投资要点 ▌ 总量观点 10 月海外关注美国政府停摆、经济数据及 10 月降息预期。 预计中上旬美国政府延续关门，目前市场反应还算温和， 警惕持续关门引发的资产波动放大。国内：关注短期增量 对冲政策、中长期十五五风向和 10 月底 APEC 中美进展。A 股震荡整固后蓄势上行，关注政策催化、景气修复和降息 受益三大方向。 行业选择：关注三大方向：1）政策催化（十五五规划受益 的半导体、机器人、工业软件、军工等）；2）景气修复 （三季报盈利预期改善的 AI、创新药、新能源等）；3）降 息受益（联储预防式降息延续利好的有色、非银等）。 ▌ 本期金股组合： 电子：中微公司（688012.SH） 电子：复旦微电（688385.SH） 中小盘：思泉新材（301489.SZ） 电子：长飞光纤（601869.SH） 汽车：模塑科技（000700.SZ） 电力设备：美湖股份（603319.SH） 新能源：深圳新星（603978.SH） 有色：洛阳钼业（603993.SH） 有色：兴业银锡（000426.SZ） 化工：江山股份（600389.SH） 2025 年 10 月 08 日 十月策略和十大金股 —10 月十大金股 注： ...

2025年以来，AI芯片产业链景气度持续提升，半导体设备领域投资热度居高不下。据华泰证券统计，2025年第二季度全球半导体设备公司总收入同比增长24%，预计2025年全年全球半导体设备 具体来看，AI芯片对计算性能和功耗的高要求大幅提高了芯片设计和制造的复杂性，因此对高性能SoC测试机和存储测试机的需求显著增长。此外，HBM技术已成为AI计算的标配，其对应的COW 在此背景下，海外半导体设备市场受AI相关投资驱动实现高增，市场规模同比增长40%，其中测试机、封装设备等后道设备的增长尤为显著。 从历史数据来看，北方华创近年毛利率始终保持在40%以上，而芯源微除2023年毛利率达到42.53%，近年其余年份均在36-38%左右。2025年上半年，对芯源微实现并表后，北方华创营业成本 芯源微的主要产品包括涂胶显影设备等核心工艺装备，而北方华创的主要产品涵盖刻蚀、薄膜沉积、热处理、湿法和离子注入等核心工艺装备，二者产品布局具有显著互补性。虽然双方在短期内 第二，报告期内，北方华创研发费用率提升。前两年公司上半年的研发费用率均在11%以下，而2025年上半年，公司研发投入同比高增30.01%至29.15亿元，研发费用率 ...

Core Insights - The AI chip industry has seen a continuous increase in prosperity since 2025, with high investment levels in the semiconductor equipment sector. Global semiconductor equipment company revenues are expected to grow by 12% year-on-year in 2025, with a 24% increase in Q2 2025 compared to the previous year [1] - The demand for high-performance SoC testing machines and storage testing machines has significantly increased due to the high requirements for computing performance and power consumption in AI chips. Additionally, HBM technology has become standard for AI computing, driving demand for advanced packaging equipment [1] - The overseas semiconductor equipment market has experienced a 40% year-on-year growth driven by AI-related investments, particularly in testing and packaging equipment [1] - In contrast, the Chinese market saw a slight decline of 1% year-on-year in H1 2025, although the domestic semiconductor equipment localization rate increased by 6 percentage points to 21% [1] Company Performance - In H1 2025, there was a performance divergence among semiconductor equipment manufacturers. While nine front-end equipment companies reported revenue growth, some, including Jingce Electronics and Tsinghua Unigroup, saw significant declines in net profit [4] - Notably, Northern Huachuang's revenue and net profit in Q2 2025 grew by 22.5% and declined by 1.6%, respectively, indicating revenue growth without profit increase. In contrast, Zhongwei Company experienced simultaneous high growth in both revenue (51.3%) and net profit (46.8%) [4] Factors Affecting Performance - Northern Huachuang's weaker net profit growth in 2025 may be attributed to the acquisition of ChipSource, which was included in the consolidated financial statements from June 30, 2025. ChipSource's declining gross margin impacted Northern Huachuang's profitability [5] - Historically, Northern Huachuang maintained a gross margin above 40%, but after the acquisition, its gross margin decreased to 42.17%, down 3.33 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The increase in R&D expenses for Northern Huachuang, which rose by 30.01% to 2.915 billion yuan, also contributed to the decline in net profit margin. The R&D expense ratio increased to 12.87% in H1 2025 [6] - The company launched several new products, including ion implantation and electroplating equipment, and achieved significant sales in etching and thin film deposition equipment, indicating a comprehensive product line [6]

