有色金属日报 2025-11-20 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 隔夜美股企稳，铜价回升，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收涨 0.98%至 10802 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 86190 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 17375 至 157875 吨，增量主要来自亚洲仓库，注销仓单比例反弹，Cash/3M 维持贴水。国内上期所仓单减少 0.3 至 5.8 万吨，上海地区现货升水期货上调至 85 元/吨，市场成 交情绪延续较好。广东地区库存环比减少，现货升水期货 35 元/吨，持货商挺价意愿强。国内铜现 货进口亏损缩至 300 元 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王法框 | Z0019938 | 2025年11月18日 | | | | | | | | | | | 田和 | 11月17日 | 11月14日 | 涨跌幅 | 狱跌 | | | | | | | | | 江苏一级 | 8590 | 8590 | 0 | 0.00% | 现价 | 8256 | 0.31% | Y2601 | 8282 | 26 | 期价 | | 墓差 | Y2601 | 308 | 334 | -26 | -7.78% | 现货墓差报价 | 01+270 | 01+270 | 0 | 江苏1月 | 5 | | 24993 | -216 | 仓单 | 24777 | -0.86% | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | 11月14日 | 11月17日 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | -0.23% | 广东24度 | 8570 | ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Agricultural products [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [1] - Research team: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] Group 2: Fats and Oils Core Viewpoint - The trends of the three major fats and oils are differentiated. Palm oil lacks driving forces and continues to fluctuate weakly. Rapeseed oil is policy - dominated, and in the short - term, with inventory depletion and tight spot supplies, it is mainly a long - position configuration. Soybean oil fluctuates in the range of 8000 - 8400, with a bottom but limited upside due to high inventory [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market review**: Palm oil is the weakest among the three major fats and oils, showing a fluctuating and weak pattern. Soybean oil futures rebounded slightly, and rapeseed oil is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [8][9] - **Operation suggestions**: For palm oil, wait for clearer guidance; for rapeseed oil, take a long - position configuration; for soybean oil, expect it to fluctuate in the 8000 - 8400 range [9] 2. Core Points - **Domestic spot changes**: As of November 14, 2025, the prices of East China first - grade soybean oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and South China 24 - degree palm oil all increased weekly, and their basis also increased [10] - **Domestic inventory of the three major fats and oils**: As of the end of the 45th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils decreased weekly, with soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showing inventory declines [22] - **Domestic supply of fats and oils and oilseeds**: The soybean opening rate of major domestic soybean oil plants decreased compared to last week, and the rapeseed opening rate of major domestic oil plants was almost at a standstill. The import volume of soybeans and rapeseed in 2025 showed different trends [25][29] - **Palm oil dynamics**: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production, exports, and inventory increased, while imports decreased. From November 1 - 10, production decreased. India's palm oil imports in October decreased [32][33] - **CFTC positions**: Relevant position charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given [44] Group 3: Live Pigs Core Viewpoint - On the supply side, in the long - term, pig slaughter may increase slightly until the first half of next year; in the short - term, the planned slaughter volume in November decreased month - on - month, but the daily average remained the same. On the demand side, secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and terminal consumption may gradually improve. Overall, the spot market will fluctuate, and the futures market will be weak in the medium - to - long - term [95][96] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Spot market**: The average national live pig slaughter price fluctuated weakly this week, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.55%. The expected cost of pig fattening showed different trends, and the breeding profit decreased [48] - **Futures market**: As of Thursday this week, the main live pig futures contract LH2601 fluctuated and declined, with a closing price of 11860 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.67% [49] 2. Fundamental Overview - **Long - term supply: Breeding sow inventory**: The price of binary sows remained stable this week. As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Different data sources have different estimations of future pig slaughter [54][58] - **Medium - term supply: Piglet inventory**: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets increased this week. As of October, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and future pig slaughter is expected to increase [71] - **Short - term supply: Large - pig inventory, hoarding, and secondary fattening**: As of October, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises increased month - on - month. