations. - **Market Situation**: The US soybean is at the bottom, and the domestic supply and demand situation affects the meal market [2]. Livestock (Pig) Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The futures and spot prices of pigs changed, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and slaughter volume. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term pig price is not optimistic, and the far - month contract needs cautious operation [4]. Corn Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The prices of corn and corn starch futures and spot, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and inventory, changed. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term market is inactive, and the long - term supply - demand situation varies [6]. Sugar Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The futures and spot prices of sugar, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and inventory, changed. - **Market Outlook**: The international raw sugar is bearish, and the domestic supply - demand is marginally loose [8]. Egg Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The prices of eggs, egg - related products, and indicators such as the basis, spreads, and production costs changed. - **Market Outlook**: The demand may fluctuate, and the price may decline and then rise [11]. Cotton Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The futures and spot prices of cotton, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and inventory, changed. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term price oscillates, and the long - term price may face pressure [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Concern about the high technical pressure level of soybean meal and guard against a pullback after a spike; soybean No. 1 is in a pullback adjustment [1] - On July 18, CBOT soybean futures rose for the third consecutive trading day, with the benchmark contract up 0.8% to a two - week high due to concerns about high - temperature weather threatening US crops and the expectation that US biofuel policies will boost domestic soybean oil demand [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No. 1 2509 closed at 4189 yuan/ton during the day session, down 5 yuan (-0.12%), and 4176 yuan at night, down 22 yuan (-0.52%); DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3056 yuan/ton during the day session, up 45 yuan (+1.49%), and 3067 yuan at night, up 24 yuan (+0.79%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1035 cents/bushel, up 7.75 cents (+0.75%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 288.8 dollars/short ton, up 5.3 dollars (+1.87%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of soybean meal was 2910 - 2960 yuan/ton, up 20 - 40 yuan from the previous day; in East China, it was 2830 - 2920 yuan/ton, up 20 or 40 yuan; in South China, it was 2900 - 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 - 50 yuan [1] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 14.31 million tons/day, down from 16.81 million tons/day in the previous trading day; the inventory was not available, and the previous week's inventory was 84.29 million tons [1] Macro and Industry News - On July 18, CBOT soybean futures rose for three consecutive days. The market was worried that high - temperature weather might threaten US crops, and US biofuel policies would boost domestic soybean oil demand. Traders also focused on the strong expected demand for US soybean oil and closely monitored US weather conditions as August is the critical growth period for soybeans [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1; the trend intensity of soybean No. 1 is 0, referring only to the price fluctuations of the main contract during the day session on the reporting day [3]