证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 黄金：长期叙事再强化。我们预期至 2025 年底，全年金价维持 4000- 4200 美元/盎司震荡，明年 1-2 月或再次启动上涨，全年保持短时间快 涨、长时间震荡的走势。预计 2026 年流动性宽松后黄金将继续维持上 涨趋势。 A 股：进入"创新牛"的下一阶段。通胀回升带动基本面盈利修复， 流动性驱动估值提升，产业趋势加持下，盈利估值双向提升，外资、 机构和个人投资者资金持续入市。结构性牛市延续，风格有望从科技 向核心制造业和资源品扩散，市场有望进入"创新牛"下一阶段，行 业配置上以科技为主线，全球安全（军工、供应链）、弱美元（大宗商 品）、通胀抬升（PPI 反内卷新能源链和 CPI 服务消费新消费链）为支 线交替引领指数上行。 美股：产业驱动延续新高。受益于宏观环境与 AI 产业叙事的多重利 好，美股有望再次创造新高点。从盈利预期来看，25Q3 以来市场对 2025、2026 年标普 500 盈利预期已持续上修、偏离季节性低迷；但与 此同时，从估值视角来看，当前已处于高位的估值水平与美股对 AI 泡 沫叙事较强的依赖度意味着，未来估值的进一步向上易带动波动率同 步走 ...

Group 1 - The Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. leads to a market closure and early market close, impacting trading activity and liquidity [1][3] - The holiday period serves as a "cooling-off" phase for long-term investors, allowing them to reassess their portfolios without the pressure of short-term market fluctuations [3][4] - The day after Thanksgiving, known as "Black Friday," marks the beginning of the holiday shopping season and serves as an indicator for the retail industry, but should not be overanalyzed by long-term investors [4] Group 2 - Long-term investment success relies on understanding market trends and underlying logic rather than reacting to short-term market movements [3][4] - Investors are encouraged to use the Thanksgiving break to reflect on their holdings and ensure they align with their original long-term investment strategies [3]

Group 1 - The US financial market experienced a rare observation period during the Thanksgiving holiday, revealing the true "risk appetite structure" globally [2] - A-shares did not follow the overnight rise of US stocks, closing mixed, while gold slightly declined and briefly fell below $4150 [2] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose above 4%, indicating a significant market shift, while Bitcoin surpassed 91,000 yuan [2] Group 2 - The MSCI global index previously dropped nearly 4%, but the decline has now reduced to 0.4%, indicating a recovery of previously pessimistic sentiment [2] - The market is currently pricing in a rate cut in December and three cuts next year, which could lead to volatility if economic data does not align with these expectations [2] - The real risk lies not in whether the Fed will cut rates, but in whether it will meet the market's "pricing fantasy" [2] Group 3 - The upcoming Fed meeting on December 10 is expected to have significant implications for both short-term and long-term market dynamics [4] - A critical stock in China has shown signs of change, coinciding with an unusual report released by Goldman Sachs [4] - Multiple reports from Wall Street are analyzing A-shares, US stocks, and gold, questioning the sustainability of the US bull market and the narrative surrounding A-shares [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities suggests a strategic and tactical bullish outlook on A-share assets, driven by the anticipated rise of new economic drivers and forces in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, particularly in advanced manufacturing and technology [2][3] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of investing in China, highlighting that each era has its core assets that reflect the macroeconomic environment, with the upcoming period expected to attract global resources and create a bull market in equities [2] - The focus is on four main investment themes: "All in AI, new productive forces, self-control, and going global" [1][2] Group 2: Asset Allocation - A-shares are viewed positively, with a focus on a "dumbbell strategy" where investments are concentrated at both ends: technology growth and dividend stocks, while rotating through mid-range assets [3] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including technology related to self-control and domestic substitution, as well as long-duration low-yield assets like dividend stocks [3] Group 3: Market Conditions - The domestic bond market is expected to experience fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to range between 1.5% and 1.9% due to various economic factors [4] - In the U.S. market, the report anticipates volatility in U.S. stocks, with a downward trend in U.S. Treasury yields and a weakening dollar, influenced by AI narratives and fiscal policies [5][6] Group 4: Commodity Outlook - The report notes a broad presence of bullish options in commodities, with precious metals like gold and silver benefiting from trends such as "de-dollarization" and "debt monetization" [6] - Specific commodities such as copper, aluminum, and rare earths are expected to gain from energy transition and technological advancements, as well as geopolitical tensions [6]