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased, and the proportion of secondary fattening sales decreased. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pens decreased [73][74] - **Current supply: Commercial pig slaughter volume and slaughter weight**: In October 2025, the actual pig sales volume exceeded the planned volume. The planned sales volume in November decreased month - on - month. The average slaughter weight of pigs increased this week [81][82] - **Import supply: Pork imports**: In September 2025, China's pork imports remained the same month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative import volume decreased year - on - year [84] - **Demand**: Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the slaughter enterprise's opening rate increased slightly this week. The national large - scale live pig slaughter volume from January to September 2025 increased year - on - year [90][91] 3. Future Outlook - **Viewpoint**: The spot market will fluctuate, and the futures market will be weak in the medium - to - long - term [95][96] - **Strategy**: Futures investors should wait and see, and breeding enterprises should hold hedging short positions [98] - **Important variables**: Swine fever epidemic, hoarding, and secondary fattening consensus expectations [99] Group 4: Corn Core Viewpoint - On the supply side, new - crop corn has increased production, and the supply is sufficient. Substitute products have reduced price advantages, and future imports may remain low. On the demand side, feed demand is good, but the inventory of feed enterprises is low, and the procurement of deep - processing enterprises is active, but inventory increase is difficult. Overall, the spot price will fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price will be affected by multiple factors [141] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Spot market**: This week, the corn price was strong. In the Northeast, North Port traders raised prices to stimulate arrivals; in North China, farmers were reluctant to sell, and deep - processing enterprises raised prices to purchase; in the sales area, prices increased due to cost factors [100] - **Futures market**: As of November 13, the main Dalian futures contract 2601 closed at 2186 yuan/ton, up 1.5% from last Thursday [101] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Corn supply**: This week, the grain sales progress slowed down, and the overall progress was faster than the same period last year. The inventory of northern and southern ports increased [105][108] - **Domestic substitutes**: This week, the wheat price fluctuated weakly. The corn price was 272 yuan/ton lower than the wheat price [109] - **Import substitute grains**: In September 2025, China's import volume of grains increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of different grains showed different trends. The import profit of Brazilian corn was high, but imports may remain low in the future [110][120] - **Feed demand**: In September 2025, the national industrial feed production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The proportion of corn in feed decreased. Pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly, and feed production is expected to continue to increase [121][129] - **Deep - processing demand**: Recently, the corn starch industry's production profit was good, and the opening rate increased. The processing profit of starch enterprises in different regions changed differently, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased [131][133] - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, China's corn planting area, yield, and consumption are expected to increase, and the inventory is expected to increase [137] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy - **Viewpoint**: The spot price will fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price will be affected by multiple factors [141] - **Strategy**: Spot enterprises should replenish inventory appropriately, and futures investors should hold long positions and set stop - losses [142] - **Important variables**: Policies on purchasing, selling, and storing, tariff policies, geopolitical situations, and weather [143] Group 5: Soybean Meal Core Viewpoint - The external market of soybean meal is close to a short - term high, and the domestic market is cautiously bullish in the short - term. The risk lies in the possibility that China may only purchase a small amount of US soybeans in the future [146][147] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot market**: As of November 14, the coastal soybean