Core Insights - The report from Huazhong Securities indicates that Northern Huachuang achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.2 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 15% [1] - In Q2, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% [1] Semiconductor Equipment Business - The semiconductor equipment business experienced rapid growth, with core product lines achieving significant breakthroughs in scale [1] - In the first half of the year, the revenue from etching equipment exceeded 5 billion yuan, thin film deposition equipment exceeded 6.5 billion yuan, thermal processing equipment exceeded 1 billion yuan, and wet processing equipment exceeded 500 million yuan, highlighting the company's capabilities in large-scale production and delivery in key semiconductor equipment areas [1] Strategic Acquisitions - The company successfully completed the acquisition of ChipSource Micro, incorporating core equipment for coating and developing processes into its portfolio, further enhancing its integrated circuit equipment product line and process coverage [1] Competitive Positioning - Through resource integration in market, technology, and supply chain areas, the company effectively improved its overall competitiveness in the integrated circuit equipment market, further solidifying its platform advantages [1] Innovation and Future Growth - The company has achieved substantial results in research and innovation, with a new product matrix that promises to drive future growth [1]

北方华创 20250924 摘要 2025 年半导体设备指数上涨 72%，主要受 AR 算力需求和国产光刻机 突破推动，并受益于成熟制程向先进制程转移。北方华创作为龙头，市 值虽仅为应用材料的 30%，但内生外延发展潜力巨大。 北方华创营收复合增速近五年达 40%，归母净利润复合增速高达 62%。2025 年上半年半导体设备营收占比 92%，达 161 亿元，同比 增长 30%；净利润 32 亿元，同比增长 15%。 公司积极进行股权激励，虽短期影响归母净利润，但长远来看有利于增 强研发实力和长期竞争力。预计 2025 年 10 月底前落地新的股权激励 计划。 北方华创在刻蚀、薄膜沉积、热处理、湿法等设备领域全面布局，并通 过收购芯源微完善在涂胶显影、清洗、键合等领域的布局，工艺覆盖度 达 60%。 预计 2026 年国内先进制程资本开支将大幅提升，晶圆厂扩产确定性强。 凭借高工艺覆盖度和成套化供给能力，北方华创市占率有望进一步提升。 Q&A 半导体设备行业的整体发展趋势是什么？ 半导体设备行业的发展主要受益于两个大的逻辑。首先是算力需求的增长，特 别是 AR 算力的时代需求，这带动了芯片等整体需求超出市场预 ...

