半导体&算力主线反弹
Search documents
类权益周报:反弹机会或在眼前-20251116
HUAXI Securities· 2025-11-16 11:48
Group 1 - The market is currently in a state of fluctuation, with attempts to break out of the range but lacking decisive upward momentum. The total A-share index closed at 6356.50 on November 14, down 0.47% from November 7, while convertible bonds rose by 0.52 during the same period [1][9] - The semiconductor and AI computing indices have been in continuous adjustment since October 9, with declines of 11.05% and 9.37% respectively as of November 14. This adjustment has led to a significant decrease in market congestion, indicating a potential rebound opportunity when favorable conditions arise [2][44] - The valuation of convertible bonds has seen significant stretching, with the valuation center for bonds at a parity of 80 yuan rising to 54.64%, an increase of 1.75 percentage points from November 7. This suggests that the market is currently valuing convertible bonds at historically high levels [23][27] Group 2 - The report highlights the need to focus on the semiconductor and AI computing sectors for potential rebound opportunities, as these sectors have shown significant adjustments and reduced congestion levels, making them more susceptible to upward movements when positive news emerges [2][44] - In a bull market environment, convertible bonds that do not undergo forced redemption tend to experience significant valuation recovery after the T+1 day. Conversely, those that do face forced redemption typically see an average decline of 3% on the T+1 day, but recovery is still possible in a bull market [3][61] - The report indicates that the current market environment is characterized by a search for new leading sectors, with consumer and new energy sectors being tested for strength. However, the sustainability of these sectors remains uncertain as they have not yet established a solid upward trend [1][16]