meal price increased slightly [145] - **Futures market**: The external market of US soybeans was strong, and the domestic soybean meal rose due to cost - push factors. In the short - term, it should be treated with caution and bullishness [146][147] 2. Core Points - **Soybean planting**: In the USDA September report, the new - crop US soybean planting and harvest area decreased year - on - year, and the yield and inventory were adjusted. The Brazilian and Argentine soybean yields are expected to increase. The US soybean harvest is almost complete, and the Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting progress is different [148][150] - **US soybean exports**: As of September 25, the US soybean export volume decreased year - on - year. After the Sino - US agreement, there are uncertainties about future Chinese purchases [155] - **Domestic soybean imports and crushing**: As of November 13, the crushing profit of imported soybeans was negative. The soybean crushing volume and opening rate decreased. The soybean import volume in October decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The port soybean inventory will be high in the short - term and then decrease [166][168] - **Soybean meal trading and inventory**: As of November 7, the domestic soybean meal inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. The trading was not active in October, and the terminal demand is expected to be good [172] - **Basis and inter - month spreads**: As of November 13, the soybean meal 01 contract basis decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread was stable. The 01 contract is relatively strong, and the 1 - 5 spread may increase [175] - **Domestic registered warehouse receipts**: As of November 13, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were at a relatively high level in the same period of history [180] Group 6: Eggs Core Viewpoint - The spot market will adjust narrowly at a low level next week. The futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term. Long positions in the far - month contracts can be considered at low prices, and a reverse spread between the near - and far - month contracts is appropriate [183] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot market**: The spot market weakened this week, and it is expected to adjust narrowly at a low level next week [183] - **Futures market**: The futures market declined this week, with the near - month contracts falling more. In the future, the far - month contracts may have opportunities [183] 2. Data Summary - **Inventory and replenishment**: As of the end of October 2025, the inventory of laying hens decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The egg - chick replenishment momentum slowed down, and the inventory structure changed [184][186] - **Cost, income, and breeding profit**: As of November 13, the egg price decreased, the feed cost remained stable, the egg - chick price decreased, the breeding profit was at a historically low level but improved compared to last week [189]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Silicon ferroalloy (silicon iron and ferromanganese) is expected to experience wide - range oscillations, with Silicon iron affected by sector sentiment resonance and ferromanganese supported by price - holding sentiment at the ore end [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data** - Silicon iron 2601 closed at 5588, up 62 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 165,588 and an open interest of 162,088. Silicon iron 2605 closed at 5654, up 62, with a trading volume of 3,798 and an open interest of 10,807 [1] - Ferromanganese 2601 closed at 5820, up 60, with a trading volume of 213,766 and an open interest of 354,763. Ferromanganese 2605 closed at 5878, up 64, with a trading volume of 15,756 and an open interest of 45,381 [1] - **Spot Data** - The price of silicon iron (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia was 5220 yuan/ton, and the price of ferromanganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia was 5620 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 40.0 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu was 820 yuan/ton [1] - **Spread Data** - The spot - futures spread of silicon iron (spot - 01 futures) was - 368 yuan/ton, down 62. The spot - futures spread of ferromanganese (spot - 01 futures) was - 200 yuan/ton, down 60 [1] - The near - far month spread of silicon iron 2601 - 2605 was - 66 yuan/ton, unchanged. The near - far month spread of ferromanganese 2601 - 2605 was - 58 yuan/ton, down 4 [1] - The cross - variety spread of ferromanganese 2601 - silicon iron 2601 was 232 yuan/ton, down 2. The cross - variety spread of ferromanganese 2605 - silicon iron 2605 was 224 yuan/ton, up 2 