Summary of Semiconductor Equipment Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The semiconductor equipment industry is experiencing accelerated self-sufficiency in China due to geopolitical tensions and licensing restrictions, making it a key area for investment focus [1][2][3] - The global semiconductor equipment market exceeds $100 billion, with key segments including photolithography, thin film deposition, etching, metrology, cleaning, and stripping [4] Key Points and Arguments - **Photolithography**: This is the most critical subfield within semiconductor equipment. China is currently in a breakthrough phase from 0 to 1, but high-end DUV and EUV photolithography machines are blocked from import due to U.S. sanctions, creating urgent domestic replacement demand [1][5][10] - **Thin Film Deposition**: Domestic companies like Tuojing Technology, Huachuang, and Zhongwei have achieved high localization rates in CVD, PVD, and ALD technologies, indicating significant progress in self-sufficiency [1][6] - **Etching Technology**: Companies such as Zhongwei and Huachuang have made notable advancements in CCP and ICP etching technologies, achieving a high level of self-sufficiency [1][7] - **Metrology Equipment**: The domestic localization rate is low (below 15%), with companies like Zhongke Feimeasure and Jingce Electronics making some breakthroughs, but large-scale production will take time [1][8] - **Back-end Testing and Sorting Equipment**: Companies like Changchuan Technology and Jinhai Tong have made significant progress and show strong profitability in this area [1][9] Market Catalysts - The establishment of Changjiang Storage's third phase marks a new stage in capacity expansion, positively impacting future capital expenditures [3] - The revocation of certain licenses for wafer fabs in China by the U.S. has increased the difficulty for foreign companies to produce chips in China, further driving the need for domestic semiconductor equipment and materials [3] Demand Dynamics - **Advanced Logic and Storage Expansion**: Domestic wafer foundries are investing steadily in mature processes, while demand for advanced processes, particularly AI computing chips, is high but supply is insufficient [11][12] - **Storage Sector**: The expansion in NAND and DRAM is robust, with Changxin Storage's third phase expected to generate hundreds of billions of RMB in domestic equipment demand. The urgent need for DRAM, especially HBM, will significantly boost related packaging production [13] Investment Opportunities - Focus on platform companies (e.g., Beifang Huachuang, Zhongwei) and specialized companies (e.g., Zhongke Feimeasure, Jingce Electronics) as well as photolithography-related enterprises [2][15] - The slow progress in the localization of semiconductor equipment components presents potential investment opportunities, especially as AI technology drives industry growth [16] Characteristics of Semiconductor Equipment Components Market - The market for semiconductor equipment components is characterized by small batch sizes, diverse products, customization, and variability. Companies with expansion potential and platform logic are expected to grow into quality enterprises [17] Specific Types of Components to Watch - Recommended focus on components such as pipelines, valves, ceramic parts, machined parts, and spray heads, as well as photolithography-related components, which may present investment opportunities [18]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that three technological trends will significantly enhance the usage and importance of etching equipment: (1) adoption of multiple patterning in photolithography, (2) demand for 3D stacked storage and near-memory computing, and (3) upgrades in underlying transistor structures [1][2]. Group 1: Multiple Patterning - The current EUV lithography technology is limited, making DUV multiple patterning a key strategy for domestic breakthroughs, leading to a substantial increase in the usage of etching equipment [3]. - The DUV multiple patterning method allows for continued iteration down to 3nm, with the etching equipment usage in production lines increasing up to four times compared to the EUV method [3]. Group 2: 3D Stacking Demand - The increase in storage layers for 3D NAND and DRAM is driving exponential growth in the demand for etching equipment, with the usage share rising from 35% to 48% as layers increase from 32 to 128 [4]. - The need for higher aspect ratio etching equipment is also growing, with current mainstream 3D NAND using a 60:1 aspect ratio, and future technologies expected to reach 90:1 for higher layer counts [4]. - TSV (Through-Silicon Via) processes, essential for 3D expansion in packaging, require etching and filling equipment, which constitutes nearly 70% of the TSV process, further increasing demand for etching equipment [4]. Group 3: GAA Transistor - The introduction of GAAFET technology, which will replace FinFET, is expected to increase the etching process steps from 5 to 9, leading to a rise in the share of etching equipment from 20% to 35% in advanced processes [5]. - The value of individual etching equipment is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year, with new demands for high-selectivity SiGe isotropic etching processes emerging, particularly through Atomic Layer Etching (ALE) methods [5].

Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor equipment market is experiencing unprecedented turbulence and adjustment, with a projected market size of $110.8 billion in 2025, reflecting a 6.2% year-on-year growth, and expected to reach $122.1 billion in 2026, growing by 10.2% [1] Demand and Policy: Dual Shift - The complexity of the current market is primarily due to the dual shift in demand rhythm and policy barriers, particularly in China, which was the largest buyer of semiconductor equipment during 2023-2024 [2] - After a period of intensive equipment procurement, the industry has entered a new cycle where yield ramp-up and capacity utilization are the main themes, leading to a natural slowdown in demand [2] - TechInsights predicts a 6% year-on-year decline in China's equipment purchases for 2025, while SEMI's estimate is as high as 24% [2] - On the policy side, stricter export approvals have slowed down shipments to China, with the U.S. further tightening export restrictions by the end of 2024 [2] Impact on Suppliers - The dual constraints of demand and policy have led to a decline in order visibility and rhythm for semiconductor equipment suppliers in China, with approval timelines becoming a critical risk factor for revenue recognition [3] International Equipment Manufacturers: The Other Side of Growth - Applied Materials (AMAT) reported a revenue of $7.32 billion for Q3 FY2025, an 8% year-on-year increase, but projected a decline to $6.7 billion in Q4 due to a drop in sales in China, which accounted for 35% of its revenue [4] - Tokyo Electron (TEL) anticipates a -5% growth rate in the front-end equipment market for FY2026, primarily due to reduced investments from emerging Chinese semiconductor manufacturers [5] - ASML continues to perform well but has expressed caution regarding 2026 due to potential tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties affecting North American clients [6] Domestic Equipment Manufacturers: Revenue Growth - In contrast to international firms, China's semiconductor equipment industry showed robust recovery in H1 2025, with major listed companies achieving revenue growth of 20% to 50% [9] - North Huachuang and Zhongwei contributed over $21 billion in revenue, dominating the market share [9] - North Huachuang's revenue reached $16.14 billion, a 29.51% increase, while Zhongwei's revenue was $4.96 billion, growing by 43.88% [9] Profitability Trends - The industry shows significant profit divergence, with companies like Shengmei Shanghai and Changchuan Technology experiencing explosive profit growth due to strong demand in AI and advanced packaging [10] - Shengmei Shanghai's revenue was $3.27 billion, up 35.83%, with net profit increasing by 56.99% [10] - Changchuan Technology's revenue reached $2.17 billion, a 41.80% increase, with net profit soaring by 98.73% [12] Emerging Growth Engines - New demand growth in emerging fields is offsetting the slowdown in the Chinese market, with companies like KLA focusing on process control and inspection equipment showing resilience [6] - Lam Research has seen strong non-China technical spending driven by AI and HBM, although market caution remains regarding the sustainability of Chinese orders [7] Conclusion - The semiconductor equipment market in 2025 presents both challenges and opportunities, with the long-term growth trend remaining solid, projected to reach approximately $1 trillion by 2030 [19]

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 9 月 23 日 主要商品及外汇价格 今日焦点 | 中微公司 | | 688012 CH | | --- | --- | --- | | 刻蚀设备优势明显，产品进一步多元化，首予 | 评级: | 买入 | | 买入 | | | | 收盘价: 人民币 254.00 | 目标价: 人民币 280.00 | 潜在涨幅: +10.2% | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA | Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com | | 存储器电路结构复杂拉动刻蚀/沉积需求：此前，我们曾在主题报告和北 方华创首次覆盖报告中阐述逻辑电路制程升级会增加刻蚀和沉积设备需 求，本文中，我们深度剖析 3D NAND 的制作过程，随着 3D NAND 的堆 叠层数增加，沉积和刻蚀步骤也将相应增加，对刻蚀的深宽比要求也在 提高。3D NAND 对光刻设备需求较低，而对刻蚀设备需求则较高，这正 是中微公司擅长的领域。 | | | 三个月 | 年初至 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 今升跌 | | 布兰特 | 66.69 | -13.38 | - ...

Core Insights - The article highlights three key technological trends that are expected to drive the demand and importance of etching equipment: the adoption of multi-patterning lithography, the need for 3D stacked storage and near-memory computing, and upgrades in underlying transistor structures [1] Industry Trends - The semiconductor equipment industry is anticipated to experience a new growth phase driven by downstream capacity expansion in the short term [1] - There is a clear direction towards domestic production of semiconductor equipment in the long term [1] Investment Opportunities - It is recommended to pay attention to domestic etching equipment manufacturers as well as related supporting equipment and component companies [1]