| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年9月29日 | | | | 壬泽辉 | Z0019938 | | 臣治 | | | | | | | | 9月26日 | | 0月25日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 8470 | | 8440 | 30 | 0.36% | | 期价 | Y2601 8162 | | 8192 | -30 | -0.37% | | 墓差 | Y2601 308 | | 248 | 60 | 24.19% | | 现货墓差报价 | 01+220 江苏1月 | | 01+230 | -10 | r | | 仓单 | 25534 | | 25534 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | 9月26日 | | 9月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 广东24度 9230 | | 9170 | 60 | 0.65% | | 期分 | P2601 9236 | | 9222 | 14 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View No clear core view presented in the given content. It mainly provides daily data on iron ore including futures prices, spot prices, basis, spreads, import profits, and more. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Prices - DCE01: Today's price is 808.5, up 1.0 from yesterday; DCE05 is 786.0, unchanged; DCE09 is 766.0, up 2.0 [2] - Inter - contract spreads: I01 - I05 is 22.5, up 1.0; I05 - I09 is 20.0, down 2.0; I09 - I01 is - 42.5, up 1.0 [2] Spot Prices - Various iron ore spot prices increased compared to the previous day. For example, PB powder (60.8%) rose from 780 to 786, Newman powder from 789 to 796, etc. [2] Basis - The basis of different iron ore varieties to different contracts is provided. For the optimal delivery product (Roy Hill powder), the 01 - contract basis is 34, 05 - contract basis is 55, and 09 - contract basis is 77 [2] Spot Variety Spreads - Spreads between different iron ore varieties changed. For example, the spread of Carajás fines - PB powder increased from 128 to 129 [2] Import Profits - Import profits of different iron ore varieties changed. For example, the import profit of Carajás fines decreased from 18 to 3 [2] Indexes - The Platts 62% iron ore price increased from 105.2 to 106.6, the 65% price remained unchanged at 120.8, and the 58% price increased from 93.3 to 94.6 [2] 内外盘美金价差 - The spreads between SGX and DCE contracts increased. For example, SGX main - DCE01 increased from 7.2 to 7.5 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Last week, the caustic soda futures stopped falling and stabilized, with a sharp rebound on Friday. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, and the operating rate of sample manufacturers will rise. The profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises is narrowing, and the support for spot prices is weak. The inventory in North China is rising, while that in East China is falling. In the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, there may be a price cut in the short - term [2]. - **PVC**: Last week, the PVC futures rebounded due to macro - warming, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to ease. Next week, the output is expected to increase as many enterprises finish maintenance. The downstream demand is limited, and the procurement enthusiasm is average. The cost provides bottom - support. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize in September - October [2]. Urea Industry The urea futures are weakly declining. The supply may increase, and the demand from the autumn fertilizer market and industry is weak. The export new orders are limited. If there is no export surge or early shutdown of gas - based plants, the price may fall below 1,550 yuan/ton [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak. In September, the supply may remain at a high level, and the demand support is weak. The price driving force is weak. The strategy for BZ2603 is to follow the styrene fluctuations [13]. - **Styrene**: The weekly supply - demand of styrene is also weak. The strategy is to be bearish on the absolute price rebound of EB11, and expand the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level, but the driving force is limited [13]. PX - PTA - MEG Industry - **PX**: The supply of PX may increase due to short - process capacity increase and postponed maintenance. The demand is affected by PTA maintenance. The price is under pressure, and the basis boost is limited [17]. - **PTA**: The processing fee of PTA is low, and new device production is postponed. The demand is in the peak season, but the basis and processing fee repair drive is insufficient. The absolute price follows the cost [17]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand of MEG is gradually weakening. In the short - term, the import is not high, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long - term, it will enter the inventory accumulation period in the fourth quarter [17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber supply is high, and the demand is limited during the peak season. The price has support at the low level, but the rebound drive is limited [17]. - **Bottle chips**: The bottle chip device restart and shutdown coexist. The downstream replenishment supports the price and processing fee, but the increase is limited [17]. Polyolefin Industry PP production has decreased due to losses in PDH and external propylene procurement routes, and the inventory has declined. PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the operating rate is rising. The upper - middle stream inventory has decreased. North American import offers are increasing. The inventory accumulation pressure of 01 contract is large, limiting the upside [22]. Methanol Industry The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian loading. The coastal inventory has reached a historical high, the market sentiment is poor, and the price is weak. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is weak. The overall valuation is neutral. The market is swinging between high inventory and overseas gas - limit expectations. Attention should be paid to the inventory turning point [30][32]. Crude Oil Industry Last week, oil prices fluctuated weakly. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the market focuses on the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the demand is weak. The short - term oil prices are under pressure. Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, with SC resistance at 505 - 510, Brent at 68 - 69, and WTI at 64 - 65. Arbitrage is recommended to be long - spread, and options are recommended to buy put options [40]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On September 19, compared with the previous day, the prices of some products such as SH2509, SH2601, V2509, and V2601 increased, while the basis and spreads of some products changed [2]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China ports increased, and the export profit increased significantly. The export profit of PVC decreased [2]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries decreased [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of some products such as liquid caustic soda in Shandong and PVC total social inventory changed [2]. Urea Industry - **Supply**: The daily and weekly production of urea, and the operating rate of production plants are provided. The supply may increase [7]. - **Demand**: The demand from the autumn fertilizer market and industry is weak, and the export new orders are limited [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of urea in factories and ports is provided [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, etc. decreased. The prices of pure benzene and styrene also decreased. The spreads and import profits changed [13]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased [13]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene - styrene chain changed [13]. PX - PTA - MEG Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, MX, etc. decreased. The prices of PX, PTA, and MEG also decreased. The spreads and basis changed [15][17]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Inventory**: No relevant content provided. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 decreased. The basis and spreads changed [22]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP changed [22]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and downstream industries changed [22]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MA2601 and MA2509 changed. The basis and regional spreads changed [30]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of methanol changed [30]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol changed [30]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil and Product Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC changed. The prices of refined oil products and their spreads also changed [38]. - **Market Analysis**: The oil prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalance and weakening geopolitical support [40].

Group 1: Oil and Fat Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Palm oil futures in Malaysia are expected to maintain strong consolidation around 4,500 ringgit, and domestic palm oil futures may follow the upward trend. For soybean oil, the domestic supply is abundant, and the spot basis quote may rise as soybean supply decreases [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Soybean Oil**: On September 17, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,690 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,366 yuan/ton, down 0.62%. The basis of Y2601 increased by 33.88%. The inventory of soybean oil in factories increased by about 10,000 tons last weekend [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,450 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The futures price of P2601 was 9,424 yuan/ton, down 0.61%. The basis of P2601 increased by 131.71%. The import cost increased by 1.03%, and the import profit decreased by 79.70% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of Grade - 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,110 yuan/ton, up 0.50%. The futures price of O1601 was down 0.54%. The basis of O1601 increased by 1485.71% [1]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased. The soybean - palm oil spread and rapeseed - soybean oil spread showed different trends [1]. Group 2: Corn and Corn Starch Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In the short - term, the corn market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the futures price may fluctuate weakly, with strong support around 2,150 yuan/ton. In the medium - term, it will remain weak, and attention should be paid to the new grain purchase rhythm and opening price [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Corn**: The price of corn 2511 at Jinzhou Port decreased, and the basis decreased by 10.42%. The 11 - 3 spread decreased by 150.00%. The north - south trade profit increased by 51.28%, and the import profit increased by 0.82% [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 increased by 0.41%. The basis decreased by 8.55%. The starch - corn spread increased by 5.42% [2]. Group 3: Sugar Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The raw sugar price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern between 15 - 17 cents/pound. The domestic sugar market has现货 pressure, and the futures price may stabilize around 5,500 yuan/ton in the short - term, but the rebound space is limited, and a high - selling strategy is recommended [6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and 2605 decreased. The ICE raw sugar主力 decreased by 2.33%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 17.39%. The position of the主力 contract increased by 0.67%, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 2.48% [6]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Guosan and Kunming decreased. The Nanning basis decreased by 1.64%, and the Kunming basis increased by 2.64%. The import prices of Brazilian sugar (both quota - within and quota - outside) decreased [6]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative production and sales of sugar in the country increased year - on - year. The production and cumulative sales rate in Guangxi also increased, while the monthly sales volume in Guangxi decreased. The industrial inventory in the country increased, and the import volume increased significantly [6]. Group 4: Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and they will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and 2601 decreased slightly. The ICE US cotton主力 decreased by 0.72%. The 5 - 1 spread decreased by 14.29%. The position of the主力 contract decreased by 0.27%, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 3.03% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B increased slightly. The difference between CC Index:3128B and FC Index:M: 1% decreased by 6.75% [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial and industrial inventories decreased. The import volume increased, and the export volume of textile products showed different trends. The downstream finished product inventory was still decreasing, but the shipment slowed down [8]. Group 5: Meal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The supply - demand situation of US soybeans is strong on the supply side and weak on the demand side. The domestic supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be sufficient, but there is uncertainty in the supply from January to February next year. Attention should be paid to the support of the 01 contract around 3,000 yuan/ton [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.65%, and the futures price of M2601 decreased by 1.28%. The basis of M2601 decreased by 100.00%. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans in November increased [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.91%, and the futures price of RM2601 decreased by 2.30%. The basis of RM2601 increased by 7.84%. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in November decreased [10]. - **Soybeans**: The prices of domestic and imported soybeans were stable or decreased slightly. The bases of the first and second - grade soybean contracts increased [10]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased. The oil - meal ratio and the difference between soybean and rapeseed meal showed different trends [10]. Group 6: Pig Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The spot price of pigs lacks support. The near - month futures contracts will maintain a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The prices of pig 2511 and 2601 decreased. The 11 - 1 spread increased by 1.92%. The position of the主力 contract increased by 10.86% [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in various regions decreased. The daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.40%, and the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.65% [12]. - **Other Indicators**: The self - breeding profit decreased by 68.02%, and the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 28.27%. The inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly [12][15]. Group 7: Egg Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Egg prices may rise to the annual high due to increased demand, but the high inventory and cold - storage egg release may limit the increase. After the replenishment of traders next week, the demand may weaken, and local egg prices may decline slightly [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 11 - contract increased by 0.10%, and the price of the 10 - contract decreased by 1.00%. The 11 - 10 spread increased by 147.83% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased by 0.23%, and the basis increased by 0.89% [17]. - **Industry Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings decreased by 13.33%, and the price of culled chickens decreased by 0.22%. The egg - feed ratio increased by 2.88%, and the breeding profit increased by 20.84% [17].