23:30，公布的数据显示，美国11月达拉斯联储制造业指数低于所有经济学家预期（加大降息概率） ——美股涨势进一步扩大。 01:41，特朗普发帖，进行了非常好的通话，明年4月份访华——美股巩固涨势。 03:55，"新美联储通讯社"发文，旧金山联储主席戴利支撑降息——美股确认涨势，未出现回吐涨幅的 情况。 周一的关键词只有一个：救市。 以下均为北京时间： 20:40，美股开盘前，美联储理事沃勒便呼吁12月降息，然后逐次会议作决定——该消息令美股开盘上 涨。 22:31，美股刚一开盘，传出中美通话的消息——美股扩大涨势。 来源：华尔街情报圈 美联储集体暗示：我们会救你。 全球市场迎来狂欢，美股、黄金、美债、原油、比特币这些资产全部上涨，而且不是小涨。 第一，这是一次典型、纯情绪性的"反身性反弹"。正如我们今早在《黄金策略》中所言：每10美元的涨 幅，有4美元是情绪因素（甚至可以更高）。这种情况，将会加剧市场"大起、大落"的风险。 第二，这波反弹的持续性非常看"数据是否继续变差"。是的——数据越差，反而越容易撑住短线行情。 这就是"后周期反逻辑"。 我们最担心的是：市场对美联储的依赖越来越重，而真正的问题并未解决。 ...

来源：华尔街情报圈 美联储集体暗示：我们会救你。 全球市场迎来狂欢，美股、黄金、美债、原油、比特币这些资产全部上涨，而且不是小涨。 周一的关键词只有一个：救市。 以下均为北京时间： 20:40，美股开盘前，美联储理事沃勒便呼吁12月降息，然后逐次会议作决定——该消息令美股开盘上 涨。 22:31，美股刚一开盘，传出中美通话的消息——美股扩大涨势。 23:30，公布的数据显示，美国11月达拉斯联储制造业指数低于所有经济学家预期（加大降息概率） ——美股涨势进一步扩大。 01:41，特朗普发帖，进行了非常好的通话，明年4月份访华——美股巩固涨势。 第一，这是一次典型、纯情绪性的"反身性反弹"。正如我们今早在《黄金策略》中所言：每10美元的涨 幅，有4美元是情绪因素（甚至可以更高）。这种情况，将会加剧市场"大起、大落"的风险。 第二，这波反弹的持续性非常看"数据是否继续变差"。是的——数据越差，反而越容易撑住短线行情。 这就是"后周期反逻辑"。 我们最担心的是：市场对美联储的依赖越来越重，而真正的问题并未解决。市场越来越像一个被安抚过 度的孩子：一哭，就给糖；一跌，就给降息预期（12月降息概率已超80%）。问题是糖 ...

Group 1: Global Market Overview - Recent global market turmoil is attributed to multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's mixed signals on interest rate cuts, leading to increased volatility across asset classes [3][4][5] - Concerns over AI sector sustainability and geopolitical tensions have also contributed to the decline in various asset prices, particularly in the tech sector [4][5][6] Group 2: A-shares and H-shares Outlook - The current adjustments in A-shares and H-shares are seen as emotional disturbances rather than fundamental changes, with expectations for policy support and foreign capital inflow remaining positive [6][7] - Analysts maintain a long-term optimistic view on A-shares and H-shares, anticipating a healthy recovery despite potential short-term volatility [6][7][8] Group 3: Gold Market Analysis - The outlook for gold remains positive due to anticipated global monetary expansion, although its risk-return profile may decline as economic conditions stabilize [9][10] - Analysts highlight that gold serves as a hedge against rising debt levels and geopolitical risks, reinforcing its long-term investment appeal [10][11] Group 4: Oil Market Projections - The oil market is expected to experience a range-bound trading pattern, with prices projected between $60 and $70 per barrel due to weak demand and OPEC's production strategies [14][15] - Geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics will continue to influence oil prices, with a cautious outlook for significant price increases [15][16] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - A-shares are viewed as having superior investment value, with a focus on sectors like technology and high-end manufacturing, while also considering defensive positions in high-dividend stocks [16][17] - Analysts suggest that the current market environment favors a diversified approach, balancing risk and return across various asset classes [17][18] Group 6: Risks to Monitor - Key risks include potential economic data surprises from the U.S. and geopolitical developments that could impact market sentiment and liquidity [18][19] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has not alleviated concerns over liquidity, and ongoing uncertainties in economic performance may affect global asset markets [19][20]