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Coal and Coke News** - On November 6th, the starting price of Hongliulin lump coal, the raw material for semi - coke, was 720 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous period. The auction volume was 7.8 tons, down 2.8 tons. The average transaction price was 783.36 yuan/ton, up 78.39 yuan/ton. The lowest auction price was 773 yuan/ton, and the highest was 790 yuan/ton [1] - **Ferroalloy Price News** - On November 10th, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5100 - 5200 (+50), in Ningxia 5200 - 5250, in Qinghai 5200 - 5250 (+25), in Gansu 5150 - 5250, and in Inner Mongolia 5150 - 5250. The price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5700, in Ningxia 5650 - 5700, in Qinghai 5600 - 5700, in Gansu 5650 - 5700, and in Inner Mongolia 5650 - 5700. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1020 - 1040 (-10), and that of 75 was 1110 - 1130 dollars/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 ferromanganese was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton [2] - **Ferroalloy Tendering News** - A large steel group in Hebei tendered 16,000 tons of ferromanganese in November, 500 tons less than in October. The tender notice for 75B silicon iron was for 2716 tons, 240 tons less than in October [3] - **Ferroalloy Production News** - From January to October 2025, the total national production of ferromanganese was 903.96 million tons, with Inner Mongolia producing 438.51 million tons, accounting for 48.5% of the national total. There are currently 28 operating factories in Inner Mongolia, and 13 have new production capacities, which are expected to be launched from November 2025 to the first three quarters of 2026. The current monthly production of ferromanganese in the factories to be put into operation from the end of 2025 to the first three quarters of 2026 is about 16.1 million tons, and the subsequent new monthly production is expected to be about 25.9 million tons. Over 90% of the new production capacity is for 6517 [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of ferromanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view on both [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as the increase in PP enterprise operating rate, the lower - than - expected demand during the peak season, and the lack of large - scale centralized procurement [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years; however, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2%, with slightly fewer orders compared to the previous week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On November 5th, the restart of maintenance devices such as the single - line of Beihai Refinery led to an increase in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring dropped to around 23% [1][4] - At the beginning of the month, petrochemical inventory accumulated significantly, and currently, it is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - In terms of cost, the market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions, the meeting between Chinese and US leaders met market expectations, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year, and crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range [1] - In terms of supply, the 400,000 - ton/year new production capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices decreased recently [1] - Although it is the peak season for downstream industries, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased week - on - week, the demand during the peak season was lower than expected, and there was a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which had limited impact on the market [1] - After the National Day, the stocking demand weakened periodically, and traders generally offered discounts to stimulate transactions [1] - There has been no actual anti - involution policy implemented in the PP industry, and anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The PP2601 contract increased in positions and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6,477 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,552 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,491 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.13%. The open interest increased by 16,153 lots to 644,601 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined, with drawstring reported at 6,330 - 6,610 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 5th, the restart of maintenance devices such as the single - line of Beihai Refinery led to an increase in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 82%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending October 31st, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years; however, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2%, with