1. General Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, corn, pigs, and meal products, dated September 15, 2025 [1][4][5][8][11][14][17] 2. Industry - Specific Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports 3. Core Views Oils and Fats - CBOT soybean oil may fall again due to seasonal decline in consumption and potential high - throughput of factories. The basis of spot soybean oil will have limited short - term fluctuations. Malaysian palm oil futures are in a consolidation phase, facing potential downward pressure from increasing production and weak export data. The Dalian palm oil futures may follow suit and face a risk of downward break - through. The September 13 USDA report on soybeans is neutral to bearish, and the industrial demand for US soybean oil decreases after summer [1] Sugar - The raw sugar price is expected to maintain a bottom - side oscillation between 15 - 17 cents per pound. Domestic sugar has high inventory pressure, and the short - term futures may stabilize around 5500, but the rebound space is limited. A short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [4] Cotton - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range. As new cotton is expected to be listed in the future, prices may face downward pressure [5] Eggs - Egg prices may rise to the annual high due to increased demand from traders, but the high inventory and cold - storage egg release may limit the increase. After traders finish restocking next week, egg prices in some areas may decline slightly [8][9] Corn - In the short term, the corn market will gradually shift to a supply - demand loosening situation, with the futures oscillating weakly. In the medium term, the bearish situation remains, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is advisable [11] Pigs - The spot pig prices have limited room for further decline due to farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices and secondary fattening. However, considering the supply recovery and uncertain demand, the prices may continue to bottom - out after a short - term rebound [15] Meal Products - The global soybean supply - demand situation has some changes, with US soybean production increasing and the global stocks - to - use ratio slightly decreasing. In China, the concern about future supply is alleviated, and the spot market is loose. However, due to cost support, the decline space of domestic meal products is limited [17] 4. Industry - Specific Summaries Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8610 yuan, up 70 yuan (0.82%) from September 11. The Y2601 futures price is 8018 yuan, down 8 yuan (- 0.10%). The basis of Y2601 is 592 yuan, up 78 yuan (15.18%) [1] - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9320 yuan, up 100 yuan (1.08%). The P2601 futures price is 9062 yuan, down 52 yuan (- 0.57%). The basis of P2601 is 258 yuan, up 152 yuan (143.40%). The September import cost in Guangzhou Port is 9679.8 yuan, up 39.2 yuan (0.41%), and the import profit is - 618 yuan, down 91 yuan (- 17.31%) [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10040 yuan, up 100 yuan (1.01%). The OI601 futures price is 9547 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 0.53%) [1] Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of Sugar 2601 is 5540 yuan, down 16 yuan (- 0.29%); Sugar 2605 is 5517 yuan, down 7 yuan (- 0.13%); ICE raw sugar is 15.81 cents per pound, up 0.01 cent (0.06%). The 1 - 5 spread is 23 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 28.13%) [4] - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning is 5890 yuan, unchanged; in Kunming is 5855 yuan, up 5 yuan (0.09%). The import price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4418 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.45%); outside the quota is 5611 yuan, up 26 yuan (0.47%) [4] - **Industry Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons (12.03%); sales are 1000.00 million tons, up 114.00 million tons (12.87%). The cumulative sales ratio in the country is 89.60%, up 0.66 percentage points (0.74%); in Guangxi is 89.04%, up 0.62 percentage points (0.70%) [4] Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of Cotton 2605 is 13820 yuan, up 25 yuan (0.18%); Cotton 2601 is 13860 yuan, up 25 yuan (0.18%); ICE US cotton is 66.76 cents per pound, up 0.02 cent (0.03%). The 5 - 1 spread is - 40 yuan, unchanged [5] - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 15182 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 0.03%); CC Index 3128B is 15248 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 0.01%); FC Index M 1% is 13371 yuan, up 18 yuan (0.13%) [5] - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory is 148.17 million tons, down 33.85 million tons (- 18.6%); industrial inventory is 89.23 million tons, down 3.19 million tons (- 3.5%). The import volume is 5.00 million tons, up 2.00 million tons (66.7%) [5] Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of Egg 11 contract is 3040 yuan per 500KG, down 4 yuan (- 0.13%); Egg 10 contract is 3023 yuan per 500KG, down 20 yuan (- 0.66%). The 11 - 10 spread is 17 yuan, up 16 yuan (1600.00%) [8] - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price is 3.54 yuan per jin, up 0.07 yuan (1.92%); the basis is 496 yuan per 500KG, up 70 yuan (16.56%) [8] - **Industry Situation**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks is 2.60 yuan per chick, down 0.40 yuan (- 13.33%); the price of culled chickens is 4.61 yuan per jin, down 0.01 yuan (- 0.22%); the egg - feed ratio is 2.50, up 0.07 (2.88%); the breeding profit is - 17.89 yuan per chick, up 4.71 yuan (20.84%) [8] Corn - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2511 is 2197 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.23%); the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price is 2310 yuan, unchanged. The basis is 113 yuan, up 5 yuan (4.63%); the 11 - 3 spread is 14 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 12.50%) [11] - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2511 is 2474 yuan, down 3 yuan (- 0.12%); the Changchun spot price is 2560 yuan, unchanged; the Weifang spot price is 2800 yuan, unchanged. The basis is 86 yuan, up 3 yuan (3.61%); the 11 - 3 spread is - 23 yuan, up 4 yuan (14.81%) [11] Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of Live Pig 2511 is 13255 yuan, down 65 yuan (- 0.49%); Live Pig 2601 is 13690 yuan, down 40 yuan (- 0.29%). The 11 - 1 spread is - 435 yuan, down 25 yuan (- 6.10%) [15] - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan is 13450 yuan, down 50 yuan; in Shandong is 13550 yuan, up 50 yuan; in Sichuan is 13350 yuan, unchanged; in Liaoning is 13100 yuan, unchanged; in Guangdong is 14390 yuan, up 100 yuan; in Hunan is 13210 yuan, unchanged; in Hebei is 13400 yuan, unchanged [15] - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 148973, up 965 (0.65%); the weekly white - strip price is 0.00 yuan, down 20.1 yuan (- 100.00%); the weekly piglet price is 26.00 yuan, unchanged; the weekly sow price is 32.51 yuan, unchanged; the weekly slaughter weight is 128.32 kg, up 0.1 kg (0.07%); the weekly self - breeding profit is 17 yuan, down 35.8 yuan (- 68.02%); the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit is - 162 yuan, down 35.7 yuan (- 28.27%); the monthly fertile sow inventory is 40420000 heads, down 10000 heads (- 0.02%) [15] Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 3050 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.66%); M2601 futures price is 3079 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 0.29%); the basis of M2601 is - 29 yuan, up 29 yuan (50.00%). The import crushing profit for US Gulf shipments is not given; for Brazilian November shipments is 60, down 18 (- 30.0%) [17] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2650 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.76%); RM2601 futures price is 2531 yuan, down 36 yuan (- 1.40%); the basis of RM2601 is 119, up 56 (88.89%). The import crushing profit for Canadian November shipments is 815, down 66 (- 7.49%) [17] - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans is 3980 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract is 3959 yuan, up 14 yuan (0.35%); the basis is 21, down 14 (- 40.00%). The price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3900 yuan, up 100 yuan (2.63%); the futures price of the main soybean - two contract is 3759 yuan, up 4 yuan (0.11%); the basis is 141, up 96 (213.33%) [17] - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 259, down 20 (- 7.17%); the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 125, down 22 (- 14.97%); the oil - meal ratio of the spot is 2.82, up 0.004 (0.16%); the oil - meal ratio of the main contract is 2.70, up 0.003 (0.12%); the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread is 400, unchanged; the 2601 spread is 548, up 27 (5.18%) [17]

币安的新币狂暴拉盘行情还记得币安很长一段时间上现货都没有效应了，所以才有了不看好就做空一说。然而现在没实力的项目方大多被打进 alpha 之后，上现货又有筛选项目方的作用了？ https://t.co/KnrCxVzgx4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for short - fiber and bottle - chip are both "short - term shock and slightly strong" [1] Core Viewpoints - Short - fiber futures fluctuate and consolidate following raw materials, with stable factory quotes and limited spot trading. The average sales - to - production ratio is 63%. Bottle - chip factory quotes are mostly stable, the market trading atmosphere is fair, and export quotes are also stable [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Short - fiber - For short - fiber contracts, short - fiber 2510 closed at 6376, down 2 from the previous day; short - fiber 2511 closed at 6370, up 6; short - fiber 2512 closed at 6356, up 18. PF10 - 11 was 6, down 8; PF11 - 12 was 14, down 12. The basis was 100, down 6. The main contract's open interest was 144,980, down 13,832, and the trading volume was 184,338, down 4035. The spot price in East China remained at 6470, and the sales - to - production ratio increased from 54% to 63% [1] Bottle - chip - For bottle - chip contracts, bottle - chip 2510 closed at 5840, down 6; bottle - chip 2511 closed at 5844, down 4; bottle - chip 2512 closed at 5848, down 10. PR10 - 11 was - 4, down 2; PR11 - 12 was - 4, up 6. The main contract's basis was - 14, down 6. The main contract's open interest was 37,689, down 123, and the trading volume was 34,262, up 2093. The spot price in East China dropped from 5840 to 5830, and in South China, it dropped from 5900 to 5890 [1] Spot News Short - fiber - Short - fiber futures fluctuate with raw materials, factory quotes are stable, and spot trading is limited. Semi - dull 1.4D is mainly traded in the range of 6400 - 6700. The average sales - to - production ratio is 63% as of 3:00 pm [1] Bottle - chip - Upstream polyester raw material futures closed slightly higher, bottle - chip factory quotes are mostly stable. The domestic market trading atmosphere is fair, with 9 - 11 month orders mainly traded at 5800 - 5920 yuan/ton ex - factory. Export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable, with the negotiation range of mainstream East China factories at 765 - 790 US dollars/ton FOB Shanghai Port [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short - fiber and bottle - chip is both 1, indicating a slightly strong trend for the main contract's price fluctuations on the reporting day [2]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Corn Starch Daily Report [2] - Report date: September 10, 2025 [2][3] - Industry: Agricultural products (corn and corn starch) [1][2] Group 2: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - For corn, although the US corn price has declined, there is still potential for a rebound as the US corn yield may be revised downwards. Chinese tariffs on US corn and sorghum are relatively high, but foreign corn import profit is still significant. Domestic corn spot prices are expected to decline with the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, with North China corn possibly reaching 2200 yuan/ton and Heilongjiang corn below 2100 yuan/ton by the end of September [5][7] - For starch, the inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The starch price mainly depends on corn price and downstream inventory. With weak demand in the medium - to - long term, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. The short - term 01 starch futures contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [8] Group 4: Data Summary Futures Market - Corn futures: C2601 closed at 2170, down 18 (-0.83%); C2605 at 2240, down 14 (-0.63%); C2509 at 2285, unchanged. CS2601 closed at 2502, down 25 (-1.00%); CS2605 at 2588, down 20 (-0.77%); CS2509 at 2502, unchanged [3] - Volume and open interest: The volume of C2601 decreased by 6.09% to 199,387, and open interest decreased by 0.12% to 422,160. The volume of CS2601 increased by 33.94% to 23,644, and open interest increased by 4.45% to 58,145 [3] Spot and Basis - Corn spot: Today's quotes in different regions range from 2220 yuan in Qinggang to 2450 yuan in Guangdong ports. The basis of corn in different regions ranges from - 105 to 165 [3] - Starch spot: Today's quotes in different regions range from 2700 yuan in Longfeng to 2990 yuan in Yufeng. The basis of starch in different regions ranges from 112 to 402 [3] Spread - Corn inter - delivery spread: C01 - C05 was - 70, down 4; C05 - C09 was - 45, down 14; C09 - C01 was 115, up 18 [3] - Starch inter - delivery spread: CS01 - CS05 was - 86, down 5; CS05 - CS09 was 86, down 20; CS09 - CS01 was 0, up 25 [3] - Cross - variety spread: CS09 - C09 was 217, unchanged; CS01 - C01 was 332, down 7; CS05 - C05 was 348, down 6 [3] Group 5: Market Judgment Summary Corn - International factors: The US corn price has declined, but there is potential for a rebound as the yield may be revised downwards. Chinese tariffs on US corn and sorghum have been adjusted, and foreign corn import profit is high [5] - Domestic factors: Northern port prices are stable, and Northeast corn spot is strong, while North China corn spot has declined due to increased supply. Wheat prices in North China are weak, and wheat continues to substitute for corn. Domestic breeding demand is weak, and feed enterprise inventories are high. With imports, domestic auctions, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, the corn spot price is expected to decline [5][7] Starch - Supply - side factors: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and Shandong corn prices are stable. Corn starch inventory has decreased this week, with the current inventory at 122.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.9 million tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 3.5%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.2% [8] - Price - influencing factors: Starch prices mainly depend on corn prices and downstream inventory. By - product prices are strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. With weak demand in the medium - to - long term, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state [8] Group 6: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. It is recommended to wait and see for the 01 corn contract [10] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [11] Group 7: Corn Option Strategy - For enterprises with spot positions, it is recommended to close out short positions in corn call options or try short - term high - selling and rolling operations [14] Group 8: Relevant Attachments - The report includes six figures showing the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis of corn starch 01 contract, and the spread of corn starch 01 contract [16][17][18][20]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Palm