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 通胀稳定 就业疲软 机构加大美联储降息力度押注
 Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-09-12 20:21
 Core Viewpoint - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate cuts in the upcoming meetings, with a focus on the number and magnitude of cuts by the end of the year [1][2][3]   Economic Indicators - The latest inflation data shows that the U.S. August CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly above the previous value of 2.7%, while the core CPI remained stable at 3.1% [1][2] - Employment data indicates a weak job market, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly lower than the revised July figure of 79,000 and market expectations [2][3]   Federal Reserve's Actions - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points in both September and October, with further cuts dependent on employment data in December [1][3] - The expectation of rate cuts is reinforced by stable inflation and weak employment data, which may prompt the Fed to act to stimulate the job market [2][3]   Asset Market Outlook - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to inject liquidity into the market, benefiting assets like U.S. stocks and gold [4][5] - U.S. stock indices reached historical highs, driven by expectations of rate cuts, although valuations are considered relatively high, limiting short-term upside potential [4] - Gold is expected to benefit from the rate cut expectations, with a projected upward trend in prices due to the combination of inflation risks and declining real interest rates [5]