slightly fewer orders compared to the previous week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the morning petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 30,000 tons higher than the same period last year [4] - Raw materials: Brent crude oil contract 01 fluctuated around $65 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $15 per ton to $740 per ton week - on - week [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - Supply: PP supply recovery slowed due to more unplanned maintenance, while PE supply is expected to increase as maintenance nears its peak. Overseas inventory clearance at the end of the year may impact the market [2]. - Demand: Demand has improved with increased downstream开工率, but the peak season for agricultural film is approaching, and demand is expected to decline [2]. - Strategy: The 01 contract faces inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may present long - term low - buying opportunities. A reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread is recommended [2]. Methanol Industry - Supply: The port methanol market is under pressure due to high inventory, postponed Iranian gas restrictions, and increased imports. The restart of domestic devices and overseas device shutdowns also affect the supply [5][6]. - Demand: Multiple MTO units reduced their loads due to profit issues, and subsequent maintenance is expected to increase [6]. - Strategy: The 01 contract will continue to trade the "weak reality" logic until Iranian gas restrictions take effect [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is stable despite some plant maintenance, and demand has support in the short term. However, the November supply - demand is expected to be loose, and oil price support is limited. Strategies include reducing long positions above 6600 and short - selling on rallies, and narrowing the PX - SC spread [9]. - PTA: There are many planned maintenance in November, and demand is relatively high. But supply - demand is slightly loose, and oil price support is weak. Strategies include reducing long positions above 4600, short - selling on rallies, and a rolling reverse spread for TA1 - 5 [9]. - Ethylene Glycol: Overseas supply is high in November, and inventory accumulation is expected. Strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options on rallies and a reverse spread for EG1 - 5 [9]. - Short - fiber: Supply is high in the short term, but demand may decline seasonally. Cost support is limited. Strategies are similar to PTA, and narrowing the processing margin on rallies [9]. - Bottle - chip: Supply changes little, and demand is weak in the off - season. The market is in a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price follows the cost. Strategies are similar to PTA, and the processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [9]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply is expected to be loose with many device restarts and new capacity. Demand support is limited as downstream products are mostly in losses. Inventory in East China ports is increasing. Strategies include short - selling on rallies following oil price movements [10]. - Styrene: Supply may slightly decrease, and demand is expected to remain stable. Cost support is weakening. The market is currently in a loose supply - demand situation, and the price drive is limited. Strategies include short - selling on price rebounds for the EB12 contract [10]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: Supply is expected to increase in November with few maintenance enterprises. Demand support is weak as the alumina price is falling and downstream enterprises are consuming their own inventories. The price is expected to be weakly stable, and the overall trend is bearish [11]. - PVC: The supply - demand surplus situation persists. Demand from real estate and other downstream industries is weak, and new capacity will increase supply in November - December. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [11]. Summary by Directory Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices decreased on November 4 compared to November 3. Spot prices of PP and PE also showed changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. The price differences between different contracts and between spot and futures also changed [2]. - **Inventory**: Both PE and PP inventories showed a de - stocking trend [2]. - **开工率**: PE device开工率 decreased slightly, while PP device and powder开工率 increased. Downstream weighted开工率 of both increased [2]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 futures prices decreased on November 4. Spot prices in different regions also decreased, and price differences and basis