有没有发现一个铁律——威廉姆斯一讲话，美股、美元、黄金就集体躁动！这位低调的技术官员，为啥能让全球资本连夜"竖起耳朵"？ 先看他的"王炸身份"！纽约联储主席的三重特权，直接拿捏市场命脉： 1. 永久投票权！FOMC会议上每一票都定生死，没有任期限制； 2. 首席智囊！会议议程、经济预测全由他牵头拟定； 3. 政策执行人！全球最大的债券交易台就在他麾下，说操作就操作！ 这种"又定规则又下场"的角色，他的话能不算数吗？ 更绝的是他的"讲话杀伤力"！去年3月一句"加息未伤经济"，美股直接暴涨2% ；今年1月提了句"降息不必太急"，三大指数当场翻绿！这影响力，你见过第 二个？ 1. 听懂弦外之音！他说"依赖数据"=政策要转向，这话你get到了吗？ 帮主20年经验：美联储讲话从不是废话！威廉姆斯的每句软话里都藏着硬逻辑，读透他的潜台词，比死磕财报管用100倍！你有没有吃过他讲话的亏？下次 他发言，你会提前布局吗？ 2. 盯紧讲话场景！国会听证会的表态，比学术论坛重要10倍； 3. 抓准48小时窗口！他发言后两天内，正是布局黄金、美股的关键期！ 评论区聊聊你的操作，关注帮主郑重，用政策望远镜看透市场潮汐，投资不踩坑！ 想 ...

来源：华夏时报 各方都在争夺美元资产时，12月美联储降息预期大减，全球市场美元存款、美元PE、美元理财、美元 基金等都面临同一个难题：如何调整投资策略避免收益缩水。 北京时间11月20日，美国劳工统计局宣布原定于12月5日发布的11月就业报告，将推迟至12月16日发 布，届时将包含该机构收集到的部分10月份数据；同日，美国9月季调后的非农数据也发布为11.9万 人，大大超过预期的5万人，失业率基本维持持平保持在4.3%—4.4%。美国系列重磅数据的公布，让市 场几乎放弃对12月美联储降息的押注。与此同时，在人民币汇率保持稳健态势之际，11月14日，人民币 兑美元汇率最高涨至7.09附近，也使得离岸银行间市场美元存款几乎未作调整，进一步阻止了美元存款 的流出。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，从年度走势来看，美元兑人民币整体走出一个单边下跌的形态。年 初至今以1美元兑7.27人民币（离岸价）开局，随后美国连续暂停降息，美元曾呈现强势，离岸人民币 的低点在今年4月8日产生，一度触及1美元兑7.42879人民币，不过随后美联储降息的态势越来越明确， 美元高位跳水，出现明显下跌，人民币走强。 王青判断，趋势仍会延续， ...

Market Overview - Gold experienced significant volatility, with fluctuations around the $4100 mark, ultimately dipping below $4000 [1][12] - The market saw a rapid rise and fall, with a notable $70 range of movement, indicating high trading activity [1] Recent Influences - The Bank of Japan's aggressive monetary policy and unexpected stimulus measures led to a sharp decline in the yen and a strengthening dollar, contributing to gold's price drop [13] - The delayed release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data and rising unemployment rates created mixed signals in the market, further complicating gold's performance [13][15] Upcoming Indicators - The upcoming U.S. November PMI is anticipated to provide insights into the strength of the U.S. economy, which could impact stock and bond markets, as well as the dollar and gold prices [14] - The Federal Reserve's ongoing policy discussions and mixed signals regarding inflation and labor market conditions are expected to create further market uncertainty [14][16] Trading Strategy - Current trading strategies suggest monitoring key resistance levels at $4110 and $4064 for potential short positions, while looking for long opportunities around $1965 and $4000 [12] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of entry and exit points in trading, with a focus on maintaining low risk while maximizing profit potential [14]