Core Insights - The airline industry is experiencing high passenger load factors and a slowdown in capacity growth, with a focus on increasing international routes [1][4] - Domestic flight turnover has shown steady growth, while international turnover has significantly recovered to pre-pandemic levels [1][4] - Average ticket prices have seen a narrowing decline, indicating potential improvements in revenue per seat for airlines [2][5] Supply and Demand - The industry passenger load factor remains high, with a year-on-year capacity growth slowdown. As of July 2025, the industry’s ASK and RPK increased by 5.5% and 6.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a load factor of 84.5%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Domestic flight turnover increased by 3.9% year-on-year, while international and regional flights have returned to 100.3% of 2019 levels [1] Ticket Pricing - Average ticket prices for the year-to-date (as of September 15, 2025) are 864 RMB, down 8.8% year-on-year. The average ticket price during the summer travel period in July and August fell by 8.8% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively, with a narrowing decline in August [2] Fuel and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation fuel in Q3 decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with the domestic aviation fuel price dropping to 5545 RMB per ton in September, down 7.6% year-on-year [3] - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar, with the exchange rate moving from 7.1884 RMB at the end of 2024 to 7.1027 RMB by September 16, 2025 [3] Operational Performance - From January to August 2025, most airlines saw slight increases in domestic capacity, with Spring Airlines showing a growth rate of 4.7%. The passenger load factor for major airlines has shown significant year-on-year increases, with Eastern Airlines up by 3.5 percentage points [4] - In August, Air China had the highest net increase in aircraft, adding six planes, while other airlines also reported net increases [4] Investment Recommendations - The industry is expected to see improvements in unit revenue due to high passenger load factors and narrowing ticket price declines. The implementation of measures to reduce price competition may further support ticket price recovery [5] - Airlines such as China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines are recommended for investment focus [5]