changed [5]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased, while port inventory decreased slightly, and social inventory increased [5]. - **开工率**: Domestic upstream enterprise开工率 decreased slightly, overseas upstream enterprise开工率 decreased significantly, and some downstream enterprise开工率 increased [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, and other upstream raw material prices also showed different degrees of change [9]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of some polyester products changed slightly, and cash flows also showed different trends [9]. - **PX - related**: PX prices and spreads changed, and the开工率 of Asian and Chinese PX decreased slightly [9]. - **PTA - related**: PTA prices, processing fees, and开工率 changed, and the market is expected to be slightly loose in terms of supply - demand [9]. - **MEG - related**: MEG prices, spreads, and开工率 changed, and the market is expected to accumulate inventory [9]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil and raw material prices decreased, and pure benzene prices and spreads changed [10]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices and spreads decreased, and cash flows also declined [10]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased, while styrene inventory decreased [10]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of some pure benzene and styrene - related industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [10]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda prices and spreads changed on November 4 compared to November 3 [11]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes for caustic soda and PVC remained stable, but export profits changed [11]. - **Supply - related**: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries increased, and the profit of PVC production methods also changed [11]. - **Demand - related**: The开工率 of caustic soda and PVC downstream industries changed, and PVC pre - sales volume increased [11]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda inventory in some regions increased, while PVC total social inventory decreased slightly [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry Chain - PX: In November, with few PX unit overhauls in Asia and China, but concentrated PTA unit overhauls, PX supply - demand is expected to be weak. PX absolute prices are expected to gradually face pressure. The strategy is to follow crude oil for unilateral trading and go short on rallies, and try to shrink the PX - SC spread [1]. - PTA: In November, there are still many PTA unit overhaul plans. With better - than - expected terminal and polyester demand in October and low polyester inventory, PTA supply - demand is expected to be slightly loose with a small inventory accumulation expectation. PTA will continue to oscillate at a low level. The strategy is to follow crude oil for unilateral trading and go short on rallies, and treat TA1 - 5 as a rolling reverse spread [1]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): In November, domestic supply is high, overseas shipments are concentrated, and inventory accumulation is expected to be high, putting pressure on the price. The strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies and do a reverse spread on EG1 - 5 on rallies [1]. - Short Fiber: In November, supply is expected to remain high, demand may weaken seasonally, and cost support is limited. Short - fiber prices will gradually face pressure. The strategy is similar to PTA for PF12, and try to shrink the PF processing margin when it is above 1000 [1]. - Bottle Chips: In November, supply changes little, demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Bottle - chip prices will follow the cost side, and the processing margin will fluctuate with raw material costs. The strategy is similar to PTA for PR, and the main - contract processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [1]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: In November, supply is expected to increase, demand support is weak, and prices are expected to be weakly stable. The overall trend is bearish, and it is necessary to track downstream restocking rhythm [2]. - PVC: In October, PVC prices continued to decline. In November - December, supply pressure will continue due to new capacity and high - season operation, and demand is in the off - season. Prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [2]. Methanol Industry The current market is trading the "weak reality" logic centered on high port inventory. Before the Iranian gas restriction, the weak reality will continue to be priced in. The 01 - contract inventory problem cannot be solved [3][4][5]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: In November, supply is