Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the price of thermal coal has shown a fluctuating upward trend across all segments this week, with prices rising at the port, production site, and international levels. In the short term, the resumption of work and production after the holiday, combined with low inventory levels, is expected to support a strong coal price. In the medium to long term, prices are anticipated to stabilize within a reasonable range due to supply constraints and resilient demand [1] - For coking coal, prices have shown a weak and stable differentiation this week, with port prices remaining flat week-on-week, production site prices declining slightly, and the FOB price of Australian hard coking coal decreasing marginally. Overall, the market activity has decreased ahead of the Spring Festival, leading to a weak supply-demand balance that keeps prices stable. In the medium to long term, prices are expected to gradually stabilize and recover as downstream production resumes and iron output increases, alongside expectations of reduced overseas supply [1] Group 2 - In the secondary market, the equity market showed mixed results, with the coal sector outperforming the index. The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 2.11 trillion yuan, reflecting a structural market where the technology growth sector led gains while the consumer sector experienced a pullback. The leading sectors were concentrated in information technology, benefiting from breakthroughs in AI large models and rising global semiconductor storage chip prices, which drove demand for computing infrastructure and AI terminals [2] - The coal sector outperformed the index, and there is a recommendation to continue focusing on high-quality coal stocks with abundant cash flow and high dividends [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the supply-demand structure for thermal coal is improving, leading to a stable increase in prices. Short-term recovery in production and low inventory levels are expected to support prices, while medium to long-term price adjustments are anticipated due to supply constraints and resilient demand [4][10][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share market shows mixed performance with an average daily trading volume of 2.11 trillion yuan. The coal sector outperformed the index, with coal prices rising by 1.78% during the week [5][19] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices are experiencing a steady upward trend, with prices at Qinhuangdao port increasing by 23 yuan/ton to 718 yuan/ton. The average price for Shanxi Datong thermal coal (Q5500) rose by 12 yuan/ton to 577 yuan/ton, while the price for Shaanxi Yulin thermal coal (Q5500) increased by 70 yuan/ton to 650 yuan/ton [11][13][16] - Supply constraints are evident as many private coal mines in major production areas are halting operations for the Spring Festival, leading to a decrease in production capacity utilization [10][12] Coking Coal - The coking coal market remains in a tight balance, with prices showing weak stability. The price for Shanxi Gujiao No. 2 coking coal remains stable at 1250 yuan/ton, while prices for other types of coking coal show slight variations [30][31] - The overall supply remains tight due to production halts in major areas and limited imports, while demand from steel mills is stable [29][30] Shipping Situation - The shipping market shows an increase in volume but a decrease in price. The shipping cost from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou is reported at 29.20 yuan/ton, down by 1.90 yuan [41] Industry News - The report highlights the establishment of new green coal mines in Xinjiang, with 11 new mines added in 2025. This initiative aims to promote high-quality development in the mining sector [43] - Huaihe Energy's coal sales reached 9.33 million tons in January 2026, reflecting a significant increase compared to the previous year [43]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the supply-demand structure for thermal coal is improving, leading to a stable increase in prices. Short-term recovery in production and low inventory levels are expected to support prices, while medium to long-term price adjustments are anticipated due to supply constraints and resilient demand [4][10][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share market shows mixed performance with an average daily trading volume of 2.11 trillion yuan. The coal sector outperformed the index, with coal prices rising by 1.78% to 3001.91 points [5][19] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices are experiencing a steady upward trend across various segments. The Qinhuangdao port price for Q5500 thermal coal increased by 23 yuan/ton to 718 yuan/ton, while the Shanxi Datong price rose by 12 yuan/ton to 577 yuan/ton. The overall market is expected to maintain a strong performance due to low inventory levels and recovering production post-holiday [11][13][16] Coking Coal - The coking coal market remains in a tight balance, with prices showing weak stability. The port price for main coking coal remains unchanged at 1660 yuan/ton, while the international price for Australian hard coking coal decreased slightly by 3 USD/ton. The market is expected to stabilize as production resumes after the holiday [29][30][31] Shipping Situation - The shipping market shows an increase in volume but a decrease in price. The number of vessels decreased to 87, with shipping rates for various routes showing mixed trends [41] Industry News - The report highlights significant developments in the coal industry, including the establishment of new green coal mines in Xinjiang and the performance of major coal companies like Huaihe Energy, which reported a coal sales volume of 9.33 million tons in January [43][44]