oil has insufficient fundamental drivers, and risks of crude oil and macro - economic pullbacks should be guarded against [1] - Soybean oil is waiting for the South American sowing season and is in a state of oscillatory adjustment [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 9,408 yuan/ton with a 0.43% increase, and (night session) 9,440 yuan/ton with a 0.34% increase; soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,456 yuan/ton with a 0.55% increase, and (night session) 8,416 yuan/ton with a - 0.47% change; rapeseed oil's closing price (day session) was 9,950 yuan/ton with a 1.04% increase, and (night session) 9,737 yuan/ton with a - 2.14% change. CBOT soybean oil's closing price was 51.20 cents/pound with a - 1.41% change [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 10 to 3 lots, and open interest decreased by 1 to 1,225 lots; soybean oil's trading volume increased by 8 to 110 lots, and open interest decreased by 103 to 2,988 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume increased by 42 to 50 lots, and open interest remained unchanged at 5,121 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,380 yuan/ton with a 60 - yuan increase; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,730 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi) was 9,790 yuan/ton with a 90 - yuan increase; Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,105 dollars/ton with no change [1] - **Basis**: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 28 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 274 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was - 160 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 292 yuan/ton; between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 1,076 yuan/ton; palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 118 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 6 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 132 yuan/ton [1] b. Macro and Industry News - The seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in August increased by 22,000, lower than the market expectation of 75,000. The non - farm payrolls in June were revised down from 14,000 to - 13,000, and in July were revised up from 73,000 to 79,000. After the revision, the total non - farm payrolls in June and July were 21,000 lower than before [2][3] - OPEC+ representatives said that OPEC+ in principle agreed to increase production again in October, with an expected increase of about 137,000 barrels per day, starting to gradually cancel the next layer of 1.66 million barrels per day of production cuts [3] - The Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation period for imported rapeseed from Canada until March 9, 2026 [3] c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: There is no new fundamental driver, waiting for a pullback [1] - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has been suspended, undergoing a pullback and consolidation [1] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,344 yuan/ton (down 0.87% during the day, up 0.11% at night), soybean oil主力 at 8,442 yuan/ton (down 0.26% during the day, down 1.07% at night), and other futures prices also showed different changes [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures all decreased [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong remained unchanged, soybean oil increased by 10 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi decreased by 30 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 126 yuan/ton, soybean oil was 318 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was -104 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different futures contracts of various oils showed different changes [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **USDA Drought Monitoring Report**: As of the week ending August 26, about 11% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 9% the previous week and the same as last year [3] - **USDA Monthly Crushing Forecast**: The estimated soybean crushing volume in the US in July is expected to increase to 621.8 million short tons (2072 million bushels), a 5.1% increase from June and a 7.2% increase from July 2024. The estimated soybean oil inventory at the end of July is 1903 million pounds, a 0.5% increase from the end of June and a 5.2% decrease from July 2024 [4][6] - **Deral**: The rural economic department of Brazil's Paraná state expects the soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season to increase by 1% to about 5.8 million hectares, and the output may increase by 4% to about 22 million tons [6] - **South Mato Grosso, Brazil**: The sowing of the 2025/26 soybean crop will start on September 16 and may last until December 31 [6] - **SAGyP**: As of the week ending August 20, Argentine farmers sold 394,200 tons of 2024/25 soybeans and 118,900 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 29.8956 million tons and 789,600 tons respectively [7] - **Canada Statistics**: The estimated rapeseed output in Canada in 2025 will increase by 3.6% to 19.9 million tons, with different changes in yield per acre and harvested area in different provinces [8] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]