单头增益战略

Search documents
牧原股份(002714):2025年中期策略会速递:增出栏+降成本+国际化稳步推进
HTSC· 2025-06-05 01:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 51.30 [7][8]. Core Views - The company has shown a significant year-on-year increase in pig output, with April's output reaching 8.11 million heads, a 49% increase year-on-year. The cumulative output from January to April was 30.77 million heads, up 43% year-on-year. The sales revenue for the same period was approximately RMB 48.5 billion, reflecting a 39% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company's breeding costs have improved significantly, with the complete cost per kilogram dropping to RMB 12.4 in April, down approximately RMB 0.7 from the beginning of the year. The target for the full year is set at RMB 12 per kilogram, with a clear path for further cost reduction [2][3]. - The company is advancing its internationalization strategy by submitting an application for H-share issuance, which is expected to enhance its global presence and investor relations. The company emphasizes sustainable cash dividends and plans to reduce its overall debt by around RMB 10 billion this year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Production and Cost Management - The company has achieved a high growth rate in pig output, with a clear strategy for reducing breeding costs and enhancing the value of each pig through improved production techniques [2][3]. Internationalization and Investor Relations - The submission of the H-share issuance application marks a significant step in the company's global strategy, aiming to reshape its investment value and expand its global business footprint [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts for the company, projecting net profits of RMB 19.73 billion, RMB 18.26 billion, and RMB 47.17 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The target price is set at RMB 51.30, based on a price-to-book ratio of 3.3x for 2025 [4][6].