expected to be loose, demand support is limited, and although the East China port inventory decreased in October, it may increase later. Pure - benzene prices are expected to have weak driving force, but attention should be paid to unit changes [8]. - Styrene: In November, supply may slightly decrease, demand is expected to change little, and the supply - demand may be in a tight - balance state. However, high port inventory will limit price increases. The strategy is to be bearish on EB12 price rebounds [8]. Polyolefin Industry PP supply recovery has slowed down due to unplanned overhauls, while PE supply is expected to increase. Demand has recovered, but the agricultural film peak is approaching. Overall, supply will increase and demand will decrease, and there is inventory pressure on the 01 - contract. The 05 - contract may have long - term low - buying opportunities, and the monthly spread is suitable for reverse spreads [10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain Price and Spread - Upstream: Brent crude oil (December) dropped 0.1% to $65.00/barrel, WTI crude oil (December) dropped 0.7% to $60.57/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha rose 1.4% to $573/ton, etc. [1] - Downstream: POY150/48 price remained unchanged at 6415 yuan/ton, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged at 6690 yuan/ton, etc. [1] - PX: CFR China PX rose 0.4% to $820/ton, PX spot price (RMB) dropped 2.4% to 6753 yuan/ton [1]. - PTA: PTA East China spot price dropped 0.6% to 4535 yuan/ton, TA2601 futures rose 0.4% to 4586 yuan/ton [1]. - MEG: MEG port inventory dropped 9.7% to 52.3 million tons, MEG arrival expectation rose 273.6% to 19.8 million tons [1]. 开工率 - Asian PX开工率 dropped 0.5% to 78.1%, Chinese PX开工率 rose 1.1% to 87.0%, PTA开工率 dropped 0.8% to 78.0%, etc. [1] Chlor - Alkali Industry Price and Spread - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) remained at 2500 yuan/ton, East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price dropped 1.1% to 4610 yuan/ton [2]. 开工率 - Caustic soda industry开工率 rose 0.1% to 85.6%, PVC total开工率 dropped 1.9% to 73.7% [2]. 库存 - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory dropped 3.8% to 18.8 million tons, PVC upstream factory inventory dropped 7.4% to 33.4 million tons [2]. Methanol Industry Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2180 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the previous day, and the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's north line dropped 9.09% to 150 yuan/ton [3]. 库存 - Methanol enterprise inventory rose 4.36% to 37.606%, methanol port inventory dropped 0.38% to 150.6 million tons [4]. 开工率 - Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 dropped 0.09% to 75.78%, downstream external - procurement MTO device开工率 rose 7.63% to 84.06% [5]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Price and Spread - CFR China pure benzene rose 0.4% to $677/ton, styrene East China spot price rose 1.1% to 6470 yuan/ton [8]. 库存 - Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory dropped 14.1% to 8.50 million tons, styrene Jiangsu port inventory dropped 4.7% to 19.30 million tons [8]. 开工率 - Asian pure benzene开工率 dropped 0.5% to 78.8%, domestic styrene开工率 dropped 3.7% to 66.7% [8]. Polyolefin Industry Price and Spread - L2601 closed at 6968 yuan/ton, down 0.99% from the previous day, PP2601 closed at 6590 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from the previous day [10]. 库存 - PE enterprise inventory dropped 19.16% to 41.6 million tons, PP enterprise inventory dropped 6.80% to 59.5 million tons [10]. 开工率 - PE device开工率 dropped 0.73% to 80.9%, PP device开工率 rose 1.5% to 77.1% [10].

奥对，CD市值是小于HQF的，意思就是，市值再小，现货能浇给就浇给，合约操盘还要成本，现货浇给是空手套白狼 ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Supply -产区雨水偏多至月底,原料价格上涨,短时成本端支撑胶价,中长线供应放量预期仍在;需求 - 半钢胎企业排产稳定,全钢胎企业出货平稳但部分库存攀升;隔夜美联储对12月降息前景偏鹰,胶价短期承压,后续关注主产区旺产期原料产出及宏观变化,若原料上量顺利胶价有下行空间,若不畅预计胶价在15000 - 15500附近运行 [1] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: 云南国富手机胶等部分现货价格有涨跌,如云南国富手机胶涨0.34%,泰标混合胶跌1.32% [1] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: 9 - 1价差等有变动,如9 - 1价差涨3.45%,1 - 5价差跌12.50% [1] - **Fundamental Data**: 8月部分国家产量有变化,如泰国产量降0.43%,印度产量涨11.11%;轮胎开工率、产量、出口量及橡胶进口量等有不同表现,如8月国内轮胎产量涨9.10%,9月轮胎出口量降10.65% [1] - **Inventory Change**: 保税区库存等有增减,如保税区库存降1.20%,上期所厂库期货库存涨6.28% [1] Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 本周供应端到港量大增,但下游订单不足,周边港口价格下行,市场承压;盘面价格处相对低位,内外盘价格倒挂形成进口成本支撑,限制下方空间,供需双弱格局下,原木期货盘面预计仍将维持偏弱震荡运行 [3] Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: 原木期货部分合约价格下跌,如主力LG2601跌1元/立方米;部分现货价格下降,如江苏4米中A辐射松价格降10元/方 [3] - **Cost**: 人民币兑美元汇率及进口理论成本变化小,分别涨0%和0% [3] - **Supply**: 港口发运量和离港船数增加,如新西兰→中日韩港口发运量涨6.00%,离港船数涨4.55% [3] - **Inventory**: 全国针叶原木总库存减少,日均出库量增加,如库存降2.74%,出库量增2% [3] Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint - **Soda Ash**: 宏观因素使商品盘面利空,前期反弹停止;周产高位,刚需过剩,厂家库存转移至中下游;中期下游产能无大幅增量,需求延续刚需格局,供需承压;阶段性利空基本出尽,建议前期空单止盈离场,短期观望,等待反弹空机会 [4] - **Glass**: 宏观因素使商品盘面利空,前期反弹停止;前几日玻璃现货产销转暖带动盘面反弹,中下游补库,期现商采购积极;深加工订单季节性好转但仍弱,地产周期底部竣工缩量,行业需产能出清;前期盘面下跌利空基本兑现,建议前期空单离场,关注现货捕捉短多机会 [4] Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: 玻璃部分合约价格下跌,如玻璃2505跌2.81%,玻璃2509跌2.21% [4] - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: 纯碱部分合约价格下跌,如纯碱2505跌1.71%,纯碱2509跌1.34% [4] - **Supply**: 纯碱开工率和周产量下降,光伏日熔量下降,如纯碱开工率降1.72%,周产量降1.71%,光伏日熔量降0.84% [4] - **Inventory**: 玻璃厂库和纯碱厂库库存增加,纯碱交割库库存减少,如玻璃厂库增4.72%,纯碱厂库增2.54%,纯碱交割库降3.18% [4] - **Real Estate Data**: 新开工面积等有变化,如新开工面积涨幅0.09%,施工面积降2.43% [4] Group 4: Industrial Silicone Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 工业硅现货价格上涨,期货价格先涨后回落;周度供应端产量增加,需求端产量下降或致累库施压价格;华东套利窗口打开或带来套保机会;焦煤价格上涨或带动期价;工业硅供应增加使价格承压,但有成本支撑,预计低位震荡,价格波动区间8500 - 9500元/吨 [5] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: 华东通氧SI5530等现货价格上涨,如华东通氧SI5530涨1.07%,华东SI4210涨0.52% [5] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: 部分合约价差有变动,如2512 - 2601价差涨200.00%,2601 - 2602价差跌66.67% [5] - **Fundamental Data**: 全国和部分地区工业硅产量、开工率有变化,如全国工业硅产量涨9.10%,新疆开工率涨22.09%;有机硅DMC等产量有增减,如有机硅DMC产量降5.78%,再生铝合金产量涨7.48% [5] - **Inventory Change**: 新疆厂库等库存有增减,如新疆厂库库存降0.28%,云南厂库库存涨1.47% [5] Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 多晶硅现货价格小幅下跌,期货价格震荡下跌;供应端11月产量有望下降,周度产量和硅片产量均有3 - 4%降幅;需求端硅片排产增加但下游采购减少,库存增加;多晶硅高位震荡,关注平台公司成立、产量控制及需求端订单情况;期货升水现货均价,继续大幅上涨需关注上游套保套利空间 [7] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: N型复投料平均价等有涨跌,如N型复投料平均价跌0.10%,N型颗粒硅平均价持平 [7] - **Futures Price and Inter - monthly Spread**: 主力合约等价格和价差有变动,如主力合约跌0.07%,景月 - 连一价差跌16.06% [7] - **Fundamental Data**: 周度和月度多晶硅、硅片产量等有变化,如周度多晶硅产量降4.41%,月度硅片产量涨5.37% [7] - **Inventory Change**: 多晶硅和硅片库存增加,如多晶硅库存涨1.16%,硅片库存涨2.49% [7]

Report Overview - The report consists of four parts: Polyolefin Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report, Pure Benzene - Styrene Daily Report, Polyester Industry Chain Daily Report, and Chlor - Alkali Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report, covering price, inventory, and开工率 data of multiple chemical products, along with corresponding investment strategies [2][4][9][10] Polyolefin Industry Price Changes - L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices all increased on October 29, with L2601 up 0.34%, L2509 up 0.06%, PP2601 up 0.42%, and PP2509 up 0.37% [2] - Some spot prices remained stable, while华北LDPE膜料现货 rose 0.15% [2] Inventory and开工率 - PE企业 inventory decreased by 19.16% to 41.6 tons, and社会库存 decreased slightly by 0.04% to 54.5 tons [2] - PP企业 inventory decreased by 6.80% to 59.5 tons, and贸易商库存 decreased by 10.48% to 21.4 tons [2] - PE装置开工率 decreased by 0.37% to 81.5%, while下游加权开工率 increased by 1.85% to 45.8% [2] - PP装置开工率 decreased by 2.9% to 75.9%, while粉料开工率 increased by 7.1% to 41.4%, and下游加权开工率 increased by 1.0% to 52.4% [2] Core View - PP supply recovery slowed due to more unplanned maintenance, while PE supply is expected to increase. Demand improved, and both inventories decreased. Consider long - term low - buying opportunities for the 05 contract and track sanctions' impact on refinery loads [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Price Changes - Upstream prices such as布伦特原油 and WTI原油 increased slightly on October 29, while纯苯中石化华东挂牌价 remained unchanged [4] -苯乙烯华东现货 and related futures prices increased, with苯乙烯华东现货 up 0.6% [5] Inventory and开工率 -纯苯江苏港口库存 decreased by 14.1% to 8.50 tons, and苯乙烯江苏港口库存 decreased by 4.7% to 19.30 tons [7] -亚洲纯苯开工率 remained unchanged at 79.2%, while国内纯苯开工率 decreased by 3.6% to 72.7% [8] Core View - No specific core view was mentioned in the text, but price, inventory, and开工率 data can be used for investment analysis Polyester Industry Chain Price Changes - Upstream prices such as布伦特原油 and CFR日本石脑油 increased slightly on October 29 [9] - Most下游聚酯 product prices remained stable, with聚酯切片 price up 0.1% [9] Inventory and开工率 - MEG港口库存 decreased by 9.7% to 52.3 tons, and到港预期 increased significantly by 273.6% to 19.8 tons [9] -亚洲PX开工率 increased by 0.5% to 78.5%, and中国PX开工率 increased by 1.0% to 85.9% [9] Core View - PX supply contracted, and demand support strengthened. However, PX rebound space is limited. PTA,乙二醇,短纤, and瓶片 also have corresponding supply - demand situations and investment strategies [9] Chlor - Alkali Industry Price Changes -山东32%液碱折百价 and山东50%液碱折百价 remained unchanged on October 29, while华东电石法PVC市场价 increased by 0.4% [10] Inventory and开工率 -烧碱行业开工率 increased slightly by 0.1% to 85.6%, and烧碱山东样本开工率 increased by 3.2% to 86.6% [13] - PVC总开工率 decreased by 1.9% to 73.7% [13] Core View - No specific core view was mentioned in the text, but price, inventory, and开工率 data can be used for investment analysis