近日，复旦大学南土国际金融政策圆桌会第11期暨"如何看待当前宏观金融形势系列"收官之作在复旦经 济学院举行。会上京东集团副总裁、首席经济学家沈建光围绕2026年宏观经济展望与政策重点发表了观 点。羽扇观金工作室进行独家报道。 沈建光指出，2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，政策导向已在规划及中央经济工作会议中明确体现。 与"十四五"相比，"十五五"规划有六大关键调整，包括重提"以经济建设为中心"，更加强调消费、内循 环与科技产业协同发展，平衡发展与安全，推进城乡融合、统一大市场建设及财税体制改革等。他提 到，中国经济增速虽从过去的高位逐步回落至5%左右，但在越南、印度等新兴市场高增长的对比 下，"十五五"规划重申经济建设为中心，凸显保持合理增长速度的重要性。 在政策层面，沈建光重点解读了货币与财政政策的新动向。他表示，货币政策出现重大转变，首次 将"促进经济稳定发展、物价合理回升"纳入重要考量，打破了以往仅关注通胀上限的传统框架；财政政 策则强调保持必要的赤字、债务规模和支出总量，预计今年财政赤字率仍将维持在4%左右。扩大内需 方面，政策更侧重存量优化，通过"以旧换新"、释放服务业潜力、去除不合理限制等方式 ...

Core Viewpoint - Longchuan Technology (300604) has experienced significant stock price increases, with a cumulative rise of 44% over two trading days, attributed to strong market demand in the semiconductor equipment industry and positive earnings forecasts [2][3][7]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 23 and 24, Longchuan Technology's stock price surged by 20% each day, reaching a new high of 96.32 yuan per share, resulting in a market capitalization exceeding 600 billion yuan [2][3]. - The stock's performance is linked to the broader trend of rising stock prices among A-share companies in the semiconductor equipment sector [6]. Group 2: Shareholder Actions - Longchuan Investment, a significant shareholder, announced plans to reduce its stake by up to 1.7796% of the total share capital, amounting to a maximum of 11.22 million shares [5][6]. - The reduction was executed through block trades and centralized bidding, with shares sold at prices of 69 yuan, 80 yuan, and 96.32 yuan per share on different dates [6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Longchuan Technology's earnings forecast indicates a projected net profit of 827 million to 877 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 131.39% to 145.38% [7]. - The third quarter alone is expected to yield a net profit of 400 million to 450 million yuan, reflecting a substantial increase of 180.67% to 215.75% compared to the previous year [7]. - The company attributes this growth to sustained demand in the semiconductor industry, resulting in a significant increase in sales revenue and product orders [7].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment industry faces significant challenges and opportunities, with a focus on the rapid development strategies of companies like Zhongwei, which is crucial for achieving self-reliance and competitiveness in the global market. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The semiconductor micro-processing equipment industry is facing ten major challenges, including the need for integration of over 50 disciplines, achieving uniformity and reliability at the atomic level, and high barriers to market entry due to existing monopolies [1]. - Development and market entry of micro-processing equipment require substantial R&D funding, often 10 to 100 times the equipment price, and a complete supply chain of materials and components [1][2]. - The cyclical nature of the micro-processing equipment market is more volatile than that of micro-device industries, making it difficult to predict [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The semiconductor equipment market is characterized by fierce competition, which demands increased output and lower prices, posing greater challenges for new entrants [1]. - The investment required for advanced chip production lines is around $10 billion, with over 300 types of specialized equipment needed, and the expected annual output value of chips is approximately $2.5 billion [2][3]. - The market for semiconductor equipment is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on etching and thin-film deposition technologies as critical processes for 3D device manufacturing [3][4]. Group 3: Company Overview - Zhongwei has maintained an annual revenue growth rate exceeding 35% for 14 consecutive years, with a remarkable growth of 43.9% in the first half of 2025 [6][8]. - The company has a strong R&D focus, with expenditures significantly higher than the average for companies listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and has accelerated its product development cycle to under two years [8]. - Zhongwei has developed a range of advanced equipment, including 20 models of third-generation machines, and is expanding its market coverage in etching and thin-film deposition [5][8].

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to become a leading global semiconductor equipment company by 2035, focusing on scale, product competitiveness, and customer satisfaction [2] Company Overview - Founded in 2004 and listed on the STAR Market in 2019, the company has become a leading player in high-end micro-processing equipment in China [4] - The company's profitability has been continuously improving, making it a significant example of growth in the Chinese semiconductor equipment industry [4] Industry Development - The Chinese semiconductor equipment industry has seen rapid technological advancements, with domestic equipment gaining advantages in cost-performance, after-sales service, and customer proximity [6] - As the largest semiconductor consumer market globally, China's demand is driving the shift of global production capacity towards the country, creating opportunities for domestic equipment manufacturers [7] Research and Development - In 2024, the company's R&D investment is expected to increase by 94.31% to 2.452 billion yuan, accounting for 27.05% of its revenue [7] - The company has significantly reduced the time required to develop new products from 3-5 years to approximately 18 months, with mass production achievable within 6 to 12 months [7] Competitive Strategy - The company focuses on developing differentiated, proprietary high-end equipment products to avoid low-end competition and fulfill social responsibilities [9] - The company is currently working on over 20 new equipment projects, including advanced plasma etching devices [9] Mergers and Acquisitions - Since its listing in 2019, the company has invested in over 30 upstream and downstream semiconductor equipment companies, achieving over 5 billion yuan in floating profits [10] - The company has established partnerships with over 800 global suppliers, emphasizing the development and management of key component suppliers to enhance domestic supply chain control [10] Market Performance - As of May 28, the company's stock price was 170.93 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 106.8 billion yuan [11]